"Feminist" or "Profeminist"   
  • Taken from our Facebook page...

    Richard Twine
    Not a Profeminist but a feminist...

    what do you think of the distinction?

    i think the argument that men should identify as pro-feminist rather than feminist stems from the notion of what academics call epistemic privilege i.e. in this case, men ought not identify as feminists as they cannot know how it is to experience oppression 'as a woman'.

    however i think this is problematic because it
    a) ignores the way in which patriarchy is also a system that includes relations of power between men, most obviously in the oppression of 'feminised' men.
    b) overstates the assumption that 'men' cannot empathise and learn about the experiential knowledge of 'women' (even though to homogenise this would be to ignore 30 years of feminist scholarship)
    c) overstates the value of separatism as a means to radical coalition building
    d) risks homogenising 'men'
    March 23 at 2:43pm · Mark as Irrelevant · Report · Delete Post
  • London Profeminist Hi! As you may already know there are many and different opinions on the issue of this distinction. If we wanted to give a reason for our choice, we would say that the LPMG chooses to identify itself as ‘pro-feminist’ instead of ‘feminist’ cause ‘we don’t need and we don’t want to steal the word from the feminist movement’. This is the opinion of many feminists also and we respect that. Of course, the feminist (or anti-sexist, anti-patriarchist) struggle aims to liberate men also from patriarchy and this is very much where our words and actions tend to contribute. However, it is always good to remind people that the structural inequalities and hierarchies still exist and that being a man in a patriarchal society is in no way the same with being a woman (most of all, in terms of experiences). Men can empathize with let’s say the victims of patriarchy, however we should not ever forget that this empathy is a choice (while oppression isn’t) that is made by men who nevertheless still preserve their privileges in this society.

    Truly, you see a methodological problem there (eg. homogenizing men) since 30 years of feminist scholarship (and most importantly feminist struggles) were enough to change the way some men think about their masculinities. However let’s not forget the previous 2,000 years or so of massive gender oppression… To empathize, after all, does not mean to say that we have the same experiences as women have. It does not mean to try to eliminate the difference among us and women. It is not a matter of competition of victimhood; it is a matter of respect and giving space to the ‘other’.

    And a last thing: the risk of homogenizing all (wo)men is visible in all kinds of gender politics, however many times this is a risk someone must take in order to ‘do politics’ and – let’s say – make a specific demand, no matter how much the academics dislike it. Generalization and homogenization are often strategic steps of this kind of politics and as far as I am concerned they are not false since patriarchy itself is a great, big, awful and violent generalization.

    From LPMG
    4 minutes ago · Edit Post · Delete Post
  • London Profeminist FROM DAVE in the LPMG (but not necessarily representing the views of LPMG!!!)...

    "We are certainly not a 'separatist' group: in the context of gender politics, separatism means primarily women's groups who literally try to have nothing whatever to do with men in their lives. That would make no sense whatever for a pro-feminist men's group.

    Although there is nowadays a greater emphasis in gender politics on men and women working together and on try to abolish gender roles, collapsing the distinctions too quickly is not helpful, and any decision to do so must rest with women. In my view the postmodern and queer emphasis on dismantling gender identities runs many risks. One is that if the people concerned have not done the work on themselves (and that work is big) it all becomes a pretence. A second risk, which I have often observed happening is that these politics collapse into well-meaning (radical) liberalism."


    Please feel free to join in the discussion here or on our Facebook page, or both!

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          Feminism in London 2009   
The second Feminism in London conference held last Saturday (October 10th) at Conway Hall was a great success. As the London Pro-feminist Men's Group we felt very privileged to be able to take part, contribute and support the second LFN conference this year.

We took part in the conference in two main ways as a group. Firstly we supported the LFN conference, by providing childcare and secondly we contributed to the conference by facilitating a workshop entitled "What are the issues for pro-feminist men?".

We had two aims whilst we created the workshop, which were (1) to give a practical introduction to what we do in the London Pro-feminist Men's Group and (2) to get feedback from both men and women on issues for pro-feminist men and what we should / should not do.

By this we hoped to start answering the question posed in the workshop about the connection between men's life issues and the struggle for feminism. In the next part I will outline our aims for the workshop in more detail.

Ad 1.) In the introduction of the workshop we focused on what we do in our group, the essence of which is the traditional feminist practice of consciousness-raising, based on the idea that the personal is political. With men – since we are part of the oppressor group - this is a tricky process. We have to keep our attention on the ways that we are sexist, but making us feel bad about ourselves will not be helpful. Also, it is fairly easy to deal with the ways in which we are consciously sexist, but there are many unconscious ways in which we are sexist. These are often ways of being into which men are socialised from very early age. To change this conscious and unconscious sexism requires sustained work on oneself.

Obviously being a man comes with lots of advantages. We as men generally get what we want and can get away with pretty much everything, We have the luxury to be selfish, we earn more money, we are not expected to bother about our appearance or bother about childcare. At some point, when one looks at oneself and wider society though, it has to become clear that the way we traditionally act as men is not good for society on the whole and that in the long run it is also not good for us. In the end, one has to come to the conclusion that the ways we are treated as boys and the roles we are taught to play as men are not good and that if we continue to act, think and behave in sexist ways, they will cause us major difficulties in our lives - even as they give us dominant positions in society and power over women.


With that background, we felt it should be fairly clear why it is useful for men to meet separately: (i) in order to understand how we have been socialised as men, we need to share common life experiences; (ii) meeting without women is important in order to create the safety to be able to admit sexist behaviors (iii) men need to learn to create a real relationships with and get support from each other, rather than relying on women for emotional support.

Ad 2.) In the second part of the workshop we split into two groups - one female and one male. During the preparations for the workshop we had decided that we would facilitate the discussion in the men’s group and would not prescribe what the women would discuss. We had decided to do it like that, because we – as men – did not want to prescribe women what they should or should not talk about in a feminist environment. We did however encourage the women to talk about what it is they would / would not want from pro-feminist men.

In the end, two of us from the LPMG (London Pro-feminist Men’s Group) facilitated the men’s discussion, whilst LFN volunteer Jan volunteered on the spot to lead the women’s group discussion.


We started our discussion with a round in which we gave our names and an example of being sexist recently. Issues that came up were issues such as:

- interrupting women when they’re talking
- not challenging sexist jokes and comments in a group setting
- not listening to women when they give us feedback – perceiving it as nagging
- stereotyping women
- seeing women as objects

We then talked about how often one of us had organized childcare in the past year, if we had noticed how often man / women had talked in group settings or how often we’d felt fearful when we’d approached a stranger of the opposite sex in the street.

Not surprisingly none of us had organized childcare or felt fearful when approaching a stranger of the opposite sex in the street. We did feel however that men tend to speak more in mixed groups when compared to women. We used this exercise to underline the fact that women’s and men’s lives are very different and how different our positions in life are. Maybe in a way how harder and less safe it must feel to be a woman and how privileged we men are in our daily lives.

Due to time constraints we unfortunately did not get much chance to discuss how socialisation into boyhood / manhood had felt for us, which was what we’d originally planned to do. We did however shortly touch on the subject of pornography within our culture and the effects it has on men and our relationships to women.


At the end of the workshop the women that took part in the workshop gave us the following feedback.

the women wanted us (the men) to:


the women did not want us (the men) to:


Luckily, we had time to go through these, as we felt it was important that we get direct feedback from the women’s group. It was helpful to see that some of the issues we had discussed as men also had been talked about in the women’s group. Unfortunately there was not enough tome to think together about how we could practically work on these issues and what men can do to become more of a part in the struggle for feminism. In a sense though, I feel that some ideas about this came up in the initial discussion at the start of the workshop. The senses of what we – as men – can do in the struggle for feminism is (1) to get more involved in feminism and expose ourselves to feminism by attending events, conferences, fundraisers, marches and protests, (2) get involved or support in all-gender groups that support equality and struggle for feminism (e.g. OBJECT - http://www.object.org.uk/ or the FAWCETT SOCIETY - http://www.fawcettsociety.org.uk/)(3) talk openly about our feminism with our friends and spread our thoughts and ideas in our circle of friends and acquaintances. Only if we as men do these important things, as well as keep in mind the "dos & donts" the women in our workshop presented us with, will we as men be able to make a practical contribution to the struggle for feminism.

A big thank you to everyone who came to the Feminism in London conference and a special thank you to everyone who came to our workshop. It was great working with you and we thought it was very valuable to hear all your thoughts and ideas! We were very pleased with the outcome of the workshop. Thank you also for your feedback on our workshop. If you have any further comments or questions with regards to our workshop, please send us an email.
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          Minutes from 24/2/08   

>>Women acting dumb<<

We discussed our experience of women tending to “act dumb” in conversations with us as men, when we know that they are more intelligent. We thought that this was a learnt behaviour which, among other things, played the role of bolstering men’s ego’s by making them seem like the clever one in the conversation. One gay man present said that he’d never experienced women “dumbing down” in conversations with him which made us think that about it might have to do with more than just boosting male egos.

One thing we didn’t discuss (but should have!) was how we could react positively if we’re ever aware of a woman pandering to our ego by pretending to be stupider than they are.

>>Men and emotions<<

We thought about the questions, what do we do with our feelings, both positive and negative? What is our first reaction? Is it to share them with people around us? Keep them to ourselves? We agreed that often when we don’t talk about our feelings but kind of want to it’s as if we’re waiting for someone to ask us how we’re feeling. For most of us it’s normally a woman we’re waiting for to ask us that question. We’re not used to men using emotional language, asking us how we’re doing etc. Most of us are also not good at asking those emotional questions ourselves.

We talked about the phenomenon of men hiding themselves away from the world, deliberately isolating themselves. This is something that some of us had experienced to different levels of intensity. This isolation can become a kind of comfort zone that it’s hard to escape from, and can also be very lonely. Is this about mental health, or being male? Probably both, we thought.

We mentioned how sometimes we just don’t know how we’re feeling or don’t even realise when we’re having a feeling. We’ve all been taught in different ways to become boys and then men and a key element of this is learning not to show any of our emotions. We all recognised how this happened at school and was probably mot intense in single sex schools. We also talked about how we can unlearn this behaviour and start to reveal more of ourselves to the world, be more open about our feelings and learn to feel more.

We talked about doing a radio interview for Dissident Island Radio.

Two future topics for discussion were also suggested.

1) Are all people raised as men sexist?

2) Our friendships with women.

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          Sarawak Buat Rayuan Kes Pujut - Abang Jo   

KUCHING: Kerajaan Negeri akan membuat rayuan terhadap keputusan Mahkamah Tinggi Kuching yang mengenepikan keputusan Dewan Undangan Negeri berhubung pelucutan Dr Ting Tiong Choon sebagai Ahli Dewan Undangan Negeri (ADUN) Pujut.

Ketua Menteri Datuk Amar Abang Johari Tun Openg berkata, rayuan itu akan dibuat oleh Peguam Besar Negeri mewakili kerajaan negeri di Mahkamah Rayuan nanti.

"Kita menghormati keputusan Mahkamah Tinggi Kuching. Mahkamah mengikut lunas undang-undang, jadi kerajaan negeri akan merayu keputusan tersebut di Mahkamah Rayuan," katanya.

Beliau berkata demikian ketika ditemui pemberita selepas program ihsan Ramadan Satok di Dewan Dato Hajah Juma'ani Sekolah Kebangsaan Rakyat di sini petang tadi.

Ditanya apakah tindakan selanjutnya, Abang Johari berkata pihaknya akan mengumumkannya dalam masa terdekat.

Semalam, Hakim Datuk Douglas Christo Primus Sikayun dalam penghakimannya berkata, Speaker DUN, Datuk Amar Asfia Awang Nassar membuat keputusan melampaui bidang kuasanya. 

Justeru katanya, Dr Ting selaku plantif adalah layak untuk bertanding dalam Pilihan Raya Negeri (PRN) dan kekal sebagai ADUN Pujut  yang dipilih oleh rakyat. 

Susulan keputusan itu semalam, Mahkamah Tinggi Kuching mengarahkan defendan pertama dan kedua iaitu Speaker DUN Datuk Amar Awang Asfia Awang Nasar dan Dato Sri Wong Soon Koh membayar kos guaman RM100,000 kepada plaintif. -UB


          Karim Tak Peduli Kesombongan Nazri Dan Akan Pertahankan Hak Sarawak!      

KUCHING: “Jika difikirkannya (Nazri) bahawa saya tidak faham, berlagak, samseng ….saya tidak fikir dia tahu siapa saya!

“Adalah tidak sopan untuk memanggil seseorang itu sebagai setahun jagung, samseng dan seumpamanya … terutamanya jika anda seorang menteri kanan dan pada bulan Ramadan,” jawab Menteri Pelancongan, Kesenian, Kebudayaan, Belia dan Sukan, Datuk Abdul Karim Rahman Hamzah, mengulas tempelakan Menteri Pelancongan dan Kebudayaan Pusat, Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz terhadapnya pada Sabtu.

Serangan Nazri berikutan tindakan Abdul Karim yang baharu dilantik ke jawatan itu pada bulan lalu, mengkritik tindakannya untuk melaksanakan Rang Undang-Undang Cukai Pelancongan ke seluruh negara bermula 1 Julai depan, termasuk di Sabah dan Sarawak.

Abdul Karim berkata, tindakan tersebut tidak bijak dan perlu disemak semula kerana dikhuatiri akan menjejaskan sektor pelancongan negeri.

Mengulas serangan itu lagi, Abdul Karim menafikan gelaran “setahun jagung” Nazri itu sebagai penghinaan kepadanya.

Tegas Abdul Karim, adalah menjadi haknya untuk meminta penangguhan dan semakan semula pelaksanaan Cukai Pelancongan yang dipaksakan kepada negeri ini tanpa berunding dengan tuan tanah.

“Saya tidak akan tunduk kepada kesombongan dan reaksi kasar menteri ini.

“Apa yang saya lakukan adalah berdasarkan kepada lunas undang-undang … berdasarkan apa yang saya tahu sebagai seorang pengamal undang-undang dan untuk menjaga kepentingan Sarawak.

Abdul Karim berkata, isu Cukai Pelancongan tersebut dijangka akan dibincangkan lanjut dalam mesyuarat kabinet tidak lama lagi dan keputusan kabinet itu kelak akan membolehkan Kerajaan Negeri membuat tindakan susulan.

“Isu ini perlu dibincangkan di peringkat yang lebih tinggi daripada kementerian saya.

“Ia hak mutlak Kerajaan Negeri dan rakyat Sarawak,” jelasnya selepas menyertai program agihan bubur lambuk dan bubur pedas di Sarawak Plaza petang semalam.

Program tersebut dianjurkan Perbadanan Kemajuan Kraftangan Malaysia Sarawak dengan kerjasama Borneo Island Big Bikers (BIBB).

Abdul Karim berharap bahawa tindakan susulan yang diambil oleh Kerajaan Negeri mengenai pelaksanaan Cukai Pelancongan akan diperhalusi dan akan ditangani secara baik untuk semua pihak.

Beliau berkata kerajaan negeri tidak bermaksud untuk menentang pelaksanaan Cukai Pelancongan sebaliknya kecewa tidak dirujuk mengenai perkara itu.

Sementara itu, rakyat Sarawak bersatu mengutuk reaksi kasar Nazri dan berdiri teguh di belakang Abdul Karim.

Adun Muara Tuang, Datuk Idris Buang melalui status facebooknya berkata: “Kita sokong menteri kita YB Datuk Abdul Karim dalam hal ini seratus peratus.

“Jangan cuak dengan ‘menteri tuakah, menteri lamakah’ dari sana …dari KL.

“Mun sik tegal BN Sarawak & Sabah , BN di Semenanjung boleh tumbang, you you ! Apa salahnya untuk menghormati kita mempertahan hak-hak negeri Sarawak?

“Tunjukkanlah adat budaya setia kawan yang sejati dan baik kepada kita dari kepulauan Borneo ini; yang sentiasa merendah diri dan menghormati rakan dari Semananjung.

“Kami bersikap beradat bukan ertinya kami boleh dibuli!

Difahamkan Ketua Menteri, Datuk Amar Abang Johari Tun Openg akan bertemu Perdana Menteri, Datuk Seri Mohd Najib Razak pada 15 Jun ini. Mungkinkan isu ini antara agenda yang akan dibincangkan? – Sarawakvoice


          Awas, Dadah "Zombie" Flakka Mula Menular Ke Asia..   

Sejenis dadah sintetik baru yang dinamakan FLAKKA kini telah menggemparkan negara Amerika.

Effek individu yang mengambil dadah ini dikatakan akan menjadi "zombie", dan yang menyedihkan mereka TIDAK AKAN KEMBALI NORMAL.

Kesan kerosakan kimia terhadap otak sesiapa yang mengambilnya akan menjadi KEKAL SELAMAnya.

Difahamkan, dadah FLAKKA ini sebenarnya masih lagi dalam fasa eksperimen namun ianya telah dicuba di pasaran untuk melihat reaksi dan effek terhadap penagih agar ianya boleh diperbaiki lagi.

Difahamkan juga, pembuat dadah ini telah mencuba untuk masuk ke pasaran Asia, terutamanya Asia Tenggara kerana ramai pengguna dadah sintetik murah di sini.

Bentuk fisikal kristal FLAKKA, yang lebih mirip seperti BATU @ SYABU @ METAPHAMINE @ KETAMINE, dan juga pil ekstasi, yang banyak digunakan di Malaysia, namun ia dikatakan jauh lebih murah harganya maka dikhuatiri ianya akan dicampur oleh pengedar dadah dengan dadah yang disebut di atas demi untuk keuntungan berlipat ganda.

Kaedah pengambilan dadah FLAKKA juga adalah seperti dadah sintetik yang lain, samada menggunakan suntikan atau dihisap, ianya jua sering dihisap menggunakan rokok elektronik atau VAPE. 

Jadi, berhentilah mengambil dadah.. jangan terjadi mangsa seperti didalam video di bawah ini.-UnReportedNews™®

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          #PrkPujut: PBB Lambir Akan Bantu Rampas Balik Pujut   

KUCHING: Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) Cawangan Lambir bersedia membantu jentera pilihan raya Barisan Nasional (BN) pada Pilihan Raya Kecil (PRK) Pujut akan datang.

Ahli Dewan Undangan Negeri (ADUN) Lambir, Ripin Lamat berkata, pasukannya akan bekerja keras untuk memastikan kerusi tersebut dapat dirampas balik daripada Parti Tindakan Demokratik (DAP).

"Kita berusaha keras pada pilihan raya ini untuk merampas kembali kerusi ini (Pujut) daripada pembamgkang," katanya.

Kerusi tersebut kosong selepas Dewan Undangan Negeri (DUN) melucutkan kelayakan Dr Ting Tiong Choon sebagai Ahli Dewan Undangan Negeri (ADUN) kerana memiliki kewarganegaraan Australia.

Suruhanjaya Pilihan Raya (SPR) menetapkan 20 Jun sebagai hari penamaan calon manakala pengundian pada 4 Julai.-Sarawakiana


          SPR Umum 4 Julai Tarikh PRK Pujut   

PUTRAJAYA: Suruhanjaya Pilihan Raya (SPR) mengumumkan tarikh pilihan raya kecil (PRK) Dewan Undangan Negeri (DUN) Pujut, Sarawak pada 4 Julai selepas Hari Raya Aidilfitri.

Pengerusi SPR, Datuk Seri Mohd Hashim Abdullah mengumumkan demikian bagi mengisi kekosongan yang ditinggalkan Adun DAP, Dr Ting Tiong Choon yang dilucutkan oleh DUN Sarawak.

Hashim turut mengumumkan hari penamaan calon pada Selasa, 20 Jun, bertempat di Dewan Suarah Miri, Sarawak.

SPR berkata seramai 483 petugas pilihan raya dilantik untuk mengendalikan proses PRK itu, melibatkan perbelanjaan RM838,536.00.

Seramai 20,070 pemilih berdaftar layak mengundi pada PRK Pujut.

Pada 12 Mei, DUN Sarawak melucutkan kelayakan Dr Ting sebagai Adun Pujut selepas usul Menteri Perdagangan Antarabangsa dan E-Dagang negeri, Datuk Woon Soon Koh yang juga Adun Bawang Assan mendedahkan Dr Ting mempunyai 2 kewarganegaraan, iaitu Malaysia dan Australia.

Usul itu diluluskan selepas mendapat sokongan 70 Adun, manakala 10 yang lain membantah.

Dr Ting yang menjalani latihan sebagai doktor perubatan di Australia, meraih 8,899 undi untuk memenangi kerusi Pujut, menewaskan calon Barisan Nasional Hii King Chiong yang mendapat 7,140 undi, calon PAS Jofri Jaraiee (513 undi) dan calon Bebas Fong Pau Teck (375 undi).

Mengulas mengenai cadangan DAP yang mahu membawa kes tersebut ke mahkamah, Hashim berkata pihaknya akan mematuhi segala keputusan yang dibuat pihak mahkamah kelak.

“DAP nak cabar di mahkamah, kita hanya menjalani tugas kita dahulu, apabila kita terima notis kekosongan, dan SPR akan mematuhi keputusan dibuat mahkamah nanti.

“Kalau keputusan mahkamah kata ianya kekal pada masa itu kita kekalkan,” katanya. -MK


          SPR Terima Surat Pemakluman Rasmi Kekosongan Kerusi DUN Pujut   


          Juanda Persoalkan Kebanjiran Pekerja Asing Di Jamoreng   

Pembangunan ladang dan kilang Kelapa Sawit di Jamoreng telah mengundang kebanjiran pekerja warga asing dan bilangan mereka didapati semakin bertambah.

ADUN Jamoreng Dato’ Murshid DiRaja Dr Juanda Jaya berkata, situasi ini amat ketara sehingga ianya telah menimbulkan kebimbangan.

"Seluruh dunia tahu yang Malaysia adalah negara yang makmur dan mewah sehinggakan ramai burub asing datang ke Malaysia mencari pekerjaan baik secara sah satu pun tidak sah."

Juanda menyatakan, kerajaan bertanggungjawab menyediakan peluang pekerjaan untuk rakyatnya namun situasi tersebut bagaikan memberi peluang pekerjaan kepada burh asing pula.

Beliau yang ditemui pemberita di lobi DUN Sarawak hari ini mempersoalkan mengapa syarikat-syarikat besar tersebut tidak menggajkan orang tempatan.

"Apakah sudah tiada orang tempatan? Apakah syarikat-syarikat tersebut akan mengalami kerugian besar jika menggaji penduduk tempatan?," katanya sambil menambah, situasi ini tidak boleh diterima sama sekali.

"Apabila kita membawa orang luar bekerja disini, kita kena membayar levi, kos kemasukan, kos penginapan namun semua ini di anggap "lebih mengguntungkan" berbanding menggaji rakyat temptan."

"Saya juga ingin tahu berapa nisbah pekerja asing dan tempatan di ladang-ladang di kawasan saya da seluruh Sarawak amnya," katanya lagi.

Juanda juga menyentuh kehadiran warga Pakistan yang menjual permaidani dan membuka kedai di kawasan saya seolah-olah tiada pemantauan ke atas situasi ini.

"Benarkah mereka ini ada permit kerja? Sejak bila kita "mengimport" pekerja asing menjual permaidani dan membuka kedai di Sarawak?," persoal Juanda lagi.

          Notis Rasmi Kekosongan DUN Pujut Dihantar Pada SPR Hari in   

Pemakluman rasmi kekosongan kerusi Dewan Undangan Negeri (DUN) N. 74 Pujut telah dihantar kepada Suruhanjaya Pilihan Raya (SPR) pada hari ini.

Ini dimaklumkan oleh Speaker Dewan Undangan Negeri (DUN) Sarawak Datuk Amar Mohd Asfia Awang Nassar pada satu media di DUN Sarawak sebentar tadi.

"Pihak SPR telah dimaklumkan melalui surat bertarikh 16 Mei berkenaan perlucutan kelayakan Dr Ting Tiong Choon sebagai Ahli Dewan Undangan Negeri (ADUN) N.74 Pujut berdasarkan Artikel 21 (5) Perlembangaan Negeri dan pemakluman rasmi telah dihantar hari ini untuk tindakan lanjut pihak SPR."

Pada Jumaat lepas, Ahli Dewan Undangan Negeri (ADUN) Pujut Dr Ting Tiong Choon dari Parti Tindakan Demokratik (DAP) telah dilucutkan jawatan sebagai ADUN berikutan satu usul dibentangkan di Dewan Undangan Negeri Sarawak.

Usul berkenaan dibentangkan Menteri Perdagangan Antarabangsa dan E-Dagang Datuk Sri Wong Soon Koh yang mendakwa Dr Ting hilang kelayakan sebagai ADUN kerana memperolehi kewarganegaraan Australia, berdaftar sebagai pengundi di negara itu dan berikrar taat setia kepada negara di luar persekutuan Malaysia.

Wong yang juga ADUN Bawang Assan berkata, berdasarkan perkara 17 (1) (g) Perlembagaan Sarawak yang menyatakan bahawa mana-mana orang yang dengan sukarela memperoleh kewarganegaraan asing atau menikmati hak-hak kerakyatan asing akan hilang kelayakan sebagai seorang ADUN.

Menurut Wong, di bawah Perkara 17 (1) (g) Perlembagaan Negeri, Dr Ting bukan seorang yang layak dan sesuai untuk menjadi ADUN Sarawak.

Penyingkiran wakil DAP itu bakal menyaksikan Pilihan Raya Kecil (PRK) bagi kerusi Pujut.

          Usul DAP Ditolak   

Usul yang dibawa Ketua Pembangkang, Chong Chien Jen (DAP-Kota Sentosa) bagi Menteri Perdagangan Antarabangsa dan e-Dagang, Datuk Seri Wong Soon Koh supaya memohon maaf kerana menuduh bekas Ahli Dewan Undangan Negeri (ADUN) Pujut, Dr Ting Tiong Choon telah muflis ditolak pada hari ini.

Speaker Dewan Undangan Negeri (DUN) Datuk Amar Mohamad Asfia Awang Nasar berkata, usul tersebut adalah tidak berkaitan kerana Tiong Choon tidak berada di dalam sidang Dewan Undangan Negeri (DUN) untuk mempertahankan diri dalam perkara berkenaan.

Asfia menegaskan, maklumat yang diperolehi daripada National Personal Insolvency Index memaparkan nama Tiong Choon pada 29 Jun 2012 dan 11 September tahun sama malah dalam Bankrupcy Register Search yang juga telah mengeluarkan nama beliau.

"Pembatalan kelayakan beliau sebagai ADUN  juga adalah berdasarkan Artikel 17(1)(g) Perlembagaan Negeri Sarawak yang mana seseorang itu hilang kelayakan sebagai ADUN jika secara sukarela memperoleh atau menjalankan hak kewarganegaraan atau membuat deklarasi kesetiaan kepada mana-mana negara di luar Persekutuan Malaysia bukannya di bawah Arti17(1)(b) mengenai muflis," katanya lagi.

Asfia berkata demikian ketika membuat keputusan mengenai usul berkenaan pada Mesyuarat Pertama Bagi Penggal Kedua Persidangan Dewan Undangan Negeri (DUN) Sarawak Ke-18, di sini hari ini.

Beliau kemudiannya memutuskan, Soon Koh tidak perlu memohon maaf dan beliau menolak usul berkenaan.


          ADUN Pujut Hilang Kelayakan: SPR Tunggu Pemakluman Rasmi DUN Sarawak    



Berhubung status Ahli Dewan Undangan Negeri (ADUN) N.74 Pujut YB. Dr. Ting Tiong Choon yang dilaporkan telah dilucutkan keanggotaannya daripada menjadi ADUN Sarawak ekoran taraf kewarganegaraan beliau dipertikai kerana didakwa memiliki dua kerakyatan iaitu kerakyatan Malaysia dan Australia. Buat masa ini Suruhanjaya Pilihan Raya (SPR) hanya mengetahui perkara ini menerusi laporan oleh pihak media massa. Sehubungan dengan itu, SPR akan menunggu pemakluman rasmi oleh Yang Berhormat Speaker DUN Sarawak mengenai kedudukan ADUN N.74 Pujut itu dan SPR hanya akan mengambil tindakan lanjut selepas menerima pemakluman secara rasmi. 

Sekian, terima kasih.

Suruhanjaya Pilihan Raya (SPR) Malaysia

Tarikh:  12 Mei 2017


          Kerusi DUN Pujut Dikosongkan Akibat ADUNnya Hilang Kelayakan   

Persidangan Dewan Undangan Negeri (DUN) Sarawak hari ini meluluskan usul Barisan Nasional (BN) untuk membatalkan kelayakan Dr Ting Tiong Choon (DAP) sebagai Ahli Dewan Undangan Negeri (ADUN) Pujut. 

Usul dicadangkan oleh Menteri Perdagangan Antarabangsa dan E-Perdagangan, Dato Sri Wong Soon Koh dan diluluskan oleh Speaker DUN Datuk Amar Mohd Asfia Awang Nassar. 

Sebanyak 70 undi diterima daripada ahli dewan yang memihak kepada usul ini dengan hanya 10 undi menolak diterima. 

"Usul diluluskan dan ahli yang berhormat bagi Pujut adalah tidak layak dibawah Artikel 17 (1) (g) Perlembagaan Sarawak  untuk menjadi seorang ADUN serta merta," tegas Asfia.

Terdahulu, Soon Koh yang juga Menteri Mewangan Kedua  dalam usulnya berkata Dr Ting tidak layak menjadi ADUN kerana mempunyai dua kewarganegaraan iaitu Malaysia dan Australia. 

Soon Koh turut mendakwa mempunyai bukti bahawa Dr Ting adalah pengundi berdaftar di Australia dan melanggar peraturan kerana tidak memaklumkan kepada Suruhanjaya Pilihan Raya (SPR) mengenai statusnya.

Di bawah Artikel 17 (1)(g) Perlembagaan Sarawak seseorang ADUN katanya akan hilang kelayakan jika beliau secara sukarela memperoleh kewarganegaraan lain.

"Dr Ting mendapat kewarnegaraan Australia pada 20 Januari 2010 dan selain pernah diisytihar bankrup sebanyak dua kali di Australia pada 21 Jun dan 11 September 2012. 

"Dr Ting tidak boleh lari dari kenyataan bahawa beliau tidak layak untuk menjadi ADUN kerana telah berbukti bersalah dibawah Artikel 17 (1)(g) Perlembagaan Sarawak," katanya. 

Sementara itu, Dr Ting dalam bahas bagi mempertahankan dirinya berkata semua tuduhan oleh BN adalah tidak benar. 

Tegasnya, semua tuduhan ini adalah dari sumber yang tidak tepat dan beliau percaya ia adalah dari lawannya yang bertanding di kerusi yang sama pada Pilihan Raya Negeri (PRN) 7 Mei 2016. 

"Saya ada alasan untuk menetap lama di Australia dan bukan saya sahaja yang menetap di sana tetapi juga ADUN Batu Kawa yang mana lebih lama iaitu selama 17 tahun. 

"Saya di sini berkhidmat untuk rakyat di negeri ini dan bukan sahaja di Pujut," tegasnya lagi yang ternyata tidak berpuas hati dengan tuduhan itu. 


          Majlis Istiadat Pembukaan Penggal Ke-2 DUN Sarawak Ke-18   
Sekitar Majlis Istiadat Pembukaan Penggal Kedua Dewan Undangan Negeri Sarawak Ke-18 di DUN Sarawak pada pagi ini.

Kredit gambar: Zulazhar Sheblee

          Fitnah Setiausaha Politik Menteri Untuk Jejaskan BN Sarawak    

Semalam keluar cerita di dalam sebuah blog di mana kononnya seorang setiausaha politik menteri kanan dari Sarawak yang dikatakan telah mengumpul berjuta-juta ringgit dalam masa yang singkat sedang disiasat oleh Suruhanjaya Pencegahan Rasuah Malaysia (SPRM).

Penulis blog tersebut juga mendakwa pejabat Menteri tersebut di Putrajaya minggu lepas kononnya telah diserbu SPRM.

Biarpun tidak menyebut nama, penulis blog menggunakan gambar yang sudah dikaburkan namun penulisan tersebut jelas menunjukkan ia menjurus kepada Setiausaha Politik Menteri Sumber Asli dan Alam Sekitar iaitu Dato Sri Syed Hamzah Al-Yahya. 

(Kalau tak percaya cuba google image "wan hamzah unreportednews", keluarlah gambar di bawah ni).

Penulis blog itu juga mendakwa setiausaha politik berkenaan kononnya disiasat kerana beliau meminta rasuah dalam tender dan projek di kementerian itu.

Ironinya, setiausaha politik tersebut ketika saya hubungi petang tadi masih bertugas seperti biasa dipejabatnya di Putrajaya dan agak terkejut dengan berita (palsu yang tersebar di media sosial berkatian dengan dirinya) yang saya sampaikan kepada beliau.

Dato Sri Syed Hamzah juga telah menafikan dengan sekeras-kerasnya apa yang telah didakwa oleh blog tersebut dan juga akan mempertimbangkan akan membuat laporan polis mengenai perkara itu serta mengambil tindakan undang-undang ke atas penulis blog tersebut kerana telah mengfitnah beliau.

Dari pemahaman saya, mana-mana kakitangan kerajaan (tolak Guan Eng DAP sebab dia ingat kerajaan Pulau Pinang bapa dia yang punya) yang dikaitkan dengan kes rasuah, lagi-lagi kes yang berprofil tinggi, suspek akan digantung kerja serta-merta kerana khuatir akan menggunakan kuasanya untuk menjejaskan penyiasatan.

Jadi sekarang kita dah tahu berita tersebut adalah palsu dan persoalan yang perlu kita tanya kini adalah, mengapakah berita palsu itu dibuat dan disebar di media sosial?

Baru-baru ini, Barisan Nasional Sarawak menerusi Datuk Amar Hajah Jamilah Anu pada PRK Tanjong Datu telah mengalahkan calon Parti Reformasi Negeri Sarawak (STAR) Johnny Aput dan calon Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak (PBDS) Baru, Rapelson Richard Hamit dengan majoriti 6,443 undi apabila memperoleh 6,573 undi, manakala Johnny Aput memperoleh 108 undi dan Rapelson 130 undi.

Pada pandangan saya, penyebaran berita palsu ini ada kaitan dengan kemenangan besar ini diterajui oleh Ketua Menteri Datuk Amar Abang Johari Tun Abang Haji Openg bersama-sama pemimpin BN Sarawak dan Pusat yang lain yang turun berkempen.

Namun yang memainkan peranan utama kepada kemenangan tersebut adalah Pengarah Operasi Pilihanraya BN PRK Tanjong Datu Dato Sri Wan Junaidi Tuanku Jaafar iaitu boss Dato Sri Syed Hamzah dimana, kedua-dua mereka telah bertungkus lumus sepanjang tempoh kempen tersebut.

Sememangnya, terdapat pihak yang tidak senang hati dengan kemenangan luar biasa ini dan khuatir ianya menjadi gelombang ikutan pada Pilihan Raya Umum (PRU) Ke-14 yang bakal diadakan bila-bila masa saja lagi dan taktik yang paling berkesan untuk menghalang kemenangan ini adalah dengan mencemarkan mereka-mereka yang telah menjadi tulang belakang kemenangan BN Sarawak...


The Return Of The UnReportedNews™®

          DPTS Jabu Undur Diri Selepas 44 Tahun Setia Berbakti Kepada PBB    

KUCHING: Tan Sri Datuk Patinggi Alfred Jabu Numpang membuat keputusan dramatik hari ini, dengan mengumumkan pengunduran sebagai Timbalan Presiden Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) Sarawak.

“Keputusan itu dibuat pada pagi ini dan terus dimaklumkan kepada Datuk Amar Abang Johari (Tun Abang Haji Openg) sejurus ketibaannya,” katanya sejurus selesai mesyuarat Majlis Kerja Tertinggi PBB di Ibu Pejabat PBB, Jalan Bako dekat sini.

Ia merupakan keputusan yang penting bagi Jabu selepas mengumumkan pengunduran sebagai Ahli Dewan Undangan Negeri Layar pada 21 Mac lalu, yang sekali gus menamatkan penglibatannya sebagai ahli politik yang aktif dan Timbalan Ketua Menteri Sarawak.

Alfred Jabu mula menyertai politik pada usia 32 tahun, dengan menang tanpa bertanding Pilihan Raya Kecil Dun Skrang-Engkilili pada 1973.

Beliau sebelum itu merupakan pegawai kanan di Jabatan Pertanian Sarawak, dan telah berkahwin dengan Puan Sri Empiang Jabu.

Kerjaya politiknya terus bersinar apabila pada tahun berikutnya, memenangi kerusi Dun Layar dengan menewaskan bekas Ketua Menteri Sarawak yang pertama, Datuk Stephen Kalong Ningkan.

Pada 1976, kerjayanya terus melonjak apabila dipilih oleh Ketua Menteri, Tun Abdul Rahman Yaakub sebagai salah seorang Timbalan Ketua Menteri; jawatan yang terus disandangnya sehingga tahun ini.

Kerjaya politik Jabu cukup luar biasa sebenarnya, kerana telah berkhidmat di bawah pentadbiran tiga Ketua Menteri dan empat Presiden PBB.

“Bermula dengan Tun Abdul Rahman Yaakub, kepada Tun Abdul Taib Mahmud, diikuti Tan Sri Adenan Satem dan akhir sekali bersama-sama Abang Johari sebagai Presiden PBB untuk tempoh enam hari.”

Penglibatan dan dambaan Jabu kepada PBB cukup mendalam, kerana selain dirinya, isterinya, Puan Sri Empiang, anaknya Gerald Rentap dan Umang Nangku turut berkhidmat kepada rakyat atas kapasiti parti.

“Saya merakamkan setinggi-tinggi terima kasih kepada mereka yang menyokong saya selama ini.

“Jiwa saya terus untuk PBB. Dan saya akan memberi nasihat jika diperlukan,” katanya lagi.

Dalam rakaman penghargaannya dalam sidang media sebelum itu, Abang Johari bukan sahaja menghargai pengorbanan Jabu, tetapi menganggapnya sebagai “Apai PBB”, yang akan dirujuk nasihatnya apabila keadaan memerlukan. – Sarawakvoice


          Kontraktor Tidak Bertanggungjawab Sebabkan 30 Sekolah Luar Bandar Bergelap   

KUCHING 4 Jan. - Tindakan segelintir kontraktor tidak bertanggungjawab menyebabkan kira-kira 30 sekolah luar bandar di negeri ini yang menggunakan set generator diesel bergelap pada hari pembukaan sekolah semalam.

Pengerusi Eksekutif Jepak Holdings Sendirian Berhad, Abang Nawawi Abang Drahman berkata, kejadian tersebut berlaku disebabkan mereka telah gagal mengikuti arahan Kementerian Pendidikan dengan surat bertarikh 16 Disember tahun lalu.

"Jika kontraktor yang dilantik sebelum ini mengikuti arahan diberikan, minyak berkenaan dapat bertahan bagi tempoh 10 ke 15 hari selepas tamat kontrak pada 31 Disember lalu.

"Kegagalan memastikan bekalan minyak untuk menghidupkan elektrik di sekolah berkenaan bukan salah Putrajaya seperti yang dinyatakan seorang pemimpn politik," katanya.

Beliau berkata demikian ketika sidang akhbar mengenai isu kekurangan bekalan diesel kepada sekolah-sekolah luar bandar hari ini.

Jepak Holdings Sendirian Berhad yang merupakan syarikat Bumiputera telah dianugerahkan kontrak bagi membekal diesel, menyelenggara dan menaik taraf set generator kepad 369 sekolah luar bandar dari 1 Januari tahun ini.

Mengulas lanjut, beliau berkata, pihaknya telah membekalkan minyak diesel kepada sekolah-sekolah berkenaan dan semua masalah telah diatasi. -UM OnLine 


          It's Not A U-Turn, Diplomacy Is Better Than Confrontation - Adenan   

The State Government is not making a ‘U’ turn on this matter because we believe that Federal and State BN Governments being in the family can resolve this issue amicably between the parties concerned as diplomacy is better than confrontation.

Chief Minister Datuk Patinggi Tan Sri Haji Adenan Satem said that, that is why the State Government has decided not to proceed on the motion to Article 1(2) of the Federal Constitution which categorised Sarawak as one of the thirteen (13) states in Malaysia.

"The amended Article 1(2) is perceived as not in the spirit behind Inter-Governmental Committee Report and the Malaysia Agreement which was clearly reflected in the original wordings of that Article," he said.

Adenan elaborated, that Article, before its amendments clearly provides that the Federation of Malaysia consisted of: (1) The States of the federation of Malaya; (2) The States of Sabah and Sarawak; and (3) Singapore.

He said this in his Winding-up Speech at the last day of the 18th Sarawak DUN's Sitting today.

"The Prime Minister has announced that he is willing to discuss with Sarawak and Sabah on any matters related to the misinterpretations and misunderstandings to the Malaysia Agreement 1963."

"On this note, the Prime Minister clearly shows that he is willing to discuss this matter with the State Government and to find solutions to resolve this issue," stressed Adenan. -UnReportedNews™®

          Laksana Projek Kerajaan Dengan Sempurna, Pesan Wan Junaidi   

Kontraktor yang telah berjaya mendapat projek kerajaan disaran untuk memastikan projek tersebut dilaksanakan dengan sempurna mengikutkan ekspektasi kerajaan dan rakyat.

Menteri Sumber Asli dan Alam Sekitar Dato Sri Dr Haji Wan Junaidi Tuanku Jaafar berkata, rakyat setempat berharapkan agar projek yang dilaksanakan di kawasan mereka akan memberi manfaat maka jangan mengecewakan mereka.

"Kepada semua kontraktor, saya berpesan jangan hanya berjanji tetapi sebaliknya gagal melaksanakan projek tersebut dalam masa yang telah diberikan," tegas Junaidi lagi.

"Saya juga telah mengarahkan Jabatan Pengairan Dan Saliran (JPS) untuk memantau sekiranya ada syarikat kontraktor yang gagal menyempurnakan projek dan terus akan menyenaraihitamkan syarikat tersebut dari mendapat projek kerajaan."

Beliau menambah, kita tidak mahu berlaku ketirisan dan penyelewengan kewangan yang boleh menyebabkan kualiti projek rakyat pada tahap yang teruk maka ikutlah spesifikasi pembinaan.

Jelasnya ia penting kerana setiap projek yang diperuntukan kerajaan memberi impak kepada kehidupan rakyat.

Beliau, yang juga Ahli Parlimen Santubong berkata demikian ketika ditemubual pemberita selepas merasmikan Upacara Pecah Tanah Ke Atas Projek Rancangan Memulihkan Koridor Sungai (RMKS) Batang Sadong dan Kerja-Kerja Berkaitan di Pekan Simunjan, Lembangan Batang Sadong pada hari ini.

"Projek pemulihan koridor Sungai Simunjan contohnya haruslah menggunakan bahan-bahan berkualiti bertepatan dengan kos yang diperuntukkan."

Projek pembinaan koridor yang bernilai RM15.5 juta tersebut sepanjang 560 meter itu dijangka siap Mei 2018 nanti.

Turut hadir pada majlis tersebut adalah Menteri Di Jabatan Perdana Menteri Datuk Seri Hajah Nancy Shukri, ADUN Gedong Datuk Haji Naroden Majais, yang juga Menteri Muda di Jabatan Ketua Menteri (Pembangunan Usahawan Bumiputera), ADUN Sadong Jaya Aidel Lariwoo dan ADUN Simunjan Awla Dris. -UnReportedNews™®

          I robot stanno arrivando   

Spettacolare (via Engadget):


          Pembangunan Sebatian Anti-HIV Pokok Bintangor Memberansangkan -Annuar   

Pembangunan sebatian anti-HIV daripada pokok Bintangor yang dikenalpasti sebagai Calanolide A telah menunjukkan hasil ujian klinikal yang begitu memberangsangkan.

Menteri Muda Penyelidikan Sains dan Bioteknologi, Dr. Anuar Rapaee (ADUN Nangka-BN) berkata, ketika ini beberapa kajian pra-klinikal telah pun dijalankan disamping meningkatkan produk klinikal serta memfailkan produk paten.

"Fasa 1a dan 1b ujian klinikal menggunakan produk tersebut yang telah ditambah baik berjaya dijalankan di Kuching dan Pulau Pinang," kata Annuar sambil menambah, susulan hasil yang meyakinkan itu, satu kertas kerja sedang dibuat untuk memaklumkan perkembangan dan memohon dana kepada Kabinet Negeri untuk melantik konsultan.

Beliau berkata demikian ketika menjawab soalan tambahan Dr. Hazland Abang Hipni (ADUN Demak Laut-BN) mengenai status sebatian anti-HIV dari pokok Bintangor di Persidangan DUN Sarawak sebentar tadi. -UnReportedNews™®

          Jangan Biar Pembangkang Terus Membuat Persepsi Jahat - Fazzrudin   

Kita tidak boleh membiarkan pembangkang terus menerus memainkan persepsi memberi gambaran negatif kepada kerajaan sebaiknya, kita terangkan isu tersebut dengan jelas kepada rakyat agar mereka mengetahui perkara yang sebenarnya.

ADUN Tupong Fazzrudin Abdul Rahman berkata, kita tidak mahu ianya menjadi isu 1MDB dimana biarpun ianya tidak bermasalah namun permainan persepsi jahat pembangkang yang terus menerus tanpa penjelasan segera telah memberi 1MDB imej yang buruk.

Ujar beliau lagi, perhimpunan kecil yang diadakan oleh pihak pembangkang semalam berniat memburukkan dan mencerminkan bahawa kerajaan tidak transparent dan corrupt di mata rakyat.

"Perhimpunan kecil dengan placard menuntut penjelasan berkenaan MRP seolah-olah kerajaan tidak mahu respond terhadap usul ADUN Kota Sentosa Chong Chieng Jen."

Fazzrudin berkata demikian ketika ditemui UnReportedNews™® di lobi DUN Sarawak selepas sesi Perbahasan Bajet 2017nya pada Persidangan DUN Sarawak pagi tadi.

"ADUN Kota Sentosa, telah membuat pertuduhan yang berat tanpa asas terhadap kerajaan dan jika beliau ikhlas, beliau boleh menarik balik pertuduhan tersebut terhadap kerajaan dan meneruskan usulnya untuk memohon penjelasan berkenaan peruntukan MRP berkenaan."

Fazzrudin menambah, beliau (Chong) juga boleh menghantar soalan kepada YAB Ketua Menteri kita atau Menteri Kewangan untuk mohon penjelasan tetapi oleh kerana niat dan hasrat hanyalah untuk score political point and spin segala isu untuk memburukkan kerajaan, maka beliau tidak mahu menarik balik point-point pertuduhan tersebut, agar usul beliau ditolak dan beliau di gantung dari Dewan. 

Secara sarkastik Fazzrudin berkata, ini adalah supaya beliau seolah-olah berjuang sehingga digantung dari dewan dan rugilah pengundi-pengundi yang mengharapkan wakil rakyat untuk mewakili mereka dalam dewan. 

"Budaya sebegini amat tidak sihat sekali dan jika diamalkan, ia akan menganggu focus kita bersama, agenda kita bersama, iaitu untuk mendapatkan hak negeri kita semula, tidak akan tercapai," katanya lagi. -UnReportedNews™®

          Chong Pecah Rekod: Digantung Hari Pertama Persidangan DUN    

Ahli Dewan Undangan Negeri (ADUN) Kota Sentosa Chong Chieng Jen, yang juga Pengerusi DAP Sarawak memecah rekod apabila beliau menjadi ADUN pertama digantung daripada menghadiri sidang Dewan Undangan Negeri (DUN) pada hari pertama DUN Sarawak bersidang.

Penggantungan beliau daripada menghadiri persidangan DUN selama lapan hari yang baharu bermula semalam berkuat kuasa serta merta.

Speaker DUN Datuk Amar Mohamad Asfia Awang Nasar membuat keputusan itu selepas Chong enggan menarik balik 'dakwaan rasuah yang sangat serius' rasuah terhadap Ketua Menteri Datuk Patinggi Tan Sri Adenan Satem.

Chong sebelum ini telah cuba untuk memfailkan usul terhadap Adenan atas dakwaan kehilangan sejumlah RM25O juta yang merupakan sebahagian daripada jumlah RM905,900,000 diluluskan untuk projek-projek kecil luar bandar pada persidangan DUN tahun lepas.

Terdahulu, Asfia kemudian menasihati Chong supaya menarik balik dakwaannya namun setelah Chong ditolak, Menteri Kewangan Kedua Dato Sri Wong Soon Koh mengemukakan usul untuk menggantung Chong dan usul ini disokong oleh Timbalan Ketua Menteri Datuk Amar Abang Johari Tun Openg. -UnReportedNews™®

          Jawapan Wartawan Kepada Pengkritik Laporan Isu Kerja Ladang Di Australia   

Kepada : Akmar Abu Bakar

Terdapat beberapa kesalahan fakta asas dalam ulasan saudara Akmar.
1-Saya bukan wartawan Berita Harian tetapi Utusan Malaysia
2-Di Cutri, saya membuat kerja-kerja thinning, bukannya memetik buah
Maka saya tertanya-tanya sama ada saudara membaca sepenuhnya laporan saya atau sekadar membaca tajuk sahaja?
Sudahkan saudara membaca lapan muka surat laporan khas saya. Sudahkan saudara membaca sepenuhnya tulisan Nick McKenzie dan menonton 7.30 report?
Jika dibaca, pastinya jelas terpampang maklumat asas tadi. Takkan itu pun masih buat silap fakta.
Inilah penyakit orang kita. Dia baca tajuk, dia terus percaya. Dia tak kaji betul-betul tapi dia share di Facebook, WhatsApp.
Saya lihat saudara Akmar berada dalam kategori ini. Jenis suka baca tajuk, lepas tu terus melompat buat ulasan. Baca saudara, Allah dah kata, Iqra' (baca).
Macam tu jugalah kaitannya dengan iklan-iklan menawarkan kemewahan dengan kerja ladang buah di Australia. Ramai yang percaya bulat-bulat.
Memang duit jadi kelemahan manusia dan sebab tu lah iklan kerja Australia di Facebook ni semuanya tayang duit.
Mungkin ada yang plan nak pergi tiga bulan sahaja (selari dengan tempoh sah visa pelancong), maklumlah sebulan dapat RM9,000, tiga bulan dah berapa? Lumayan, boleh bayar hutang.
Tapi sedih, lepas tiga bulan pun tak boleh balik lagi.
Memang orang Melayu obses dengan duit segera. Tengoklah skim cepat kaya, MLM dan sebagainya, orang Melayu lah yang palig ramai kena tipu.
Saya pun tak faham sangat kenapa orang kita mudah sangat kena tipu. Gores dan menang pun kena tipu. Alahai...
Saya tidak berminat untuk menjawab serangan dan cercaan peribadi saudara ke atas saya. Pemikiran saya bukanlah serendah itu.
Saudara juga telah membuat tafsiran sendiri mengenai diri saya berdasarkan laporan yang dibuat walaupun tidak mengenali secara peribadi.
Maka, izinkan saya untuk membuat penilaian menggunakan methodology yang sama, siapakah diri saudara berdasarkan maklumat yang saya peroleh di laman Facebook saudara
Selepas disemak, saudara dilihat konsisten mempromosikan peluang pekerjaan ladang di Australia dan secara terbuka meminta rakan FB berhubung jika berminat.
Dan seperti biasa, yang indah-indah sahajalah diceritakan. Biasalah taktik FB marketing dan saya lihat saudara adalah orang yang mengkaji teknik FB marketing.
Maka, izinkanlah saya bertanya:
1- Apa yang dibuat saudara di Australia? Kerja ladang atau bawa orang masuk? Atau seorang pekerja ladang yang nampak peluang untuk buat duit dengan bawa masuk pekerja.
2- Berapa lama dah saudara di sana? Adakah visa membenarkan saudara bekerja di sana? Bagaimana dengan kawan-kawan yang mengikuti saudara, visa apa yang nak digunakan? Student visa?
3- Katakan saudara adalah jujur, tidak menganiayai kawan-kawan yang dibawa masuk, adakah saudara sedar apa yang dibuat adalah jenayah? Pernahkan saudara mendengar istilah human traficking?
Ramai menuduh saya menutup periuk nasi bangsa saya di Australia. Tunggu....saya jelaskan dulu okey.
Laporan saya bertujuan:
1-Mengelakkan rakyat Malaysia dan bangsa saya daripada terpedaya dengan janji manis ejen. Ramai dah orang terkena, orang dari kampung.
Saya pun berasal dari kampung dan tak sanggup tengok orang saya kena tipu.
Tak kena atas kepala saudara Alhamdulillah, tapi jangan nafikan ada kes macam ni dan jumlahnya besar.
Ada yang sanggup pinjam duit sebab fikir dia pergi sekejap je, dah dapat buat untung akan balik segera. Alih-alih hidup susah di farm dan berhutang lagi.
Apa yang saya tulis bukan rekaan. Bukan imiginasi. Semua makumat saya terima daripada pekerja farm juga. Saya bukan keyboard warrior, saya turun ke ground dan saya tengok dan rasa kehidupan orang kita di Swan Hill.
Cuma masalah dengan bangsa Melayu yang masuk farm ni, dia tak suka cerita kedukaan dia sangat. Dia bagitahu kawan-kawan di Malaysia kerja best padahal diri sendiri je lah yang tahu.
Yang di Malaysia percaya bulat-bulat dan terpengaruh ke sana.
Sebab apa? Sebab ego, orang kampung dengar tumpang bangga. Kerja di Australia beb, bunyi gah sangat, malulah kalau mengaku hidup susah.
Bagi yang berjaya, berjayalah, dan kita jangan lupa memang ada yang terjerat di Australia. Semoga yang berjaya itu tidak mencemari tangan mereka dengan memanipulasikan mana-mana pihak.
2- Disebabkan banyak sangat orang Malaysia salah guna visa pelancong dan langgar peraturan, Imigresen sana dah alert.
Kalau naik penerbangan tambang murah, lagilah Imigresen curios. Tengoklah apa soalan dia tanya masa nak masuk. Lebih-lebih lagi kalau Australia adalah negara asing pertama yang korang lawat.
Adil kah benda ni untuk kira-kira 30 juta rakyat Malaysia lain yang nak ke sana melancong, bekerja secara sah, buka bisness dan lain lain.
Disebabkan pekerja ladang Malaysia buat hal dengan imigresen, orang lain kena getah. Pekerja Malaysia di farm tuduh saya tutup periuk nasi, sedarkah yang korang juga tutup periuk nasi rakyat Malaysia yang lain.
Bagi lah apa pun alasan, kerja tanpa permit tetap salah. Hormatilah undang-undang negara orang, kita pun marah Bangla dan Indon masuk Malaysia kerja haram.
Setiap rumah orang ada peraturan, kena lah ikut. Bukan sesuka hati terjah dan bagi hujah kami cari rezeki halal (TAPI DENGAN CARA SALAH).
Kena ingat, apa yang berlaku di ladang-ladang akan menjejaskan 156,000 diaspora Malaysia yang berada di Australi secara sah tak termasuk pelajar dan pekerja haram lain
Untuk kefahaman, saya copy n paste petikan statement seorang peguam rakyat Malaysia yang memiliki law firm, Fides Lawyers di Melbourne sejak 8 tahun lalu, Vicknaraj Thanarajah dalam isu ini.
As of 30th March 2016 the percentage of Australian residents born overseas are one of its highest in Australian History. The latest statistics show that out of the current Australian Population 156,500 or 0.7 percent are from Malaysia.
These are the legitimate migrants on record till to-date.
The above figures do not include the students who come here yearly to study or the illegal migrants.
According to the statistics for the months of September 2016, there are approximately 35,000 thousand people from Malaysia who visit Australia between August and September of 2016.
The above figures shows us a few crucial facts;
1.The Malaysian Diaspora in Australia is about 156K, and we have a sizeable presence in Australia being the top 10 diaspora in Australia;
2.The Monthly Malaysian Entrants Australia is the top 5 in Australia;
Therefore, whatever happens to the Malaysian community in Australia, has an impact not only to Malaysia reputation but also to the rest of the diaspora that have migrated here or has legitimate business interest in Australia, this includes a series of investments by Malaysian GLC in Australia.
It is also commonly known that Malaysia is the only Southeast Asian country with access to the electronic travel authority system under which Malaysian citizens — and applicants from most of the Western world — can get a three-month tourist visa online.
This is probably the result of the excellent diplomatic relations that is shared between the two countries.
Common sense would dictate that should there be in surge in abuse of this privilege this efficient process is endangered in being scrapped.
Australia tak bodoh, dia bukan tak tahu apa yang pekerja ladang ni buat. Kalau tengok statistik protection visa pun dah kantoi sebab tiba-tiba mendadak naik. Ini kerja siapa sebenarnya?
Malaysia negara aman dan masih berungsi tetapi ramai rakyat kita minta visa perlindugan (refugee). Negara kita tak beperang pun. Untuk kepentingan dia, dia menipu dalam borang permohonan siap kondem Malaysia lagi.
Berdasarkan statitik laman web Imigresen Australia, didapati permohonan visa protection oleh rakyat Malaysia meningkat daripada 294 permohonan pada 2013-2014, 1,401 permohonan pada 2014-2015 dan meroket kepada 3,549 (2015-2016)
Dari 294 permohonan naik kepada 3,549 permohonan dalam masa hanya empat tahun? Kegilaan apa kah ini?
Berikut petikan kenyataan Vicknaraj Thanarajah:
According to the statistic published by the Department of Immigration in Australia, we can gather the following crucial facts;
•Asylum applications from Malaysians lodged while within Australia in the last financial year topped 3500, more than double the total for 2014-15 even though Malaysia is a stable and functioning state, new figures show.
•Immigration department figures show 87 per cent of these applications are refused. Of the reviews conducted by the Migration and Refugee Division of the Administrative Appeals Tribunal, 88 per cent validate the original decision.
•The tribunal processed more than 2000 reviews last financial year — a fourfold increase on 2014-15 — representing almost half of its protection claim caseload.
•Details of the recent flood of onshore asylum applications from Malaysia, which totalled just 294 in 2013-4, are contained in documents published on the department’s website.
•In 2014-15, 1401 Malaysians applied for asylum from within Australia. That total surged to 3549 in the 2015-16 year.
Baca lagi petikan kenyataan Vicknaraj Thanarajah:
"Apart from the above financial and legal considerations, these workers need to be aware of the political considerations that are associated with the Horticulture industry in Australia specifically the Fruit Picking Jobs.
The truth is, this is not a new issue; the Malaysians are just a latest wave of workers that are being used by the syndicates as work-stock. Prior to in recent years this there was an uproar on the abuse of Pacific Islanders as illegal workforce and as a result of an inquiry, the illegal workforce have significantly reduce from the Pacific Island.
It is my personal opinion the Malaysians are merely filling in a temporary gap left by the prior inquiry in relation to the Pacific islanders. What the Malaysian migrants need to realise, that the labour dilemma is soon to be solve (at least in part); because a political solution has been reached recently.
The Immigration Department of Australia will be launching a special class of visa (416) to enable Pacific islanders to work in the horticulture industry seasonally. This is supposed to commence by the 19th of November 2016.
Unfortunately Malaysia is not on the list as that particular visa caters for Pacific Islanders.
The hypocrisy of politics are blinding, the blatant fact remains that there is a need for workers in the horticulture industry especially in rural Australia, and the industry and the syndicates are filling that gap and need.
The syndicates take advantage on this legal and economic arbitrage simply because workers are voiceless because of their legal status in Australia. 
Rhetorically, Corporations, Farmers and Authorities, at the Federal, State and Local Government manage the blame efficiently and seamlessly each respectively pleading ignorance of the existence of such syndicates and illegal workforce.
This plea of ignorance is laughable, especially with the example of the case of Swan Hill a rural town in regional Victoria is swarming with Malaysians Workforce.
The issue and the challenge now is whether the Australia Government specifically the Minister responsible for Immigration is going to provide an empty political retort by conveniently electing to enforce a pre-existing law or a sound policy resolution that is sustainable and future proof for all those affected by the labour shortage.
For the sake Human Dignity and Decency, I challenge the Minister to extend the same opportunity for Malaysians to enable them to apply as seasonal workers in the Horticultural Industry.
Alternative expand the quota of Sub Class 462 Work Holiday Visa which is currently fixed at 100 visa for Malaysian per annum.
Saya juga sependapat dengan Vicknaraj yang berharap ada sinar untuk rakyat Malaysia bekerja di ladang-ladang secara sah supaya nasib mereka lebih terjamin.
PM Najib pun dah jumpa dengan PM Australia, Malcom Turnbull di APEC, Lima, Peru, kelmarin.
Malaysia, Australia bincang isu kedatangan migran
LIMA, Peru 20 Nov. - Kerjasama berkaitan kedatangan migran secara tidak sekata adalah antara topik yang disentuh dalam perbincangan dua hala Malaysia dan Australia di luar persidangan Kerjasama Ekonomi Asia Pasifik (APEC) di ibu negara Peru semalam.
Perdana Menteri, Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak yang mengadakan pertemuan dengan Perdana Menteri Australia, Malcolm Turnbull berkata, Australia dalam pertemuan itu meminta kerjasama Malaysia untuk membendung isu pelarian, yang menghantui negara berkenaan ekoran kebanjiran migran itu.
"Beliau (Turnbull) mahu bendung masalah migran ini yang dikaitkan dengan permerdagangan manusia," katanya kepada wartawan Malaysia di sini selepas menghadiri program hari pertama Mesyuarat Pemimpin Ekonomi APEC.
Antara kerjasama itu adalah melalui pertukaran laporan risikan dan melakukan larangan rasmi iaitu dengan mengambil tindakan sekiranya migran berkenaan melalui perairan negara, katanya.
Kita harap pertemuan ini dapat merintis jalan ke arah rundingan yang akan memberi manfaat kepada rakyat Malaysia yang mahu bekerja di Australia secara sah dalam sektor kemahiran rendah.
NOTA: Ada beberapa soalan Saudara Saharudin Jang yang perlu saya jawab.
1- Apakah keburukan yg ada pada rakyat malaysia bekerja di malaysia.
Keburukan? Saya dan jutaan rakyat Malaysia lain tetap kerja macam biasa. Memang ada kelemahan tertentu seperti gaji yang tak setara dengan kos sara hidup. Saya sebagai rakyat pun buat 2-3 kerja untuk survive. Dan buat masa ini saya belum terfikir perlu bekerja di negara orang secara haram untuk survive.
2- Adakah baik untuk kerajaan malaysia jika aliran wang tunai dari aussie masuk kemalaysia dan dihabiskan untuk membayar cukai & gst?
Betul tapi sepatutnya dilakukan secara sah. Pekerja haram tidak mebayar cukai kepada kerajaan Australia dan duit berkenaan mengalir ke Malaysia secara tak sah.
3- Ramai pekerja di aussie nie akan terdidik dgn cara hidup di aussie x boleh wat huru hara bising n sabagainya yg menganggu privasi org lain. Betul atau tidak?
Betul lah. Mematuhi undang-undang perkara yang mulia, begitulah juga undang-undang Imigresen di Australia. Kenapa tak hormat pula?
Kalau setakat nak didik supaya tak bising, kat Malaysia pun boleh. Hormati hak jiran tu kan ajaran Islam.
4- Pepatah orang dahulu jauh berjalan luas pengalaman.
Betul ke tidak.
1000 peratus saya sokong. Sebab saya sendiri suka berjalan. Sejak 2006 sampai sekarang, dah 24-25 negara saya dah pergi.
Pada 2010 saya berekspedisi dengan tiga lagi kawan naik motosikal dari KL ke London dalam masa 2 bulan. Di sepanjang perjalanan saya jumpa ramai rakyat Malaysia yang berjaya, tak ada seorang pun daripada mereka ni bekerja secara haram.
Bulan Ogos lepas, saya berada di Rio de Janeiro, Brazil selama tiga minggu untuk liputan sukan Olimpik Rio2016.
Saya pun kenal ramai lejen-lejen hardcore overlander yang dah pusing dunia, mereka tak der pula nak kutuk-kutu Malaysia. Jangan baru jejak kaki di satu negara, dah rasa Malaysia ni serba tak kena.
5- Berapakah komisyen yang bro saiful haizan terima daei egent egent pembuat bridging visa. Yg lebih membahayakan kedudukan malaysia pada PRU 14 nanti. Setiap pemegang visa a & c x boleh balik kemalaysia tau. Camner diorg nk undi BN namti. Heheheh.
Apa punya soalan ni. Apa kaitan dengan ejen buat bridging visa? Sepatutnya mereka yang marah dengan saya.
Kalau tak boleh balik, pergilah mengundi di kedutaan. Asalkan berdaftar dengan SPR.
Akmar pula ada cakap yang Imigresen Australia tangkap orang Malaysia sebab Najib nak rakyat balik undi dia.
Hahahaha...hal politik tak perlu masuk lah bro. Tak habis-habis dengan politik.
Terima kasih kerana membaca ke peringkat ini. Saya menghargainya kerana selepas ini saya tidak lagi mengulas isu ini secara detail di FB.
*Share jika bermanfaat*
Salam hormat,
Saiful Haizan
Besut, Terengganu


          Bajet Sarawak 2017 Masih Fokus Dengan Pembangunan Luarbandar   

Kerajaan Negeri Sarawak konsisten memperuntukkan sebahagian besar dari Bajet negeri ini kepada pembangunan pada tahun hadapan.

Ketua Menteri Datuk Patinggi Tan Sri Haji Adenan Satem dalam pembentangan Bajet Sarawak 2016 sebentar tadi mengumumkan kerajaan masih lagi mengekalkan penekanan terhadap pembangunan iaitu sejumlah RM 5.928 bilion atau 73 peratus diperuntukkan untuk tujuan berkenaan. 

Manakala RM 2.206 bilion atau 27 peratus daripada belanjawan ini adalah untuk tujuan perbelanjaan operasi. 

Belanjawan tahun lepas juga turut menyaksikan komitmen kerajaan membangunkan kawasan luar bandar di mana sejumlah RM 2.982 bilion diperuntukkan untuk tujuan ini. 

Kerajaan negeri juga mencadangkan sejumlah RM 817 juta peruntukan bagi memacu inisiatif transformasi negeri Sarawak. 

"Fokus belanjawan kali ini juga adalah untuk menjadikan pengurusan kewangan negeri lebih effektif dan sistem penyampaian yang lebih effisien," kata Adenen persidangan hari pertama Dewan Undangan Negeri (DUN) Sarawak Ke-18 yang sedang berlangsung pagi ini.-UnReportedNews™®

          特売 キッコーマンのポン酢   
特売 今日のアマゾントラッカー最安値更新ランキングに、Amazon Add-on Program対象商品、Kikkoman Ponzu Sauce, Bottle, 10 Ounce(296mL)がランクインしました。ただ今、59% offの、 $4.71 → $1.94 & $25以上で送料無料 です。昨日より$2.71値下がり、最安値記録を更新致しました。 Add-on Program対象商品(Add-On Items)には、のマークが表示されています。カートに入れる際に、 のところを使うだけです。Add-On Itemsだけの購入でも、通常の商品とミックスしてもOK。条件は、全部の合計金額が$25以上の場合に購入が可能・送料無料になります。 Amazon Primeの方も、合計金額が$25以上のオーダーの時にのみ購入が可能になり、FREE Two-Day Shippingで送料無料になります。 (合計金額が$25以下の場合、Add-on ItemsはSaved for Laterのところに自動で保存されます。画面右側の”Cart”をクリックするとご覧頂けます)
          Rakyat Sarawak Matang, Perhimpunan Bersih 5 Kuching Hambar   

Biarpun promosi secara besar-besaran diadakan sejak beberapa minggu lepas, Himpunan Bersih 5 Kuching ternyata mendapat sambutan yang hambar apabila cuma kurang dari 500 peserta yang muncul pada perhimpunan Bersih 5 perhimpunan tersebut di Panggung Udara petang tadi.

Mereka yang mula berkumpul bermula jam 4.00 petang tadi di sekitar kawasan Panggung Udara berdekatan Dewan Suarah Kuching. 

Kehadiran Ahli Dewan Undangan Negeri Kota Sentosa, Chong Chen Jen yang juga Pemgerusi DAP Sarawak juga nyata gagal menarik minat warga Kuching/Sarawak ke perhimpunan tersebut.

Pihak polis dan angota penguatkuasa Dewan Bandaraya Kuching Utara turut melakukan kawalan keselamatan di kawasan sekitar.

Penahanan Pengerusi Bersih 2.0 Maria Chin Abdullah semalam di bawah Akta Kesalahan Keselamatan (Langkah-langkah Khas) 2012 (Sosma) yang membolehkan beliau boleh ditahan lanjut sehingga 28 hari mungkin telah menggerunkan ramai peserta. -UnReportedNews™®

          Perhimpunan BERSIH Tidak Diperlukan Di Sarawak   

KUCHING: Masyarakat Sarawak yang terkenal dengan kesopanan dan hormat-menghormati di kalangan masyarakat pelbagai kaum di negeri ini menolak penganjuran Perhimpunan BERSIH 5.0 yang disifatkan sebagai tidak perlu sehingga boleh menganggu ketenteraman awam dan memecahbelahkan perpaduan rakyat.

Ini disuarakan Ahli Dewan Undangan Negeri (ADUN) Demak Laut Dr. Hazland bin Abang Hipni yang menyifatkan Perhimpunan BERSIH 5.0 yang dijadualkan diadakan Sabtu ini di Kuching, Kuala Lumpur dan Kota Kinabalu sebagai sangat tidak perlu dan membuang masa.

"Sejak pemimpin pembangkang mewujudkan Perhimpunan BERSIH pada 10 Oktober 2007, keadaan negara sangat huru-hara hingga menjejaskan nama negara di peringkat antarabangsa.

"Malah, Perhimpunan BERSIH 5.0 yang dicanang penganjurnya sejak beberapa bulan lalu dilihat tidak lagi relevan dan telah tersasar daripada tujuan asal BERSIH iaitu mahukan pilihan raya yang adil," katanya ketika diminta mengulas mengenai kedegilan penganjur BERSIH yang tetap mahu adakan perhimpunan BERSIH 5.0 di sini.

Jelas beliau lagi, penganjuran perhimpunan haram yang tidak mendapat permit ini seolah-olah mencabar perundangan yang ada di negara kita biarpun di belakangnya disokong pemimpin politik.

Selain menyimpang daripada tujuan asal Perhimpunan BERSIH, penganjur juga yang terdiri daripada pemimpin dan ahli-ahli daripada parti-parti pembangkang dilihat mempunyai agenda politik yang menyimpang.

"Biarpun jurucakap penganjur bahawa Perhimpunan BERSIH 5.0 ini hanya melibatkan beberapa pertubuhan bukan kerajaan (NGO's), tetapi di belakangnya tetap disertai pemimpin pembangkang yang mempunyai agenda politik untuk menghasut rakyat.

"Tidak pernah satu pun Perhimpunan BERSIH yang pernah diadakan bebas daripada sebarang kontroversi apatah lagi melibatkan pemimpin parti pembangkang.

"Mengambil kira Perhimpunan BERSIH yang diadakan sebelum ini jelas tidak aman, biadap dan menganggu ketenteraman awam sehingga menimbulkan kontroversi besar yang menjejaskan negara," ujarnya lagi.

Terdahulu, Pesuruhjaya Polis Sarawak, Datuk Mazlan Mansor ketika mengulas mengenai Perhimpunan BERSIH 5.0 memberitahu penganjuran perhimpunan itu tidak mempunyai kelulusan di lokasi yang dinyatakan mereka kerana kawasan itu sedang dalam proses baikpulih seperti yang dinyatakan Datuk Bandar Kuching Utara (DBKU) sebelum ini.

Menurut Mazlan lagi, perhimpunan tanpa notis yang mempunyai agenda tersendiri dan tidak mendapat kelulusan, peserta harus menanggung risiko sendiri jika diambil tindakan. -UnReportedNews™®

          Architect and 9/11 Memorial Both Evolved Over the Years   
How Michael Arad evolved from a hot-headed novice to a more temperate veteran while building a landmark....
          En los juzgados de familia de Madrid, destapando el maltrato de los equipos psicosociales contra los niños en los divorcios   
Viernes, 23 de Junio, 2017

3 padres separados repartieron octavillas en los juzgados de Madrid ubicados en la calle Francisco Gervás, contra los informes de los equipos psicosociales que tanto daño causan a los hijos en los procesos de familia, pues aunque que cuesta creer, son estos psicólogos y trabajadores sociales quienes llevan décadas avalando la orfandad de los hijos de padres separados, y todo ellos bajo la consideración de la protección del interés del menor.

De izquierda a derecha, Víctor Bravo, Eugenio Marín y Manuel Romeral, se plantaron en los juzgados de Familia madrileños el pasado jueves. En principio se encontraban Manuel y Eugenio, pero por casualidades Víctor pasaba por allí y no dudó un instante en sumarse a ellos.

Los técnicos que conforman el equipo psicosocial que emite el informe al juzgado en los procesos de familia son un conjunto formado por un profesional de la psicología y otra persona de los trabajadores sociales. Se supone que estos profesionales, y más el psicólogo o la psicóloga, deben tienen amplia formación sobre la protección de los menores, y el dolor de los hijos en los procesos de familia, pero la realidad es que la mayor parte de ellos forma parte del sistema de género que pretende mantener la imposición de la custodia materna y cuyo objetivo es el de impedir que los hijos tras el divorcio o la separación puedan seguir disfrutando y disponiendo de tanto los cuidados y atenciones de su madre como los de su padre.

Es tan vergonzoso la actitud de estos profesionales que durante sus entrevistas avasallan, intimidan e imponen criterios, incluso a los niños con quienes se entrevistan a solas, Se han dado casos donde la madre ha sustraído (delito sin condena, pues es la madre quien aleja al menor a miles de kilómetros del padre y su entorno social) a los menores, y una vez que ha pasado el proceso donde para lograr que una inocente criatura prefiera vivir en otro país alejado de su padre, se dá al menor todo tipo de caprichos y gustos (se le compra), el menor aprende y experimenta por la vía de los hechos que en ese nuevo entorno familiar -conformado únicamente por la madre y el padrastro- percibe que no es querido ni valorado, el menor llega un momento que entra en un proceso de depresión y malestar que manifiesta a las claras la intención de vivir con su padre. Bien, pues sometido el menor a la exploración de la psicóloga y trabajadora social, y manifestando y reiterando el menor su deseo que no vivir más en aquel país (y no por odio a su madre), la experta en psicología pretendía imponer al menor el criterio de que su pensamiento debía contener el deseo de vivir en ese país junto a su madre.
Esta profesional de los juzgados de una conocida y amplia localidad madrileña, repetía y repetía al menor que su deseo no podía ser otro que el de convivir con su madre y su padrastro y que se tenía que olvidar de la pretensión de vivir junto a su padre..

Víctor Bravo
          Una condena de 720 euros a una mujer que intentó asfixiar a un bebé y además se permite que la mujer siga cuidando niños   
Jueves, 22 de Junio, 2017

Se identifica la condenada como Mercedes G. S., una mujer de Zaragoza condenada a 720 euros por el intento de asesinato de un bebé al que cuidaba. Intentó asfixiar a la criatura, pero ni siquiera resulta inhabilitada como cuidadora de otros niños o ancianos.

La familia Xenia Cabello, la familia de la víctima, se muestra con asombro tras la sentencia que ni siquiera inhabilita a esta cuidadora para ejercer la misma actividad profesional bajo la cual ha estado a punto de acabar con la vida de una criatura.

El motivo por el cual sobre la acusada recae una mera multa que ni llega a los 1000 euros es porque en el caso los magistrados que conforman el Tribunal de la Audiencia aplicaron la eximente del "desistimiento", prevista en el artículo 16 del Código Penal.
  • que a la acusada se le eximiera del delito de intento de asesinato por entender que no consumó el crimen, que antes de matar al bebé optó por dejar de asfixiarle y que, por tanto, bastaría con condenarla a una multa por lesiones y a una indemnización de tan solo 500 euros. 
  • podrá seguir trabajando como niñera porque el tribunal que la ha juzgado no la ha condenado por intento de asesinato y la sentencia tampoco la inhabilita para ejercer profesionalmente como cuidadora de niños.
  • que a la acusada se le eximiera del delito de intento de asesinato por entender que no consumó el crimen, que antes de matar al bebé optó por dejar de asfixiarle y que, por tanto, bastaría con condenarla a una multa por lesiones y a una indemnización de tan solo 500 euros.
  • cuando llegaron a casa, los padres se encontraron a su hijo con unas extrañas manchas en el rostro. En el hospital, los médicos lo tuvieron claro: había sido asfixiado.
artículo completo
Una sentencia permite a una mujer seguir trabajando como niñera tras intentar matar a un bebé
          Una mujer 20 años menor que su marido le asesina e intenta quemar su cadáver para hacer desaparecer sus restos   
Miércoles, 21 de Junio, 2017

El hombre español de 67 años, y ella una mujer de 47 ha acabado con su vida y tras ello ha intentado meter fuego a su cuerpo para hacer desaparecer su cadáver.

El homicidio sucedió en Madrigalejo (Cáceres), en la calle Ciudad de la Barriada de San Juan, y ya se desvela que el hombre fue apuñalado por la mujer antes de ser quemado. Un vecino vió a la mujer, Julia, subir a un vehículo acompañado por un hombre.

El cuerpo del hombre (Pepe "el sonrisas") ha quedado calcinado, por lo que las labores de investigación serán más difíciles.

  • La presunta homicida de Madrigalejo, de nacionalidad española, apuñaló a su pareja sentimental, José Sánchez (conocido en la población como Pepe ‘Sonri’)
  • la investigación considera que el homicidio se produjo hace 2 días y que la mujer ha estado conviviendo con el cuerpo de la víctima todo este tiempo en la vivienda hasta que hoy lunes ha decidido deshacerse del cuerpo empleando el fuego
  • hace años enviudó para después iniciar una nueva relación sentimental con la que ahora presuntamente le ha causado la muerte

Una mujer mata a su pareja en Madrigalejo y trata de deshacerse del cuerpo quemando el cadáver
El asesinado en Madrigalejo fue apuñalado antes de que lo quemaran
La detenida en Madrigalejo por matar y quemar a su pareja sigue en las dependencias del Guardia Civil
          Albert Rivera el sábado 24 en Madrid abordará la custodia compartida   
Martes, 20 de Junio, 2017

A las 11 horas de la mañana, el sábado 24 de Junio, en la calle Augusto Figueroa, 24, junto al Mercado San Antón (Madrid), en el Espacio Trapezio, Albert Rivera y Patricia Reyes, serán los actores de un encuentra organizado por la formación naranja que abordará los nuevos modelos de familia, entre los que sin duda se encuentran las familias monoparentales.

Será inevitable abordar la custodia compartida, pues ellos mismos han presentado hoy en el Congreso de los Diputados una PNL a favor de regular la custodia compartida como norma.

En la imagen tienes la dirección de correo electrónica donde has de confirmar tu presencia en el acto.

Encuentro Cs "Nuevos Modelos de Familia" - con Albert Rivera y Patricia Reyes

Espacio Trapezio. Calle Augusto Figueroa, 24 (Mercado San Antón). Madrid

CIUDADANOS defiende la PNL a favor de la custodia compartida en el Congreso de los Diputados 20-06-2017

          CIUDADANOS defiende la PNL a favor de la custodia compartida en el Congreso de los Diputados 20-06-2017   
Martes, 20 de Junio, 2017

La proposición no de ley instado en la cámara parlamentaria por el grupo de CIUDADANOS se ha presentado hoy. En su defensa habló Melisa Rodríguez.

Una España que en pleno Siglo XXI maltrata a través de la legislación a los niños  cuando considera que tras la separación el poder seguir bajo la crianza, el amparo y la educación de tanto el padre como la madre, debe ser la excepción.

Sólo algunas comunidades autónomas se distinguen del resto, pues en su legislación foral han contemplado la custodia compartida diferente a la excepción del artículo 92 del Còdigo Civil.

CIUDADANOS exige la custodia compartida como preferente para terminar con los hijos huérfanos de padre vivo

Ciudadanos Canarias
Melisa Rodriguez en Congreso de los Diputados (20 de Junio de 2017)
          Ciudadanos exige la custodia compartida como preferente para terminar con los hijos huérfanos de padre vivo   
Martes, 20 de Junio, 2017

Hoy se debate en el Congreso de los Diputados una Proposición no de ley, instado por CIUDADANOS, y que esperemos obtenga el apoyo del Partido Popular, pues PSOE y PODEMOS han demostrado hasta el momento mostrarse en contra de la custodia compartida.

Mañana martes 20 de Junio se debate en el Congreso la PNL a favor de la custodia compartida

Por parte de CIUDADANOS, la noticia cita a Melisa Rodríguez, y por el PP sale la ministra de Sanidad, Servicios Sociales e Igualdad, Dolors Montserrat,

moción en la que insta al Gobierno a que en el plazo de tres meses se realicen las modificaciones oportunas para que el Código Civil y las leyes concordantes recojan la guardia y custodia compartida como una modalidad preferente, tal y como recoge la jurisprudencia del Tribunal Supremo para casos de separación y divorcio.

artículo completo

No queremos más hijos huérfanos de padre vivo

Ciudadanos exige la custodia compartida como preferente
No más niños/as huerfanos de padres y madres vivos
          Los medios de información restan importancia a la violencia femenina colocando noticias de violencia de género   
Martes, 20 de Junio, 2017

Cuando abres el enlace fuente para leer el artículo y acceder a la información lo primero que nos encontramos son dos noticias relacionadas con la violencia de género. Es una de las estrategias de los medios de información de género para restar importancia al lector sobre la violencia femenina.

Estos de medios de información y comunicación se lucran también de los 24.000 millones anuales que Europa destina a España para esta materia, con lo cual contribuyen a los intereses de género.

En la noticia una mujer española de 46 años ha sido detenida por la Guardia Civil acusada de apuñalar a un varón de 51 años, su pareja. De haber sido al revés, el hombre el acusado de apuñalar a su pareja, hubiera sido un delito de violencia de género, y seguro que además de no encontrar los enlaces de otras noticias en primer lugar, el medio fuente hubiera colocado una foto como mínimo del lugar de los hechos, sino hubiera encontrado otra que causará mayor impacto al lector.

Nos tenemos que ir a medios por no subvencionados o sometidos al poder de la ideología de género, para leer titulares muy distintos y encontrar una imagen que represente la violencia femenina.

Violencia Feminista: grave un hombre tras ser apuñalado por su mujer en Madrid

Tampoco aparece la calificación de maltratadoar o agresora, ni siquiera como supuesta, pues la intención es clara de convertir los términos en exclusivamente masculinos. Aquí en este aspecto los agentes lingüísticos de género no creen importante su intervención.

Intervino el Summa, y la víctima, un varón apuñalado, fue trasladado al Hospital de Villalba.

varón de 51 años que presentaba una puñalada profunda, de unos ocho centímetros de longitud, en la zona abdominal, al parecer, causada por un cuchillo.

artículo completo
Detenida una mujer por apuñalar presuntamente a su pareja en Collado Villalba
          No son feminazis son feministas que buscan más ventajas que el machismo y al patriarcado que tanto critican   
Martes, 20 de Junio, 2017

La autora del artículo intenta transmitir al público la idea de que quienes utilizan la palabra "feminazi" lo hacen bajo la intención del insulto simplemente. Pero lejos de tal criterio se mueven unos hechos claros que han provocado y dado lugar a la derivada del feminismo y asociada con la época de Hitler y los nazis.

No es necesario recurrir a esta derivada, el movimiento que abandera la enseña del feminismo ha mostrado no con palabras, sino con hechos, que lejos de pretender una igualdad plena entre varones y mujeres se esconde el egoísmo propio del ser humano que quiere lo mejor para él (en este caso ella) aunque ello suponga pisotear a sus iguales (en este caso varones) para la consecución de sus fines.

La teoría del feminismo dista mucho llevada una vez a la práctica. Es el feminismo que maneja las riendas del poder quien se opone por ejemplo a eliminar la figura de la mujer al cuidado de los niños y al mando del hogar. Es este feminismo quien pretende que la educación machista siga perpetua en este siglo XXI, pues su oposición disfrazada al régimen de la custodia compartida lo evidencia. Conlleva además la custodia materna que la mujer siga mantenida por su esposo o exesposo, ya que uno de las primas que el feministas concede a las madres para que renuncien a una independencia económica y desarrollo laboral sin fronteras es un sueldo gratis fijo y con aumento cada año, lo que conocemos vulgarmente por "pensión de alimentos".

El anterior es un ejemplo, como bien en el ámbito penal, pudiéramos citar la ley de violencia de género, una ley con derecho de autor propio, que sólo coloca al hombre como culpable frente a la mujer como víctima. Otra de las herramientas que el feminismo actual ha creado para conferir una serie de ventajas a la mujer a cambio de renunciar a su independencia, pues a través de esta ley se otorgan una serie de ventajas a la mujer, entre ellas mantener la guarda y custodia de los hijos, y con ello la atribución de la vivienda familiar y esa fuente de sustento económico del exmarido que es quien termina convirtiéndose en su mantenedor económico.

No vimos al movimiento feminista luchando por el eliminación del servicio militar impuesto exclusivamente para los varones, pero ahora que mantienen unas cuotas de poder sobre los políticos, vemos que este feminismo es en realidad otro sistema fuente de la desigualdad, que supera con creces a ese machismo y patriarcado origen de su aparición.

Articulo de Patricia Ruiz Rustarazo:
Por suerte, como ya se hiciera con el ‘feminismo’, las mujeres en esta lucha nos estamos apropiando de ese término y decimos a boca llena: «Sí, soy feminazi». Porque sí: somos las que no se van a callar aunque traten de insultarnos por señalar los privilegios de ellos sobre ellas. Porque quien queda retratado es el que recupera el vocablo ‘nazi’ para referirse a una lucha tan necesaria como esta.
artículo completo
De feministas a feminazis
          Mañana martes 20 de Junio se debate en el Congreso la PNL a favor de la custodia compartida   
Lunes, 19 de Junio, 2017

Mañana martes tendrá lugar en el Congreso de los Diputados el debate por la proposición no de ley a favor de la custodia compartida. Tenemos a CIUDADANOS, quien presenta la PNL,y con casi seguridad al PP, a favor de que el Código Civil deje de contemplar la custodia compartida como una excepción.

La proposición no de ley a favor de la custodia compartida será presentada por CIUDADANOS, y creemos que contará con el apoyo del Partido Popular.
El proyecto es fruto de las negociaciones de varias asociaciones que trabajan a favor de la custodia compartida desde hace ya décadas: UEFACC, Confederación con papá y mama, Abuelos Separados de sus nietos, Custodia Paterna y SOS Papá.
Tras las reuniones y negociaciones con este grupo parlamentario desde el mes de Diciembre del pasado año, ahora se consigue que inste al Gobierno para que en un plazo máximo de 3 meses presente un proyecto de ley de custodia compartida como régimen normalizado para los hijos tras la ruptura de pareja de sus progenitores, que rompa con la actual excepción que contempla aún el artículo 92 del Código Civil desde la reforma del año 2005 del PSOE.
Ya sucedió el año pasado en la asamblea de Madrid, y también gracias a las dos formaciones citadas en el párrafo anterior.

Enlaces e información relacionada con la moción aprobada a favor del derecho de los hijos de padres separados a la custodia compartida en la Asamblea de Madrid:
C's Madrid cumple el acuerdo firmado en 2011 con las asociaciones de custodia compartida
Madrid da un paso adelante para acabar con la injusticia de hijos huérfanos de padre vivo
 PSOE y PODEMOS en contra de la moción aprobada por la custodia compartida en la Asamblea de Madrid
Las asociaciones feministas enfadadas porque la Asamblea de Madrid muestra su apoyo a la custodia compartida
La moción aprobada en Madrid por la custodia compartida provoca una reunión en Málaga

El trabajo constante en los años rinde sus frutos:

imagen del año 2011
C's Madrid acuerda con la asociaciones de padres separados su compromiso por la custodia compartida

año 2015, día del padre en Cibeles

Aguado (C's) se manifiesta a favor de la custodia compartida

imagen del pasado 16 de Junio, tras la aprobación en la Asamblea de Madrid
Con Cristina Cifuentes (2ª izquierda) e Isabel González (3ª derecha), del PP
vídeo completo de la Moción

La semana del 19 de Junio se debate una PNL de custodia compartida en el Congreso de los Diputados
          Yvraine - Emissaire d'Ynnead    
Yvraine est l'émissaire d'Ynnead et une magnifique figurine en vente chez Planet Wargame pour 17€.
Yvraine is the emissary of Ynnead and a magnificent figure for sale at Planet Wargame for 17 €.

          Sainte Céleste enlève le haut   

Suite à de nombreuses demandes, Wargame Exclusive sort une Sœur Celestia avec la poitrine à l'air.
C'est toujours en 28mm et toujours pour 40K.
Following numerous requests, Wargame Exclusive releases a Sister Celestia with the breast offered.
It is always in 28mm and always for 40K.

          LA CICATRIZ DE LA CESÁREA SERÁ CONSIDERADA «VIOLENCIA MACHISTA» (Muchos hombres encerrados en calabozos creerán que es cierto)   
Lunes, 19 de Junio, 2017

La noticia no es cierta, pero seguro que muchos hombres encerrados en los calabozos bajo el protocolo de la ley de violencia de género, y personas que conocen cuales son las barbaridades y atropellos de esta ley contra los varones, pueden pensar perfectamente que es cierto el mensaje que lanza el titular de la noticia.

Se apoyan como si que es cierto que el feminismo pretende considerar la custodia compartida como una forma más de violencia de género, o como un "pedo" es considerado como violencia de género. Adjuntamos algunas noticias al final de la entrada relacionadas.

Partes de la noticia (que no son ciertas, pero presentadas perfectamente como creíbles):
  • consideradas las cicatrices por cesárea, «violencia contra las mujeres», por ser consecuencia de la conducta machista de quien hubiera sido su pareja, cónyuge, o fruto del vicio o depravación sexual. «toda relación sexual es una violación, el propio acto sexual constituye una invasión machista al cuerpo de la mujer, y por tanto debe ser perseguida», «ya no son sólo las cesáreas, si no el propio hecho de que una mujer pueda quedar embarazada», «Si no aborta es por culpa del sistema que oprime a las mujeres, relegandolas a un segundo plano»
  • «lo importante es animar a las mujeres a denunciar, no importa si hablamos de una cesárea, un herpes vaginal, o que los hombres no paguen todo lo que quieren», «muchas mujeres no se dan cuenta de que sufren violencia hasta la tercera cesárea», «desde nuestra asociación queremos animar a las mujeres a denunciar este tipo de conductas, que suponen una invasión intervencionista machista heteropatriarcal contra el cuerpo de la mujer».

artículo completo

'Themis': "Custodia Compartida, otra forma de violencia de género"

Aumentan la pena de prisión en 6 meses porque la denunciante visitó al hombre en la cárcel
Calabozo y 5 días de arresto para el hombre por mandar a la mierda a su mujer
Condenado a 9 meses de prisión por dar "me gusta" en el perfil de su ex pareja
Condenado a un mes por tirarse un pedo delante de su mujer
Condenado a cuatro meses por tirarle una barra de pan a su pareja
Calabozo y 5 días de arresto para el hombre por mandar a la mierda a su mujer
"Muerta de hambre", es violencia de género
- Enseñar el culo a tu ex es violencia de género
Violencia de Género condena por vejaciones a un hombre que “mandó a chuparla” a su ex mujer en una discusión
Seis meses de cárcel por tomar una cerveza cerca de su ex pareja pese a la orden de alejamiento
-  Absuelto de romper la orden de alejamiento con su exmujer para darle una flor
Denuncia por acoso a su ex pareja, que había fallecido días antes

          Un secretario judicial en contra de la custodia compartida, José Miguel de Frutos, Juzgados de Logroño   
Lunes, 19 de Junio, 2017

Las declaraciones de este señor evidencian su malestar a la hora de acabar con la imposición de la custodia a la madre, con el negocio de género que mantiene a los menores bajo un maltrato judicial tras la sentencia que divorcia a los padres, pues desde ese momento los menores pasan a ser declarados hijos huérfanos de padre vivo. Hijos con un padre, pero con un padre a quien la justicia convierte en un visitante desde el momento que dicta sentencia.

En este caso el protagonista de la entrada es un secretario judicial, cargo que ha pasado a la denominación de "Letrado de la Administración de Justicia". Ejerce su cargo en los juzgados de Logroño.

Tras sus declaraciones se hace visible su postura feminista opuesta a una reforma en el Código Civil, que elimina la excepción que contempla el artículo 92 con respecto a establecer la custodia compartida. Argumentar que la custodia compartida no puede aplicarse en la misma medida que ahora mismo se impone la custodia materna es pretender mantener vigente la práctica machista que aparta a los hijos de sus figuras paternas sólo porque sus padres se separan. Si no fuera por lo delicado que es el tema, y el dolor que acarrea para las familias, menores y adultos, diríamos que es para reír tras las declaraciones de este hombre.

Que una persona a quien se atribuye terminados unos estudios de Derecho, y que además ha accedido a una plaza de la administración del sistema judicial, y sobre quien recae la gran responsabilidad de muchas de las decisiones que los juzgados adoptan y que contribuyen en no pocas ocasiones a la orfandad del menor de un padre que vive  y que lucha y emplea con todas sus fuerzas el ejercer sus responsabilidades parentales con sus hijos, manifiesta en público la duda de que los jueces no van a poder valorar en cada caso que protege el interés del menor, tiene como dirían por tierras andaluzas, "guasa":

«Encuentro bastante difícil el legislar la situación de la guarda y custodia compartida. Hay dos caminos: dejarle al juez amplias facultades para que la establezca o la acuerde o regular con unos requisitos y un casuismo exhaustivo que tampoco creo que sería conveniente»,

A este tipo de personas afincadas en el sistema de género que busca por todos medios apartar a los hijos de su figura paterna, les aterroriza que nuestro actual Código Civil deje el machismo que aún pervive y considera que la custodia compartida en pleno siglo XXI es nociva para los hijos.

Este hombre numera, según su opinión personal, unas razones por las cuales el sistema judicial no debe considerar que para privar a los hijos del derecho a la custodia compartida deba justificarse unas argumentos de peso, y pretende que dicho sistema de custodia compartida bajo el cual son criados y educados los menores antes de la llegada de sus progenitores al juzgado, puede desde la instancia judicial romperse y de inmediato aplicar la práctica más que machista de la custodia a la madre.

  • porque pueda tener problemas el niño (problemas de desarrollo, de salud o de tipo educacional)
  • por problemas de perfil de personalidad entre los padres
  • por alta conflictividad entre los progenitores, o cuando se ve que hay una falta de disponibilidad física o laboral de un progenitor, por ejemplo, modos de vida, horarios laborales...

Una de las excusas que coloca es la del mutuo acuerdo o la del entendimiento entre el padre y la madre, y hay es donde se quita el disfraz, ya que en la actualidad la práctica de la imposición de la custodia a la madre genera que la madre cuando se enfrenta al procesa se sienta con el poder, un poder que lleva al hombre a la aceptación de una serie de puntos que impuestos por la madre, pues sino acudirán al juzgado, y allí todavía un 90% de posibilidades dispone la madre para obtener la custodia monoparental materna.

Un ejemplo el caso del vídeo de la entrada expuesto por debajo del  enlace al artículo fuente.

artículo completo

«Encuentro difícil legislar la situación de la guarda y custodia compartida»
          Haile Selassie    

Haile Selassie fut régent d’Éthiopie de 1916 à 1930 puis empereur jusqu'en 1974. Il est en vente en 28mm chez 1stCorps pour 2,50£.
Haile Selassie was regent of Ethiopia from 1916 to 1930 then emperor until 1974. It is on sale in 28mm at 1stCorps for 2.50 £.

          Estados Unidos encierra en prisión a las profesoras que abusan sexualmente de menores   
Domingo, 18 de Junio, 2017

Detenida una profesora de matemáticas, Erin Elizabeth McAuliffe, por abusar de 3 menores de edad, alumnos del centro escolar, el cual procedió de inmediato a la expulsión de su centro como profesora.

Tiene 25 años, y fue el director del centro,Todd Pipkin,  donde imparta clases como docente en la localidad de Rocky Mount, en Carolina del Norte (EE.UU.), quien advirtió de los hechos delictivos de su profesora, que de haber sido protagonizados por un maestro varón, se hubieran calificado de pederasta.

La mujer fue detenida y encerrada en prisión a la espera de ser juzgada, y la fianza impuesta asciende a 20.000 euros. Sin duda en España las consecuencias hubieran sido más leves por ser mujer.

  • Contra McAuliffe se han presentado tres cargos de actividad sexual con estudiantes y otro cargo de libertades indecentes con un menor. Delitos considerados muy graves.
  • contactaba con algunos por Facebook, donde ella compartía sugerentes fotografías.
artículo completo

- Dos años de cárcel a un profesora casada y con dos hijos por hacer felaciones a un alumno de 15 años
Detenida una profesora de 42 años por violar a 3 chicos en un instituto
Una madre abusa de 5 amigos menores de edad de su hija en la fiesta organizada en su casa
Los medios no tratan como pederastia cuando una mujer adulta abusa de un menor
Expulsan a una maestra que llevó a un menor a un hotel
Una maestra, detenida por tener relaciones sexuales con seis alumnos en Nueva Jersey
-  Dos profesoras, arrestadas por darle alcohol a sus alumnos y tener sexo con ellos
-  Readmiten a una secretaria que mantuvo una relación sexual con un menor del centro escolar
Despiden a una masajista de 40 años de un equipo de fútbol que realizó una felación a un jugador de 20 años
-   Detenida una profesora por tener sexo con un alumno
Arrestadas dos profesoras en EEUU por montarse un trío con un estudiante
 - Mujer de 36 años voló a través de EE.UU. para tener relaciones sexuales con un niño de 13 años
Condenada a 6 años por desnudar a su hija en internet para disfrute de su novio
Maestra detenida tras tener sexo con alumno de 16 años sin preservativo
14 meses de prisión para una profesora que tuvo sexo con un alumno menor de edad
 - Maestras que tuvieron relaciones sexuales con sus alumnos
Una profesora arrestada cuando su marido la descubrió teniendo sexo con un menor
Detenida una mujer de 38 años por tener sexo con el exnovio de su hija adolescente
Absuelven a la madre acusada de propiciar relaciones sexuales de su hija, de 10 años, con un anciano
Dos profesoras, arrestadas por darle alcohol a sus alumnos y tener sexo con ellos
-  Readmiten a una secretaria que mantuvo una relación sexual con un menor del centro escolar
Despiden a una masajista de 40 años de un equipo de fútbol que realizó una felación a un jugador de 20 años
Condenada a 16 años de prisión por prostituir a su hija menor de edad

Profesora de 27 años mantenía relaciones con un alumno de 17
La profesora que se acostó con un niño de 15 años: «Empezó él»
Condenan a una maestra por aventura lésbica con alumna
Una profesora acusada de violación por emborrachar a adolescentes para tener sexo
Acusan a profesora de violar a un alumno de 14 años
Arrestan a profesora por tener sexo con un alumno y proporcionarle marihuana

Detenida una profesora de matemáticas por tener sexo con tres alumnos menores
Prep school math teacher arrested for having sex with students
          Yak de bataille et cavalerie sur ours polaire.   
Shieldwolf Miniatures propose plusieurs sets fantasy très intéressants en 28mm comme un yak de bataille ou des barbares sur ours polaire.
Shieldwolf Miniatures offers several very interesting fantasy sets in 28mm like a battle yak or female barbarians on polar bears.

          Le retour des Amazones   
Forlorn Hope Games réédite un vieux set de figurines d'Amazones en 25/28mm ce qui me rappelle que je n'ai toujours pas peint ce set depuis 1993...
Forlorn Hope Games recasts an old set of Amazons miniatures in 25/28mm which reminds me that I still have not painted this set since 1993 ...

          Detenido y en el calabozo por violencia de género el presentador de La Cuatro, "El rey chatarrero"   
Domingo, 18 de Junio, 2017

Su nombre es Javier García Roche, fue fichado por La Cuatro (Mediaset), como presentador de un programa contra el maltrato animal, "A cara de perro", y ha sido detenido por los  los Mossos d’Esquadra en Cornellà del Llobregat (Barcelona), bajo la acusación de delito por la ley de violencia de género.

Mediaset ficha al ‘boxeador chatarrero’ para un programa contra el maltrato a los animales

Ha pasado una noche en los calabozos, las acusaciones son amenazas e insultos a su expareja. Según la acusación Javier Roche se presentó en la casa de la chica y destrozó el piso donde reside la chica. Otra de las acusaciones es la difusión de contenido audiovisual pornográfico de su expareja en internet. En concreto son vídeos.

Ya hay manifestaciones para que si son ciertas las acusaciones Cuatro retire el programa que presenta el Rey Chatarrero.
La red social se llenaba rápidamente de comentarios que exigían una aclaración de la noticia y, en caso de confirmarse, que la cadena retirase el programa.

artículo completo
Javier Roche, el ‘Rey Chatarrero’, detenido por violencia de género
          Pick-up Hexy   

Hexy sort ce pick-up en 28mm qui est vendu avec des accessoires et des pneus à plat.
Hexy releases this pickup in 28mm which is sold with accessories and flat tires.

          Una madre que prefirió matar a sus 3 hijos antes que volviesen a ver a su padre   
Sábado, 17 de Junio, 2017

La justicia ordenó que los menores recuperarán el contacto con su figura paterna. Sin embargo la madre de los 3 menores con la colaboración de los abuelos maternos se encargaron de que los menores no volviesen a retomar el contacto nunca más con su padre, al menos vivos.

Tres menores inocentes de un sistema que deja actuar a la madre, y que cuando se decide a aplicar justicia ya en muchos casos además es tarde. En otros casos donde la madre no mata a los hijos, éstos declaran hasta en público que prefieren morir a volver a ver a su padre.

Difundimos esta noticia y sus por menores en este enlace, en donde adjuntamos información sobre casos españoles a cuyas madres manipuladoras encima se les ha premiado e indultado, aparte de ser tratadas por el feminismo como heroínas y ejemplo a seguir por otras madres.

Una madre alienadora mata a sus 3 hijos porque el juez ordena que los menores vuelvan a recuperar el contacto con su padre

Mireya envenenó a sus tres hijos antes de entregárselos a su expareja; los menores sufrían del SAP, es decir, eran persuadidos para odiar al padre" 

artículo completo

Alienación parental, odio hacía el padre
          Nouveautés Crann Tara   
Crann Tara sort plusieurs nouvelles figurines en 28mm pour l'Europe des années 1740-1750.
Crann Tara released several new figures in 28mm for Europe from the years 1740-1750.

          El CGPJ invisibiliza el 99,9% de mujeres condenadas por denuncia falsa.   
Sábado, 17 de Junio, 2017

Todo el texto expuesto en la entrada pertenece al artículo fuente:

“El País” y otros medios, desinforman y aborregan así: “Solo el 0,4% de las denuncias por violencia machista son falsas“.

Los no aborregables vamos al informe oficial que citan, y podemos observar como en ese informe silencian invisibilizando el 100% de mujeres CONDENADAS por denuncia falsa en VioGén, y el 99,9% de investigadas. Para ello no precisas leer sus 251 páginas, con leer las 3 que te cito, te basta para saber como engañan a la población, quienes hablan de el dato de ese informe, tergiversando su ámbito.

En la página de portada ves el TÍTULO del informe: “ESTUDIO SOBRE LA APLICACIÓN DE LA LEY INTEGRAL CONTRA LA VIOLENCIA DE GÉNERO POR LAS AUDIENCIAS PROVINCIALES”. ya te estan diciendo que no estudian la aplicación del codigo penal contra denuncias falsas en audiencias provinciales (APs), y mucho menos en la totalidad de tribunales. (recuerda que por APs solo pasa un 0,26% del total de casos de VioGén, el otro 99,74% pasa por JVM y Juzgados de lo Pernal:

artículo completo
El CGPJ invisibiliza el 99,9% de mujeres condenadas por denuncia falsa.
          Dans les donjons Otherworld   
Grampas ?
Otherworld nous gratifie de quelques nouveautés avec des persos et de mauvaises rencontres de donjons comme cette jolie panthère en 28mm.
Otherworld gives us some new references with characters and bad encounters in dungeons like this pretty panther in 28mm.

          España no respeta el derecho de los hijos de la Carta Europea de Derechos de los niños a relacionarse en igualdad con ambos padres   
Sábado, 17 de Junio, 2017

De la página de Jesús Ayala Carcedo, se presenta una encuesta sobre custodia compartida. El título de dicha entrada fuente hace referencia al derecho incumplido con los menores españoles por los legisladores, pues se contempla el único régimen que permite a los hijos ser cuidados y atendidos por su madre y por su madre tras la separación o divorcio, como una excepción.


Estas a favor de la custodia compartida?

SI, como medida prereferente si no hay limitaciones por alguno de los padres.

NO, perjudica a los niños y las relaciones con sus padres.

La Carta Europea de Derechos del Niño, establece que los menores tienen derecho a gozar de sus progenitores en igualdad de condiciones.
          Los jueces recompensan a las madres que impiden el contado de los hijos con el padre, pero si el padre no paga es castigado   
Jueves, 15 de Junio, 2017

Cuando una madre comete el delito tipificado como sustracción parental, los jueces no actúan y por contra con su actitud pasiva, permiten que los menores sean alejados de su padre y su lugar de nacimiento y aquello que proporciona al niño el necesario arraigo social, y todo porque el machismo que anida en la práctica judicial considera que el derecho de la madre a ser feliz, prima por encima de los derechos de los hijos.

La sentencia de la Audiencia Provincial de Cantabria se apoya para privar al padre del menor de la patria potestad en la jurisprudencia del Tribunal Supremo, y puesto que hablamos del Supremo, vamos a citar un caso donde los componente de esta misma instancia premian a una madre que incurrió en desobediencia judicial cuando impidió que el hijo a quien se había llevado a Estados Unidos, pudiese volver a España para mantener una mínima relación paterno-filial. Esta madre fue recompensada anulando los magistrados la obligación de esta madre de traer al menor más a España,

El Supremo mantiene la custodia a una madre que se llevo a su hijo a EEUU

Aquí, en el caso presente que ocupa la entrada, los magistrados de la Audiencia Provincial de Cantabria, contradicen la decisión adoptada por el juzgado de Primera Instancia e Instrucción nº 5 de Torrelavega, el cual no consideró aplicar la privación de la patria potestad al padre, pues ello supone un perjuicio contra el menor. No olvidemos que de esa forma el padre ya no goza siquiera del derecho de solicitar información -ni siquiera médica o escolar- sobre su hijo. Y en este caso el menor tiene aún 11 años, ni siquiera ha entrado en la preadolesciencia, y puede necesitar en el futuro, y mucho, a su padre. Si ya de visitas es casi imposible ejercer de padre, sin derecho a información aún más. Los menores se aprovechan de ese estado (padre visitante), y no precisamente juega a su favor.

Esta sentencia de la Audiencia Provincial de Cantabria revoca la del Juzgado de Primera Instancia e Instrucción nº 5 de Torrelavega. La magistrada de 1ª instancia considero que los hechos consumados por el progenitor paterno no suponían un motivo tan especial y excepcional como para privar al menor del derecho de que su padre pueda preocuparse por él. La patria potestad para un padre no custodia es papel para limpiarse el culo tras acudir al retrete, pero carecer de ella supone privar al padre de requerir cualquier documentación sobre su hijo.

Por otro lado la magistrada de 1ª instancia, y velando por el interés del menor, considero que para recuperar la relación paterno-filial sería conveniente modificar el tiempo de estancias (régimen de visitas) de forma que el contacto entre el padre y el hijo se produjera de forma gradual o progresivo, y para ello señaló también la intervención de un punto de encuentro.

la privación de la patria potestad "reviste un carácter excepcional" y que debe basarse en "circunstancias extremas".

Los magistrados de la Audiencia Provincial de Cantabria han despojado a un menor que entrará en breve en la etapa de la adolescencia del derecho a que su padre pueda al menos mantenerse informado del menor. Que el padre no pagase la pensión de alimentos, seguro que es uno de los puntos de mayor influencia para la decisión de la Audiencia, pues es considerado como abandono de familia.

Partes de la sentencia de la Audiencia de Cantabria:

  • "Los hechos revelan un grave incumplimiento de los deberes inherentes a la patria potestad", según el fallo de la corte.
  • "La total desatención personal que supone la falta de trato alguno entre un padre y su hijo durante su primera infancia, unido a la desatención patrimonial, únicamente corregida recurriendo a la vía ejecutiva, revelan objetivamente un grave incumplimiento de los deberes inherentes a la patria potestad"
  • "además de reducir el riesgo de conflicto entre progenitores, asegura al niño una estabilidad y seguridad que ha de redundar en su beneficio y viene a formalizar una situación que de hecho es la que ha venido sucediendo la mayor parte de su vida"

Privan de la patria potestad a un padre que no ha contactado con su hijo en ocho años
Pierde la patria potestad por no mantener contacto con su hijo en 8 años
Privan de la patria potestad a un padre que no ha tenido contacto con su hijo en ocho años
          Lo que para un varón supone la cárcel por ser juzgado por violencia de género, para una mujer se queda en 5 días sin salir de casa   
Jueves, 15 de Junio, 2017

La Audiencia Provincial de Alicante ratifica la condena impuesta por el juzgado de Instrucción número 4 de Alicante, contra una mujer y madre de un menor hijo de padres separados, que utilizó la red social de Facebook para injuriar a su exmarido y padre del hijo que mantienen en común.

La condena consiste en que la mujer debe cumplir la pena de  5 días sin salir de su casa, más una indemnización a su marido de 300 euros por los daños y ofensas causadas.

Advierte también a la condenada que de incumplir las medidas acordadas en sentencia, incurrirá en delito de desobediencia, y podría ser penado con pena de cárcel. Una pena que de ser al contrario los hechos, que fuese el hombre quien hubiera vertido los comentarios (enlaces al final de la noticia) en la red contra su exmujer, el hombre ya habría pasado por los calabozos nada más interponer la mujer la denuncia, ya que hubiese entrado en juego el protocolo que establece la ley de violencia de género, y hubiese pasado a ser localizado y detenido para ser encerrado en un calabozo como medida provisional.
  • La mujer escribió de su excónyuge que era un "hipócrita" y que "mientras el niño estaba en el hospital, él se acostaba con otra"
  • es "indudable" el contenido ofensivo en las expresiones que escribió la mujer.
  • la gravedad de la publicación radica "en su exposición a los usuarios de la red social Facebook con la concurrencia de amistades, compañeros de trabajo y, sobre todo, familiares que tanto el denunciante como la denunciada tienen en común, tras haber mantenido una relación conyugal".
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Aumentan la pena de prisión en 6 meses porque la denunciante visitó al hombre en la cárcel
Calabozo y 5 días de arresto para el hombre por mandar a la mierda a su mujer
Condenado a 9 meses de prisión por dar "me gusta" en el perfil de su ex pareja
Condenado a un mes por tirarse un pedo delante de su mujer
Condenado a cuatro meses por tirarle una barra de pan a su pareja
Calabozo y 5 días de arresto para el hombre por mandar a la mierda a su mujer
"Muerta de hambre", es violencia de género
- Enseñar el culo a tu ex es violencia de género
Violencia de Género condena por vejaciones a un hombre que “mandó a chuparla” a su ex mujer en una discusión
Seis meses de cárcel por tomar una cerveza cerca de su ex pareja pese a la orden de alejamiento
-  Absuelto de romper la orden de alejamiento con su exmujer para darle una flor
Denuncia por acoso a su ex pareja, que había fallecido días antes

Condenada a no salir de casa durante 5 días por injuriar a su exmarido en Facebook
          Los hijos que viven bajo la guarda y custodia de sus padres también quieren un semáforo igual que los gays   
Jueves, 15 de Junio, 2017

La alcaldesa madrileña, Manuela Carmena, ex magistrada, ha gastado el dinero de sus contribuyentes en instalar semáforos con gays. En ellos estarán representados los diferentes modelos que existen dentro del colectivo LGTB, y para ello ha utilizado 21.747 euros procedentes del dinero de los impuestos recaudados de los contribuyentes para la instalación de semáforos que representen la unión de este colectivo en 72 cruces y con 288 lentes.

La oposición ha dejado solos a los miembros de PODEMOS en esta iniciativa  apoyada por los concejales Rita Maestre, Pablo Soto, Mauricio Valiente, Jorge García Castaño, Marta Higueras o Nacho Murgui -entre otros-, y los representantes de los colectivos LGTB.

Toda la inversión y gasto generado para la instalación de estos semáforos de género, tienen que ver con la celebración del fin de semana del orgullo gay en Madrid, que dará comienzo el próximo viernes 23 de Junio, y durará hasta el domingo, llamado "World Pride".

Si la Comunidad de Madrid cierra las puertas del metro mucho antes, días tan señalados como nochevieja o nochebuena, cuya afluencia sería masiva y necesaria y reduciría el número de accidentes de coches y los heridos y muertos en esos días, en estos días es justo al contrario. El 1 de Julio el metro estará abierto las 24 horas con el motivo del acto central de la manifestación internacional del orgullo gay. El coste que se genera por dicha acción asciende a 400.000 euros.
  • Los pictogramas se dividen en cuatro bloques de 18 cruces y mostrarán diferentes figuras. Como ha explicado la edil de Medio Ambiente y Movilidad, Inés Sabanés, habrá “semáforos igualitarios, 
  • semáforos inclusivos y semáforos paritarios
  • Hay parejas heterosexuales, homosexuales, mujeres o niños. El Ayuntamiento quiere mostrar así, la diversidad real que ya se vive en las calles
  • Las celebraciones del Orgullo Gay Mundial se prolongarán del viernes 23 de junio al domingo 2 de julio de 2017 y congregarán en la villa a más de dos millones de personas.
Otros enlaces vinculados:
- La policía de Leganés circula con banderas y publicidad del orgullo gay
- PP y VOX piden la retirada de la exposición 'Orgullo de Sevilla' por ser "obscena" y "ofender la moral"
Carmena aumenta la subvención a la fiesta del orgullo gay de 60.000 a 250.000 euros, y las compara con las Fallas o los Sanfermines

Otros enlaces relacionados:
Carmen Serrano a Ada Colau: "Qué manera de ridiculizarnos nosotras mismas"
Colau se gasta 48.158 euros en cortometrajes LGTB para adoctrinar a niños en los colegios
- Asignatura a partir de los 6 años: cine gay
La ideología de género sustituye a los crucifijos en los centros escolares

Manuela Carmena gasta 21.000€ en los 72 semáforos "inclusivos, paritarios e igualitarios
Carmena instala semáforos 'gay friendly' por el World Pride 2017
          Piden 2 años de cárcel para una madre por maltratar a su hijo y amenazar con matar al padre y a la abuela paterna   
Miércoles, 14 de Junio, 2017

Es el Ministerio Fiscal quien pide la pena de 2 años de cárcel para una madre acusada de maltrato habitual a su hijo y de amenazas de muerte al padre y a la abuela paterna del menor

Además, Fiscalía pide también la pena de inhabilitación para el ejercicio de la patria potestad durante 5 años para la madre, más la prohibición de cualquier tipo de comunicación o contacto con el menor a una distancia de 500 metros durante un periodo de 3 años (orden de alejamiento). Más la privación de tenencia y porte de armas por 3 años, y 40 días más de condena por localización permanente, así como las costas del proceso judicial.

Como indemnización económica al menor se pide la suma de 3.000 euros, y como gastos producidos en el Sespa (servicios médicos).

Las acusaciones son tanto por maltrato físico como psicológico de forma reiterada y habitual, a su hijo nacido en el año 2003 (13 ó 14 años), y tras los hechos en fase de juzgar aún, el menor se encuentra bajo la guarda y custodia paterna.
  • le sometió de forma reiterada, al menos durante los años 2015 y 2016, a agresiones injustificadas, tirándole de los pelos, zarandeándole e insultándole con expresiones como "levántate, puto gordo o, si no, te levanto yo".
  • envío un mensaje de texto al padre del menor, diciendo que iba a rebanar el cuello a su madre (abuela paterna del menor), matarlo a él y, si hacia falta, también al niño, mensaje que vio el menor. 
  • Como consecuencia de estos hechos el menor sufre un trastorno adaptativo CIE -10 con trastornos emocionales, que influyen en su rendimiento académico y temor a salir del domicilio. Actualmente está a tratamiento por psicólogo clínico.

artículo completo
Maltrato de una madre de Gijón a su hijo: "Levántate, puto gordo o, si no, te levanto yo"

Olá meus queridos...

Espero que todos estejam bem...
Eu estou ótima Graças a Deus!!!!
Peço novamente desculpas pelo meu sumiço...
Estou passando rapidinho, porém para deixar notícias MARAVILHOSAS....
TUDO OK com os meus exames...
Fiquem com Deus!!!!
Beijos iluminados...

          Una madre alienadora mata a sus 3 hijos porque el juez ordena que los menores vuelvan a recuperar el contacto con su padre   
Miércoles, 14 de Junio, 2017

La víctima que queda con vida es el padre de los 3 menores asesinados por su madre. Una mujer que había maltratado a sus 3 hijos a través de la manipulación parental, y que cuando vió que la justicia impediría el aislamiento de los menores con su padre acabó con sus vidas y después se suicidó.

El padre se llama Leopoldo Olvera y la asesina, la madre, Mireya Agraz. La abogada del padre, Rocío Medrano, es quien habla del dolor de este padre que ahora ya no podrá ver a sus hijos más. Otro letrado que aparece también vinculado a la defensa del padre es el abogado Miguel Saucedo.

Otra madre que ha hecho uso de la denuncia falsa. en este caso también la denuncia de abuso sexual contra los hijos, que es la consigue de forma inmediata interrumpir el contacto de los hijos con el padre por un espacio largo prologando en el tiempo. El juez había dictaminado que existía alienación parental de la madre hacía los 3 hijos.

Murieron en la Avenida San Bernabé. Eran tres niños de seis, ocho y diez años de vida. La madre y el abuelo materno también murieron. En el lugar de los hechos, en la cama, había una Biblia con un cristo de madera y una pistola del calibre 25, con una carta póstuma,  así como un mensaje dentro de un fólder.

La abuela materna fue la única sobreviviente a los fármacos utilizados para causar la muerte.
  • la psicóloga María Cristina Pérez Agüero, describió a Leopoldo Olvera como una persona honrada y aseguró que mucho tiempo estuvo separado de los menores y acusado “injustamente”.
  • “Mucho tiempo estuvo separado de ellos injustamente acusado de una situación que el no cometió estuvo aprobado en distintas instancias que esto no sucedió y gracias a esa fuerza él estuvo esperando el momento exacto en el que sus hijos serian reintegrados con él”.
  • Los mensajes y el contenido de la carta póstuma que se ha hecho público indican que Mireya y sus padres fueron quienes pactaron su propio suicidio y la muerte de los tres menores, decisión que se tomó una vez que el juez les quitó la guardia y custodia de los menores.

Padre de niños envenenados, una víctima más
Leopoldo Olvera es padre de los tres niños que murieron envenados.
          A BOA FILHA AO BLOG VOLTA....   

Espero que todos estejam bem...
Eu estou ótima Graças a Deus!!!!
Estava com muuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuita saudades de escrever no meu Blog e claro que também estava com saudades de todos vocês... 
Aproveito logo para agradecer os diversos recados deixados nesse período da minha ausência... ADORO receber esse carinho...
Minha vida está repleta de novidades... mas irei postando aos poucos pois senão teria que ficar por aqui mais de uma semana escrevendo sem parar... hahahaha
Hoje vou falar um pouquinho sobre o meu "sumiço" da Blogosfera...
Eu precisava ver se eu conseguia ser eu mesma... afinal estava deixando de ser a paciente para ser novamente a Juliana... que trabalha, que estuda, que vai e que volta sozinha, que já consegue realizar atividades sem se cansar tanto... que tem cabelos e que não mais é olhada pelas ruas... que é esposa... que faz faxina... que cozinha... que dirige... que é filha... que é irmã... que é tia... que é amiga... que é VIVA!!!!
Espero que vocês me entendam... e no fundo não sei se algum de vocês também se sentiu assim...
Depois que passamos pelo diagnóstico de um câncer e pelo tratamento que ao meu ver é a parte mais pesada dessa história... ainda temos que enfrentar o segundo round... o fantasma de caminhar por 5 cinco anos realizando os exames de acompanhamento...
Confesso que cada vez que tenho que comparecer ao ICESP meu coração acelera... sinto borboletas na barriga e lá vem o medo da incerteza dos resultados de cada check-up...
Por outro lado sei que somos mais uma vez privilegiadas... pois quem além de nós realiza exames tão específicos e importantes a cada 3 meses???
Agora estou conseguindo dormir e acordar cada dia mais confiante e segura...
Sempre entrego TUDO nas mãos de Deus e acredito na minha cura... mas como diz um velho ditado: "Gato escaldado tem medo de água fria" né? hahahahaha
Fiquem com Deus!!!!
Beijos no coração...

          igra istine   
Obavezno,jos gdje me ne znaju lol

Pleses li sa nepoznatim?

A jel pleses ti sa nepoznatima jos uvek? ili? lol lol
eh gabriela,gabriela....pa i nick ti je peskirski....jebote biterlemon 8)
Pardon G^osin dezurni buljash 8)
          Las "malasmadres" no quieren la custodia compartida e imponen la custodia para la madre por sus intereses egoístas personales   
Miércoles, 14 de Junio, 2017
El artículo fuente fue publicado hace más de 2 años.

La verdadera "malamadre" es aquella que prima más sus intereses egoístas personales que los de sus propios hijos. Como excusa para pretender impedir la custodia compartida puede poner cualquiera, pero detrás de ello se esconden unos intereses personales configurados en favor del egoísmo de esa madre. No es aquella que quiere divertirse y aprovechar la vida, pues ello en normal, tan normal como que por encima de sus intereses personales se encuentren los deberes y obligaciones con sus hijos.

Han acusado siempre al padre de no interesarse por sus hijos, de delegar sus responsabilidades y obligaciones en la figura materna, pero ni siquiera en el pasado podemos creer que fuera cierto, y contando con que la educación a los hombres ha sido machista, y ello ha contribuido en gran medida a que los hombres pensasen que los hijos con quien mejor estarían sería con la madre.

Son muchos los hombres criados y convencidos de tal argumentación machista que tras firmar el convenio en donde la madre asume la guarda y custodia de los menores, se han dado cuenta del grave error cometido. Hombres que han visto como sus hijos eran víctimas del abandono de una madre que usaba la vivienda familiar para dar cobijo a sus nuevos novios, y que dejaba a la suerte a los hijos dedicando mayor atención a los nuevos novios y a su vida sentimental que a la crianza de sus propios hijos.

Los resultados de la custodia materna son más que visibles. El fracaso escolar y el número de menores ingresados en centro de menores son la muestra patente de ello. Son madres, pero muy lejos de ser esas personas que creyeron muchos hombres que estaban dispuestas a sacrificar la vida por sus hijos, Es muy bonito de palabra repetir a cada instante que lo primero son tus hijos, llevar fotos en la cartera, bolso o en el móvil de tus hijos, pero luego los hechos nos muestran que ocurre en el interior del hogar.

En la noticia aparece una abogada, María Dolores Cárdenas, como nueva asesora del "Club de las malasmadres". Esta profesional de la abogacía es además de letrada, profesora asociada en la Universidad de Alicante y malamadre.

De la lectura del texto encontramos también algunos tintes muy feministas, pues los lactantes pueden perfectamente disfrutar de la custodia compartida cuando sus progenitores se han separado, como lo hacían previo al estado de la ruptura. Detrás de esa imposición de la que habla (típico en el discurso feminista), se esconde la verdadera imposición que pretende mantener vigente el feminismo, la imposición de la custodia materna y con ello el apartar al padre del cuidado de los hijos  a cambio de una pensión de alimentos y el uso de la vivienda familiar.
  • Para una malamadre la custodia compartida es, en muchas ocasiones, la mejor solución para resolver una situación de ruptura con la pareja. “Quiero que mis hijos no lo pasen mal”. Esta es la frase con la que se inicia el 99% de las consultas que hacen en mi despacho las madres que se van a separar – y también las que hacen los padres. 
  • Decidir que los hijos vivan por períodos equivalentes de tiempo con cada uno de los progenitores es algo difícil de asumir para una malamadre, sobre todo si alguno de los niños es muy pequeño.
  • si existe un hijo lactante, la custodia compartida no se tiene que imponer desde el principio, sino que se alcanzará de manera progresiva, mediante visitas cada vez más amplias, a medida que el niño vaya adquiriendo independencia de la madre.
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Enlaces relacionados con este club de malasmadres:
- ¿Quieres descubrir si eres una «malamadre»?
- Laura Baena, fundadora del club de las malas madres: "No hacemos croquetas, ni disfraces"


          UM ANO EM REMISSÃO...   

Muuuuuuuuuuuuuuuito FELIZ!!!!

Espero que todos estejam bem...
Eu estou ótima Graças a Deus!!!
Já estava com saudades de escrever por aqui...
Hoje venho falar de algo MARAVILHOSO.... faz exatamente 1 ano que eu recebi a notícia que eu mais esperei entre 2009/2011, uma das melhores notícias, se não a melhor... A CURA!
É isso mesmo... completo um ano em remissão... um ano da última quimioterapia... um ano sem mais nenhum sinal da doença... Uhuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!!!
Batalha árdua, que só quem passa ou passou por isso sabe o quanto é... Sabemos que a vida nos traz dificuldades... mas graças a Deus, a vida também nos dá soluções... O câncer é realmente uma dificuldade grande, acho que todos já presenciaram de perto... ou na própria pele... ou com algum parente ou com algum amigo... entende o que eu estou falando...
Esse um ano passou rápido demais e quanta coisa foi vivida nesse tempo e beeem vivida... a sede de viver tornou maior e eu tenho orgulho de ter passado por tudo que passei, tenho orgulho da minha vida, tenho orgulho de mim, da força que eu me mostrei ter, porque antes eu não sabia que eu tinha... Meu Deus, fui muito iluminada, e continuo sendo.
Estou aproveitando cada etapa do meu cabelo crescendo, e cada vez mais boba com a rapidez que isso vem acontecendo... Estou de olho na balança... porque eu ganhei uns bons quilos no decorrer do tratamento... já perdi uns e ainda quero perder mais alguns, porém me sinto bem melhor assim...
Voltei a trabalhar e me sinto maravilhada...
O cansaço aos pouquinhos vem diminuindo e hoje já arrisco até uma caminhada mais longa... hahahaha
Acho que tudo que vivi é uma lição de vida, não só pra mim, mas para as pessoas que sempre acompanharam minha história... tenho certeza, que cada um de vocês que leem o meu blog aprenderam muito comigo.... assim como eu aprendi muito com vocês... 
A vida as vezes nos prega peças, coisas que a gente nunca imaginaria que aconteceriam com a gente, acaba acontecendo, faz parte, tem gente que culpa a Deus, eu nunca culpei, sempre pensei que se ele me deu essa cruz, era porque sabia que eu ia conseguir carregar, sempre pensei, se aconteceu comigo, é porque ele quer que eu aprenda algo com isso. E como eu aprendi. Se eu for botar aqui tudo que aprendi, o texto vai ficar mais enorme do que já está...
Para finalizar deixo uma frase:
"O passado já foi, o futuro há de vir, estou vivendo o presente"... O melhor presente aliás.
Fiquem com Deus!!!
Beijos iluminados e muita força...

Olha o tamanho do meu cabelo... hahahahaha

          En prisión una mujer española que apuñaló en Torrevieja a su marido   
Martes, 13 de Junio, 2017

Una mujer de 46 años ha apuñalado a su marido en la localidad de Torrevieja. Los hechos sucedieron una urbanización de la localidad alicantina,  El Chaparral-La Siesta de Torrevieja (Alicante), en la calle Alange, ubicada en la carretera que parte de la localidad hacía el hipermercado Carrefour, y con dirección a Crevillente. en la misma urbanización se encuentra un parque natural protegido, y frente a la misma se encuentran otras urbanizaciones que como vista tienen las salinas de Torrevieja, e incluso desde las mismas se puede a zonas de baño de estas salinas.

El cuchillo utilizado era de grandes dimensiones, y la mujer fue detenida e ingresada en prisión. Ambos son españoles, víctima y maltratadora, pues en este caso en una agresora y maltratadora, una mujer. Los vecinos son quienes han facilitado la información de que ambos son de Madrid, pues el hombre fue trasladado a la Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos (UCI) del hospital de Torrevieja con una herida en el abdomen provocada por una puñalada, y la mujer a prisión
localizaron al hombre en estado de embriaguez a la puerta y a la mujer, gritando, con heridas superficiales pero junto a un charco de sangre en el interior de la vivienda, que estaba abierta, y donde también detectaron signos de violencia, en muebles y enseres.

artículo completo
Un hombre herido tras ser acuchillado por su mujer en Torrevieja
Espero que todos estejam bem...
Eu estou ótima Graças a Deus!!!
Hoje tive retorno com o meu oncologista Dr. Elias Abdo Filho no ICESP - Instituto do Câncer do Estado de São Paulo e assim como muitos de vocês... confesso que as borboletas estavam todas voando na minha barriga... até entrar no consultório e ouvir: PARABÉNS!!! OS SEUS EXAMES ESTÃO TODOS ÓTIMOS!!!
Ai que alívio delicioso....
Obrigada "Papai do Céu"  por tudo de maravilhoso que vem acontecendo na minha vida!!!
Agora mais uma pausa... só volto ao oncologista daqui a 3 meses... Ebaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!
Fiquem com Deus!!!
Beijos iluminados

          Una mujer crea una petición para pedir cárcel para las mujeres que utilicen la denuncia falsa de violencia de género   
Martes, 13 de Junio, 2017

Una mujer, Laura Vegas Romay, crea una petición donde pide que se castigue con pena de cárcel a las mujeres que utilizan la denuncia falsa de violencia de género.


Me parece absolutamente vergonzoso que haya mujeres aprovechándose del sufrimiento que tienen que soportar las mujeres victimas de violencia de género . Está petición es para castigar a quien abusa y mienta a este respecto , que tenga pena de carcel y se considere delito interponer denuncias falsas para conseguir castigar , humillar y otros beneficios que nada tienen que ver con la violencia de género . Creo que si estuviera castigado no lo harían , y que las fuerzas de seguridad solo se ocupen de los casos reales y sus victimas . Hay muchos hombres sufriendo este abuso y es muy injusto que se acuse a inocentes. Gracias a todos y espero se pueda concienciar y solucionar este problema .

Carcel para denuncias falsas de violencia de género
          MEU ANIVERSÁRIO   

Espero que todos estejam bem...
Eu estou ótima Graças a Deus!!!
Venho compartilhar com vocês mais um ano de vida... Afinal, HOJE É O MEU ANIVERSÁRIO!!!!!
Uhuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!!!! Não quero pedir nada... além de muuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuita saúde...
No mais só tenho a agradecer a Deus por TUDO o que tenho recebido... pela minha família maravilhosa... pelo meu marido... pelos meus amigos... pelo meu emprego.... pela minha casa... pela minha recuperação... pela minha VIDA!!!!!
Obrigada!!! Obrigada!!! Obrigada!!!
Beijos no coração...

          La semana del 19 de Junio se debate una PNL de custodia compartida en el Congreso de los Diputados   
Martes, 13 de Junio, 2017

Rectificamos la noticia anteriormente publicada por nosotros mismos. La fuente de la información nos trasmitió mal la información, y gracias a personas que colaboran pudimos preguntar y constatar el que los lunes no hay pleno en el Congreso de los Diputados.

El debate tendrá lugar un día -aún no concretado- de la semana que viene, cuyo comienzo es el día 19 de Junio. Disculpas por el error.

Se ha anunciado para la próxima semana del 19 de Junio, en el Congreso de los Diputados. La proposición no de ley a favor de la custodia compartida será presentada por CIUDADANOS, y creemos que contará con el apoyo del Partido Popular.

El proyecto es fruto de las negociaciones de varias asociaciones que trabajan a favor de la custodia compartida desde hace ya décadas:  UEFACC, Confederación con papá y mama, Abuelos Separados de sus nietos, Custodia Paterna y SOS Papá.

Tras las reuniones y negociaciones con este grupo parlamentario desde el mes de Diciembre del pasado año, ahora se consigue que inste al Gobierno para que en un plazo máximo de 3 meses presente un proyecto de ley de custodia compartida como régimen normalizado para los hijos tras la ruptura de pareja de sus progenitores, que rompa con la actual excepción que contempla aún el artículo 92 del Código Civil desde la reforma del año 2005 del PSOE.

El 19 de Junio el Congreso de los Diputados debate una PNL de Custodia Compartida
          A MAIS PURA REALIDADE...   

Espero que todos estejam bem...
Eu estou ótima Graças a Deus!!!
Vi essa frase e quis dividir com vocês pois ela é a mais pura realidade...
Espero que gostem...
Fiquem com Deus!!!
Beijos iluminados

          MUITO BOM!!!!   
Espero que todos estejam bem...
Eu estou ótima Graças a Deus!!!
Estou passando para contar que foi muuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuito bom voltar ao trabalho... as crianças ainda não voltaram... iniciam somente na semana que vem... mas já deu para sentir o gostinho de estar novamente dentro de uma sala de aula.
Até uma salva de palmas eu recebi das minhas colegas de trabalho em homenagem ao meu retorno... confesso que fiquei bastante feliz...
Ah! Amanhã tenho exame de sangue lá no ICESP- Instituto do Câncer do Estado de São Paulo e meu retorno com o oncologista será dia 16/02...
Peço que rezem por mim para que tudo esteja maravilhoso...
Fiquem com Deus!!!
Beijos iluminados

          FIM DAS FÉRIAS!!!   

Espero que todos estejam bem...
Eu estou ótima Graças a Deus!!!!
Genteeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.... estou passando para contar que hoje é o meu último dia de férias e que amanhã volto a trabalhar...
Ai... ai...ai... confesso que estou com um friozinho na barriga... afinal foram dois anos de afastamento... mas sei que tudo dará certo e que aos pouquinhos eu vou "pegando no tranco" hahahahaha
Além disso tem meu filhotinho Frederico que vai ficar pelo período da manhã em casa sozinho... estou morrendo de dó... mas também sei que ele ficará bem e logo estará acostumado e assim que eu chegar ele ficará bem feliz em me ver...
Torçam por mim...
Amanhã passo para contar como foi o meu primeiro dia...
Fiquem com Deus!!!
Beijinhos carinhosos

          FELIZ ANO NOVO!!!!!   

Espero que todos estejam bem...
Eu estou ótima Graças a Deus!!!
Estou passando para desejar um FELIZ ANO NOVO para todos... repleto de muuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuita saúde, paz, amor, realizações e felicidades!!!!
Aproveito também para deixar uma receita de ano novo... hahahaha


Dê amor e carinho e receberá igual ou mais...
Tenha a paz no seu coração e voará tão alto que jamais será alcançado (a) pelo mal...
Brinde sem exageros e terá o equilíbrio, a vida...
Creia que é capaz e alcançará seus objetivos.
Acredite... Uma boa ideia se transformará numa realização...
Preserve a própria vida e respeite a vida alheia. Economize, mas com sabedoria. Não deixe de viver a vida por economia a pouco dinheiro e nem se venda por ele.
Ame com intensidade.
Não tenha medo de alcançar as estrelas.
E o mais importante dos ingredientes...
Encontre-se com Deus todos os dias...
Assim tudo se tornará muito mais simples e o seu ano será Iluminado!

E como dizia um grande mestre da literatura brasileira...

"Para sonhar um ano novo que mereça este nome, você, meu caro, tem de merecê-lo, tem de fazê-lo novo, eu sei que não é fácil, mas tente, experimente, consciente. É dentro de você que o Ano Novo cochila e espera desde sempre." (Carlos Drummond de Andrade).

Fiquem com Deus e aproveitem muuuuuuuuuuuuito esse último dia do ano de 2011...
Ah! Sem esquecer de agradecer por tudo o que recebemos nesse ano... até mesmo aquilo que julgamos ser ruíns para a nossa vida... pois temos que lembrar que TUDO tem os dois lados e o nosso dever é olhar sempre pelo lado positivo...
Beijos iluminados

          MAIS UMA ESTRELA NO CÉU....   
Essa era a minha amiga Alessandra e o seu filhinho Leonardo...

Espero que todos estejam bem...
Eu estou ótima Graças a Deus!!!!
Andei sumida e sei que vão me compreender...
Mais uma vez fui surpreendida pela perda de uma pessoa querida...
Faleceu a minha amiga Alessandra, aos 38 anos de idade lutando até o último segundo contra um câncer de mama com metástases ósseas...
Conheci a Ale na faculdade em 2006...
No meio do ano seguinte ela avisou que iria fazer um cirurgia para retirar um nódulo na mama... foi retirado um quadrante e após um pouco mais de um mês ela retornou as aulas... já sabia do resultado e como já tinha começado a fazer as quimioterapias... estava careca...
O seu retorno foi uma surpresa para todos da turma... e a Ale cheia de coragem... parou a aula para contar o que estava acontecendo e para deixar um alerta para que nós mulheres nos tocassemos... pois foi no meio de um banho que ela havia sentido o nódulo em sua mama...
A turma toda ficou emocionada... lembro que chorei muito ouvindo o seu depoimento... e quem poderia imaginar que 2 anos depois eu viria a passar pela mesma situação....
Quando soube do meu diagnóstico... a Ale foi uma das primeiras pessoas com quem eu quis conversar... principalmente por ela ter sido um exemplo de força...
Nesses meus dois anos de luta sempre tive essa minha grande amiga por perto... quando não nos víamos... falavamos por telefone...
Ela deixou um filhinho... e esse era o seu maior medo...
Sempre pedia para Deus deixá-la ver o seu filho crescer... e infelizmente isso não será possível...
O câncer dela foi muito agressivo... os medicamentos não conseguiam combater e as metástases foram aumentando... até chegar na medula... as dores foram ficando mais intensas e ela teve que ser internada... estava no A.C. Camargo e foi lá que ela faleceu... após 4 anos de incansável luta...
Peço que rezem pela alma dela e por seus familiares...
Alê descanse em paz minha amiga!!!!
Fiquem com Deus!!!
Beijos no coração


Espero que todos estejam bem...
Eu estou ótima Graças a Deus!!!
Venho hoje contar que ontem foi o meu último dia de licença médica... Ebaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!
Como sou professora... concursada pela Prefeitura de São Paulo... que não compra as férias... tendo 2 períodos vencidos devido ao tempo em que estive afastada por conta do tratamento...
Chega a ser engraçado... essas serão as férias mais longa da minha vida... afinal tenho 60 dias vencidos e mais 30 dias referentes ao ano de 2011... Sendo assim... no total terei 90 dias de férias....
Hummmm!!! Espero aproveitar o máximo cada minutinho...
Até já estou mais leve... como é gostoso dizer estou de férias e não mais estou de licença médica...
Fiquem com Deus!!!
Beijokinhas repletas de felicidade...

          HÁ 2 ANOS ATRÁS...   
Espero que todos estejam bem...
Eu estou ótima Graças a Deus!!!
Há exatamente dois anos atrás... eu recebia do meu médico o resultado da biópsia cirúrgica com o seguinte diagnóstico: CÂNCER!!!
Naquele momento foi inevitável... relacionei a palavra câncer com sentença de morte...
Custei a acreditar que era possível vencer esse “bichinho”, porém logo me coloquei pronta para lutar...

Sabia que seria difícil... mas sentia que era possível...
E claaaaaro que não foi fácil...

Eu achava que ia desidratar de tanto chorar...
Dormir, então, só à base de remédios...
Mas como diz o ditado popular (todos são de uma verdade absoluta) “a vida segue”, “depois de hoje vai ter o amanhã” (ainda que não estejamos aqui para ver)...
Cada caso é um caso, cada pessoa é uma pessoa, mas a receita para melhorar essa situação... acredito que é a mesma...
Tentar fazer coisas que gosta, se ocupar, aproveitar para repensar a vida... reinventar uma nova forma de viver, repensar os valores...
O que é que realmente nos faz feliz?
Será que sabemos?
Provavelmente não!
Porém pensamos que sim...
Confesso, que esta foi uma “boa” hora para descobrir!!!
O pior que pode acontecer não é o diagnóstico de câncer....
É você se sentir vítima dele!
Apesar que a doença te sequestra por um momento e pede às vezes de resgate a sua própria vida...
Nem todo mundo quer ouvir a verdade...

Mas ninguém morre de vésperas e hoje acredito que o câncer me "deu um presente": UM PAR DE ÓCULOS para que eu enxergasse a vida diferente!!!
E assim eu também acredito que essa doença faz com todos que passam por ela...
Claro, que você pode jogá-los fora...
O livre-arbítrio não é lenda não!
Cuidado também para que as lágrimas não te impeçam de enxergar os óculos que Deus está te dando...
Não fique se cobrando para ser “forte”...
Chore tudo o que tiver direito... berre... se revolte...
Seja paparicada... mande trazerem mais chocolates...
Mas... depois chega né?
Vá se reinventar!!! E olha que não é a todo mundo que este privilégio/benção é dado...
Sei bem o quanto é difícil enxergar as bençãos da vida quando elas chegam disfarçadas de dificuldades...
Pensem nisso... o diagnóstico de câncer é um convite para a vida!!!!
Fiquem com Deus!!!
Beijos iluminados...

          VIDA É SUPERAÇÃO...   

Espero que todos estejam bem...
Eu estou ótima Graças a Deus!!!
Hoje fiquei pensando em como o tempo está passando...
Caraca! Já estamos em novembro... praticamente no final do ano de 2011...
Hoje também li algo que quero dividir com vocês...
Espero que gostem...


A nossa alegria supera nossa tristeza,
O nosso consolo supera nossa dor,
A nossa fé supera nossa dúvida,
A nossa esperança supera nosso desespero,
O nosso entusiasmo supera nosso desânimo,
O nosso sucesso supera nosso fracasso,
A nossa coragem supera nosso medo,
A nossa força supera nossa fraqueza,
A nossa perseverança supera nossa inconstância,
A nossa paz supera nossa guerra,
A nossa luz supera nossa escuridão,
A nossa voz supera nosso silêncio,
A nossa paciência supera nossa impaciência,
O nosso descanso supera nosso cansaço,
O nosso conhecimento supera nossa ignorância,
A nossa sabedoria supera nossa tolice,
A nossa vitória supera nossa derrota,
A nossa ação supera nosso tédio,
O nosso ganho supera nossa perda,
A nossa resistência supera nossa fragilidade,
O nosso sorriso supera nosso choro,
A nossa gratidão supera nossa ingradidão,
A nossa riqueza supera nossa pobreza,
O nosso sonho supera nossa realidade...
Nosso amor a Deus, ao próximo, à vida, nos faz superar tudo!
By Edilson Ramos.

Tenham todos um ótimo mês...
Fiquem com Deus!!!
Beijokinhas carinhosas

          General Manager - Sugar Ridge Retreat Centre - Wyebridge, ON   
This role leads a department and is therefore required to support both day to day operations and strategy/planning for the future.... $37,000 - $40,000 a year
From Indeed - Wed, 07 Jun 2017 17:05:46 GMT - View all Wyebridge, ON jobs
          GSIS (Hong Kong) | Virtual World   
This video illustrates how Hong Kong schools can use a virtual world to continue teaching in the case of swine flu related school closings.

Hong Kong's virtual school - swine flu free

Note: Schools seems to be GSIS .. German Swiss International Schools in Hong Kong ... and the VW seems to be Second Life

          Child Rights that enables Child Development (Sandy Rockz)   
Children discover their approaches to grab the attention of the people around them. Hence, they wouldn't bother taking mischievous activities that could disturb their gathering of people.
          ICT for the Non-Specialist - Virtual Worlds   
ICT for the Non-Specialist - Virtual Worlds
The potential of using virtual worlds in education is explored by both teachers and pupils in this programme.

After joining the Schome project, which investigates how education can work with virtual environments, assistant head Mike Adams is able to investigate the educational benefits of virtual world Second Life.

Pupils at John Hanson School Community School, Andover, also show how they use software to build within virtual worlds.

Steve Thompson from the University of Teeside then works with pupils at Freebrough SE College, Cleveland, as part of a Second Life project to virtually redesign and rebuild Cleveland's Skinningrove Jetty.

          Points to remember when choosing a school for your little one (Deepash Bhandari)   
The creative and imaginative interests are harboured and focussing power too gets improved. So make sure that enough attention is given to theatre, music, dance, robotics, debates and science leagues as well. There are many day boarding schools in Delhi that promise brilliant exposure in the same so that your child exhibits the best behaviour.
          JLI as Superfriends Mock Covers (Updated)   
This would be how I would revive the JLI team. The main four- Blue Beetle, Booster Gold, Fire and Ice, with Vixen and Robotman added. Along with Guy Gardner making his return to the team.

The sitcom-like zaniness of JLI mixed with the offbeat, weirdness of the Silver Age Doom Patrol.
Two cult classics that taste great together.

Note: I updated covers #8 up with a new cover dress. And I added a covers for #11 and 12.

#2 is an homage to the classic B-movie, The Atomic Brain.
#3 is an homage to Justice League of America #195.
#12 is an homage to Avengers #57.
          igra istine   
ja se ne razumem

a subota nedelja,odmarate?

jok ali ni ne radimO

          igra istine   
ja se ne razumem

a subota nedelja,odmarate?
          Star City: One Night Only Concert   

A special charity event featuring a unbelievable gathering of super-stars!
Maggie & Hopey, The Teen Titans, Dazzler & Pixie, Black Canary, Wonder Woman, Zatanna, The Archies, Josie & the Pussycats and Lila Cheney!

New Mechanics - Florence & the Machine - Only if for a Night
New Mechanics - Juliette Lewis - Hardly Wait
New Mechanics - Cat Power - Cherokee
Teen Titans Go-Go - Ed Sheeran - Sing
Teen Titans Go-Go - MGMT - Electric Feel
Teen Titans Go-Go - The XX - VCR
Pixeldust ft. Dazzler - Blondie - One Way or Another
Pixeldust ft. Dazzler - Poe - Angry Johnny
Pixeldust ft. Dazzler - The Bird and the Bee - One on One
The Dee-Cee Chicks - Joan Jett and the Blackhearts - I Love Rock N Roll
The Dee-Cee Chicks - Hole - Gold Dust Woman
The Dee-Cee Chicks - Ting Tings - That's Not My Name
Canary Cry - Eurythmics - I Need a Man
Canary Cry - Lykke Li - Get Some
Canary Cry w/The Dee-Cee Chicks - Rogue Traders - Watching You
The Archies - Gotye - Somebody I Used to Know
The Archies - Modest Mouse - Float On
The Archies - Feist - Islands in the Stream
Josie & the Pussycats - Stevie Nicks - Stand Back
Josie & the Pussycats - Yeah Yeah Yeahs - Maps
Josie & the Pussycats - Nena - 99 Red Balloons
Lila Cheney - PJ Harvey - Rid of Me
Lila Cheney - Lana Del Rey - Off to the Races
Lila Cheney - Jane Siberry - It Can't Rain All the Time
All-Band Jam - Tina Turner - Better Be Good to Me

          How Democratic Schools Operate, the Benefits and Why You Should Choose it for Your Child (Jessica Hanson)   
Democratic School provides an environment in which young people are free to learn both independently and collaboratively according to their own interests and abilities. Community rules, decision-making and conflict resolution will be conducted by a democratic process at weekly school meetings and special council meetings.
          MSH Cards - X-Men, Phase 1, plus Danger Room   
Here are cards for the first and second generation X-Men.

Their tokens:

The Danger Room from the Nintendo X-Men game...
It's 14 squares wide by 24 squares long. I would suggest dividing the length into two 14 x 12 segments for purposes of random trap placements.

The two corridors (2x3 each) are not counted. you could also add traps there by using a 1D6 on each.

The best resources for the Danger Room for me has always been the piece in Children of the Atom and the Dragon Magazine feature.
Also, if you have Mutants & Masterminds, there's some nice Danger Room material in it, too.

          Random Superhero Adventure Generation   
These are from a couple old DC Heroes books.
First we have a random generator for adventures from the 1st Edition Gamemaster book.
Worth noting is that it needs some modifying to be perfected.

First, the villain list. Obviously, you'll want to put villains in that are appropriate for your campaign. Whether Marvel, DC or others. And then of course, ones that are the right power level. However, you also may want to ditch that chart altogether and make your own.
Because it's 2D10. Which means the ones in the middle will be more recurring and #s 2 and 20 will hardly ever appear. It's best to use 1D20, a percentile (1D100) chart or a chart with multiple 1D6 or 1D10 sub-charts.

Second, you may want to change the locations.
I recommend using Adamant Entertainment's Modern Dispatch #42: Pulp Adventure Generator for businesses and/or crimes.
Also, Adamant put out several other random generators in the Modern Dispatch, including one for Superheroes. Constructive GMs can utilize it with this to make some exciting adventures.

Something else I prefer to do is on the villain power list, roll 1D10: on a roll of 1-9 randomly select from any powers, on a roll of 10 randomly select two powers. These would be the main powers. Then do it again for secondary powers. This opens up more powers to use.

If your using DC Heroes, just put higher APs in the first set of powers. If you're using Marvel Super-Heroes, you may want to use two separate charts to randomly determine power levels. For instance, for primary powers, use one that ranges up to Amazing or Monstrous. And for Secondary powers, you could use one that stops at Excellent or Remarkable.

Plus, this is a random chart for urban crimes that appeared in Night in Gotham. The book, itself, is quite useful as it has a treasure trove of adventure seeds. The chart is set up with each district of Gotham having its own percentages for certain crimes. This could easily be translated into any large city like New York, Los Angeles or Chicago. Or a fictional city from the comics or one you create, yourself.

And here's a random crime chart that appeared in an issue of Dragon Magazine. It can be inserted in to replace the DC Heroes crime list.

          Second Life in 3600 seconds   

          Marvel Cosmic   
My fave adventure books from the classic Marvel Super-Heroes RPG was the cosmic series - Cosmos Cubed, Ragnarok and Roll and Left Hand of Eternity.
Probably one of the biggest reasons I developed a fondness for Marvel's cosmic characters.

There are stats in the books but there were no cards, which would've been pretty cool.
So here are some I put together for the game.
The books, and the core rules, can be downloaded from ClassicMarvelForever.

          Avengers ID Cards - the Backs   
For use with the Marvel Super-Heroes RPG. Stats are taken from the original Handbooks. Just slap them on the back of the cards from the previous post.

          Avengers ID Cards   
I made these for use with the Marvel Super-Heroes RPG. Stats would be on the back for easy reference.

          Bothering Stepsister Whole Day Long With Questions About Sex Finally Resulted Exactly As Rude Boy Hoped For   
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          Sci-Fi Gaming Resources -Updated   

Note: Sadly, the best resource, Solo Nexus, has been removed from solo players.

The Yahoo Groups appear to still be out there somewhere. I'm still getting e-mails from them. However, it looks like Yahoo's changed their links and I haven't gotten them updated, yet. Here's the updated list of links, with several new ones-

Traveller at Mongoose Publishing
Mongoose Traveller resources at RPGNow
Spica Publishing Resources for Traveller at RPGNow
All Traveller resources at RPGNow
Mongoose's Signs & Portents Magazine at RPGNow
Freelance Traveller
Into the Deep
The Journal of the Travellers' Aid Society
Far Future Enterprises -has a nice guide to Understanding Traveller
Spica Publishing
SFRPG Message Board
Random Traveller System Generator
Traveller: Heaven & Earth -great world building software
Travelling Alone -nice optional solo Traveller flowchart
How to make a Traveller Sandbox

Shadowrun resources at RPGNow
Elektra for Shadowrun
Sci-Fi resources at RPGNow
Alternity resources
Star Smuggler resources
Star Frontiersman
Marvel-Phile & Other Marvel Dragon Magazine Articles
Seventh Sanctum -lots of random generators
Paper Friends -printable character standups for every genre

D6 Space
D6 Adventure
D6 Fantasy
Polgarus Games D6 Resources
Star Wars D6 Holcron
Random Star Wars D6 System Generator
Star Wars D6 Community on G+
Into the Shadows

Mythic/Solo Play
Shaun's Solo Traveller

MGT-Aids · Fan Aids for Mongoose Pub's Traveller
Guide to Traveller UPP (Universal Planetary Profile)
DC Heroes - Blood of Heroes - M.E.G.S. Yahoo group
Doctor Who Solitaire Story Game
Mythic Fan Club/Resources
Solo Nexus

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          Comment on Fortress Maximus on clearance by Bigbot   
No worries, yo. With this news I wouldn't be surprised if they hadn't all been picked up already, whether by fans or those looking for profit.
          Comment on Fortress Maximus on clearance by Bigbot   
Thank you, yo!
          Comment on Fortress Maximus on clearance by Bigbot   
Holy cow that is an awesome price! Unfortunately I'm way too far away to take advantage of these prices. Anyone nearby that could help me out? I'd gladly pay whatever the shipping cost would be to get it to me.

หุ้น EARTH เป็นหุ้นในกระแสที่อยู่ดีๆ หุ้นก็ตก เจ้าของโดน force sell ซักพักก็ผิดนัดชำระหนี้เอาซะอย่างนั้น มาดูกันครับว่าในงบการเงินมีสัญญาณอะไรที่น่าสนใจบ้าง

1.งบการเงินหุ้น EARTH

การทำธุรกิจของ EARTH หลักๆเป็นการซื้อมาขายไปถ่านหิน ลักษณะธุรกิจแบบนี้ประเด็นแรกที่อยากรู้คือ ของขายได้ไหม ขายแล้วเก็บเงินได้ไหม มีจ่ายเจ้าหนี้การค้าหรือไม่ โครงสร้างดีค่อยมาดูภายในต่อไป

สรุปงบการเงินหุ้น earth


ในฝั่งหนี้สิน หนี้สินส่วนใหญ่เป็นหนี้สินไม่หมุนเวียน หนี้ยาวไม่มาก และทุนเล็กน้อยดูด้วยสายตาเสียวดี

ในฝั่งสินทรัพย์มีสินทรัพย์หมุนเวียนและไม่หมุนเวียนคนละครึ่ง รายการสินทรัพย์ที่น่าสนใจคือ เงินจ่ายล่วงหน้าต่างๆ เยอะมากทั้งซื้อเหมืองและซื้อสินค้า เงินออกไปแล้วของยังไม่ได้เลย

 เงินจ่ายล่วงหน้าค้าสินค้า ของยังไม่ได้อยากได้มากต้องจ่ายล่วงหน้าไปก่อน แสดงว่าอำนาจต่อรองกับ supplierไม่เยอะ ในหมายหมายเหต 7 บอกว่าจ่ายล่วงหน้าประมาณ 100 วัน โหดดีต้องจ่ายก่อนถึงได้ของ

สีแดงๆอันที่สองคือ สิทธิในเหมือง ถ้า earth ล้มจริงๆเจ้าหนี้ก็สามารถไปขุดถ่านหินมาขายก่อนได้ครับ

สิทธิในเหมืองของ earth
นอกจากเงินจ่ายล่วงหน้าค่าสินค้าแล้ว ที่ยอดเยี่ยมคือเงินจองสิทธิในการซื้อสินค้า พี่เขาจองล่วงหน้าไปเลย 15 ปี มันใจมีของขายแน่ๆ แต่เงินก็ออกไปแล้วนะครัส


หุ้นที่เป็น commodity ให้ดูเน้นๆที่อัตรากำไรขั้นต้น จะเห็นว่าแม้ยอดขายของ earth จะดี และปีที่ผ่านมารอบถ่านหินเป็นขาขึ้น แต่อัตรากำไรขั้นต้้นก็ไม่ได้เพิ่มขึ้นเลย แสดงว่า earth ไม่ได้รับประโยชน์อะไรจากรอบถ่านหินที่เพิ่มเลย




DE สูงเงินสองเท่า มีมีหนี้สั้นในอัตราส่วนที่สูงถึง 64% ของหนี้รวม และกระแสเงินสดจากการดำเนินงานติดลบตลอดทำให้ไม่สามารถคำนวณ Payback period หรือระยะเวลาเก็บหนี้ได้แสดงว่า earth กำลังมีปัญหาหนี้สินนั่นเอง

เมือลองทำนายโอกาสลมละลายด้วย Altman Z score ผลออกมาคะแนนต่กว่า 1.8 บอกว่าน่าล้มละลาย จะเห็นว่ากำไรสะสมต่อสินทรัพย์รวมประมาณ 0.12 แสดงว่าส่วนใหญ่สินทรัพย์ที่มีมาจากการกู้ยืมนันเอง และมูลค่าตลาดต่อสินทรัพย์รวมอยู่ที่ 0.22 แสดงว่าถ้าเพิ่มทุนมาราคาตลาดก็ยังไม่พอจ่ายหนี้เลยทีเดียว


วงจรเงินสดค่อนข้างยาวมากๆๆ ถ้านำเงินจ่ายล่วงหน้าประมาณ 100 วันไปรวมด้วยวงจรเงินสด จะเพิ่มเป็น 200 วันเลยทีเดียว ถือว่าน่ากลัวมาก

บริษัทแบบนี้มักจะมีกระแสเงินสดจากการดำเนินงานติดลบ จะเห็นจาก CFROI ที่มีค่าเป็นลบทุกปี แสดงว่าสินทรัพย์ของ earth ไม่สามารถสร้างเงินสดได้เลย

แถมมีการลงทุนหนักหน่วงมากในรอบหลายปีที่ผ่านมี reinvestment ratio ขึ้นไปถึง 61 เท่าของค่าเสื่อมเลย แสดงว่าเงินออกไปเยอะมาก


การทำกำไรเหนื่อยหน่อย ยอดขายโต แต่กำไรลดลงทุกปี

อัตรากำไรขั้นต้นก็ลดลงขนาดมีเหมืองของตัวเองนะนั่น อัตรากำไรสุทธิก็ต่ำลง

จากการทำกำไรที่ต่ำ สินทรัพย์ไม่สร้างเงินสด จะเห็น ROA ลดลงเรื่อยๆ

โดยสรุปก็คืองบไม่โอมาตังแต่เข้าบริษัทแล้ว กระแสเงินสดดำเนินงานติดลบตลอด และไปลงทุนอะไรแปลกๆเช่นการจ่ายล่วงหน้าค่าของ มีการจ่ายไปเยอะแต่ก็ไม่ได้ส่วนลดการค้าอะไร อัตรากำไรขั้นต้นต่ำลงๆ สู้ต่อไปครับ EARTH

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          excel สรุปงบไตรมาส 1 2560 อุตสาหกรรมไหนรุ่งร่วง   

งบไตรมาส 1 ออกครบแล้ว ได้เวลาทำการบ้านหาหุ้นเด็ดลงทุนกันแล้วครับ มาดูว่าในไตรมาส 1 ที่ผ่านมามีหุ้นตัวไหนรุ่งและร่วงบ้าง

การ Download กดที่ลิงค์รูปลูกศรชื้้ลงที่อยู่มุมขวาล่างของตารางนะครับ เชิญหาหุ้นให้เพลินเพลินได้เลยครับ

หุ้นแต่ละตัวผมได้ลองนำข้อมูลมาสรุปตามลักษณะธุรกิจ จาก morning star thailand จะเห็นว่าในช่วงไตรมาส 1 ที่ผ่านมาอุตสาหกรรมเกี่ยวกับน้ำมันและปิโตรเคมี รุ่งเรีองมาก อุตสาหกรรมเกษตรก็ดี ขายอุปกรณ์อิเล็กทรนิก็ดี  อยากรู้ว่าในกลุ่มอุตสาหกรรมที่รุ่งมีหุ้นตัวไหนบ้างไปดูในไฟล์ excel ได้เลยครับ

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          TPIPL จะ Turnaround ?   

TPIPL เป็นหุ้นในตำนานผ่านร้อนผ่านหนาวมาหลายปี มีช่วงหนึ่งกำลังจะ growth โปรเจกเพียบแต่ต้องมาตกหลุมนิดหน่อย เขาจะกลับมา Turnaround ได้หรือไม่ แผนการเป็นอย่างไร มาดูกันคร้าบบบบ

สภาพปัญหา TPIPL

มาดูด้านหนี้สินกันก่อน ดูหนี้ก็ไม่แย่นะครับ ใกล้ๆกับทุน ไม่น่าห่วนเท่าไรนัก ที่หนี้สินดูน้อยส่วนหนึ่งเพราะมีการตีราคาสินทรัพย์เพิ่มครับเลยทำให้สินทรัพย์โตและส่วนทุนเพิ่มขึ้นตาม

ความอยู่รอดหุ้น TPPL
มาดูที่ความสามารถในการใช้สินทรัพย์ในการสร้างรายได้ของ TPIPL กันบ้างจะเห็นว่า TPIPL มีการขยายการลงทุนอย่างต่อเนื่อง สินทรัพย์โตทุกปี มีปัญหานิดเดียวคือรายได้ไม่โตตาม เหมือนว่าสินทรัพย์ที่ลงทุนไปยังไม่สร้างรายได้กลับมาเท่าไรนัก โครงการอนาคตมีเยอะทั้งทำโรงไฟฟ้าขยะขนาดใหญ่มาก โรงงานปูนใหม่ โรงงานวัสดุก่อสร้างต่าง ปุ๋ยชีวภาพก็มี

การสร้างเงินสดหุ้น TPIPL

มาดูที่วงจรเงินสดกันบ้างจะเห็นว่า TPIPL มีวงจรเงินสดค่อนข้างยาวที่ 169 วัน ความหมายคือบริษัทต้องกันเงินไว้รวมๆกันถึง 169 วันเลยทีเดียว ส่วนใหญ่วงจรเงินสดที่เพิ่มขึ้นมาจากสินค้าคงเหลือที่เพิ่มขึ้น กว่าของจะระบายหมดใช้เวลาถึง 170 วัน และมีแนวโน้มสูงขึ้นติดกันสามปีแล้ว

วงจรเงินสด TPIPL

ในส่วนของการทำกำไรจะเห็นว่ารายได้ไม่โตเท่าไรนัก ส่วนหนึ่งมาจากความต้องการใช้ปูนหดตัวจากสภาวะเศรษฐกิจที่ชะลอตัว แต่กำไรหดตัวอย่างรุนแรง เป็นผลมาจากในปี 2558 ได้มีการเปลี่ยนวิธีบันทึกบัญชีใหม่ โดยสินทรัพย์ที่เคยตีราคาเป็นราคาตลาดแล้วทำให้สินทรัพย์เพิ่ม ทุนเพิ่ม จากเดิมที่เคยนำค่าเสื่อมราคาของสินทรพัย์ที่ตีเพิ่มไปตัดเนียนๆในส่วนทุนโดยตรง ผู้สอบบอกว่ารายจ่ายส่วนนี้ต้องนำมาอยู่ในงบกำไรขาดทุนแทน ค่าใช้จ่ายส่วนนี้ก็ไม่มากไม่น้อย 1,295 ล้านเท่านั้นเอ้งงงง

การทำกำไร TPIPL
โดยรวมงบการเงินก็ไม่เด่นอะไรมากมายนักส่วนหนึ่งมาจากการลงทุนที่เยอะ และผลจากค่าเสื่อมราคาที่เพิ่มขึ้น


ทุกปัญหาต้องมีทางออก หลังจากที่ TPIPP ลงทุนโรงไฟฟ้าขนาดใหญ่กว่า 440MW ที่น่าจะเปิดจ่ายไฟและผลิตได้เต็มกำลังการผลิตในปี 2561 การนำลูกเข้ามา IPO ในตลาดหลักทรัพย์จะมีส่งผลให้ส่วนทุนของ TPIPP โตขึ้น และ่ส่วนทุนของ TPIPL จะโตจากส่วนได้เสียที่ไม่มีอำนาจควบคุม หนี้สินจะลดลงเพราะเอาเงิน IPO มาโป๊ะหนี้ แต่กำไรยังไม่เพิ่มเนื่องจากต้องรอโครงการโรงไฟฟ้าของ TPIPP เปิดใช้งานซะก่อน

การนำบริษัทย่อย TPIPP เข้าตลาด

หลังจากดันลูกเข้าตลาดมีเงินมาปลดหนี้ปลดสิน ก็ถึงคิวของค่าเสื่อมราคาเจ้าปัญหา 1,295 ล้าน ในวันที่ 30 มีนาคมบริษัทได้ลงประกาศข่าวในตลาดหลักทรัพย์[2]ว่า "การเปลี่ยนนโยบายการบัญชีสำหรับการวัดมูลค่าที่ดิน อาคาร และอุปกรณ์ จากวิธีการตีราคาใหม่เป็นวิธีราคาทุน" ผลกระทบก็คือ สินทรัพย์ส่วนที่เคยตีราคาขึ้นมันก็หายไป ค่าเสื่อมราคาก็หายไปด้วย เมื่อค่าเสื่อมหายกำไรก็โผล่ เยี่ยมจริงๆ

ค่าเสื่อมลดกำไรเพิ่ม ยังไม่จบครับ ในเชิงทฤษฎีค่าเสื่อมเหมือนการกันเงินไว้ในกิจการ ในอนาคตถ้าสินทรัพย์เสื่อมค่าไปจนหมดอายุขัย จะได้เอาเงินที่เก็บไว้มาลงทุนซ้ำได้ธุรกิจได้เดินต่อไป สำหรับสินทรัพย์ที่ตีมูลค่าใหม่ตามราคาตลาด แสดงว่าถ้าลงทุนใหม่ก็จะลงทุนเท่ากับหรือใกล้เคียงมูลค่าสินทรัพย์ที่ตีขึ้น การปรับลดค่าเสื่อมจะทำให้ว่าที่สินทรัพย์หมดอายุจะต้องกู้เงินมาเยอะเพื่อลงทุนใหม่หรือไม่ต้องดูกันต่อไปครับ อ่านเพิ่มเติมได้ที่บทความอ.สรรพงษ์ [2] ครับ

สรุปก็คือปัญหาน่าจะแก้ได้ อีกเรื่องที่ต้องดูคืออนาคตบริษัทจะสามารถเติบโตได้ตามแผนงานที่วางไว้หรือไม่ ถ้าสามารถทำได้ กำไรก็จะกลับมาเติบโตได้ครับ สู้ต่อไป TPIPL

[2]การตีราคาสินทรัพย์กับผลกระทบทางการเงินในมุมทั้งงบการเงินและการเงินธุรกิจ https://www.facebook.com/sanpong.limthamrongkul/posts/10210369780499295

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          Der Schwedenplatz-Wettbewerb und die 6 Entwürfe   

Im Wettbewerb für die Neugestaltung des Schwedenplatzes wurde jetzt die Shortlist von 6 aus 60 eingereichten Gestaltungsentwürfen vorgestellt. Wie nicht anders zu erwarten, sind die Entwürfe irgendwo zwischen brav und pseudomodern angesiedelt und sagen mehr über die Vorstellungen von Architekten über urbane Plätze aus als darüber, wie sich solche Gestaltungen auf die Bewohner und Nutzer dieser Plätze auswirken.

Das lässt sich ehrlich gesagt auch nicht trennen. Meine Kommentare zu den sechs vorgestellten Entwürfen orientieren sich auch daran, welche Ansprüche und Vorstellungen ich von einem an diesem Ort möglicherweise funktionierenden Platz habe.

Meine Kriterien

Ähnlich wie der Karlsplatz ist der Schwedenplatz weniger ein Platz als eine Gegend; auch hier haben wir keine klassische umbaute Piazza, sondern eine nach einer Seite offene Straßenaufweitung. Auch hier befindet sich auf der offenen Platzseite eine mehrspurige Hauptverkehrsstraße mit entsprechender Lärm- und Abgasbelastung. Dazu kommt, dass der Wettbewerb nicht nur den eigentlichen Schwedenplatz, sondern den gesamten Bereich zwischen Marc-Aurel-Straße und Postgasse betrifft, also ein momentan klar in drei unterschiedliche Bereiche geteiltes Areal: Morzinplatz, Straßenbahn- und U-Bahn-Station Schwedenplatz und den Platz vor dem Hotel Capricorno. Ersterer ist ein weitgehend ungestalteter Grünbereich über einer Tiefgarage, zweiterer eine dem Verkehrslärm ausgesetzte Betonwüste und letzterer ein von dichtem Baumbestand umschlossener Grünbereich. Insgesamt ist das deutlich eher eine Gegend als ein Platz.

Mein eigener Ansatz für eine Planung wäre es, dieser Straßenaufweitung einen über die ganze Länge durchgehenden Platzcharakter zu geben. Dazu wären einige grundsätzliche Interventionen notwendig:

1. Zum einen müsste der Platz klar von der Hauptverkehrsstraße getrennt werden. Eine Umbauung ist natürlich weder möglich noch sinnvoll, aber eine durchgehbare Begrenzung durch Baumreihen (und zwar über die gesamte Länge des Platzes) würde schon die notwendige halbdurchlässige Sichtbarriere schaffen, um einen Piazza-Charakter zu erzeugen und Verkehrslärm und -abgase zu mildern.

2. Der Platz sollte weitgehend als offene Fläche gestaltet werden. Es sollte in einem urbanen Raum dieser Größe keine Randzonen geben, deren Nutzung sich deutlich vom Kernbereich unterscheidet. Während kleine, möglicherweise auch noch unübersichtliche Bereiche leicht von Randgruppen eingenommen und besetzt werden können - es reichen dafür mitunter schon 3 Personen, die möglicherweise als Bedrohung empfunden werden -, ist es bei einem durchgehend gestalteten Platz ohne Nischen nicht so einfach möglich, diesen in Beschlag zu nehmen. Außerdem bergen Nischen immer das Potenzial, bei Nacht zu Angsträumen zu werden; auch dies spricht für eine weitgehend offene Gestaltung.

3. Plätze sind Kommunikations- und Interaktionszonen; es ist also darauf zu achten, dass durch ein Nutzungskonzept und eine subtile Gliederung selbst bei einem großen Platz Bereiche für Kommunikation und andere Nutzungen vorgegeben werden, ohne dass einerseits der Platz zerteilt wird oder andererseits eine große leere Fläche entsteht.

4. Der Bereich der Straßenbahn-/U-Bahnstation präsentiert sich momentan als Betonwüste, die direkt dem gesamten Verkehrslärm samt Abgasen ausgesetzt ist. Laut Stadt Wien steigen täglich 150.000 Fahrgäste pro Tag am Schwedenplatz um, an die 10.000 verlassen hier eine Straßenbahn. Ganz wesentlich über den Erfolg eines umgebauten Schwedenplatzes wird also der Eindruck entscheiden, den die wartenden Straßenbahnfahrgäste vom Platz haben. Es wird also dringend nötig sein, die Straßenbahnstation ansprechender zu gestalten, sie besser vor Verkehrslärm und -abgasen zu schützen und auch den schon sehr in die Jahre gekommenen und stark verhüttelten U-Bahn-Abgang komplett zu erneuern.

5. Gerne vergessen wird bei Architekturentwürfen für den öffentlichen Raum, dass dieser öffentlich ist und nicht alle Nutzer den Platz wohlwollend nutzen. Es sollten also Materialien und Objekte verwendet werden, die keinen schnellen Alterungsprozessen unterworfen sind; es ist darauf zu achten, dass sich keine Bereiche als "offene Mistkübel" oder Urinierplätze anbieten; es ist die Taubenabwehr zu berücksichtigen, und es sollen keine Flächen geschaffen werden, die für Graffiti oder zum wilden Plakatieren genutzt werden können.

Aus diesen Grundsätzen nun meine Gedanken zu den sechs Wettbewerbsbeiträgen:

N.B.: Aus rechtlichen Gründen darf ich die Bilder von der Website schwedenplatz.wien.gv.at nicht hier einbetten; ich werde daher immer die Überschrift zum entsprechenden Bild- und Informationsmaterial verlinken.

Beitrag 1

Dieser Entwurf trennt den Bereich genz bewusst in vier separate Plätze, was die Möglichkeit untergräbt, dem gesamten Bereich eine Identität zu geben. Ob sich verweilende Personen der vorgesehenen Nutzung entsprechend verteilen werden, scheint wenig wahrscheinlich. Dass gerade die abgelegeneren Randzonen als Ruhe- und Rastzonen ausgeführt werden sollen, wird wohl dazu führen, dass diese vermehrt Randgruppen anziehen und somit Attraktivität verlieren werden. Der Platz vor dem Hotel Capricorno bleibt ein separarierter Fremdkörper.

Der Bereich an der Straßenbahnhaltestelle bleibt quasi unverändert; es ändert sich nichts an der Lärm- und Abgasbelastung für die wartenden Fahrgäste, wodurch nicht zu erwarten ist, dass diese den Platz positiver oder aufgewertet wahrnehmen.

Die beleuchteten "Sonnenschirme" sind eine nette Gestaltungsidee, aber es bleibt offen, ob die weißen Membranen auch nach 5-10 Jahren noch attraktiv aussehen werden.

Positiv fällt auf, dass zumindestens im westlichen Teil versucht wird, mit einer Baumreihe entlang der Straße und einem zentralen Platz in Verlängerung des Rabensteigs eine Art Platzgefühl zu schaffen; dass die Vegetationsflächen überhöht ausgeführt werden sollen, grenzt jedoch den Platz ein und schafft teilweise enge Korridore und Nischen, die dem Sicherheitsgefühl nicht förderlich sind.

Grundsätzlich ein gut gemeinter Versuch, eine Art Park an die Straßenbahnstation anzuhängen, aber als urbaner Platz finde ich das nur beschränkt bis gar nicht brauchbar.

Mein Fazit: 4/10

Beitrag 2

Dieser Entwurf beschränkt sich auf zwei Interventionen, ist dabei aber erstaunlich radikal: zwischen Hauptverkehrsstraße und Platz ist hier nämlich eine 2-3-reihige Baumallee vorgesehen, in deren Mitte die Straßenbahn fahren soll. Diese Allee zieht sich über die gesamte Länge und bildet bei der Straßenbahnstation sogar ein kleines Wäldchen, was - sobald die Bäume einmal groß genug sind - eine ganz deutliche Verbesserung der Aufenthaltsqualität bringen wird und auch ein sehr spannendes Platzgefühl erzeugen kann.

Als zentrales Element im Westteil wird eine Art große hügelige Stadtwiese vorgeschlagen; dies, und vor allem die etwas arbiträr wirkende Einbettung in den Stadtraum ist wiederum ein wenig merkwürdig, vor allem, weil das durch die Baumreihen ermöglichte "Piazza-Gefühl" wieder untergraben wird, indem statt der Piazza eine Art riesiges Blumenbeet mit Wiese den Platz füllt. Das kann funktionieren oder auch nicht, es kommt dabei darauf an, wie das genau gestaltet wird und welche Nutzungsvorschläge eingebaut werden. Positive Gestaltungsbeispiele, wie etwa die Promenade du Paillon in Nizza, gäbe es ja. Aber reine Liegewiesen in der Stadt können auch ziemlich schief gehen.

Mein Fazit: 7/10

Beitrag 3

Wer in diesem Architekturbüro hat beschlossen, eine Visualisierung in diesen Farben einzureichen? Dieses Bild löst in erster Linie Assoziationen von realsozialistischer Architektur aus den 1970er Jahren aus, und es ist anzunehmen, dass der Beitrag allein wegen des Bildes wohl wenig wohlwollend aufgenommen wird.

Die Idee des Platzes als "Stadtbühne" ist ja an sich nicht schlecht. Die Anhebung der westlichen Platzfläche ist eine brauchbare Idee, um zu erreichen, dass Fußwege nicht mehr durch ein klaustrophobes Gangsystem von überhöhten Pflanztrögen führen, was auch das Sicherheitsgefühl positiv beeinflussen kann. Es gibt keine Nischen und unübersichtliche Bereiche, die zu Angsträumen werden könnten. Der Platz ist "bespielbar", nur sollte dafür auch außerhalb der Christkindlmarktsaison ein anrainerfreundliches Nutzungsprogramm erstellt werden, denn sonst bleibt dieser Platz ein kahler, leerer Präsentierteller. Ob es ein erfolgreicher urbaner Platz wird, steht und fällt also mit der Bespielung.

Der Beitrag bietet allerdings keine Lösung für den Bereich der Straßenbahnstation, wo die Lärm- und Abgasbelastung für die wartenden Fahrgäste unverändert bleibt, und der Platz vor dem Hotel Capricorno wird zwar nach Westen hin geöffnet, ansonsten wirkt dieser Beitrag aber ein wenig unschlüssig, was er damit tun soll.

Mein Fazit: 6/10

Beitrag 4

Man mag das ein wenig brav und hausbacken finden, aber das ist der Entwurf, der mir am besten gefällt. Er erinnert mich auch an Platzlösungen, die ich in Frankreich gesehen und dort als sehr gut gelungen empfunden habe. Dies ist der einzige der sechs Beiträge, der den gesamten Bereich vom Figl-Hof bis zum Hotel Capricorno wirklich als Einheit begreift und durchgängig gestalten will, ohne ihn in einzelne Sektoren aufzuteilen. Trotz Querungen und Straßenbahn-/U-Bahn-Station wird hier ein schlüssiges gesamtheitliches Konzept geboten, ohne dass einer der Bereiche wie ein Fremdkörper wirken würde. Allein dadurch wird der Platz auch für eine fußläufige Durchquerung über die gesamte Länge attraktiv.

Sehr positiv ist der über die gesamte Länge gezogene Grünstreifen mit Baumreihe zur Straße hin, wo zwar mehr Bäume möglich wären, der aber trotzdem den Autoverkehr optisch und aktustisch etwas vom Platz verdrängt, was eine Grundvoraussetzung dafür ist, dass Personen hier verweilen wollen. Viele kleinere, punktuelle Grünbereiche auf der gesamten Platzfläche schaffen ein deutlich freundlicheres Grünkonzept als andere Vorschläge mit wenigeren, größeren Grünflächen.

Gut finde ich auch den in einen Grünrahmen eingebetteten Platz in Verlägerung des Rabensteigs, da hier eine ausgewogene Kombination aus urbanem Raum und Grünflächen entstehen könnte - es vereint Elemente von Platz und Park, wirkt dabei aber trotzdem urban. Das Schattendach als Mittelpunkt in diesem Platz schafft eine Analogie zur U-Bahn-Station im östlichen Bereich des Platzes; es entsteht im Westteil des Platzes ein gutes Gegengewicht zum Schwerpunkt im Ostteil, wodurch der gesamte Bereich weniger "einseitig" wirkt.

Bedenken habe ich primär beim "Gedenkort" am Morzinplatz. So gut ich es finde, dass dieser eingeplant und etwas separiert ist, so hat dieser Bereich bei Nacht wegen der engen Zugänge doch ein Angstraumpotenzial.

Mein Fazit: 8/10

Beitrag 5

Dieser Entwurf löst bei mir ungläubiges Staunen aus. Der Platz verschließt sich zur Bebauung hin, öffnet sich zur Straße hin, am Morzinplatz wird ein Erdhügel aufgeschüttet und eine Brückenkonstruktion spannt sich über die ganze Länge des Platzes und anschließend auch noch über den Kai.

Die Überführungen mögen einen barrierefreien Zugang zur Ruprechtskirche ermöglichen, sind aber ein architektonisches Stilmittel der autofreundlichen 1960er und 70er Jahre, zerteilen den Platz und schaffen potenzielle Angsträume, Urinierwände und Graffitiflächen (Brücken sind für Graffiti besonders beliebt, da wegen der erhöhten Lage besonders gut und von weitem sichtbar).

Der offensichtliche Versuch, den Straßenraum und den Aufenthaltsraum ineinander zu integrieren, schafft einen leeren, kahlen "Verweilraum", in dem wegen des zu erwartenden Lärms (viel glatte Beton/Asphaltfläche, keine Lärmdämmung hin zum Kai) niemand außer Obdachlosen verweilen wollen wird. Das funktioniert schon am Praterstern ganz ausgezeichnet, aber ich halte es nicht für zielführend, auch den Schwedenplatz auf diese Weise "attraktiv" zu machen.

Dem Beitrag fehlt die menschliche Dimension, er erzeugt keine Räume, die als angenehm empfunden werden oder emotionale Bindungen zum Ort schaffen. Stattdessen definieren die Brücken den städtischen Platz als Transitort. Statt nutzbarem Stadtraum bietet diese Lösung architektonischen Schnickschnack, der kurzfristig Eindruck schinden mag, aber keine Funktionalität für einen Platz im Sinne eines Kommunikations- und Interaktionsraumes hat.

Mein Fazit: 0/10

Beitrag 6

Dieser Entwurf versucht wie auch Entwurf 4 eine Art "Park-Intervention" mit verschiedenen parktypischen Nutzungen, verzichtet dabei aber auf den zentralen Platz in der Mitte, wodurch es eben mehr Park und weniger Platz wird und nicht so ganz als urbaner Raum wirkt; hier ist der Rückzugsfaktor stärker als der Interaktionsfaktor, und es gibt hier wiederum Nischen, aber ohne dass der Platz zerteilt würde; er wird schon in seiner Gesamtheit gesehen.

Positiv also auch hier das gesamtheitliche Konzept, die Nutzungsvorschläge, die Trennung des Platzes von der mehrspurigen Straße durch einen Grünstreifen mit Bäumen, wodurch der Straßenverkehr zumindest optisch, aber hoffentlich auch akustisch etwas vom Platz verdrängt wird. Positiv auch die Multifunktionalität, die an diesem Platz wichtig ist, da sich verschiedene Personengruppen nicht auf einzelne Sektoren aufteilen lassen werden.

Als problematisch erachte ich dafür die vorgesehene Fußgänger-/Radfahrerbrücke, da diese einerseits aufgrund der Rollstuhltauglichkeit eine extrem lange Rampe haben muss, die den Platz zerteilt und Angsträume schaffen kann, und andererseits die Pfeiler und seitlichen Brückenteile prädestiniert dafür sind, als Urinier- und Graffitifläche benutzt zu werden. Wie sich die Rampe zum Donaukanal hinunter mit rollstuhltauglichem Gefälle ausgehen soll, bleibt rätselhaft.

Die genaue Gestaltung der Straßenbahnstation bleibt unklar; hier scheint eine Art großes Dach vorgesehen zu sein, aber anscheinend keine Maßnahme, um die wartenden Straßenbahnfahrgäste besser vor dem Straßenlärm zu schützen; der Grünstreifen ist an dieser Stelle nämlich merkwürdigerweise unterbrochen. Immerhin sind hier Grünflächen in Form von Rasengleisen für die Straßenbahn vorgesehen.

Mein Fazit: 7/10


Meine Präferenz wäre also Beitrag 4 mit seinem ganz gut gelungenen Kompromiss aus Piazza und Park. Beitrag 6 finde ich okay, ist aber halt mehr Park als Piazza, was ich für so eine zentrale Lage in der Innenstadt nicht so gut finde. An Beitrag 2 imponiert mir die kompromisslose Baumallee, aber die Wiese mitten auf dem Platz ist irgendwie hochmerkwürdig und hat für mich keine echte urbane Funktionalität. Beitrag 3 ist zu kahl und steht oder fällt mit der Bespielung, Beitrag 1 und 5 mögen bitte nie ernsthaft in Erwägung gezogen werden.

Und jetzt?

Da die Rückmeldungen im derzeitigen Bürgerbeteiligungsverfahren nur eine "Grundlage für die Empfehlungen des Preisgerichts an die Wettbewerbsteilnehmenden für die Überarbeitung und Präzisierung der 2. Wettbewerbsstufe" bilden, ist davon auszugehen, dass keiner der Entwürfe in der vorliegenden Form umgesetzt werden wird. Und selbst das Gewinnerprojekt der nächsten Wettbewerbsstufe kann noch an der Ausführung scheitern - wir denken mit Grauen an andere Plätze in Wien, deren Entwürfe eigentlich eh irgendwie brauchbar waren, die dann aber so minderwertig gebaut wurden, dass das Ergebnis nur noch als Tragikum bezeichnet werden kann.

Es bleibt also spannend.

          ส่องงบการเงินกลุ่มลิซซิ่งกรณีศึกษา GL   

หุ้น GL หรือบริษัท บริษัท กรุ๊ปลีส จำกัด (มหาชน) กำลังเป็นหุ้นยอดฮิตหลังจากราคาหุ้นวิ่งนิวไฮยังกะอะไรดี วันดีคืนดีผู้สอบบัญชีให้ข้อสังเกตนิดเดียวราคาหุ้นร่วงไป 3 floor มาสืบจากรายงานผู้สอบกันครับว่ามีอะไรบ้าง


สินทรัพย์รวมมี 17,000 ล้าน เพิ่มจากปี 2558 70% จากหมื่นกว่าล้าน แสดงว่ามีเครื่องจักรสร้างรายได้เพิ่มขึ้น


โดยปกติสินทรัพย์ส่วนใหญ่ของธุรกิจลิซซิ่งคือเงินให้สินเชื่อซึ่งก็คือยอดไฮไลท์สีเหลืองๆครับ สองยอดรวมกันประมาณ 6,000 ล้านโตไม่ค่อยเยอะเท่าไรเมื่อเทียบกับปีที่แล้ว


สินเชื่อที่โตเยอะๆจะเป็นสีเขียวๆที่ไฮไลทไว้รวมๆกันประมาณ 4000ล้าน คือลูกหนี้เงินให้กู้ยืมที่ผู้สอบบัญชีให้ข้อสังเกตไว้ โดยสรุปก็คือเป็นเงินให้สินเชื่อบริษัทเกี่ยวข้องกันโดยนำหลักทรัพย์คือหุ้น GL มาค้ำประกัน คิดดอกเบี้ยหลายก้อนเฉลี่ยแล้วประมาณร้อยละ 17 มันเยี่ยมจริงๆ ผู้ถือหุ้น GL ก็ต้องลุ้นอย่าให้หนี้ก้อนหนี้เป็นหนี้เสีย ถ้ายังไม่เสียก็รับรู้รายได้ต่อไป ผู้สอบบอกว่ารายได้จากส่วนนี้ประมาณร้อยละ38ของกำไรในงบรวมเท่านั้นเอง

ไม่เป็นไรมีหุ้นสินทรัพย์ค้ำประกัน ไม่จ่ายก็ยิดที่ดิน หุ้นมาขายคืนในตลาดได้ !!!!! แต่ตอนนี้ทาง gl ใจดีลูกค้าขอเลือนการชำระให้ยาวขึ้นเราก็เลือนให้ จะเห็นว่าส่วนของเงินต้นมาอยู่ตรงสินทรัพย์ไม่หมุนเวียนซะเยอะ ตอนนี้ก็จ่ายดอกเบี้ยร้อยละ 17 ไปก่อน ว่างๆค่อยมาจ่ายเงินต้นแปลกๆดี

 มาดูความสามารถในการชำระเงินของลูกหนี้สองรายฮอตฮิตกันบ้าง สิ้นปี 2558 ไม่มียอดค้างชำระ พอมา 2559 เริ่มมีค้างชำระส่วนปี 2560 ไปวัดใจกันต่อครับผม โชคดีครับ



ใช้เงินลงทุนไป 2489 ล้าน ระหว่างงวด 59 ได้กำไรมา 48 ล้าน ทำให้เงินลงทุนปลายปี 59 เพิ่มเป็น 2545 ล้าน และไม่เคยได้รับปันผล ดูจากตารางที่สอง ตีคร่าวๆลงทุน 2500 ได้กำไรมา 50 ล้านใน 3 เดือน เพราะพึ่งรวมงบมาในใตรมาศ 4 เป็นผลตอบแทนประมาณ 2% ทั้งปีถ้าคูณ 4 ก็ 8% ดีกว่าฝากแบงค์เนาะ

และเมื่อวัดมูลค่าหุ้นตอนสิ้นปี 2559 หุ้นตกนิดหน่อย ทำให้ถ้าขายหุ้นตามราคาตลาดจะได้เงินกลับมา 1200 ล้าน ขาดทุนจิ็บๆตีตัวเลขกลมๆประมาณ 2500-1200= 1300 ล้าน แต่เนื่องจากเป็นบริษัทรวมทำให้ราคาหุ้นขึ้นลงของบริษัทร่วมไม่เกี่ยวกับ GL ครับ เรารับรู้แค่ส่วนแบ่งกำไรใแต่ละปีครับ ถ้าเป็นเงินลงทุนเพื่อค้าตัวเลขขาดทุน 1300 ล้านจะบันทึกเป็นยอดขาดทุนในกำไรขาดทุนครับ

ส่วนสีม่วงๆคือเงินจ่ายล่วงหน้า เงินลงทุนในบริษัทย่อยๆที่ประเทศพม่า ไปอ่านต่อได้ที่หมายเหต 2.2 ยังไม่จ่ายเงินเต็มก็วางเงินมัดจำไว้ก่อน


ที่น่าสนใจอีกตัวคือสินทรัพย์รอการขายครับ ยิดรถมาเพี่ยบเลย เพิ่มจาก 30 ล้านมาเป็น 50 ล้าน

โดยสรุปแล้วคือบริษัทกำลังวางแผนเติบโตครับอาจดูแปลกๆหน่อยตามที่ไฮไลทไว้ไปเติบโตด้วยการลงทุนที่หลากหลายจนงงว่ากลยุทธ์คืออะไร จริงๆอยากเห็นโตด้วยเงินให้สินเชื่อตามสีเหลืองๆมากกว่า


รายได้จากสินเชื่อโตนิดหน่อย โตเยอะๆจากให้ผู้ถือหุ้นยืมดอกร้อยละ 17 ผู้สอบบัญชีเขียนไว้ในหมายเหตประกอบงบการเงินข้อ 9 ว่า กำไรจากส่วนนี้คิดเป็นร้อยละ 38 ของกำไรรวมในงบการเงินรวมสำหรับปี 2559 เลยทีเดียว แสดงว่าคนที่ถือหุ้นตัวนี้ต้องลุ้นครับว่า ลูกหนี้ก้อนนี้ต้องห้ามมีปัญหา

โดยรวมแล้วงบการเงินของ GL ก็โตด้วยวิธีไม่ธรรมดา สำหรับนักลงทุนที่ไม่ธรรมดาก็สามารถเลือกลงทุนได้ครับผม โชคดีครับ

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หรือสอบถามราบละเอียดและลงทะเบียนได้ที่ Line; pat4310, หรือโทร 086-503-5023 เพิ่มเพื่อน
          3จุดดูว่าหุ้นมีปัญหาการเงินหรือไม่กรณีศึกษา CHOW EFORL IFEC   

การกู้ยืมเงินมาทำธุกิจถ้ากู้ยืมมาแต่พอดีและจัดการได้จะทำให้กำไรเติบโตและราคาหุ้นพุ่งกระฉูด ส่วนหุ้นที่มีปัญหาเรื่องหนี้สินราคาหุ้นจะไม่ค่อยไปไหน เพราะวันๆเจ้าของบริษัทไม่ต้องทำอะไร วิ่งหาเงินมาโป๊ะหนี้ทั้งระยะสั้นและระยาว ไม่เหลือสมองมาคิดเรื่องการเติบโตเอาวันนี้ให้รอดก่อน ถ้าไม่รอดคือล้มละลาย วิธีดูว่าบริษัทจะรอดหรือไม่ดูง่ายๆดังนี้ครับ

อัตราส่วนความอยู่รอด CHOW
ที่มา ตลาดหลักทรัพย์ สรุปสาระสทเทศบริษัทจดทะเบียน

อัตราส่วนความอยู่รอด EFORL
ที่มา ตลาดหลักทรัพย์ สรุปสาระสทเทศบริษัทจดทะเบียน

อัตราส่วนความอยู่รอด IFEC
ที่มา ตลาดหลักทรัพย์ สรุปสาระสทเทศบริษัทจดทะเบียน


  • สั้นสั้น : สินทรัพย์หมุนเวียน คู่กับ หนี้สินหมุนเวียน
  • ยาวยาว : สินทรัพย์ไม่หมุนเวียน คู่กับ หนี้สินไม่หมุนเวียน
โครงสร้างเงินทุนที่เหมาะสมต้องดูธุรกิจด้วยครับ ถ้าเป็นธุรกิจบริการที่สินทรัพย์ไม่หมุนเวียนเยอะๆ ส่วนใหญ่จะกู้ยาวเป็นหลัก สำหรับธุรกิจซื้อมาขายไปที่สินทรัพย์หมุนเวียนเยอะๆ ส่วนใหญ่หนี้สินก็จะเป็นหนี้สินหมุนเวียน

ถ้าใช้เงินผิดประเภทเช่นกู้สั้นมาลงยาวชีวิตก็เหนื่อยหน่อย กู้ยาวมาลงสั้นไม่เป็นไร


อัตราส่วนสภาพคล่อง สินทรัพย์หมุนต่อหนี้หมุนมากกว่า 1 ดีแสดงว่ามีสินทรัพย์ที่แปลงเป็นเงินสดใน 1 ปีมากกว่าหนี้ที่ต้องจ่ายใน 1 ปี

modify current ratio การตีความเหมือน อัตราส่วนสภาพคล่อง แต่เปลี่ยนจาก สินทรัพย์หมุนเป็น เงินสดดำเนินงาน มาจากความเชื่อว่าหนี้สินระยะสั้นควรจ่ายจากเงินสดดำเนินงาน ค่ามากกว่า 0.4 ชีวิตก็สดใสแล้ว แต่ถ้าค่าติดลบก็เหนือ่ยหน่อย

หนี้สั้นต่อหนี้รวม หนี้รวมจะคิดเฉพาะหนี้ที่มีดอกเบี้ย (เงินกู้เบิกเกินบัญชี + หนี้ระยะยาวที่ถึงกำหนดชำระใน 1 ปี + หนี้ระยะยาวสุทธิจากส่วนที่ถึงกำหนดชำระใน 1 ปี ) ถ้าบริษัทที่หนี้สั้นเกิน 30% ผู้บริหารจะต้องเก่งมากหมุนเงินกันหัวปั่น



ในงวด 9 เดือน 2559
อัตราส่วนสภาพคล่อง  0.63 ไม่ถึง 1 แสดงว่ามีสินทรัพย์หมุนน้อยกว่าหนี้หมุน
modify current ratio -0.15 แสดงว่ากระแสเงินสดดำเนินงานติดลบ เงินดำเนินงานไม่พอจ่ายหนี้สั้นต้องวิ่งหาเงิน
หนี้สั้นต่อหนี้รวม 0.74 หนี้ส่วนใหญ่เป็นหนี้สั้น แต่ธุรกิจที่กำลังก้าวไปคือโรงไฟฟ้า เป็นสินทรัพย์ระยะยาวน่าจะกู้ยาวจะเหมาะว่า


ในงวด 9 เดือน 2559
อัตราส่วนสภาพคล่อง  0.5 ไม่ถึง 1 แสดงว่ามีสินทรัพย์หมุนน้อยกว่าหนี้หมุน
modify current ratio -0.2 แสดงว่ากระแสเงินสดดำเนินงานติดลบ เงินดำเนินงานไม่พอจ่ายหนี้สั้นต้องวิ่งหาเงินหัวปั่น
หนี้สั้นต่อหนี้รวม 0.71 หนี้ส่วนใหญ่เป็นหนี้สั้น แต่ธุรกิจที่กำลังก้าวไปคือเครื่องมือแพทย์ วุฒิศักดิ์คลีนิค และเครื่องสำอางค์ภายใต้แบรนด์ snail 8

ฟังจาก opp day ผู้บริหารจะแก้ปัญหาโดยการนำ วุฒิศักดิ์คลีนิคเข้า ipo ในตลาดหลักทรัพย์เพื่อนำเงินมาลดหนี้ต่อไป สู้ๆคร้าบ


ในงวด 9 เดือน 2559
อัตราส่วนสภาพคล่อง  0.33 ไม่ถึง 1 แสดงว่ามีสินทรัพย์หมุนน้อยกว่าหนี้หมุน
modify current ratio -0.03 แสดงว่ากระแสเงินสดดำเนินงานติดลบ เงินดำเนินงานไม่พอจ่ายหนี้สั้นต้องวิ่งหาเงินหัวปั่น
หนี้สั้นต่อหนี้รวม 0.46 หนี้ส่วนใหญ่เป็นหนี้สั้น แต่ธุรกิจที่กำลังก้าวไปคือโรงไฟฟ้า เป็นสินทรัพย์ระยะยาวน่าจะกู้ยาวจะเหมาะว่า
ทั้งสามตัวมา pattern เดียวกันคือหนี้สั้นค่อนข้างเยอะ กระแสเงินสดดำเนินงานติดลบ และสินทรัพย์หมุนเวียนค่อนข้างน้อยเมื่อเทียบกับหนี้สินหมุนเวียน

ถ้าถามผู้บริหารก็จะบอกว่าอยู่ในช่วงลงทุน รอเก็บเกี่ยวแป้บ ส่วนคนมองงบการเงินก็ต้องเอาใจช่วยหน่อย


ภาพโดยรวมของหนี้สิน ดูจากอัตราส่วน DE ratio ครับ ถ้าหนี้เยอะๆเกิน 1.5 เท่า ก็เอาใจช่วยผู้บริหารหน่อย

DE ratio ของ set จะคำนวณจาก หนี้รวมทั้งหมด หารด้วย ทุนของบริษัท
ใน ตารางจะคำนวณจาก หนี้ที่มีดอกเบี้ย หารด้วย ทุนรวม (รวมส่วนได้เสียไม่มีอำจควบคุมด้วย) เพื่ออยากรู้ภาพรวมหนี้สินของทั้งกลุ่มธุรกิจ ค่าอาจไมเหมือนตลาด

จากตาราง DE ของ CHOW 6.42 EFORL 1.06 IFEC 1.67 ในภาพรวม DE ของ CHOW เยอะสุด มาเอาใจช่วยกันครับ


หนี้สินมากๆเราก็ไม่กลัวถ้ามีปัญญาจ่ายหนี้นะ ใน factsheet ของ set ไม่มีอัตราส่วนความสามารถในการจ่ายดอกเบี้ยโดยตรง ผมจึงดูจากอัตราส่วนระยะเวลาคืนหนี้ (payback period) คำนวณจาก หนี้ที่มีดอกเบี้ย หารด้วย กระแสเงินสดจากการดำเนินงานหลังหักดอกเบี้ย

จากตาราง payback period ของ CHOW -18.40 ปี  EFORL -5.64 ปี  IFEC -156.33 ปี ค่าติดลบแสดงว่าบริษัทไม่มีกระแสเงินสดจากการดำเนินงาน มาจ่ายเงินต้น มาเอาใจช่วยทั้ง 3 บริษัทกันครับ

จะเห็นว่าการวิเคราะห์เรื่องหนี้สินไม่ยากเลยครับ ใช้ตัวเลขจาก factsheet มองแป้บเดียว ก็รู้แล้วว่าบริษัทจะเหนือยในการหาเงินจ่ายหนี้หรือไม่ เจริญในการลงทุนทุกท่านครับ 

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หรือสอบถามราบละเอียดและลงทะเบียนได้ที่ Line; pat4310, หรือโทร 086-503-5023 เพิ่มเพื่อน

F-Score เป็นดัชนีชีวัดคุณภาพของหุ้นด้วยเกณฑ์ทางด้านพื้นฐาน โดยแบ่งเป็นคะแนน 0-9 ยิ่งหุ้นที่มีคะแนน F-Score  มากๆ ก็ยิ่งแสดงว่าพื้นฐานดี สำหรับโปรแกรม Efinance ได้นำค่า Fscore มาช่วยให้นักลงทุนที่ไม่เชี่ยวชาญการวิเคราะห์ปัจจัยพื้นฐานได้ดูคุณภาพบริษัทในเบื้องต้นได้ง่ายขึ้น

F-Score คืออะไร

 Piotroski F-Scoreเป็นการวัดปัจจัยพื้นฐานโดยเป็นเชคลิซ โดยมีเกณฑ์ 9 ข้อคือ
  • การทำกำไร
    • ROA >0
    • ROA เพิ่มขึ้น
    • CFO > 0
    • CFO > กำไร
  • หนี้สิน
    • Current Ratio เพิ่ม
    • DE ratio ลด
    • ไม่มีการเพิ่มทุน
  •  ประสิทธิภาพการดำเนินงาน
    • GPM เพิ่ม
    • Asset turnover เพิ่ม
ยิ่งหุ้นมีคะแนนสูงๆ ก็แสดงว่าพื้นฐานน่าจะดี

 F Score และผลตอบแทนของหุ้น

การกระจายตัวของผลตอบแทนแยกตามคะแนน F score
จะเห็นว่าหุ้นกลุ่มที่มี F-Score สูงๆ จะมีการกระจายตัวของผลตอบแทนที่สูงขึ้นไปได้ ดังนั้นเลือกหุ้นที่คะแนน F-score สูงๆไว้ก่อน น่าจะรอดในการลงทุนได้

ตารางสรุปผลตอบแทนของหุ้นแยกตามคะแนน F-score

ดูแล้วหุ้นที่ F score สูงๆน่าจะรอดได้


ในการลงทุนเราอาจต้องการหุ้นที่มีคะแนน f-score สูงๆ เราก็สามารถเพิ่มเงื่อนไขลงไปในสูตรสแกนได้ครับ จากนั้นใส่สูตร เทคนิคอะไรก็ได้ตามที่เราถนัด
ค่า F-score ในเครื่องมือสแกนหุ้นของ Efin
หรือจะเข้าไปดูค่าของหุ้นรายตัวในเครื่องมือ Fundamental status ก็ได้ครับไม่ยากเลย
ค่า F score ในเครื่องมือ Fundamental status

จะเห็นว่าค่า fscore ช่วยให้เราสามารถลงทุนได้ง่ายขึ้นครับผม โชคดีมีชัยในการลงทุนครับผม


หนังสือใหม่จ้า ผ่าความลับงบการเงิน

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หรือสอบถามราบละเอียดและลงทะเบียนได้ที่ Line; pat4310, หรือโทร 086-503-5023 เพิ่มเพื่อน
          Excel สรุปงบการเงินไตรมาศ 3/2559    

งบการเงินไตรมาศ 3 ออกมาครบหมดแล้ว อยากรู้ว่าหุ้นตัวไหนเด่นตัวไหนสามารถคัดกรองเบื้องต้นได้จากตารางนี้ครับผม รวบรวมมาเป็น Excel สรุปผลการดำเนินงานกำไรขาดทุนของหุ้นในตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทย ไตรมาศ 3/2559 ให้เรียบร้อย

ในไฟล์จะมีสรุปผลกำไรของ ไตรมาศ 3 2015, 3/2016, 2/2016 การเปลี่ยนแปลงแบบ YoY QoQ คัดสรรหุ้นเด่นหุ้นดังกันให้สนุกสนานกำไรทั่วหน้าเลยครับผม


ติดตามเราได้ที่ Website : http://www.investidea.in.th
Facebook : http://www.facebook.com/investidea.in.th
Line ID : @investidea.in.th ใส่@นำหน้าด้วย


หรือสอบถามราบละเอียดและลงทะเบียนได้ที่ Line; pat4310, หรือโทร 086-503-5023 เพิ่มเพื่อน
          เบื้องหลังการหามูลค่าหุ้นด้วยการคิดลดเงินปันผล (Dividend discount model)   

การหามูลค่าหุ้นด้วยการคิดลดเงินปันผล (Dividend discount model) สมการสั้นๆคือ p = d/k-g แต่การคำนวณไม่ใช่เรื่องง่ายเพราะไม่รู้ว่าจะเอาตัวแปลไหนมาใส่ บทความนี้จะบอกสมมติฐานที่มาที่ไปสูตรการหาราคาเหมาะสม ทำให้นักลงทุนสามารถเลือกตัวแปรที่จะนำมาใช้ในการการประเมินมูลค่าได้ง่ายขึ้นครับ

รู้จักผลตอบแทนที่คาดหวัง k, WACC

ในการประเมินมูลค่าหุ้นวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อบอกว่าราคาหุ้นที่เราสนใจคุ้มค่าที่จะลงทุนหรือไม่ ถ้าไม่คุ้มก็จะบอกว่าแพงไปไม่ซื้อถ้าคุ้มก็ตัดสินใจลงทุน

ความคุ้มหรือไม่คุ้มในทางเศรษฐศาสตร์มองว่า ทุกๆการตัดสินใจมีค่าเสียโอกาสเสมอ เพราะเมื่อคุณเลือกทางใดทางหนึ่งต้องยอมสละทางเลือกหนื่งไป (เพื่อความอินให้เปิดเพลง ได้อย่างเสียอย่าง - อัสนี ; วสันต์ โชติกุล ประกอบ)

ดังนั้นการตัดสินใจที่ดีที่สุดคือ เลือกทางที่ค่าเสียโอกาสต่ำสุดนั่นเอง

เช่นมีสามโครงการ ผลตอบแทน 20 30 10 ตามลำดับ
  • ถ้าเลือกโครงการที่ 1 ได้ 20 แต่เสียโอกาสได้ผลตอบแทน 30% จากทางเลือกที่ 2
  • ถ้าเลือกโครงการที่ 2 ได้ 30 ค่าเสียโอกาสคือ 0 
  • ถ้าเลือกโครงการทีี่ 3 ได้ 10 แต่เสียโอกาสได้ผลตอบแทน 30% จากทางเลือกที่ 2

ในทางการเงิน "ผลตอบแทนของทางเลือกที่เราไมได้เลือกนั่นเอง" หรือผลตอบแทนที่เราคาดหวัง มักจะเขียนตัวย่อว่า k หรือถ้าที่มาของเงินมาจากหลายแหล่งก็จะนำแต่ละแหล่งมาเฉลี่ยถ่วงน้ำหนักกันเป็น WACC

นั่นก็คือถ้าลงทุนแล้วได้ผลตอบแทนไม่คุ้ม k ก็จะไม่ลงทุนนั่นเอง

เข้าใจมูลค่าปัจจุบัน (Present Value)

จุดเริ่มต้นของความอยากรวยเริ่มจากสมการดอกเบี้ยทบต้นและย้อนมาการหามูลค่าปัจจุบัน ทำให้แตกลูกแตกหลานออกมาเป็นวิชาการลงทุน ถ้าเข้าใจเรื่องมูลค่าเงินตามเวลา ก็เหมือนการเข้าใจวิชาการเงินทั้งเล่มนั่นเอง

มูลค่าอนาคต (Future Value)

เริ่มจากการลงทุน สมมติเรามีเงินปัจจุบันเท่าากับ PV บาท เอาเงินไปลงทุนได้ผลตอบแทนทบต้นที่ i ถ้าให้มันทบไปเรื่อยๆเท่ากับ n ปีจะได้เงินอนาคต FV เท่ากับ

มูลค่าปัจจุบัน (Present Value)

คิดมุมกลับสมการนิดเดียวคือ ถ้าเราอยากได้เงินในอนาคตเท่ากับ FV โดยที่เราเอาเงินไปลงทุนได้ผลตอบแทนเท่ากับ i เป็นจำนวน n ปี วันนี้ PV ต้องใช้เงินไปลงทุนกี่บาท

PV  จะถูกประยุกต์ไปใช้เป็นสูตรเบื้องหลังในการประเมินมูลค่าหุ้นอีกที่

มูลค่าปัจจุบันสุทธิ Net Present Value และการกำหนดมูลค่าเหมาะสม

ในการตัดสินลงทุนจะตัดสินใจจากมูลจากปัจจุบันของกระแสเงินสดว่าเป็นบวกหรือลบ ถ้าบวกแสดงว่าโครงการที่ลงทุนให้ผลตอบแทนมากกว่าผลตอบแทนที่คาดหวัง ถ้าค่าเป็นลบแสดงว่าโครงการที่จะลงทุนให้ผลตอบแทนน้อยกว่าที่คาดหวังก็จะไม่ตัดสินใจลงทุน

เมื่อคิดจะลงทุนต้องรู้ 3 เรื่องนี้

เมื่อคิดจะลงทุนไม่ว่าโครงการอะไรก็ตามต้องรู้ 3 เรื่องนี้คือ


ลงทุนเสียกระแสเงินสดออกไปในวันนี้สิ่งที่ได้กลับมาคือกระแสเงินสดในอนาคต สำหรับการลงทุนในหุ้น สิ่งที่ได้มาคือเงินปันผล หลายคนก็มองว่าสิ่งที่ได้มาคือกระแสเงินสดอิสระ (free cash flow)

สำหรับการประเมินมูลค่าหุ้น สมมติให้สิ่งที่ได้มาคือเงินปันผล D ที่จ่ายทุกปี D1 D2 D3 ..... Dn ตามลำดับ


โลกนี้ไม่มีอะไรฟรีๆ ถ้าในธุรกิจสิ่งที่จ่ายคือเงินที่นำไปลงทุนในโครงการทั้ง สินทรัพย์ไม่หมุนเวียน และเงินทุนหมุนเวียนที่ต้องใช้ในการทำธุรกิจ สำหรับการลงทุนหุ้น เงินที่จ่ายคือราคาหุ้นนั่นเอง


คำว่าคุ้มหรือไม่คุ้มถูกประเมินด้วย NPV เพื่อบอกว่าผลตอบแทนที่คาดว่าจะได้รับจากการลงทุนนั้นคุ้มค่ากับผลตอบแทนที่คาดหวัง k หรือไม่นั่นเอง ตามอ่านได้ในหัวข้อต่อไป

NPV Net Present Vaue และการคิดลดเงินปันผล Dividend Discount Model

 สำหรับการลงทุนในหุ้น เราจ่ายเงินซื้อหุ้นที่ราคา P บาท โดย "คาดหวัง" ว่าจะได้เงินปันผลในอนาคตเท่ากับ d1 d2 d3 ไปเรื่อยๆ จนถึง dn ตามลำดับโดยที่มีผลตอบแทนที่คาดหวังเท่ากับ k

NPV จะเป็นผลต่างระหว่างเงินที่ต้องใช้ในการซื้อหุ้นคือ P กับเงินที่ต้องใช้ลงทุนในโครงการทางเลือกอื่นว่าใช้เงินลงทุนในวันนี้เท่าไร ซึ่งในสมการก็คือตัวยาวๆที่เหลือนั่นเอง แปลสมการเป็นภาษามนุษย์คือ ถ้าต้องการ ปันผลในอนาคตเท่ากับ d1 d2 d3 ไปเรื่อยๆ จนถึง dn โดยเราสามารถลงทุนได้ผลตอบแทนทบต้นเท่ากับ k (ค่าเสียโอกาสของโครงการที่ไม่ได้เลือก) วันนี้จะต้องใช้เงินลงทุนเท่าไร

ถ้า NPV เป็นบวกแสดงว่าลงทุนหุ้นได้ผลตอบแทนมากกว่าผลตอบแทนที่คาดหวัง หุ้นจะขึ้นเพราะจะถอนการลงทุนจากโครงการที่ให้ผลตอบแทนเท่ากับ K มาซื้อหุ้นแทน

ถ้า NPV เป็นลบแสดงว่าลงทุนหุ้นได้ผลตอบแทนน้อยกว่าที่คาดกวังหุ้นจะลงเพราะคนจะไม่ซื้อเอาเงินไปลงทุนที่อื่นที่ให้ผลตอบแทนเท่ากับ k ดีกว่า



จะเห็นว่าเมื่อราคาหุ้นไม่ได้อยู่ที่จุดดุลยภาพมันก็จะแกว่งตัวอยู่รอบๆราคาเหมาะสมนั่นเอง เพื่อให้การประเมินมูลค่าหุ้นง่ายขึ้น ได้มคนชื่อนายกอร์ดอนได้คิด gordon growth model เพื่อช่วยให้การประเมินมูลค่าง่ายขึ้น โดยใส่สมติฐานเพิ่มเข้าไปคือ
  • เงินปันผลเติบโตด้วยอัตราคงที่เท่ากับ g
  • ถือหุ้นไปเรื่อยๆไม่มีที่สิ้นสุด ถึงอนาคตอันไกลโพ้น (infinity)

จากความรู้เรื่อง ลำดับและอนุกรมที่เรียนมาตอน ม ปลาย ทำให้รู้ว่า

สมการสั้นลงอีกหน่อย และราคาเหมาะสมก็คือราคาที่ทำให้ NPV = 0 หรือราคาหุ้นที่ทำให้นักลงทุนได้รับผลตอบแทนเท่ากับผลตอบแทนที่คาดหวังนั่นเอง

ให้ NPV = 0 จะได้

แปลเป็นภาษามนุษย์คือ ถ้าบริษัทแห่งหนึ่งมีผลปันผลปีหน้าเท่ากับ D1 ที่เติบโตอย่างไม่มีที่สิ้นสุดในอัตราคงที่ g และนักลงทุนมีผลตอบแทนที่คาดหวังเท่ากับ k ราคาที่เหมาะสมคือราคาหุ้นที่ทำให้นักลงทุนได้รับผลตอบแทนในอนาคตเท่ากับผลตอบแทนที่คาดหวังนั่นเอง

ถ้าราคาตลาดสูงกว่านี้คนก็จะไม่ซื้อเพราะรู้สึกแพง หุ้นจะตก ถ้าราคาต่ำกว่านี้คนจะมาซื้อเพราะรู้สึกว่ามันถูกหุ้นราคาหุ้นจะขึ้น



D1 ปันผลปีหน้า ถ้าตามสมมติฐาน เงินปันผลที่เห็นในสมการคือเงินปันผลที่เติบโตเรื่อยๆในอัตราคงที่ ดังนั้นการประมาณการตัองดูดีๆว่าปันผลที่เอามาเป็นปันผลจากกำไรปกติ และต่อเนื่องหรือไม่ ถ้าไม่ได้มาจากรายการต่อเนื่องต้องระวัง

g การเติบโต จากสมมติฐานบอกว่าการเติบโต โตด้วยอัตราคงที่ไปไม่มีที่สิ้นสุด ดังนั้นการเติบโตที่จะนำเข้ามาประมาณการจะต้องเป็นการเติบโตที่สะท้อนการเติบโตระยะยาวววววว ไม่ใช่แค่ 1-2 ปี

ส่วนค่า k ไม่ต้องคิดเยอะมันคือผลตอบแทนที่คาดหวังอาจจะกำหนดมาลอยๆ หรือประมาณการด้วย CAPM ก็ได้

จะเห็นว่าการประเมินมูลค่าหุ้นด้วยการคิดลดเงินปันผล เห็นสมการสั้นๆแต่ที่มาไม่ธรรมดาเลยทีเดียว สิ่งที่ต้องระวังในการนำการประเมินมูลค่าหุ้นไปใช้งานคือ ราคาหุ้นที่คำนวณได้จะเป็นราคาหุ้นที่เป็นจริงต่อเมื่อสมติฐานนั้นเป็นจริงครับ เจริญในการลงทุนทุกท่านครับ

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          Von der ungewollten Unehrlichkeit   

#Danke_Deutschland الالمان يستقبلون السورين بالورود شكرا من القلب لكل الشعب الالماني والحكومة المانية التي فتحت ابوابها بالابتاسامة والورود والمحبة بعكس كثير من دول العربية وشكرا من القلب للشعب الالمانيDie Deutschen begrüßen das syrische Volk mit Blumen. Dafür danken wir dem deutschen Volk und der Regierung von ganzem Herzen, dass sie ihre Türen für uns öffnen im Gegensatz zu den arabischen Ländern.

Posted by Talal Abk on Dienstag, 25. August 2015

Fühle nur ich mich komisch, wenn ich so etwas [1] sehe? Ich meine, ist ja nett gemeint und so, aber für mich ist das in erster Linie Ausdruck einer unglaublichen Naivität, die Menschen unbewusst und ungewollt verhöhnt.

Klar, Krieg gibt es bei uns derzeit keinen, aber angesichts von 4,5 Millionen Hartz-IV-Beziehern [2] und 12,5 Millionen, die in Deutschland in Armut leben [3], finde ich es einfach unseriös, bei Leuten, die in festem Glauben nach Deutschland kommen, dass sie dort problemlos eine neue Existenz aufbauen können, völlig falsche Hoffnungen zu wecken.

Ich weiß, das ist momentan eine unpopuläre Meinung - selbst beim sonst so vernünftigen Misik geht gerade eine Art Shitsturm los [4], in dem "Mitleid" und "professionelle Hilfe" für einen Journalisten [5] gefordert werden, der "schlimmer als die 'Ausländer raus'-Plärrer" [4] sei, wenn er unter anderem schreibt

es ist nicht die Aufgabe von Journalisten, in erster Linie gerührt zu sein. Von Politikern sollte man erst recht etwas anderes erwarten. [...] Stimmungen können sich verändern, in jede Richtung. Eine Politik, die sich auf Gefühlslagen verlässt, ist schnell verlassen. Es ist gerade mal ein halbes Jahr her, da haben die Deutschen noch hinter jedem Zauselbart einen Dschihadisten vermutet [...]. Man ahnt, dass es nicht viel braucht, um die alten Befürchtungen wieder zu aktivieren. [5]

Gut, im restlichen Artikel [5] steckt schon auch einiges an nicht wirklich Haltbarem drin, aber ich sehe beim besten Willen nicht, was an der Grundaussage selbst falsch sein soll.

Ich weiß schon, solche euphorischen Begrüßungen sind auch ein symbolischer Akt, ausgelöst durch unerträgliche Hasspostings und noch unerträglichere Hassverbrechen, eine bewusste Gegenbewegung zum Mob, der Menschen beschimpft und Flüchtlingsheime anzündet, aber sie sind, auch wenn sie gut gemeint und auch wirklich Ausdruck echter Gefühle sind, insgesamt trotzdem verlogen. Es ist der Unterschied zwischen einer freundlichen Begrüßung und einem wirklichen Willkommensein. Es ist das Erwecken des Anscheins, es gäbe in diesem Land Jobs für alle und keine hasserfüllten Menschen. Das werden die Flüchtlinge spätestens dann merken, wenn sie ihre Pläne, sich in Deutschland eine Existenz aufzubauen, umsetzen wollen und bei der Jobsuche nichts anderes als 1-Euro-Jobs oder Anfeindungen von den Deutschen finden.

Henryk M. Broder [6] spricht in diesem Zusammenhang davon, dass den Flüchtlingen das Schicksal blüht,

um mit Marx zu reden, [...] eine "industrielle Reservearmee" [zu sein], für die es keine Beschäftigung gibt und keine geben wird, das Lumpenproletariat von morgen und übermorgen. Was unser Urteilsvermögen trübt, sind die Bilder, die wir täglich sehen: von der griechisch-mazedonischen Grenze, aus Calais am Ärmelkanal, aus Freital und Heidenau in Sachsen.

Nein, man soll diese Menschen nicht abweisen oder zurückschicken. Man soll sie auch begrüßen, ihnen Wasserflaschen, Lebensmittel und Hygieneartikel geben, denn das ist ein Gebot der Menschlichkeit und Höflichkeit. Man soll aber heute nicht hurra schreien und Blumen schwenken, wenn die Gefahr besteht, dass morgen die Notunterkunft, in der sie untergebracht werden, von Neonazis angezündet wird. Hier zu feiern, dass sie dem Krieg entkommen sind, ist ein bisschen spät, denn der Krieg liegt mittlerweile zumindest geographisch schon mehrere tausend Kilometer hinter ihnen. Hier zu feiern, dass sie in Deutschland sind, ist unangebracht, denn "in Deutschland sein" allein ist noch kein Garant dafür, dass sich ihre Hoffnungen und Wünsche auch irgendwie erfüllen.

Jetzt sind Hilfe und Ehrlichkeit angebracht, nicht naive Euphorie. Vor allem haben sie sich nichts verdient, worüber sie sich heute vielleicht freuen, das sie aber in ein paar Monaten nur noch als blanken Hohn empfinden werden. So entsteht Verbitterung, und so entstehen Konflikte.

[D]ie Medien [lassen] immer öfter Migranten zu Wort kommen, die nicht dankbar, sondern enttäuscht sind. So habe er sich Deutschland nicht vorgestellt, klagte vor Kurzem ein Syrer bei der "Welt", der kein Wort Deutsch und nur sehr gebrochen Englisch sprach. Wie dann, ist man versucht zu fragen, wie dann? [6]


[1] Talal Abk, "Die Deutschen begrüßen das syrische Volk mit Blumen"
[2] Leistungsempfänger von Arbeitslosengeld II im Jahresdurchschnitt von 2006 bis 2015
[3] Bericht des Wohlfahrtsverbands: 12,5 Millionen Menschen in Deutschland sind arm
[4] Robert Misik, "Was verdienen Leute die jetzt solche Kommentare schreiben?"
[5] Jan Fleischhauer, "Die Deutschen und die Flüchtlinge"
[6] Henryk M. Broder, "Wer nur Mitleid empfindet, der hat keinen Verstand"

          ส่องงบหุ้นสายการบิน AAV BA NOK THAI 2/2559 ใครจะอยู่ใครจะไป    

เขาว่าธุรกิจการบินเป็นธุรกิจที่มีการเติบโตสูงจากตัวเลขนักท่องเที่ยวที่นิยมเข้ามาเที่ยวในประเทศไทย ธุรกิจสายการบินมันต้องได้ประโยชน์บ้างละน่า ฟังเขาว่ามาแล้วก็ลองมาส่องงบการเงินดูซะหน่อยว่า ใครดีใครด้อยครงไหน


ยกแรกมาดูกันที่ความอยู่รอด ใครมีหนี้มากๆและความสามารถในการชำระหนี้ต่ำๆ จะมีความเสี่ยงทางการเงินสูง หุ้นจะไม่ค่อยไปไหน

ถ้าเรียงตาม DE ratio จะเห็นว่า THAI มีหนี้ที่มีดอกเบี้ยต่อทุนมากสุดที่ 4.96 เท่า AAV BA พอๆกันที่ 0.4 กว่าๆ NOK ไม่มีหนี้เลย และหนี้ส่วนใหญ่จะเป็นหนี้ระยะยาวดูจากสัดส่วนหนี้สัดต่อหนี้รวมที่ต่ำก็ถือว่าจัดโครงสร้างหนี้ได้เหมาะสม เพราะเครื่องบินอายุการใช้งานยาวก็ควรกู้ยาวมาใช้

ดูที่ความสามารถในการชำระหนี้กันบ้าง AAV ความสามารถในการชำระหนี้สูงสุด Interest coverage สูงสุดที่ 7.31 เท่า รองลงมาเป็น BA ส่วน THAI NOK เสี่ยวหน่อยเพราะงบขาดทุน

แต่ถ้าดูว่ากระแสเงินสดพอจ่ายดอกไหมจากอัตราส่วน Modified interest coverage ที่เอากระแสเงินสดจากการดำเนินงานก่อนจ่ายดอกเบี้ยเทียบกับดอกเบี้ยจ่ายยังมีค่าเป็นบวกอยู่แสดงว่ายังพอจ่ายไหว

และหลังจากจ่ายดอกเบี้ยดู Payback Period AAV ดีสุด 2.41 ปีจ่ายหมด รองลงมาเป็น BA และยาวสุดคือ THAI ที่ 6.18 ปี AAV จ่ายหนี้หมดไวกว่าก็แสดงว่าขยายกิจการได้ไวว่า BA

ตอนแรกว่า THAI น่าเป็นห่วงแต่ยงมีเงินสดจากการดำเนินงานมาช่วยทำให้จ่ายได้ทั้ง เงินต้นและดอกเบี้ย ดูแล้วปัญหาที่สุดคือ NOK ถึงหนี้น้อยแต่กระแสเงินสดจากการดำเนินงานติบลบสภาพคล่องจะไม่ค่อยดีเท่าไร



มาดูการจัดการภายในกันบ้าง ว่าใครนำสินทรัพย์ไปสร้างรายได้ได้ดีกว่ากัน จากอัตราส่วนหมุนเวียนสินทรัพย์ (Asset turnover) คนที่นำสินทรัพย์ไปสร้างรายได้ได้มากที่สุดคือ NOK เนื่องจากส่วนใหญ่เครื่องบินไม่ค่อยมีเป็นของตัวเอง ถ้าไปดูในงบการเงินที่ดินอาคารอุปกรณ์น้อยมากส่วนใหญ่เป็นเงินสดและเงินลงทุน รองลงมาเป็น THA AAV ถัดมาเป็น BA

ถ้าเทียบผลตอบแทนในรูปเงินสด BA สูงสุดที่ 27% รองลงมาเป็น NOK ถัดมาเป็น AAV และสุดท้ายคือ THAI จะเห็น ว่าสินทรัพย์ของ AAV THAI ไม่ได้แย่สร้างรายได้ได้พอๆกันแต่จุดตางคือ ผลตอบแทนในรูปเงินสดที่สินทรัพย์สร้างได้ AAV สูงกว่า THAI มาก แต่ก็ยังน้อยกว่าพวกเช่าเครื่องบินเช่น BA NOK


มาดูการทำกำไรกันบ้าง ในด้านการเติบโตของรายได้เมื่อเทียบปีนี้กับปีที่แล้ว YoY ก็เติบโตดี NOK โตสุดรองลงมาเป็น AAV ถัดมาเป็น BA และท้ายสุด THAI แต่ถ้าดูแบบ QoQจะลดลงเพราะเป็นช่วง low season ของภาคท่องเที่ยว

รายได้โตยังไม่สำคัญเท่ากำไรโต คนที่รายได้โตสุดมีสองเจ้าคือ AAV กับ THAI เติบโตเมื่อเที่ยบแบบ YoY ถึงเท่าตัวเลยทีเดียว

สำหรับอัตรากำไรขั้นต้น BA THAI พอๆกันที่ 18% กว่า AAV เป็น lowcost ต่ำหน่อยที่ 15% NOK ไม่ต้องพูดถึงขาดทุนตั้งแต่กำไรขั้นต้นกันเลยทีเดียว

มาดูด้านการจัดการค่าใช้จ่ายในการขายและบริหาร ฺBA สูงสุดที่ 17% ของยอดขาย รองลงมาคือ AAV ต่ำสุดคือ THAI ถ้าคิดเฉพาะกำไรจากการดำเนินงาน BA ต่ำมาก เพราะ กำไรขั้นต้น 18% โดนค่าใช้จ่ายขายและบริหารไปอี17% เหลือจริงๆไม่เท่าไรเอง

มาดูกันที่ EBIT margin BA กลายเป็นสูงสุดที่ 14% เนื่องจากมีรายได้จากกองทุนสนามบินที่เขาไปถือหุ้นมารวมอยู่ด้วย และส่วนหนึ่งที่ไปถือหุ้น BDMS อยู่ 6% พอได้ปันผลก็บันทึกเข้ามารวมเป็นรายได้อื่นด้วย AAV มี EBIT ที่ 10% ใช้ได้อยู่

ส่วนอัตรากำไรสุทธิ BA ไปโดนค่าใช้จ่ายพิเศษจากภาษีที่มาเป็นรายจ่ายครั้งเดียวทำให้อัตรากำไรในไตรมาศต่ำผิดปกติ

ในแง่ของคุณภาพกำไร BA AAV ค่าใกล้ๆ 1 แสดงว่าเงินสดจากการดำเนินงานใกล้เคียงกับกำไรสุทธิ ส่วน THAI กระแสเงินสดล้ำกำไรสุทธิไปกว่า 9 เท่า แสดงว่า กำไรที่เห็นโดนค่าใช้จ่ายที่ไม่เป็นเงินสดกินไปเยอะเงินสดล้นบริษัทแต่ไม่สามารถปันผลออกไปได้

UPDATE งบการเงินไตรมาส 1 2017

งบการเงิน AAV

งบ AAV ผ่านไป 1 ปี ด้านโครงสร้างเงินทุนก็ปกติ สัดส่วนของหนี้กับทุนใกล้ๆเดิมไม่น่ากลัวอะไร สินทรัพย์ส่วนใหญ่เป็นสินทรัพย์ไม่หมุนเวียน หนี้ส่วนใหญ่ก็เป็นหนี้ไม่หมุนเวียน

ด้านการใช้สินทรัพย์ สินทรัพย์โต รายได้โตปกติดี

การทำกำไร รายได้โตกำไรโต แต่จะเห็นว่าอัตรากำไรขั้นต้นขึ้นๆลงๆตามราคาน้ำมัน ในไจรมาส สี่ ปี 2559 โดนเรื่องทัวร์จีน ไตรมาส 1 โดนเรื่องราคาน้ำมันเป็นขาขึ้น และการเพิ่มภาษีน้ำมัน

งบการเงิน BA
งบคล้าย AAV คำอธิบายเดียวกันแต่เปลี่ยนชื่น

งบ NOK

NOK นี่ชีวิตบัตซบมาก รายได้โต แต่งบขาดทุนกระจุยกระจาย ในไตรมาส 1 รายได้เพิ่ม อัตรากำไรขั้นต้นเริ่มเป็นบวก แต่ก็ยังไม่พอค่าใช้จ่ายขายและบริหารรอต่อไปนะครัส

ติดตามเราได้ที่ Website : http://www.investidea.in.th
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หรือสอบถามราบละเอียดและลงทะเบียนได้ที่ Line; pat4310, หรือโทร 086-503-5023 เพิ่มเพื่อน
          Excel สรุปงบการเงินไตรมาศ 2/2559   

งบการเงินไตรมาศ 2 ออกมาครบหมดแล้ว ตัวไหนเด่นตัวไหนโดนสามารถคัดกรองเบื้องต้นได้จากตารางนี้ครับผม รวบรวมมาเป็น Excel สรุปผลการดำเนินงานกำไรขาดทุนของหุ้นในตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทย ไตรมาศ 2/2559 ให้เรียบร้อย


ในไฟล์จะมีสรุปผลกำไรของ ไตรมาศ 2 2015, 2/2016, 1/2016 การเปลี่ยนแปลงแบบ YoY QoQ คัดสรรกันให้สนุกสนานเลยครับผม

ติดตามเราได้ที่ Website : http://www.investidea.in.th
Facebook : http://www.facebook.com/investidea.in.th
Line ID : @investidea.in.th ใส่@นำหน้าด้วย


หรือสอบถามราบละเอียดและลงทะเบียนได้ที่ Line; pat4310, หรือโทร 086-503-5023 เพิ่มเพื่อน
          ส่องงบหุ้น wiik   

เห็นหุ้น WIIK กำลังวิ่งๆ มีมิตรสหายถามไก่กันมาพอสมควร เขาว่าจะ Turnaround มาดูกันครับว่าจะไปได้จริงหรือเปล่า เดี๋ยวนี้หุ้น Turnaround ถ้าไม่มามีกำไรจริงตลาดไม่เชื่อครับ

ในแง่การทำมาหากิน จาก factsheet เขาว่า wiik เป็นผู้ผลิต และจำหน่ายท่อและข้อต่อท่อพลาสติกชนิดHDPE (High Density Polyethylene) ชนิดLDPE (Low Density Polyethylene) ชนิดโพลีโพรไพลีน (Polypropylene) ท่อ Weholite Spiroและ WehoTank, Weholite โดยเป็นผู้ผลิตที่มีกำลังและศักยภาพในการผลิตสูงและมีคุณภาพเป็นที่ยอมรับในระดับสากล


การเปลี่ยนแปลงของหุ้นตัวนี้เริ่มต้นจากการเปลี่ยนกลุ่มผู้ถือหุ้น จากเจ้าของเป็นยุโรป มาเป็นเจ้าของคนไทย นำโดยเบอร์ 1 นางสุมาลี อ่องจริต มีมือเด็ดๆหลายคน ลองเอาชื่อไปค้น google จะเจอประวัติครับ
รายชื่อผู้ถือหุ้น wiik 10 อันดับแรก

เมื่อมีการเปลี่ยนเจ้าของนโยบายการบริหารจัดการก็เปลี่ยน มาดูผลการเปลี่ยนแปลงในงบการเงินกัน

งบแสดงฐานะการเงินและงบกำไรขาดทุน wiik

งบแสดงฐานะการเงิน wiik

หลังจากเจ้าของใหม่เข้ามาแล้ว งบการเงินเริ่มมีการเปลี่ยนแปลงที่น่าสนใจในปี 2558 โดยที่มีการเพิ่มทุนเข้ามา จะเห็น ส่วนของผู้ถือหุ้นในไตรมาศ 1 เพิ่มขึ้นมากกว่าปี 2557 เกือบเท่าตัว

ตารางนี้เป็นรายงานการใช้เงินจากการเพิ่มทุนแบบเฉพาะเจาะจงในปี 2558  และใส่เงินเข้ามาตอนไตรมาศ 1 2559 ได้เงินมา 225 ล้าน ใช้ไปหมดเกลี้ยงตามนี้

สินทรัพย์ไม่เปลี่ยนแปลงจากปี 2558 แต่ หนี้สินลดลง แสดงว่าเอาเงินกู้ไปลงทุนก่อน พอใกล้ๆเสร็จก็เอาเงินจากการเพิ่มทุนไปลดหนี้ ทำให้ดูเป็นบริษัทที่หนี้น้อยไปในทันที

ธุรกิจจัดการน้ำเพิ่งลงข่าวในตลาดเดือน พค ว่า "การได้รับสัญญาบริหารจัดการระบบผลิตน้ำประปาระยะเวลา 20 ปี"

อยู่ไตรมาศ 2 งบที่ออกน่าจะเห็น ตามข่าวมูลค่าเงินลงทุน 140 ล้าน เป็นงานบริหารจัดการระบบผลิตนํ้าประปาให้แก่สยามอีสเทิร์นอินดัสเตรียลพาร์ค

ระยะเวลาสัญญา : 20 ปีโดยคาดว่าจะเริ่มรับรู้รายได้เดือนมิถุนายน 2559 เป็นต้นไป
มูลค่ารายได้ขั้นตํ่า:1,365.07ล้านบาท (รับประกันรายได้ขั้นตํ่า12,000ลูกบาศก์เมตรต่อวัน)

แสดงว่า จะมีรายได้ปีละ 1365/20 = 68.25 ล้าน 
ถ้าทำอัตรากำไรได้ซักครึ่งหนึ่งของ EASTW ที่ 34% เป็น 17% ก็ได้กำไรปีละ 68.25*0.17 = 11.6 ล้านบาทต่อปี ROI = 11.6/140 = 8.28% 
ถ้าทำอัตรากำไรได้เท่า EASTW ก็ 23.2 ล้านบาทต่อปี ROI 16.57%

ตอนนี้ ROA ของ WIIK อยู่ที่ 10% ก็ถือว่า ผลตอบแทนพอใช้ได้


ในงบกำไรขาดทุน รายได้ในปี 2558 โต เห็นได้ชัด แต่ส่วนที่ทำให้กำไรของ wiik เติบโต คือการเพิ่มขึ้นของอัตรากำไรขั้นต้น และการลงลงของค่าใช้จ่ายในการขายและบริหาร 

ถ้าเอาเงินที่ได้ไปลดหนี้เงินต้นได้ ดอกเบี้ยจะลดลงกำไรเพิ่มขึ้นอีก เยี่ยมจริงๆ

สิ่งที่ต้องลุ้นในงบไตรมาศ 2 คือ บริษัทยังสามารถรักษาระดับอัตรากำไรไว้เท่านี้ได้หรือไม่ ถ้าทำได้ ถือว่าเจ้าของใหม่เข้ามาและทำบริษัทพลิกฟื้นได้จริงๆ


PE และ PE เหมาะสมด้วยวิธีต่างๆ

ซื้อวันนี้ PE 12.49 เท่า ได้ปันผล 3.25%
ถ้าให้ PE เหมาะสมเท่ากับปันผลเฉลี่ยก็ได้ราคานี้
PE ปัจจุบันยังต่ำกว่า PE เฉลี่ย

ส่วนส่วนตัวมองว่า PE ระดับหนี้ก็กลางๆไม่ถูกไม่แพง ราคาจะวิ่งต่อ ต้องไปลุ้นกำไรงวดหน้าว่าจะโตได้หรือไม่ แผนธุรกิจเป็นอย่างไร 

จากงบการเงินจะเห็นว่า wiik ผลประกอบการเริ่มฟื้นตัว มีการปรับปรุงกระบวนการภายในให้อัตรากำไรดีขึ้น และมีการลงทุนโครงการใหม่ๆ ก็ลุ้นกันนะครับว่าจะดีได้ต่อเนื่องหรือไม่ สู้ต่อไป wiik

ติดตามเราได้ที่ Website : http://www.investidea.in.th
Facebook : http://www.facebook.com/investidea.in.th
Line ID : @investidea.in.th ใส่@นำหน้าด้วย


หรือสอบถามราบละเอียดและลงทะเบียนได้ที่ Line; pat4310, หรือโทร 086-503-5023 เพิ่มเพื่อน
          La India   

          ส่องหุ้น IPO BIZ   

หุ้น ฺBIZ ทำธุรกิจขายเครื่งอมือแพทย์ ช่วงนี้กระแสหุ้นการแพทย์กำลังมาพอดี มาดูกันครับว่าจะหมู่หรือจ่า เชิญเข้าไปอ่านโดยพลัน


ผลิตภัณฑ์หลักที่บริษัทจ าหน่ายได้แก่ ผลิตภัณฑ์ประเภทชุดเครื่องฉายรังสี(Treatment   Delivery) โดยเฉพาะเครื่องเร่งอนุภาคอิเลคตรอน (Linear  Accelerator) ซึ่งเป็นผลิตภัณฑ์หลักที่ใช้ในการรักษาโรคมะเร็งด้วยวิธีรังสีรักษาด้วยการฉายรังสีระยะไกล (Teletherapy) และเป็นผลิตภัณฑ์ที่มีความส าคัญและมีมูลค่าต่อโครงการสูง นอกจากนี้บริษัทยังท าหน้าที่เป็น Solution Provider ทำงานทุกอย่าที่เกี่ยวข้าง

สินค้าของ BIZ เครื่องเร่งอนุภาค
ดูจากสินค้าและบริษัท ต้องมองเป็นบริษัทซื้อมาขายไป เพราะไม่ได้เป็นผู้ผลิตเอง ระยาวต้องวัดใจกันเรื่อยๆว่าสามารถนำเสนอสินค้าและบริการได้ต่อเนื่องหรือไม่ วัดใจกันไป


โครงสร้างรายได้ แยกตามกลุ่มลูกค้า

ดูตามโครงสร้างรายได้แล้ว กลุ่มลูกค้าส่วนใหญ่จะเป็นโรงพญาบาลสังกัดมหาวิทยาลัยแพทย์ แสดงว่าตลาดเล็กลงไปอีก แต่โรงพยาแพทย์ก็เป็นที่ขึ้นชื่อลือชาว่าต้องมีเครื่องมือที่ พิเศษให้นักเรียนแพทย์ได้ใช้งาน ปี 2558 รายได้หายไป เพราะไม่มีงานส่งมอบ

ดังนั้นใครกะว่าจะถือหุ้นตัวนี้ยาวๆ กะถือกินปันผล ก็ต้องทำใจบางปีได้เยอะ บางปีได้นอย แต่ถ้ารายได้กระโดดแบบนี้ เหมาะเก็งกำไรเป็นรอบๆน่าจะได้คำใหญ่อยู่

เนื่องจากรายได้จะรับรู้เมื่อส่งมอบ ก็ต้องมูดูที่สินค้าคงเหลือว่ามีอะไรบ้าง ที่น่าสนใจคือ

  • สินค้าระหว่างติดตั้งเพิ่มขึ้นจาก 0.9 ล้านเป็น 51.93 ล้านบาท
  • สินค้าระหว่างทางเพิ่มขึ้นจาก 42.90 ล้าน เป็น 137.97 ล้านบาท

แสดงว่า เอาเข้าตลาดมาช่วงที่ใกล้ๆส่งมอบงานพอดี ในคำอธิบายเขาบอกว่า

ณ วันที่ 31 ธันวาคม 2558 และ ณ วันที่ 31 มีนาคม 2559 รายการสินค้าคงเหลือส่วนใหญ่เป็นสินค้าระหว่างทางซึ่งมีมูลค่าเท่ากับ 42.90 ล้านบาทและ 137.97 ล้านบาทซึ่งเป็นสินค้าที่บริษัทสั่งซื้อและอยู่ระหว่างการจัดส่งจากบริษัทผู้ผลิตในต่างประเทศ เพื่อรอติดตั้งและส่งมอบงานในปีถัดไปของงานศูนย์วิจัยและรักษามะเร็งกรุงเทพและงานของโรงพยาบาลมะเร็งอุบลราชธานี



จากอัตราส่วนทางการเงินจะเห็นว่า หุ้น biz มีวงจรเงินสดค่อนข้างยาว แบบนี้ถ้าจัดการไม่ดีจะมีปัญหากับกระแสเงินสดได้

การทำกำไร ผมว่าอัตรากำไรต่ำไปหน่อย และผันผวน ช่วงดีๆก็กำไ 9 % ช่วงแย่ๆก็กำหาย

มาดูที่อัตราการจ่ายเงินปันผล ปันผลกำไรสะสมออกไปทั้งหมดเรียบร้อย ในปี 2558 อัตราปันผลจากกำไร 1000% กันเลยทีเดียว

สรุปแล้วหุ้นตัวนี้ก็เหมาะสำหรับสายที่ชอบเล่นรอบ กำไรจะผันผวนเพราะรับรู้รายได้เมื่อส่งมอบงาน และงานพวกนี้ก็ไม่ได้มีบ่อยๆซะด้วย

กลต แบบแสดงรายการข้อมูลการเสนอขายหลักทรัพย์

ติดตามเราได้ที่ Website : http://www.investidea.in.th
Facebook : http://www.facebook.com/investidea.in.th
Line ID : @investidea.in.th ใส่@นำหน้าด้วย
สัมมนาวิเคราะห์หุ้นด้วยปัจจัยพื้นฐาน ดูรายละเอียดและตารางอบรมได้ที่http://www.investidea.in.th/p/value-investor.html
หรือสอบถามราบละเอียดและลงทะเบียนได้ที่ Line; pat4310, หรือโทร 086-503-5023
          Nasdaq 100 bounces back above 50-day MA one-day after snapping long losing streak above it   

The Nasdaq 100 Index bounced sharply back above a key technical level, just one-day after an apparent breakdown, but history suggests it's still too early to assume the short-term uptrend remains intact. The index rallied 1.4% to 5,753.03, while the 50-day moving average (MA), which many chart watchers use as a dividing line between shorter-term uptrends and downtrends, extended to 5,694.58, according to FactSet. On Tuesday, the tech-heavy index closed below its 50-day MA for the first time since Dec, 6, 2016. The 138-session streak above the 50-day MA was the longest such stretch since it closed above it for 166-straight sessions through Sept. 26, 1995. Back then, after the Nasdaq 100 snapped that streak on Sept. 27, it surged 3.3% to close back above the line on Sept. 28. It then fell 8.1% over the next six sessions before hitting a short-term bottom. The Nasdaq 100 has now rallied 18.3% year to date, while the S&P 500 has gained 9.0%.

Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news.


ความอ้วนก็เป็นปัญหาใหญ่สำหรับคนในยุคปัจจุบัน รวมถึงเจ้าของบล็อกด้วย จากนักลงทุนเริ่มเป็นนักลงพุงละ หลังจากเริ่มศึกษาวิธีลดน้ำหนักมาซักพัก ก็รวบรวมความรู้ไว้ตรงนี้ละกันครับผม เผื่อใครมาเจอจะได้ไม่ต้องเสียเวลาค้นหาเยอะ


กินน้อยไประบบเผาผลาญก็พัง เยอะไปก็ไม่ดี กินเท่าไรจึงพอดี บทความและการคำนวณ Taawut Kla-ngan จากกลุ่ม  Eat lean กินให้หุ่นสวย เขียไว้ดีมากครับผม แต่การคำนวณเสียเวลามากผมทำเป็นไฟล์ excel ไว้ให้เลย กดโหลดลงเครื่องตรงมุมขวาล่างของตาราง หรือนั่งจิ่มๆตัวเลขบนเว็บได้เลยครับผม

ในไฟล์มีแค่ อกไก่ ข้าวสวย กะถั่ว ถ้าต้องการอย่างอื่นเพิ่มเข้าไปดูได้ที่

สำหรับการกำหนดสัดส่วนสารอาหารมีหลายสูตรครับ ดูตามตารางแล้วกรอกตัวเลขได้เลย
การกำหนดสัดส่วนสารอาหาร โปรตีน คาร์บ ไขมัน
การกำหนดปริมาณสารอาหาร โปรตีน คาร์บ ไขมัน
ตัวเลขนี้เป็นแค่เบื้องต้นเท่านั้นการกำหนดสัดส่วนอาหารยังมีแบ่งเป็น 2 ช่วงอีกคือช่วง bulk lean อีก การปรับก็ต้องแล้วแต่บุคคลครับ อันนี้ต้องพึ่งผู้เชี่ยวชาญ สำหรับผู้หญิงไม่ต้องกลัวครับว่าเล่นกล้ามแล้วไม่สวย กล้ามขึ้นยากกกกกกมากกกกกกก เนื่องจากฮอโมนไม่เหมือนกัน
  • bulk เป็นช่วงเพิ่มน้ำหนักตัวเพื่อสร้างกล้าม กินไม่ถึงกล้ามก็ไม่ขึ้น เพิ่มคาร์บ ลดคาร์ดิโอ้
  • lean ได้กล้ามแล้วก็ต้องลดไขมัน ลดคาร์บ เพิ่มคารดิโอ้


ออกกำลังกายเหมาะสม นำหนักก็ลดลงได้ แนะนำช่องวิดิโอของมหิดลครับ มีคลิปให้ความรู้เยอะแยะมากมายเป็น 100 คลิปเลย แปะให้ทั้ง player list เลย

สำหรับสาวๆ เพจของ เบเบ้ ดาราชื่อดังก็น่าสนใจครับ กดติดตามได้เลย www.facebook.com/bebefitroutine

อันนี้เป็นตัวอย่างการวางตารางออกกำลังกาย เล่นกล้าม อก / แขน / ไหล่ / หลัง / ท้อง โดย ดร. เชิดชาย ปันจัยสีห์ ขอกราบงามๆเลย

ยังไม่จุใจไปดูวิดีโอสอนเล่นกล้าม ที่บ้านเพิ่มเติมได้ที่  : www.youtube.com/user/sixpackhome

1. อก (Chest)

สร้างกล้ามเนื้อส่วนหน้า อก

แต่ง อก ให้คม

สร้างหน้า อก ไม่ใช้อุปกรณ์ (Bodyweight)

2. แขน (Arm)


สร้างแขนหลัง ไม่ใช้อุปกรณ์ (Bodyweight)

3. ไหล่ (Shoulders)


4. หลัง (Back)

เล่นหลังให้เป็นรูปตัววี V-Shape

5. ท้อง (Abs)

สร้าง sixpack 1/2
สร้าง sixpack 2/2



เพจนี้ดีงามพระรามแปด ให้ความรู้ท่าทางการออกกำลังกายที่ถูกต้องแบบวิชาการ ยืดเหยียดอย่างไร วิ่งอย่างไรไม่ให้เข่าพัง น่าตามมาก www.facebook.com/Befiteatwell


โปรแกรมลดอ้วนต้องใช้เวลาเยอะ เผลอก็ท้อ ถ้ามีเทรนเนอร์เขาก็ช่วยบิ้วอารมณ์ได้ ถ้าไม่มีก็ต้องบิ้วเอง ใช้คำพูดแบบไหนคุยกับตัวเองให้มีพลังไปดูได้ที่

สุดท้ายขอขอบคุณทุกท่านที่ช่วงแบ่งปันความรู้นะครับ บทความนี้แค่รวบรวมมา นำหนักเหมาะสม สุขภาพดี ทุกท่านนะครับผม

ติดตามเราได้ที่ Website : http://www.investidea.in.th
Facebook : http://www.facebook.com/investidea.in.th
Line ID : @investidea.in.th ใส่@นำหน้าด้วย
สัมมนาวิเคราะห์หุ้นด้วยปัจจัยพื้นฐาน ดูรายละเอียดและตารางอบรมได้ที่http://www.investidea.in.th/p/value-investor.html
หรือสอบถามราบละเอียดและลงทะเบียนได้ที่ Line; pat4310, หรือโทร 086-503-5023

การขยายธุรกิจโดยการไปลงทุนในบริษัทร่วมถือเป็นแนวทางหนึ่งในการสร้างการเจริญเติบโต และการสร้างความมั่งคั่งให้ผู้ถือหุ้น บทความนี้จะพาไปวิเคราะห์ว่าเงินที่ลงทุนในบริษัทร่วมอยู่ตรงไหนในงบการเงิน และจะวิเคราะห์อย่างไร

บริษัทร่วมคืออะไร ความหมายและการบันทึกบัญชี

บริษัทร่วมเกิดจากการอยากเติบโต มีโอกาสเข้ามาก็ขอเข้าไปถือหุ้นซะหน่อย 20-50% ขอเกาะความรวยไปด้วย

ในแง่การบริหารก็มีนัยยะพอควรเพราะส่งกรรมการเข้าไปได้ แต่ก็ยังไม่มีอำนาจควบคุมกรรมการที่เข้าประชุมได้แค่รับฟัง โหวดอะไรก็แพ้

จากการที่ไม่มีอำนาจควบคุมการบริหารและการเงิน ดังนั้นในทางบัญชีจึง รับรู้กำไรส่วนแบ่งกำไรตามวิธีส่วนได้ส่วนเสีย

ในงบแสดงฐานะการเงิน จะเห็นรายการชื่อเงินลงทุนในบริษัทร่วม

เมื่อเวลาผ่านไป ฝัั่งทุนเพิ่มขึ้นหรือลดลงจากกำไรสุทธิ ที่มาจากส่วนแบ่งกำไร หรือขาดทุนจากบริษัทร่วมที่รับมาในแต่ละงวดบัญชี

ส่วนทรัพย์เงินลงทุนเพิ่มตามส่วนแบ่งกำไร ถ้ามีปันผลส่วนแบ่งกำไรจะลดลงกลายเป็นเงินสดในงบแสดงฐานะการเงิน

เช่น ต้นงวดมีรายการเงินลงทุนในบริษัทร่วม 100 ล้านบาท (เหมือนเป็นมูลค่าทางบัญชีของบริษัทร่วมที่เราถือ)  สมมติว่าคิดเป็นสัดส่วนถือหุ้น 30%

ถ้าบริษัท มีกำไร 30 ล้าน ก็จะเป็นส่วนของเรา 10 ล้านบาท

เงินลงทุนในบริษัทร่วมในส่วนสินทรัพย์จะเพิ่มเป็น 110 ล้าน และส่วนทุนเพิ่ม 10 ล้านจากกำไรสะสม

ถ้าบริษัทร่วมมีการจ่ายเงินปันผล 5 ล้านบาท เงินลงทุนในบริษัทร่วมจะลดลง 5 ล้าน ไปเพิ่มที่เงินสด 5 ล้านบาท จากเงินปันผล


เงินลงทุนนบริษัทร่วม ก็เหมือนส่วนทุนตามสัดส่วนของเรา อยากรู้ว่าบริษัทร่วมกำไรเท่าไร ก็ดูส่วนต่างปลายงวดกับต้นงวด

จากตัวอย่างต้นงวด 100 เงินลงทุนในบริษัทร่วมสิ้นงวดเป็น 110 แสดงว่ามีกำไร 10 ล้าน

ผลตอบแทนจากเงินลงทุนจะเท่ากับ 10/100 = 10%

การดูว่าลงทุนแล้วคุ้มหรือไม่ ถ้าก่อนลงทุน และหลังจากที่ลงทุนแล้ว ROA ยังเท่าเดิม แสดงว่าลงทุนแล้วคุ้ม

แต่ถ้าลงทุนแล้ว ROA ลดลงแสดงว่าเงินที่ลงทุนไปไม่โอ เพราะนำเงินไปลงทุนแล้วได้ผลตอบแทนที่ต่ำลง เสียโอกาสในการลงทุนอย่างอื่น


ติดตามเราได้ที่ Website : http://www.investidea.in.th
Facebook : http://www.facebook.com/investidea.in.th
Line ID : @investidea.in.th ใส่@นำหน้าด้วย
สัมมนาวิเคราะห์หุ้นด้วยปัจจัยพื้นฐาน ดูรายละเอียดและตารางอบรมได้ที่http://www.investidea.in.th/p/value-investor.html
หรือสอบถามราบละเอียดและลงทะเบียนได้ที่ Line; pat4310, หรือโทร 086-503-5023
          งบการเงินรวมคืออะไร แบบเข้าใจง่าย   

งบรวมหลายคนยังงงๆว่ามันรวมกันอย่างไร บทความนี้จะอธิบายความแตกต่างระหว่างงบการเงินรวมและงบการเงินเฉพาะกิจการอย่างง่ายๆ ครับ


ในการทำธุรกิจ หลายๆครั้งต้อง เปิดเป็นบริษัทย่อยๆ หลายบริษัทด้วยหลายเหตผลเช่น ต้องการแยกการจัดการที่ชัดเจน การขยายธุรกิจโดยมีพาร์ทเนอร์เข้ามาร่วมด้วยก็แยกบริษัทกัน หรือมีแผนที่จะนำบริษัทย่อยเข้าจดทะเบียน IPO ในอนาคต


พอเราเปิดบริษัทย่อยๆถือหุ้นเยอะๆ ก็มีอำนาจควบคุมในการบริหารงาน และควบคุมทางการเงิน สั่งได้ว่าจะให้บริษัท ลงทุนอะไร กุู้เงินจากไหน จ่ายปันผลเท่าไร

เมื่อสั่งได้ เพื่อให้เห็นภาพรวมของกิจการก็ต้องบันทึกบัญชีโดยเอางบการเงินของบริษัทย่อยเข้ามารวมด้วย

ไอเดียคือเงินลงทุนของเราก็เป็นส่วนหนึ่งของสินทรัพย์สุทธิ (book value) ของบริษัทย่อย เราก็กระจายสินทรัพย์สุทธิออกมาเป็น สินทรัพย์ลบหนี้สิน แล้วก็กระจายสินทรัพย์และหนี้สินของบริษัทย่อยเข้ามารวมร่างกับบริษัทแม่

จะเห็นในฝั่งขวา สินทรัพย์ และหนี้สินของบริษัทย่อยจะจับมารวมกัน ค่อยมาแบ่งกันในส่วนของทุน

ถ้าบริษัทที่เราสนใจมีบริษัทย่อย ในงบการเงินส่วนของทุนจะเห็นรายการ ส่วนได้สียที่ไม่มีอำนาจควบคุม หรือคือส่วนทุนของบุคคลภายนอกที่ถือหุ้นอยู่ในบริษัทย่อย มีกำไรก็แบ่งให้เขาไป

ส่วนในงบกำไรขาดทุน รายได้และรายจ่ายของทั้งเราและย่อยจะจับมารวมกันแล้วค่อยหักกำไรไปให้ ส่วนของผู้ถือหุ้นที่ไม่มีอำนาจคุวบคุมไป จึงเหลือกำไรเป็นของเรา


งบการเงินรวมก็เหมือนรวมๆทั้งสาขาใหญ่และย่อยเข้าด้วยการ รายการที่เห็นในงบจะหักรายการระหว่างกันออก

ดังนั้นแสดงว่า รายการที่เห็นในงบการเงินจะเป็นรายการที่เกิดกับบุคคลภายนอกเท่านั้น การวิเคราะห์ก็วิเคราะห์ไปตามปกติ


ที่มีปัญหาคือเวลาคำนวณอัตราส่วนทางการเงิน โดยเฉพาะ อัตราส่วนที่มีส่วนของทุนและกำไรสุทธิเข้ามาร่วมด้วย ต้องคิดว่าจะเอาอะไรมาคำนวณ


ROE ใช้ = กำไรสุทธิส่วนของบริษัทใหญ๋ / ส่วนของผู้ถือหุ้นบริษัทใหญ่เฉลี่ย


ถ้าจะดูภาพรวม = กำไรก่อนหักส่วนได้เสียไม่มีอำนาจควบคุม /รายได้รวม
คำนวณแบบตลาดหลักทรัพย์ set = กำไรสุทธิส่วนของบริษัทใหญ๋ /รายได้รวม


ถ้าจะดูภาพรวม = รวมหนี้สิน / รวมส่วนของผู้ถือหุ้น
คำนวณแบบตลาดหลักทรัพย์ set = รวมหนี้สิน / ส่วนของผู้ถือหุ้นบริษัทใหญ่


เวลาไปซื้อกิจการบริษัทย่อย ในบางครั้งชอบซื้อในราคาแพงกว่ามูลค่าสินทรัพย์สุทธิ (book value) ของบริษัทย่อย ส่วนที่เกินเขาเรียกว่าค่าความนิยม จะบันทกอยู่ในรายการสินทรัพย์ค้างเติ่งอยู่ในงบตลาดกาลจนกว่าบริษัทย่อยจะไม่นิยม ก็ตั้งเป็นรายจ่ายไป

ในทางกลับกันถ้าเราไปซื้อกิจการในราคาที่ต่ำกว่ามูลค่าสินทรัพย์สุทธิ (book value) ของบริษัทย่อย ส่วนที่ต่ำกว่า จะกลายมาเป็นกำไรจากการต่อรองราคาซื้อกิจการ

เหตที่ ต้องบันทึกกำไรในงวดนั้นเนื่องจากการต่อรองได้สินทรัพย์มาถูกก็เป็นฝีมือของผู้บริหารในงวดนั้น ก็เลยต้องบันทึกงวดนั้นไปเลยให้เครดิตไป

ในบางคนก็บอกว่า ถ้ากิจการมันดีจริงแล้วคนขายจะขายให้ในราคาถูกทำไม

สรุปหวังว่าบทความนี้คงให้ความรู้ในการลงทุนไม่มากก็น้อยนะครับผม เจริญในการลงทุนทุกท่านครับผม

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          เทคนิคช้อนหุ้น เพิ่มหรือลดความเสี่ยงกันแน่   
เทคนิคช้อนหุ้น เพิ่มหรือลดความเสี่ยงกันแน่

การช้อนหุ้น คือ การที่ราคาหุ้นปักหัวลง ลงจนคิดว่า มันไม่ลงไปกว่านี้อีก จึงควรซื้อเพราะ “เชื่อว่า” ซื้อได้ในราคาที่ต่ำสุด ต่อไปมันจะต้องขึ้น แล้วเราจะพลิกชีวิตกลายเป็นรวย แต่ปัญหาคือส่วนใหญ่มักจะเจ๊งออกมา เพราะหุ้นไม่วิ่งอย่างที่คิด แต่เราจะมีวิธีการช้อนหุ้นอย่างไรไม่ให้เสี่ยง มาดูกันครับ

1.Risk Reward Ratio เครื่องมือประเมินความคุ้มค่าความเสี่ยง

Risk Reward Ratio เป็นเครื่องมือสำคัญในการประเมินว่า จังหวะที่เราจะเข้าลงทุนได้รับผลกำไรคุ้มค่ากับความเสี่ยงหรือไม่ ถ้าผลตอบแทนที่ได้ไม่คุ้มค่ากับความเสี่ยงที่ต้องรับมากเกินไปก็ไม่น่าช้อนซื้อ การคำนวณเริ่มจากรู้ว่า จะเข้าตรงไหน cut loss ตรงไหน และจากจุดที่เราเข้ามีเป้าราคาอยู่ที่ไหน โดยการคำนวณตามสูตรดังนี้

Risk Reward Ratio = Risk / Reward = (profit - entry) / ( entry – stop)

นักลงทุนหลายท่านจะซื้อเมื่อ Risk Reward Ratio สูง ๆ เกิน 3 เท่าขึ้นไปเท่านั้น ได้ก็ได้เยอะ เสียก็เสียไม่มากพอร์ทไม่พัง เป็นหัวใจของ money management คือมี  money ให้ manage ตลอดเวลา

Risk Reward Ratio 


ระยะยาวแล้วหุ้นก็จะไปตามพื้นฐานเสมอ ถ้าหุ้นกำไรไม่โต ราคาก็ตก อนาคตกำไรเติบโตราคาหุ้นก็ยังวิ่งต่อไปได้ ดังนั้นการช้อนหุ้นโดยใช้ปัจจัยพื้นฐานต้องดูว่า ราคาหุ้นที่ตกลงมาเนื่องจากอะไร และต่อไปมีแนวโน้มที่จะกำไรกลับมาเติบโตได้อีกหรือไม่

การช้อนหุ้นด้วยปัจจัยพื้นฐาน PJW

ตัวอย่างหุ้น PJW ทำธุรกิจโรงงานผลิต แกลอนน้ำมัน ขวดนม ชิ้นส่วนรถยนต์ เข้า IPO นำเงินไปสร้างโรงงานใหม่ หลังจากเปิดโรงงานมารายได้ก็ยังไม่คุ้มทุนซักที มีไตรมาสสี่ที่ผ่านมากำไรเพิ่มเป็นไตรมาสแรก และไตรมาสที่ 1 ก็ยังกลับมาเติบโตอีก ส่วนไตรมาสต่อไปก็วัดใจเอาครับ

การเข้าไปช้อนซื้อต้องรอให้มีสัญญาณการฟื้นตัวกลับมาก่อน เริ่มจากระบุปัญหาของธุรกิจว่าเกิดจากอะไร ยกตัวอย่าง PJW กำไรตกเพราะยังผลิตไม่ถึงจุดคุ้มทุน เมื่อออดเดอร์มากขึ้น อัตราหมุนเวียนทรัพย์สินก็ค่อยๆเพิ่มขึ้น เมื่อบวกกับต้นทุนเม็ดพลาสติกลดลง อัตรากำไรขั้นต้นเพิ่มขึ้น กำไรเพิ่ม สตอรี่มา งบยืนยันก็สามารถช้อนซื้อได้ครับผม


เคยเห็นบางคน ใช้เทคนิคย่อรับแบบตามเทรน โดยการหาหุ้นที่กำลังวิ่งอยู่บนเทรน แล้วพายามหาเส้นที่รับอยู่ เช่น INET พอราคาลงมาที่เส้น 20 วันแล้วเด้งทุกที สายย่อต้องใช้ใจหน่อยโดยการ พอเห็นราคาลงมาที่เส้น แล้วดูว่าน่าจะรับอยู่ก็ซัดเลย ถ้ามันวิ่งก็ได้เงิน ปล่อยให้รันเทรนไป ถ้าไม่วิ่งและราคาลงมาก็ต้องทำใจคัดขาดทุนไป หาตัวใหม่
จะเห็นว่ากลยุทธ์การลงทุนแบบย่อรับก้มีได้บ้างเสียบ้างสลับกันไป ต้องลองทดสอบกลยุทธ์ย้อนหลังเรื่อยๆครับ


หุ้นบางทีเรามองแล้วว่าไม่เป็นเทรนเพราะ กำไรก็ยังไม่ได้โตไปไหน ราคาคงไปไหนได้ไม่ไกล ก็คงวนๆ อยู่ในกรอบ ถ้าจับยังกับพื้นฐานราคาหุ้นอาจวนอยู่ในกรอบ PE ที่เป็นไปได้ เช่นระหว่าง 10-20 เท่า ไปไหนได้ไม่ไกล

เมื่อรู้อย่างนี้เมื่อหุ้นลงมาเยอะ ๆ บางคนเอาชัวร์ เช่น ต้องให้หลุดกรอบโบลิงเจอร์แบนมาถึงเข้า ค่อยไปขายเมื่อราคาหุ้นวิ่งไปที่เส้นค่าเฉลี่ย หรือวิ่งกลับไปที่กรอบบน เพื่อเพิ่มความมั่นใจอาจดู RSI เพื่อคอนเฟริมว่ามันจะตกจริงหรือไม่ ช่วยได้อีกก็ได้

โดยสรุปจะเห็นว่า การช้อนหุ้นให้ไม่เสี่ยงต้องคำนึงถึงผลได้กับความเสี่ยงเป็นสำคัญ ถ้าผลได้ไม่ค่อยคุ้มกับความเสี่ยงก็อย่างไปเล่นมันเลย ใครไม่อยากเจ็บตัวซ้ำแล้วซ้ำอีก หรือเดินหมากผิด ก็ลองเข้ามาดูเทคนิคการลงทุนดี ๆ ได้ที่ลิงก์นี้นะครับ https://www.krungsri.com/bank/th/KrungsriGuru/Investment.html 

          ค่าเสื่อม (Depreciation) และค่าตัดจำหน่าย (Amortization) คืออะไร   

ค่าเสื่อม (Depreciation) และค่าตัดจำหน่าย (Amortization) คืออะไร ตีความและวิเคราะห์ผลกระทบที่มีต่ออย่างไร มาหาคำตอบได้จากบทความนี้ครับผม

ค่าเสื่อม (Depreciation) และค่าตัดจำหน่าย (Amortization) คืออะไร

ค่าเสื่อมและค่าตัดจำหน่ายเกิดจากสินทรัพย์ที่เสื่อมไปตามกาลเวลาและถ้าสินทรัพย์พังไปบริษัทก็ไม่มีเครื่องผลิตรายได้บริษัทอาจต้องปิดตัว นักบัญชีจึงทำการตั้งสำรองค่าเสื่อมและค่าตัดจำหน่ายเอาไว้ ป็นรายจ่ายที่ไม่ใช่เงินสดตามมูลค่าของสินทรัพย์ที่ลดลง ทำให้กำไรสุทธิต่ำลง และไม่สามารถจ่ายปันผลเงินก้อนนั้นออกมาได้ ต้องเก็บไว้ซ่อมแซมสินทรัพย์ให้ใช้การได้

ยกตัวอย่าง ซื้อรถมา 1 คัน ราคา 1 ล้านบาท อายุการใช้งาน 5 ปี รถมือสองอายุ 5 ปีราคา 2 แสนบาท แสดงว่าเราต้องหาเงิน 1 ล้าน - 2 แสนบาท = 8 แสนบาททุก 5 ปี เพื่อซื้อรถคันใหม่

ถ้าเราตัดค่าเสื่อมราคาแบบเส้นตรง (ราคาทุน - ซาก)/จำนวนปี = (1,000,000-200,000)/5 = 160,000

แสดงว่าถ้าเราหยอดกระปุ่กเก็บไว้ปีละ 160,000 สิ้นปีที่ 5 จะมีเงิน 800,000 บาท บวกค่าซาก 200,000 ได้เงิน 1,000,000 บาทไว้ซื้อรถใหม่พอดี

ดังนั้นนักบัญชีจึง นำ 160,000 เป็นรายจ่ายทำให้กำไรตำลงเหมือนบังคับให้เราเก็บไว้ซ่อมแซม หรือซื้อหม่กลายๆ

ค่าเสื่อม (Depreciation) และค่าตัดจำหน่าย (Amortization) แตกต่างกันอย่างไร

ค่าเสื่อมราคา (Depreciation) คิดจากสินทรัพย์มีตัวตน เช่นพวกที่ดิน อาคาร อุปกรณ์

ค่าตัดจำหน่าย (Amortization) คิดจากสินทรัพย์ไม่มีตัวตน เช่นสิทธิการเช่า ลิขสิทธ์

ค่าเสื่อม (Depreciation) และค่าตัดจำหน่าย (Amortization) เป็นค่าใช้จ่ายหรือไม่

ค่าเสื่อมแม้จะเป็นรายจ่ายที่ไม่เป็นเงินสด แต่ผมมองเหมือนเป็นค่าใช่จ่ายคงที่ตัวหนึ่งในงบที่เป็นผลมาจากการตัดสินใจลงทุนของกิจการ

บริษัทที่งบขาดทุนเพราะโดนค่าเสื่อม วิธีการสังเกตอาจดูได้จาก EBIT ติดลบ แต่ EBITDA เป็นบวกแสดงให้เห็นว่าบริหารงานไม่เก่งใช้สินทรัพย์ไปสร้างรายได้ไม่พอเลี้ยงการเสื่อมของสินทรัพย์ แก้ยากมากต้องหาวิธีหารายได้เพิ่ม ลดค่าใช้จ่าย หรือตัดขายสินทรัพย์ที่ไม่จำเป็นทิ้ง

บริษัทที่ตัดค่าเสื่อมน้อยเกินไป อนาคตสินทรัพย์อาจพังก่อนที่ค่าเสื่อมจะตัดจำหน่ายหมด อาจต้องกู้หนี้ยืมสินมาลงทุน หรือบริษัทที่ตัดมากเกินไป ก็ตัดค่าเสื่อมหมดก่อนที่สินทรัพย์จะหมดอายุ เสียดายเวลาที่ปีแรกไม่ได้จ่ายเงินปันผล


ถ้ามองว่า ค่าเสื่อมและค่าตัดจำหน่่ายเป็นมูลค่าสินทรัพย์ที่ลดลง เมื่อไปดูในงบกระแสเงินสดจากการลงทุนรายการเงินลงทุนในที่ดินอาคารอุปกรณ์ จับมาเทียบกันว่าลงทุนไปกี่เท่าของค่าเสื่อม

บริษัทที่ลงทุนเท่ากับค่าเสื่อมเป็นเพียงแค่การซ่อมแซม บริษัทที่ลงทุนมากๆ สัดส่วนนี้มักมากกว่า 2 เท่าขึ้นไป

บริษัทที่ลงทุนมากกว่าค่าเสื่อมเยอะๆ และสินทรัพย์สามารถสร้างรายได้ได้ ทัน ROA สม่ำเสมอ ถือว่าบริษัทลงทุนได้ดี สร้างการเจริญเติบโตให้กับบริษัท

จะเห็นว่า ค่าเสื่อมราคา และค่าตัดจำหน่าย สามารถบอกอะไรในกิจการได้หลายๆอยาง เจริญในการลงทุนทุกท่านครับ

ติดตามเราได้ที่ Website : http://www.investidea.in.th
Facebook : http://www.facebook.com/investidea.in.th
Line ID : @investidea.in.th ใส่@นำหน้าด้วย
สัมมนาวิเคราะห์หุ้นด้วยปัจจัยพื้นฐาน ดูรายละเอียดและตารางอบรมได้ที่http://www.investidea.in.th/p/value-investor.html
หรือสอบถามราบละเอียดและลงทะเบียนได้ที่ Line; pat4310, หรือโทร 086-503-5023
          ปัจจัยกำหนด PBV และการหาราคาเหมาะสม   

PBV หรืออัตราส่วน ราคาต่อมูลค่าทางบัญชี เป็นอัตราส่วนที่นิยมในการประเมินมูลค่าหุ้น บทความนี้ก็จะมาหาปัจจัยที่มีนัยยะสำคัญในการกำหนด PBV และการประมาณค่า PBV ที่เหมาะสมจากตัวเลขทางการเงินครับ

ปัจจัยกำหนด PBV ทางทฤษฎี

เรารู้ว่า PBV = PE x ROE

PE = b / (k-g)
PBV = b / (k-g) x ROE

b คืออัตราการจ่ายเงินปันผลจากกำไร

k-g มันประเมินยาก ดังนั้นจึงประมาณการ k-g จาก DDM
p = d/k-g
k-g = d/p = Yield% ผลตอบแทนเงินปันผล

ROE = ROA x (1+DE)

จากการย้ายข้างสมการไปๆมา ทำให้เลือกตัวแปรมา 4 ตัวคือ

  1. อัตราการจ่ายเงินปันผลจากกำไร b ถ้าเพิ่มขึ้น PBV จะเพิ่ม
  2. อัตราผลตอบแทนเงินปันผล ถ้าเพิ่มขึ้น PBV จะลดลง
  3. ROA เพิ่มขึ้น PBV จะเพิ่ม
  4. DE เพิ่ม PBV เพิ่ม

ผลการประมาณการ PBV ด้วยวิธี Regression

ข้อมูลที่ใช้เป็นข้อมูลภาคตัดขวางจาก web siamchart.com/stock ก็อบข้อมูลมาวันที่ 2 พค จากการประมาณการได้ผลดังภาพ

สมการคือ PBV = 2.55 + 0.121 DE + 0.063 ROA -0.226Yield

มีความสัมพันธ์กันอย่างมีนัยสำคัญ ยกเว้น DE ที่มีนัยสำคัญที่ 90


  1. DE เพิ่ม PBV เพิ่ม
  2. ROA เพิ่ม PBV เพิ่ม
  3. Yield เพิ่ม PBV ลด

ผ่านมา 1 ปีวันที่ 4 พค 2560 ได้สมการดังภาพ
    ผลสมการของปี 2560 ข้อมูลวันที่ 4 พค

    PBV = 1.38 + 0.32DE + 0.23ROA - 0.4Yield


    ถ้าเรารู้ ค่า PBV ที่เหมาะสมก็สามารถหาราคาเป้าหมายได้เลย 

    PBV = P / BV

    p = PBV x BV

    ตัวอย่างหุ้น MINT 

    อัตราส่วนหนี้สินต่อส่วนของผู้ถือหุ้น 1.82 เท่า
    อัตราผลตอบแทนจากสินทรัพย์ 10.41 %

    อัตราเงินปันผลตอบแทน 0.94 %

    PBV = 2.55 + 0.121 (1.82) + 0.063 (10.41) -0.226(0.94 )
    = 3.21 เท่า

    มูลค่าหุ้นทางบัญชีต่อหุ้น (บาท/หุ้น) 7.45

    ราคาหุ้นเท่ากับ 7.45 x 3.21 = 23.94 บาท


    มูลค่าเหมาะสม MINT

    ราคาวันนี้แพงไปหน่อย แต่กิจการเขาดีมูลค่ากิจการก็สูงขึ้นเรื่อยๆ ถ้าเจอแบบนี้ก็ต้องถือยาวๆ
    มูลค่าเหมาะสม AS
    เมื่อทดลองนำไปประมาณการมูลค่าของหุ้น AS จะเห็นว่าเมื่อผลประกอบการแย่งลง มูลค่าของกิจการที่จะแย่งลงตามไปด้วย

    ดังนั้นการลงทุน หัวใจอันแรกคือหาหุ้นที่มูลค่ากำลังสูงขึ้น

    การหา PE ที่เหมาะสม

    หรือจะประยุกต์มาหาค่า PE เหมาะสมก็ได้
    PE = PBV / ROE

    ROE = 23.14%

    จะเอามาใส่สมการก็ต้องหาร 100 ก่อนได้ 0.2314
    จะได้ PE เท่ากับ 13.88 เท่า

    สรุปว่าตัวแปรกำหนด PBV ทฤษฎี มีนัยสำคัญทางสถิติกับข้อมูลในตลาดหลักทรัพย์

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    สัมมนาวิเคราะห์หุ้นด้วยปัจจัยพื้นฐาน ดูรายละเอียดและตารางอบรมได้ที่http://www.investidea.in.th/p/value-investor.html
    หรือสอบถามราบละเอียดและลงทะเบียนได้ที่ Line; pat4310, หรือโทร 086-503-5023
    มีคนถามว่า สินค้าคงเหลือมูลค่าลดลงมีผลกระทบต่องบการเงินและความเชื่อมโยง ยังไง อธิบายทางโทรศัพย์ยังมึน พูด เดบิตเครดิต ก็ยิ่งมึน เลยทำเป็นภาพแสดงเป็นขั้นตอนมาดังนี้

    แนวคิดหลักมาจาก เราไปซื้อสินค้าคงเหลือกะว่าจะเอาไปขายให้เกิดกำไรเพิ่มความมังคั่ง พลิกชีวิตให้ดีขึ้น

    แต่เจ้ากรรมราคาสินค้าดันลดลงทำให้มูลค่าสุทธิที่จะได้รับลดลง ในเวลาปิดบัญชีเลยบันทึกส่วนที่ลดลงเป็นขาดทุนในงวดนั้นไปเลย

    มาตรฐานบัญชีบอกว่า มูลค่าที่ลดลงของสินค้าคงเหลือเนื่องจากการปรับมูลค่าให้เท่ากับมูลค่าสุทธิที่จะได้รับ รวมทั้งผลขาดทุนทั้งหมดที่เกี่ยวกับสินค้าคงเหลือต้องบันทึกเป็นค่าใช้จ่ายในงวดที่ปรับมูลค่าสินค้าให้ลดลงหรือมีผลขาดทุนเกิดขึ้น


    สินทรัพย์ลดลง => รายจ่าย => ทุนลดลง
    ในงบกำไรขาดทุนต้นทุนขายงวดที่ด้อยค่าจะเพิ่มขึ้น ทำให้อัตรากำไรขั้นต้นลดลง

    ทำให้มึนขึ้นดังนี้ แนะนำให้นอนให้เพียงพอแล้วค่อยมาอ่าน


    1.1นำเงินมาลงทุน 1,000 บาท  
    1.2เอาเงิน 1000 บาทไปซื้อสินค้าคงเหลือ 
    จะเห็นตัวเลขในงบกระแสเงินสด 1.3 คือเงินสดหายไป 1000 ไปซื้อสินค้าคงเหลือ


    วันสิ้นงวดราคาตลาดลดลงเหลือ 800 ความซวยบังเกิดเพราะซื้อของมา 1,000 นึง


    เมื่อเกิดขาดทุนในข้อสอง ก็ต้องบันทึกขาดทุนจากการด้อยค้าในสินทรัพย์ เป็น 3.2 รายจ่าย 200 เกิดจาก 3.2มูลค่าลดลงไป 200 

    ในงบกระแสเงินสด รายการนี้ไม่ได้จ่ายออกไปเป็นเงินสด ต้องเอามาบวกกลับ 200 ตาม 3.3

    4.กำไรสุทธิ และกำไรสะสม

    4.1 จากขาดทุนในข้อสามทำให้งบกำไรขาดทุนเกิดผลขาดทุน 200 กระทบชิ่งไป 4.2กำไรสะสมติดลบ 200 


    การการด้อยค่าทำให้ 5.2 ทุนลดลง 200 จาก 1000 เป็น 800 เหตจาก 5.1  สินทรัพย์มูลค่าลดลง 200 1000 เป็น 800


    รับเงินสด 800 จากการขายสินได้ 800 ตามที่ประมาณการเป๊ะๆ

    7,8.สินค้าคงเหลือ รายการปรับมูลค่าและต้นทุนขาย

    ต้นทุนขาย = สินค้าคงเหลือต้นงวด + ซื้อเพิ่ม - ปลายงวด
    = 1,000 + 0 - 0 

    ที่สินค้าคงเหลือยังเป็น 1000 เพราะรายการปรับปรุงบัญชีไม่ได้นำมาตัดกับสินค้าคงเหลือโดยตรง

    ส่วนรายการปรับมูลค่า -200 งวดที่แล้ว ก็กลับรายการ 8.1 มาเป็น 200 จะเห็นยอดคงเหลือในงบดุล8.2 เท่ากับ 0 

    ดังนั้นต้นทุนขายในงบกำไรขาดทุนจึงเป็น -1000 + 200 = -800

    ส่วนในงบกระแสเงินสด จะเห็นรายการ 8.3 เป็นยอดหักออกเนื่องจากเป็นรายการที่ไม่ใช่เงินสด

    จะเห็นว่าถ้างวดหน้าไม่มีการด้อยค่าสินค้าคงเหลือล็อทใหม่เพิ่มเต็ม ในงบกระแสเงินสดจะเห็นการกลับรายการด้อยค่ามาทั้งจำนวน

    ถ้าเห็นตัวเลขกลับรายการมาไม่หมด เช่นในงบกระแสเงินสด ปีที่ 0 เห็น 200 งวดที่ 1 มีค่า -150 แสดงว่า สินค้าคงเหลือสิ้นงวดที่ 1 มีการด้อยค่าเพิ่มเติม 50 (-200 + 50 = -150)


    กำไรจะเท่ากับ 0 กำไรสะสมก็ไม่เปลี่ยนแปลง เพราะเราเอาขาดทุนที่คาดว่าจะเกิดในอนาคตมากระทบไว้ในงวดที่แล้ว


    เงินสดเพิ่มขึ้น 800 จากการขาย

    สรุปผลกระทบชิ่งแบบง่ายๆสั้นๆ คือ สินทรัพย์ลดลง => รายจ่าย => ทุนลดลง
    ในงบกำไรขาดทุนต้นทุนขายงวดที่ด้อยค่าจะเพิ่มขึ้น ทำให้อัตรากำไรขั้นต้นลดลง

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    หรือสอบถามราบละเอียดและลงทะเบียนได้ที่ Line; pat4310, หรือโทร 086-503-5023
              หุ้นที่กำไรโตในไตรมาศ 4 แยกตามอุตสาหกรรม   
    หุ้นที่กำไรโตในไตรมาศ 4 แยกตามอุตสาหกรรมสรุปเป็นรายงานตามภาพเลยครับผม

    กลุ่มอสังหากำไรไตรมมาศที่แล้วโตหลายบริษัทเดาว่ามีโอนเยอะ รองลงมาเป็นกลุ่มบริการโตมากๆในหลายๆ sector เลย

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    สัมมนาวิเคราะห์หุ้นด้วยปัจจัยพื้นฐาน ดูรายละเอียดและตารางอบรมได้ที่http://www.investidea.in.th/p/value-investor.html
    หรือสอบถามราบละเอียดและลงทะเบียนได้ที่ Line; pat4310, หรือโทร 086-503-5023
              ค่า PE Ratio ของตลาดหลักทรัพย์คำนวณอย่างไร   

    ค่า PE Ratio เป็นอัตราส่วนที่ใช้วัดมูลค่าที่คนนิยมกัน ปัญหาของหลายคนที่ลองคำนวณเองมักเจอปัญหาคือ คำนวณยังไงก็ไม่ตรงกับที่ตลาดหลักทรัพย์คำนวณ มาดูกันครับว่าตลาดเขาคำนวณอย่างไร

    ในเว็บตลาดหลักทรัพย์สูตรการคำนวณคือ www.set.or.th/th/market/files/SET_Formula_Glossary.pdf

    ราคาปดของหุนสามัญ X [(จํานวนหุ้นสามัญ + จํานวนหุ้นบุริมสิทธิ) – จํานวนหุ้นซื้อคืน]
    กําไรงวด 12 เดือนลาสุด

    ตัวเศษ ราคา

    ราคาปิดของหุ้นสามัญ X [(จํานวนหุ้นสามัญ + จํานวนหุ้นบุริมสิทธิ) – จํานวนหุ้นซื้อคืน] ก็คือมูลค่าหลัก

    เท่าที่ลองคำนวณมาหลายๆแบบพบว่า ตัวเสษก็คือมูลค่าหลักทรัพย์ตามราคาตลาดนั่นเอง เพราะเดี๋ยวนี้บริษัทไม่ค่อยออกหุ้นบุริมสิทธ์กันเท่าไรนานๆเจอที

    ถ้าคำนวณแบบนี้ หลายคนที่ใช้ EPS มาคำนวณจะไม่ตรงเพราะ EPS แต่ละไตรมาศจำนวนหุ้นที่มาเป็นตัวหารจะเป็นจำนนหุ้นสามัญเฉลี่ยถ่วงน้ำหนัก ส่วนจำนวนหุ้นที่เอามาคำนวณ PE จะเป็นจำนวณหุ้นที่ซื้อขายในตลาด ณ วันนั้นไม่ใช่ค่าเฉลี่ย

    ตัวส่วน กำไร

    กำไรงวด 12 เดือนล่าสุด


    • กำไรสุทธิ ; กำไรในงบรวมที่รวมกำไรของบริษัทและบริษัทย่อย ก่อนแบ่งให้ส่วนได้เสียที่ไม่มีอำนาจควบคุม
    • กำไรส่วนได้เสียไม่มีอำนาจควบคุม ส่วนที่เราไม่ได้ถือ เมื่อมีกำไรก็ต้องแบ่งให้เขาไป
    • กำไรส่วนของผู้ถือหุ้นบริษัทใหญ่ กำไรที่มาถึงเราจริงๆ 
    กำไรที่ SET ใช้คำนวณ จะเป็น  กำไรส่วนของผู้ถือหุ้นบริษัทใหญ่ 

    ย้อนหลัง 12 เดือน ก็คือ 4 ไตรมาศนั่นเอง การคำนวณก็เอา กำไร 4 ไตรมาศย้อนหลังมาบวกกัน


    ดังนั้นการตีความจึงต้องมองว่า ที่ระดับราคาปัจจุบัน เราจ่ายเงินซื้อเป็นกี่เท่าของกำไรของผู้ถือหุ้นบริษัทใหญ่ ยิ่งน้อยยิ่งดี

    ค่า PE คำนวณไม่ยายเลยครับผม

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    สัมมนาวิเคราะห์หุ้นด้วยปัจจัยพื้นฐาน ดูรายละเอียดและตารางอบรมได้ที่http://www.investidea.in.th/p/value-investor.html
    หรือสอบถามราบละเอียดและลงทะเบียนได้ที่ Line; pat4310, หรือโทร 086-503-5023
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              Cómo instalar contenido personalizado | Sims 3   

    Instalar descargas en Los Sims 3

    En Los Sims 3 es un poco más pesado instalar descargas pero no es imposible. Hay varias formas de hacerlo dependiendo del tipo de archivo hayamos descargado o obtenido una vez descomprimido.

    Archivos Sims3pack:

    Si es un archivo sims3pack, haciendo doble clic en él se abrirá el lanzador de Los Sims 3 y se instalará automáticamente en el juego(PERO PUEDE SER QUE TE PIDA UNA ACTUALIZACION PARA USAR EL ARCHIVO). Desde el lanzador podes ver qué contenido has instalado o cual tienes copiado al ordenador pero sin instalar. También puedes activar y desactivar determinadas descargas, borrarlas, y muchas más cosas.

    Archivos Sim:
    Si se trata de un archivo .sim, hay que copiarlo en Mis Documentos\Electronic Arts\Los Sims 3\SavedSims. Encontrarás al sim indicado dentro del cajón de Sims prefabricados en la pantalla “Crea un Sim” del juego. Hay algunos archivos como pelos, ojos, ect, que pueden llegar a venir en un archivo .sims3pack .

    Archivos Packages:

    Si se trata de un archivo .packgage, hay dos métodos de hacerlo: manualmente o con ayuda de un programa llamado TS3 Install Helper Monkey, que hace la misma tarea, pero automáticamente.

    Instalación manual 

    Primero de todo necesitarás un archivo llamado Resource.cfg. Es un archivo que le indica al juego donde se encuentran las descargas y que es necesario que tengas siempre copiado en: C:\Archivos de Programa\Electronic Arts\Los Sims 3 (o la carpeta donde instalaste el juego, recuerda que no estamos hablando de la carpeta que se encuentra en Mis Documentos, sino donde se instaló el juego), si usas Windows.  Si usas Mac debes de copiarlo a este directorio: Los Sims 3.app > Contents > Resources > transgaming > c_drive > Program Files > Electronic Arts > The Sims 3. El archivo lo puedes descargar aca y simplemente copiarlo al lugar que hemos indicado.
    Una vez hecho esto debes crear en el mismo directorio donde hemos copiado el archivo, una carpeta llamada Mods y dentro de ella otra llamada Packgages. Allí es donde debes de copiar los archivos package para que el juego los detecte y puedas jugar con ellos. Si quieres, también puedes crear hasta cuatro nieveles de subcarpetas dentro para tener ordenadas las descargas según sea cabellos, objetos, prendas de vestir, etc. Aunque también puedes tenerlas todas en la misma.

    Ahora arranca el juego y ya podrás ver y usar el contenido que deseabas. Si algún día quieres eliminar alguna de ellas tan sólo tienes que borrarla de la carpeta Packages. Ten en cuenta que las descargas que instales de esta manera no aparecerán en la lista del lanzador de Los Sims 3, pero sí que podrás verlas y usar en el juego.
    Instalación automática mediante TS3 Install Helper Monkey
    La forma más rápida y cómoda para instalar las descargas ahorrándonos todo este proceso de arriba es usando un programa llamado TS3 Install Helper Monkey creado por Delphy, que en realidad hace lo mismo que hemos explicado arriba, pero de forma automática. Descárgalo desde aquí e instálalo asegurandote que no tienes el juego en marcha. Él directamente creará el archivo Resource.cfg y las correspondientes carpetas. Una vez instalado en nuestro ordenador, para añadir descargas en formato packgage al juego deberemos hacer clic con el botón derecho del ratón sobre el archivo y nos aparecerá un menú con diversas opciones. Dependiendo de cual escojamos la descarga se instalará en una de las subcarpetas que el programa creó automáticamente para tener un mejor orden, aunque en cualquiera de ellas nos vale, no hace falta seguir la norma (aunque es recomendable).

              New Technologies Help Manufacturers Get the Most Out of Robots   
              Advances in End-of-Arm Tooling for Robots   
              Michael Moore v. Wolf Blitzer   
    I used to think Michael Moore was a bit nuts. I don’t anymore, as he has been proved right time and again. I’m glad that he demanded CNN apologize for it’s poor reporting, both on the war and on the healthcare system. Thanks, Michael!
              What's New With Assembly Robots   
              New Technologies for Robotic Dispensing and Soldering   
              Comment on Priesthood in the New Testament Era Church, 5. by WVS   
    Yes. On both counts I think. Apostle is a tricky word, laden with a lot of baggage. And thanks for mentioning Paul and Barnabas. We put a lot of weight on a continuing Twelve but it's not at all clear what the early church was up to there.
              Bothered By Insomnia Lonely Wife Went To The Guest Room To Play Dirty Games With Husbands Brother   
    Watch Bothered By Insomnia Lonely Wife Went To The Guest Room To Play Dirty Games With Husbands Brother at Sex2016.net - best free sex video tube updated daily with new porn videos!
              Sztuczne mięśnie przyszłością robotyki?   
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              Tomatan: robot podający pomidory   
    W dziedzinie robotyki Japończycy mają spore doświadczenie. Nawet jeśli budowane przez nich roboty są czasem, delikatnie mówiąc, dziwne. A najnowszym robotem z całej serii tych ostatnich jest robot podający pomidory. Nie jest to jednak byle jaki robot podający pomidory, to … Czytaj dalej
              Premier Japonii zapowiada organizację Olimpiady dla robotów   
    Letnie Igrzyska Olimpijskie w 2020 roku odbędą się w Tokio. Każdy fan sportu wie o tym już od września ubiegłego roku. Premier Japonii zapowiedział jednak niespodziankę – w tym samym roku chciałby zorganizować Olimpiadę dla robotów. Premier Japonii, Shinzo Abe, … Czytaj dalej
              Pepper: android do towarzystwa ma w przyszłym roku trafić do naszych domów   
    Co można kupić za 6 tysięcy złotych? Na przykład metr kwadratowy mieszkania, prawie 1100 litrów benzyny, a od lutego przyszłego roku osobistego androida o nazwie Pepper. Pepper to robot, którego zaprojektowano w taki sposób, by towarzyszył ludziom w codziennym życiu. … Czytaj dalej
              Why Kerry Lost   

    BOSTON—My take on the election: Vision without details beats details without vision. President Bush put forward a powerful and compelling philosophy of what the government should do at home and abroad: Expand liberty. You can disagree with Bush's implementation of that vision, but objecting to it as a matter of principle isn't a political winner. John Kerry, on the other hand, campaigned as a technocrat, a man who would be better at "managing" the war and the economy. But for voters faced with a mediocre economy rather than a miserable one, and with a difficult war that's hopefully not a disastrous one, that message—packaged as "change"—wasn't compelling enough to persuade them to vote for Kerry.

    Without reliable exit-poll data, it's hard to know exactly which voters and issues decided the election, but my guess is that the Democrats will ultimately conclude that they did what they thought was necessary on the ground to win the election. Karl Rove and the Republicans just did more. (On the exit-poll question: If the initial evening exit-poll result that 5 percent of the late deciders broke for Ralph Nader had turned out to be accurate, Nader would have received more votes from among the pool of late-breaking undecideds than he ended up receiving from the entire electorate.) The Democratic confidence during the early afternoon and evening was based on more than faulty poll data. The Kerry campaign was confident that high turnout from the party base would swing the election their way.

    But this election wasn't a swing, or a pendulum. There was no fairly evenly divided group in the middle of the electorate that ultimately broke for one side and made the difference. The 2004 campaign was not a tug of war between two sides trying to yank the center toward them. Instead, it was a battle over an electorate perched on a seesaw. Each campaign furiously tried to find new voters to add so that it could outweigh the other side. Both sides performed capably: Kerry received more votes than Al Gore did four years ago, and he even received more votes than the previous all-time leader, Ronald Reagan in 1984. President Bush just did even better.

    Rove's gamble that he could find more Bush supporters from among nonvoting social conservatives than from the small number of undecideds in the usual voting public worked exactly as designed. The question for Democrats is whether Rove's formula will turn out to be a one-time trick tied to Bush's personal popularity and the emotional bond the nation formed with him after the trauma of 9/11, or whether the Democratic Party has been relegated to permanent, if competitive, minority status. Are the Democrats once again a regional party, the new Eisenhower Republicans of the Northeast? For seven consecutive presidential elections, the Democratic candidate has failed to garner 50 percent of the vote. Not since Jimmy Carter in 1976 has a Democrat won a majority, and even Watergate could get Carter only 50.1 percent.

    The silver lining for the minority party is that the Democrats may have a slight edge in the Electoral College. Although he lost the popular vote by more than 3.5 million (a landslide in a 50-50 nation), Kerry lost the presidency by a much smaller amount: fewer than 140,000 votes in Ohio. The 2008 battleground will likely be even smaller than 2004's: Only 19 states in this election had a vote margin that within single digits. In 2000's divided America, Bush and Gore finished within 5 points of each other in 22 states. This time, Bush and Kerry came within sniffing distance of each other in half as many, 11. Despite President Bush's remarkably successful campaign, and despite the fact that he became the first president to win a majority of the vote since his father did the same in 1988, in his second term George W. Bush will preside over a country that is even more divided than it was during his first.

              Lockhart Ranks the States   

    BOSTON—Just after 10 p.m., Joe Lockhart updated the press at the Fairmont Copley Plaza hotel on the Kerry campaign's view of the unfolding election. He appeared to list states in descending order, as related to the campaign's confidence that Kerry would win them:

    "Let me talk a little bit about where we think things are. We are in, I think, a remarkably strong position as we stand here tonight. We think—Let me try to do this in some semblance of order. The first state that will flip, we believe, is New Hampshire. We've had a very aggressive campaign out there, a very aggressive ground game, and we expect to win that state.

    "Ohio was a state that stayed close throughout the campaign, but we are very bullish based on the turnout in the state. We had very positive turnout within, as I was saying earlier, the Democratic precincts particularly in African-American communities. We had our precincts, the Democratic precincts, performing at 115 percent of our expectations, and we had the Republican precincts reporting at 94.3 percent of expectations. …  We had African-American precincts reporting in very high, at about 115 percent of what we expected, and Hispanic precincts were reporting at 150 percent of what we expected.

    "I think if you look at the vote that's coming in, what you have to keep in mind is there's a series of Democratic counties that we only have very limited reporting in now. I give you those counties and with that [the] margin that Gore had in 2000: Cuyahoga, obviously Cleveland, strong Democratic area, Gore won by 160,000; Lucas County, Toledo area, Gore won by 35,000; Montgomery County, the Dayton area, Gore won by 5,000; Summit, which is Warren, which is where we had the rally over the weekend, Gore won by 25,000, and Mahoney County, which Gore won by 30,000. If you look at the numbers now, these are very underreported, and these are the ones that are coming in late.

    "On Florida, we think we, as I said earlier today, we started with a very strong advantage based on the early voting, almost 30 percent of the state voted before today. And we've had absolutely outstanding turnout in the southern part of the state, in Miami-Dade, Broward, and West Palm. If you look at 2000, Gore won Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach by 350,000, and we think we're going to do better than that. We have very limited reporting in those counties in Florida now. But we think that, based on the limited information, we have a 42,000-vote lead in Palm Beach County, with less than half the vote in. Broward County, we have a more than 200,000-vote lead, with still more than a quarter of the vote left to be counted, with still over a quarter left to be counted.

    "I think in both of these states, Ohio and Florida, the turnout, the incredible turnout, an unprecedented turnout, I think you've seen in the long lines, in the fact that they're still voting. We have reports from Columbus, Ohio, of a polling place that will be open until midnight based on the line when the polls closed. There's still voting going on in Florida. So we feel very strongly about both of these states as states that will come into our column once the votes are counted.

    "I'll do two areas before we get to questions. The first is the Upper Midwest. We feel very strongly about, we'll have a comfortable win in Minnesota. Wisconsin, based on the turnout that we've looked at and analyzed over this afternoon and this evening, we think we'll also hold. I think, Iowa, with a late surge in the last four or five days, and with a very aggressive ground game, we think we'll also be able to hold the state of Iowa.

    "In the Southwest, New Mexico and Nevada, one red state, one blue state, we feel very strongly that we've done well there, we've done enough and that when the votes are counted there we'll win those states. So, overall we feel like we're in a strong position."

    Q: What's surprised you tonight?

    "We expected a very large turnout. I don't know that we expected this, something this large. And I think we've always believed that turnout, and the size of it as it grew over by the millions and maybe even 10 million more than what we saw in 2000, that would advantage us, and I think that's what we're seeing.

    "You know, I think the turnout in a number of Democratic communities has been strong. I think if you look at the data that's out now, probably the biggest surprise is how the 18- to 25-year-olds, how many of them came out, and think how strongly they've come out for Kerry. I think if you're looking for one thing to put your finger on right now that's making a difference in this race after many cycles of there being hype about getting young people re-engaged and getting involved in voting again, this is the year that it actually happened."

              Halftime Score   

    BOSTON—A little after 4:30 p.m., Joe Lockhart stood at a podium at the traveling press filing center at the Fairmont Copley Plaza hotel and briefed the media on the campaign's view of Election Day so far. Here's a partial transcript. The questions are paraphrases, but Lockhart's quotes are verbatim.

    "The rules state if you are in line when the polls close, you are allowed to vote. … They just need to get there by the time of the poll closing. We will be providing coffee and doughnuts for those who have to wait in line as a way to ease their pain, I am told. I believe this is true, that the campaign has authorized in some places in Ohio Port-a-Potties to make sure that people don't leave because they have to go to the bathroom. They tell me that's true."

    "In these battleground states, we have targeted 60 precincts per state: 20 that polled very well for then-Gov. Bush, in 2000, 20 that were mixed, 20 that voted heavily for Gore. Let me share a few things from around the country that we've drawn from those precincts. So far today, our base precincts are running ahead of both Republican base precincts and ahead of Al Gore's performance in every battleground state, with the exception of New Mexico, where we are even, and Arkansas, where we're slightly behind.

    "So when you look at the whole, 12 or 13, whatever we settled on battleground states, we believe in our key precincts, as a measure of turnout, that we're doing well.

    "In Florida, Democratic precincts continue to outperform Republican precincts, and African-American and Hispanic turnout is still running higher than expected. We've seen anecdotal evidence, particularly in some of the Hispanic voting areas, of very heavy turnout. We have a turnout advantage in Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County.

    "In Ohio, Democratic precincts again are outperforming the Republican Bush precincts by about 8 percent. Cuyahoga County turnout advantage in precincts carried by Gore is 7.1 percent compared to the precincts carried by Bush in 2000. Franklin County, we're seeing a turnout advantage, and Hamilton County, which is Cincinnati, a turnout advantage in Gore precincts by again, about 6 and a half percent.

    "Wisconsin, Democratic precincts are outperforming Bush precincts by about 1.9 percent; that holds for Dane County, which is the Madison area, and Milwaukee County, and even the heavily Republican county in the Milwaukee suburbs, where our turnout advantage is small, but it is an advantage.

    "A couple other: Colorado Democratic precincts are outperforming Bush precincts by about 4.6 percent; Iowa Democratic precincts are outperforming the Bush precincts by about 10 percent. So, we think that the turnout numbers have been encouraging, but we still believe that we have a lot of work to do."

    Q: Explain what those numbers mean.

    "That's not exit polling. That's turnout. Again, as I said, if you look at key precincts around the state, which is how we judge turnout, we have heavily Democratic districts, and then you've got heavily Republican precincts. And the numbers that I was using were all comparative, comparing the Democratic precincts to the Republican. It doesn't tell you everything, but I think it tells you a lot. If County X, which always votes Democratic, 100 people show up, and County Y, which always votes Republican, 93 people show up, at the end of the day, you have some sense that things are going well for you. And that's good news. Again, it doesn't tell you who's won or lost, but it does give a sense that our efforts at sort of turning out the voters are having some success."

    Q: Knowing what you know now, how confident are you that there will be a winner declared tonight?

    "I don't know that we know anything more about that … than we did coming into the day. There's two pieces of information, one is that we feel good about where we were in the battleground states. We have said that consistently over the last week. We feel good so far about the turnout. But those things aren't enough. Everybody knows a campaign who thought the turnout looked good in the morning and relaxed in the afternoon and came out unsuccessfully."

    Q: How are you redeploying your resources?

    I'll give you one example. Gen. Wesley Clark was in New Mexico for us today, and based on some information that we gathered, in both New Mexico and Nevada, we've asked him, and he's on his way now, to do some work in Nevada. So, that's one example, I think, of a body being moved. But this is mostly satellite interviews, phone calls, and movement within a state

    "Are the speeches done? If I answered yes, I wouldn't be honest. You know how we work; they'll be done just before they're due."

    Q: Have you seen any exit polls? What do you think of them?

    "Well, the only thing that I've seen in print is on online sources that I find highly unreliable."

    Q: Daily Kos?

    "I didn't say which ones I saw."

    We'll assume he means Drudge.

              The Other Incumbent Rule   

    LA CROSSE, Wis.—The past six years have not been kind to political rules of thumb. During the primary season, a candidate who leads in both the polls and in fund raising on Jan. 1 is supposed to be guaranteed the nomination. Ask Howard Dean about that one. In the general election, the national popular vote is supposed to coincide with the vote in the Electoral College. Ask Al Gore how that went. And during midterm congressional elections, the president's party is supposed to lose seats in the House. About that one, ask Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.

    The next political axiom to be tested will be polling's "incumbent rule," which dictates that undecided voters break overwhelmingly for the challenger on Election Day. (Another way to put it is that an incumbent president's polling number typically equals or exceeds the percentage share of the vote he'll receive.) Because most final state polls show President Bush polling below 50 percent in nearly every swing state, history is on John Kerry's side Tuesday. But recent elections have shown that past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    What's more, if the election turns out to be close, there's another way incumbency could be the determining factor in the election, as Randy Broz, a Democratic strategist and fund-raiser for House candidates, pointed out to me last week. This rule, call it the "other incumbent rule," favors President Bush. In the unlikely scenario of "another Florida"—litigation or just a long recount in a decisive state—the president, by virtue of his incumbency, will hold a decisive public-relations advantage. During the 2000 recount, Republicans cried that Al Gore was trying to "steal the election" from Bush based on nothing more than the fact that the TV networks had declared Bush the winner on Election Night. Had Bush been a sitting president, the outcry would have been more persuasive. Trying to oust a wartime incumbent through litigation would be nearly impossible.

    Kerry will need to win clearly and convincingly at the ballot box in order to unseat Bush, and for what it's worth, most reporters seem to think that he's going to do it. The Kerry campaign staff is confident, and it appears to be genuine, rather than bluster. "I never told anyone in 2000 that Al Gore was going to win by 6 points," Bob Shrum—taking a shot at Karl Rove's record in election forecasting—told reporters on the campaign plane. For the past week or two, the campaign has spoken confidently of winning "big states"—presumably Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania—that would assure Kerry the presidency.

    By Monday evening, reporters from news organizations that have colleagues traveling with Bush started saying that the Bush folks have clammed up, or that they seem unusually tight. Kerry's final events had a giddy air. The traveling press credentials for the night's last "major rally" in Cleveland featured a head shot of longtime Kerry spokesman David Wade, who gladly autographed a few. To the New York Daily News reporter, he wrote, "At least you're not the Post." And to the New York Post, he tweaked the paper's veep "scoop" by writing, "Go Kerry-Gephardt!" I heard rumors of, but did not witness, a dancing Mike McCurry. I even read it as a sign of confidence that traveling press secretary Allison Dobson was eager to join a proposed Electoral College betting pool. Teresa Heinz Kerry's slightly unusual political talk in Cleveland—about an America that is "young" and "imperfect" but "growing," and how Kerry knows America's "thorny parts" as well its idealism—came across as charming rather than ludicrous.

    In Toledo, at a midnight rally that Kerry dubbed "the first stop of Election Day," Gen. Tony McPeak criticized the Bush administration for wrapping itself in the flag to hide its "incompetence." "You wanna shoot 'em, you gotta put a hole in the flag," McPeak said. "We got a guy in John Kerry who stands in front the flag. He says, you gonna hurt that flag, you're gonna have to run through me."

    When Kerry arrived here in La Crosse for a photo op at 1:25 a.m. Central time, a man in the crowd held aloft a scrawled sign reading, "Tomorrow Is Here, President Kerry." Kerry leapt into the crowd of a couple hundred people, clutching and grabbing and high-fiving hands. He seemed to realize that this was it, his last full day as a presidential campaigner. Just a couple weeks ago in Des Moines during a joint appearance with John Edwards, Kerry had walked down a catwalk next to his running mate, who was reaching down into the crowd enthusiastically with both hands. Kerry, by comparison, touched a voter's hand only occasionally, and only at the end of the walk did he extend both arms to clasp hands with anyone. This time, Kerry eagerly embraced the throng for 20 minutes, perhaps not ready for this day to end.

    Predictions are dangerous, but I'll make one: Tuesday night, the incumbent rule holds, and on Jan. 20, we'll have a new incumbent.

              Fitting a Dress Shirt   
    Dress shirts are necessities in a modern man's wardrobe, as they are one of the most common types of clothing men wear both for casual and formal attire. And you can wear them with or without the overcoat. In this case a perfectly fitted dress shirt is the way to go. It doesn't necessarily have to be branded or expensive, though high quality fabric is highly preferred. But no matter what brand you're wearing and regardless of how expensive the price tag is, nothing else would be relevant if the shirt is a wrong fit. Either if it's too small or too big for your size, it will never look good on you.
              The Bush Victory Party   

    George W. Bush's last victory party, which took place four years ago in Austin, Texas, never quite got underway. There was some annoying business about a withdrawn concession phone call and a steady downpour of rain. This year's party, held inside the Ronald Reagan Building in Washington, D.C., was in one respect an improvement. There was no rain.

    The evening began in the Reagan Building's giant, sloping atrium. The GOP herded its youngish volunteers into a mosh pit, jammed between the stage and the TV cameras. Vodka tonics were consumed, and the twentysomethings seemed poised for giddy celebration. Just after 12:30 a.m., Fox News awarded Ohio to Bush, bringing the president's electoral tally, by the network's count, to 266. Four more years! Alaska followed 20 minutes later, nudging Bush to 269. Four more years! At that point, a portly man wearing a blue suit and pin-striped shirt removed his "W Is Still President" lapel pin, held it aloft like a cigarette lighter, and began to lurch toward the stage.

    But as soon as the crowd began to rock, Bush's glorious night ground to a halt. More than three hours passed without Fox awarding Bush a single electoral vote. Some of the other networks refused to give him Ohio. It wasn't that the remaining states were breaking for Kerry; they simply weren't breaking at all. The country band playing at the victory celebration exhausted its playlist and began glancing up nervously at the TV monitors. A producer with a ponytail and "W" hat waddled onstage and told them to keep playing. Reporters in the press row reached for their cell phones: The news from Boston was that John Edwards would take the stage and extend the election.

    Ed Gillespie, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, dashed to the podium and, in a speech that lasted for the exact duration of Edwards', declared that Kerry couldn't possibly unearth 100,000 more votes in Ohio. The crowd whooped, but malaise was setting in. Wouldn't the president just get over here and declare victory already? Better yet, wouldn't Kerry just give up?

    The heavy eyes were a marked shift from the evening's start, which was brimming with cautious optimism. As Bush swept the early states, Jeremy Bouma, a member of something called the Center for Christian Statesmanship, told me the expected surge in Democratic turnout would be offset by new evangelical voters. "My prayer going into this was that the evangelical vote was the X Factor," he said. Rosario Marin, a former U.S. treasurer, thought that Bush had succeeded in increasing his support among Hispanic voters. She was telling me why Latinos did not, in fact, oppose to the Iraq war when Gillespie announced that ABC had called Florida for Bush.

    Aaaaaaaaah! she screamed, into my right ear."Oh, sorry." Then: Aaaaaaaaaah! "Oh, sorry." Aaaaaaaaaaaah! I told her she should go ahead and scream. After she caught her breath, Marin said: "I'm so happy. I'm so excited. My heart is pumping. I've got to call my husband." And then she was gone.

    Bush never appeared at his 2000 victory party. Around 3 a.m. Wednesday, a question arose as to whether, in fact, he would appear at this one. CNN's John King reported that Bush had stormed into Karl Rove's office and asked the guru to let him declare victory. The reporters in the press room that weren't asleep let out a whoop. King later reported that Rove told the networks that if they would just call New Mexico for Bush, the president would make his way to the Reagan Building. The message was clear: I know you're tired. So give me the damn state.

    At 5:05 a.m., an end—sort of. CNN reported that Bush wouldn't appear in person Wednesday morning; Andy Card, his chief of staff, would speak in his place. Card arrived in a room with a few dozen listless Republicans and said nothing memorable. Mario H. Lopez, one of the listless, declared, "I don't know how I cannot describe this night as historic." Then he glanced at someone's watch and said, "I think we're gonna get some breakfast and then get ready to go to work."  ... 3:17 a.m.

    Party Monster: Welcome to George W. Bush's "victory" party in Washington, D.C. Sorta. Us news reporters have been herded into a giant white tent, yards away from the actual party, and contact with revelers looks unlikely. This is what the mob outside Studio 54 must have looked like, if only you upped the dweeb factor.

    As the Washington Post's "Reliable Source" column notedthis morning: "Reporters wishing to cover the president's election night party will have to pay $300 for the privilege of a 3-by-2-foot work space and a padded seat in a tent nearby to watch the proceedings on television. … Small groups of media will be escorted into the atrium of the Ronald Reagan Building to look around—but they won't be allowed to talk to participants." For a White House that hates the press, handcuffing reporters on Victory Night seems appropriate.

    Last-minute indicators of victory: The handful of people I saw shuffling out of the White House grounds looked grim. Someone who identified himself as a Homeland Security apparatchik looked ebullient. On Fox News, Bill Kristol and Mort Kondracke are wearing prepared smiles. ... 4:05 p.m.

    Recriminations Watch—Hispanic-Vote Edition: In the category of what my friend Noam Scheiber calls "possibly meaningless anecdotal evidence," my relatives in Northern New Mexico report an inordinate number of Bush signs in the poor Hispanic colonias—communities that figured to go overwhelmingly to Kerry. The same relatives report that Hispanic men profess to have a cultural affinity with Bush, who they see as a tough, macho sort of guy. Again, meaningless, but it underscores a point: That's about the only thing Bush has going for him with the Hispanic community. The Bushies, who heralded their leader's minority-outreach miracles as Texas governor, have done a shoddy job of courting Hispanics since entering the White House.

    A few months back, Antonio Gonzalez of the William C. Velasquez Institute told me that Kerry staffers had whiffed at the Democratic Convention. They featured too few Hispanic speakers; and the preoccupation with Iraq drew attention away from domestic issues affecting the poor. All Karl Rove had to do, Gonzalez said, was goad his keynote speakers into mumbling a few "qué pasas" and the Hispanic vote might tilt slightly to Bush. Well, it didn't happen and it hasn't happened. Most surveys show Bush polling around 30 percent to 35 percent of the Hispanic vote, about what he did in 2000. Even GOP apparatchiks, wishing for miracles, don't put Bush much above 40 percent.

    If Bush loses tight races in Florida and New Mexico (and, God forbid, Nevada and Colorado), an early recrimination theory might be that Bush spent too little time chasing Hispanic voters. Then again, perhaps he didn't have a chance. The sour economy disproportionately affects Hispanic and black communities; so does the Iraq War, which draws foot soldiers from the poorest segments of the population. Though both candidates ran Spanish-language ads in the Southwest, the campaigns seemed, at times, to forget about Hispanic voters entirely. Remember the fixation on the gringo Spanish spoken (haltingly) by Al Gore and Bush in 2000? Did Bush and Kerry ignore Hispanic voters, or has the media processed them as stable members of the electorate?

    Even if Bush should lose, the GOP would be wise to thank him for ratcheting up their Hispanic numbers to Ronald Reagan levels—and up from depths plumbed by the Bob Dole and George H.W. Bush campaigns. But for a man who wonEl Paso County in his 1998 gubernatorial race, 35 percent doesn't seem like much of a miracle. ... 1:11 p.m.

    Tom DeLay's Poetic Justice: Tom DeLay's push to rejigger Texas' congressional districts, an effort that caused such a kerfuffle last year, has faded under the onslaught of Swift Boat Veterans, the Osama tape, and Al Qaqaa. But DeLay's gambit has been no less effective. Five Texas Democrats face re-election Tuesday in GOP-friendly districts, and even the most optimistic Dems predict that only one or two of them (probably Martin Frost or Chet Edwards) can survive. There's a better-than-even shot that allfive Democrats will lose, giving the House GOP majority an enormous boost.

    But it's not all sad news. With an influx of new Republicans comes an infusion of unwitting comic genius. Most of this can be seen in the personage of Ted Poe. Poe, a former Houston felony court judge, kicked off his national political career in August by boldly proclaiming, "Now is not the time to be a French Republican."

    On the bench in Houston, Poe styled himself as a remorseless, Wild West, hangin' judge in the tradition of Roy Bean. His brainchild was something he called "Poetic Justice." With "Poetic Justice," Poe sentenced criminals to public humiliations to teach them a lesson. Shoplifters who found themselves in front of Poe, for instance, had to stand outside the stores they pinched from carrying signs identifying themselves as criminals.

    When a man robbed legendary Lone Ranger star Clayton Moore, Poe made the perp shovel manure 20 hours a month at the Houston police department's horse pens. The sentence was to last for 10 years.

    The Club for Growth's Stephen Moore reports that Poe made convicted car thieves hand over their own cars to their victims. Convicted murderers were forced to visit their victims' grave sites; others felons had to hang their victims' pictures in their cells and, upon release, carry them in their wallets. According to the Houston Press, Poe slapped one homicidal drunken driver with the following the rap:

    … boot camp; erecting and maintaining a cross and Star of David at the accident site; carrying pictures of the victims in his wallet for ten years; observing the autopsy of a drunk-driving victim; placing flowers on the graves of the two victims on their birthdays for the next ten years; and carrying a sign outside a bar that reads, "I killed two people while driving drunk."

    This article describes the ambiance of Poe's Houston office: "a poster of Alcatraz, a painting of a scene from the battle of Gettysburg and a sign proclaiming, 'I really don't care how you did it up north.' "

    As the Houston Chronicle reports, victims' relatives have charged that Poe would often fail to follow through on the harsh sentences—a revelation which comes as something of a relief. Slate eagerly awaits the punishments Poe metes out on congressional Democrats. ... 11:12 a.m.

    A Snowball's Chance: If the election drifts into Mountain Time Tuesday, will John Kerry regret stiffing New Mexico? That's one theory being floated on Joe Monahan's superb New Mexico political blog tonight. George W. Bush visited the state Monday, Dick Cheney over the weekend. So, New Mexicans will wake up Tuesday to read triumphant Bush headlines like this and this, while they'll see news pictures of Kerry overnighting in Wisconsin.

    Bill Richardson pulls all the puppet-strings in New Mexico, but there's mounting evidence that Kerry may be in trouble. The polls have looked limp. And there's a theory that Al Gore's slim margin in 2000—366 votes, all found days after the election—may be attributable to one thing: snow.

    On Election Day 2000, a freak snowstorm blanketed "Little Texas," the swath of southeastern New Mexico known for its cultural and political kinship with its neighbor. Conservative voters in three counties stayed home in droves. With Gore running strong in northern New Mexico and narrowly winning Albuquerque, the snowed-in voters may have cost Bush the state.

    Tuesday's weather report: This site says "rain and snow showers will linger" near the region. Kerry may need every flake and drop.  … 12:01 a.m.

    Monday, Nov. 1 2004

    The ESPN Primary: "Mr. President, I am wondering how you feel about taxpayers having to have a financial burden placed on them for building new stadiums and new facilities for existing teams?" So went The Candidates: Election 2004,ESPN's special last night that valiantly tried to make Tuesday's contest into a referendum on professional sports. Jim Gray, the thinking man's Ahmad Rashad, the guy who hones his interview technique on coaches trying to sneak off the court before halftime ("So, uh, how do you prepare for the second half?"), landed interviews with both candidates. With its modus operandi inching ever closer to that of Sabado Gigante, it's groovy to see ESPN put on its serious face once in a while—for the shtick to give way to grave pronouncements about THE WORLD BEYOND SPORTS. Except that Gray never acknowledged that such a thing existed.

    In response to a question about ticket prices, Bush replied, "I was always concerned when I was with the Rangers that our ticket prices would become so high that the family would be priced out of baseball." Perhaps this is why Bush helped build the Ballpark at Arlington, one of the most expensive venues in baseball and one of its most soulless. For his part, Kerry repeated his I-stand-with-the-working-man pabulum, suggesting that fathers were looting their children's college funds to sit at club level.

    Asked to name his favorite athlete, Kerry, of course, straddled, ticking off a fair slice of the Boston Bruins' first line and, for swing-state mojo, a handful of Detroit Red Wings. Bush got another chance to coo about his clutch performance during the 2001 World Series. And that's about as deep as our man Gray got. There are some reasonably interesting questions to ask about sports, such as why it remains one of the viciously anti-gay segments of public life, a black mark that is ignored when it isn't celebrated.

    But why get huffy when you can ask both candidates, as Gray did, what should be done about Pete Rose, who after his selfless act of contrition last winter finds himself no closer to baseball's Hall of Fame? This is the kind of spitball that will get you hooted off most respectable sports radio shows, but the candidates tried their level best. Bush said Rose had never really apologized to baseball. Kerry straddled, then agreed. You could see the nervous flicker in both men's eyes—Bush: Christian values!; Kerry: Cincinnati values!—as they tried outflank one another on Charlie Hustle's quagmire.  ... 10:02 p.m.

              The GOP's 'Heidi Game'   

    ORLANDO—The South Florida Sun-Sentinel buried this nugget Sunday in a story about the late delivery of 2,500 absentee ballots in Broward County: WPLG-Channel 10, an ABC affiliate in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area, aired a half-hour chunk of Stolen Honor, the 43-minute anti-Kerry documentary, on Saturday. The time was purchased by Newton Media, a Virginia-based media placement company that says it was founded "on biblical principles" and that includes a number of "media ministries" among its clients.

    Angry callers "flooded the customer service phone lines" at the station for airing the program, the Sun-Sentinel reported. A liberal backlash? No, just sports fans upset that the Michigan-Michigan State football game, "tied, 37-37, and about to go into overtime," was pre-empted. Doesn't anyone at Newton Media know the story of the "Heidi game"? Could this be the Republicans' "Lambert Field moment"?

    Will the election really be close? On the eve of the Iowa caucuses, journalists and campaign staffers sat in the bar at the Hotel Fort Des Moines and talked about what an exciting, unpredictable, four-way race for the Democratic nomination was about to unfold. The polls were tied. No one professed to have any idea what was about to happen. The unknown factor was an influx of new caucus participants. Many experts predicted that we would be up all night before we could discern the winner. But John Kerry was pronounced the decisive winner as soon as the caucuses ended. (Likewise, few expected a nail-biter in the 2000 general election.)

    Florida3: If Kerry loses in Florida and the rest of the map goes as expected (meaning no upsets in Arkansas, New Jersey, or elsewhere), he'll need to carry Hawaii, Michigan, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, and two of the "Little Three": Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, to get to 270 electoral votes. With Florida, Kerry coasts to victory. Without Florida, he pretty much needs to run the table to win.

    At least he's not traveling with Maurice Chevalier. Bruce Springsteen and John Kerry will appear together again on Monday. But is Springsteen the wrong symbol for a Democratic candidate? The Boss and his fan base, after all, are reminiscent of the caricature of limousine liberals: aging yuppies in BMWs who are either hopelessly trying to recapture their past glory or desperately trying to show that they're in touch with the working man. It's akin to Bush traveling with Hank Williams Jr. But in the unlikely event that the Springsteen does resonate politically, Kerry will owe another debt to his former campaign manager Jim Jordan, who chose "No Surrender" as Kerry's theme song. (Jordan also lobbied for Kerry to use his successful "Bring it on" mantra early in the primaries, but the idea was nixed by Bob Shrum.)

    For those scoring at home: Here's where the candidates and their wives will be on the last day of campaigning before Election Day. Both Bush and Kerry have abandoned their typically lightly scheduled campaign days for a last-day whirlwind:

    Kerry begins the day here in Orlando, then heads to Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio (twice), then back to Wisconsin. On Tuesday, he'll do a morning event in Wisconsin—"Because Wisconsin is a same-day registration state, we'll be doing a turnout event," Mike McCurry told reporters—then head home to Massachusetts.

    Edwards visits Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio, and Florida, then spends all day Tuesday in Florida before heading to Massachusetts for Kerry's Election Night rally.

    President Bush spends Monday in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa (twice), New Mexico, and Texas, while the Cheneys take the red-eye back from Hawaii and do events in Colorado, Nevada (twice), then head home to Wyoming.

    Teresa Heinz Kerry stays in her home state of Pennylvania, while Elizabeth Edwards travels to Wisconsin, Ohio (twice), and Iowa. Laura Bush starts the day with the president in Ohio, then she has separate events in Ohio and Michigan before joining up again with the president in Iowa.

    The best news of the weekend: The Packers-Redskins game could have ended in a tie. It didn't.

              The Vanishing Nonvoter   

    FORT LAUDERDALE—Republicans love to criticize Democrats for failing to use "dynamic scoring" when assessing the impact of tax cuts on budget revenues. But if President Bush loses the 2004 presidential election, it may be because Karl Rove failed to use dynamic scoring when assessing the impact of his political strategy on the electorate.

    In budgetary matters, dynamic scoring means including the effect that cutting taxes will have on economic growth when determining how a tax cut will affect federal revenues. A static analysis, on the other hand, would just decrease the government's inflows by the amount that taxes were cut (or increase revenues by the amount taxes were raised), without calculating the ways a change in tax policy can change people's economic decisions.

    For the 2004 election, Rove's static political analysis was that appealing to the 4 million evangelicals who didn't vote in 2000 would bring President Bush a decisive re-election victory. Bush's campaign—and his presidency—have appealed almost entirely to the base of the Republican Party. In a static world, that strategy makes sense: Consolidate the support you received last time, and then find new conservative voters who weren't motivated to turn out four years ago, whether because of the late-breaking news of Bush's DUI arrest or because they weren't convinced of Bush's conservative bona fides. But Rove may have missed the dynamic analysis: the effect that such a strategy would have on the rest of the nonvoting public.

    In most states, the Democratic voter-registration program has outpaced the Republican one. Here in Florida, that hasn't been the case, as the GOP has turned up more new registrants across the state than the Democrats. But evidence that Rove's unconventional strategy inflamed the Democratic base can be seen in the early-voting turnout, which seems to be favoring the Democrats. Friday's South Florida Sun-Sentinel featured this headline on the front page: "Early Vote Turnout Boosts Democrats." Calling the turnout in heavily Democratic Broward County a "bad sign for President Bush's chances to win the state," the Sun-Sentinel noted that "twice as many Democrats as Republicans had either voted at early voting sites or returned absentee ballots in the county." In Miami-Dade, another heavily Democratic county, Kerry stands to beat Bush by 90,000 votes if a Miami Herald poll conducted by John Zogby is accurate, Herald columnist Jim DeFede wrote on Thursday. Al Gore won the county by less than 40,000 votes.

    "By our count, John Kerry already has a significant lead with the people who have already voted in Florida," Tad Devine said in a conference call with reporters Saturday. The voters who are waiting in line for 2 1/2 hours to vote—almost exactly how long the line was Saturday at the downtown Fort Lauderdale public library—aren't doing that to register their support for "more of the same," he said. Interestingly, Devine sounded more confident about Kerry's chances in Florida than in Ohio, a state in which most people think Kerry has a slight edge. He said that Kerry had a "small but important advantage" in Florida (as well as Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania) but only that the race was "very close" with Kerry "positioned to win" in Ohio, putting that the Buckeye State in the same category as Bush-leaning (by most accounts) states Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico.

    It's possible that Rove and the Bush campaign have turned up a huge trove of conservative nonvoters who were registered to vote four years ago and who therefore aren't showing up in the numbers of new registered voters. Unless that's true, however, the early indications are that Rove's repudiation of centrist politics will backfire. The secret of Bill Clinton's campaigns and of George W. Bush's election in 2000 was the much-maligned politics of small differences: Find the smallest possible majority (well, of electoral votes, for both men) that gets you to the White House. In political science, something called the "median voter theorem" dictates that in a two-party system, both parties will rush to the center looking for that lone voter—the median voter—who has 50.1 percent of the public to the right (or left) of him. Win that person's vote, and you've won the election.

    Rove has tried to use the Bush campaign to disprove the politics of the median voter. It was as big a gamble as any of the big bets President Bush has placed over the past four years. It has the potential to pay off spectacularly. After all, everyone always talks about how there are as many people who don't vote in this country as people who do vote. Rove decided to try to get the president to excite those people. Whether Bush wins or loses, it looks like he succeeded.

              Do Cufflinks Make a Difference?   
    Never underestimate the importance of accessories, when you are putting together an outfit. Whether you are getting ready to go to work, have an important business meeting or are just popping out for a bite to eat the best looking outfits come accessorized. Cufflinks are now very popular accessories that can change the look of your outfit. Worn by both men and women cufflinks add the perfect touch to what you are wearing.
              Florida's Absent Ballots   

    WEST PALM BEACH, Fla.—Everyone knew that both parties would go on the attack during the final days of a close election, but we didn't think they would take it literally. In Sarasota on Tuesday, a 46-year-old man in a Cadillac decided to play chicken with former Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris, who is now running for re-election to Congress. Amazingly, given that she was a pedestrian standing with some of her supporters, rather than driving a car, Harris won. The Cadillac "swerved onto the sidewalk" at the last minute, according to the Associated Press. "I was exercising my political expression," the man, Barry Seltzer, told police. "I did not run them down. I scared them a little." Perhaps the Supreme Court will weigh in on this election after all, if only to decide whether motor-vehicle "flybys" are protected under the First Amendment.

    Not to be outdone, an 18-year-old high-school student and aspiring Marine in West Palm Beach ensured that the state's meltdown would be bipartisan. After his girlfriend—now ex-girlfriend—told him she was going to vote for John Kerry, Steven Soper allegedly "beat her and held her hostage with a screwdriver," according to the Palm Beach Post report, which is worth reading in full. In the city of Vero Beach, another Bush supporter, 52-year-old Michael Garone, is accused of pointing a gun at the head of a Kerry supporter. And they say Republicans are trying to suppress turnout.

    Because of the journalistic rule that three makes a trend, the local TV news after the World Series broadcast a story on "political rage." The conclusion from the reporter: "Bottom line, psychiatrists say: Vote, then calm down. Stop watching the 24-hour cable news." But the problem most Palm Beach County voters seem to be worrying about is a much more mundane one: Will our votes be counted?

    Because of the county's disastrous 2000 election, when elderly Jews accidentally voted for Pat Buchanan and when 19,000 "overvotes"—most of which were intended for Al Gore—were tossed because the confusing butterfly ballot led voters to think they should punch holes for both the president and the vice president, voters here are particularly knowledgeable about the ins and outs of voting systems and voting machines. Many voters are fearful of the new electronic touch-screen machines that will be used for this election, particularly because the machines lack a paper trail that could be used in a recount. As a result, a huge number of Palm Beach County voters have requested absentee ballots. Wednesday's Palm Beach Post reported that the county's Supervisor of Elections, Theresa LePore (yes, she's still around for one last election), said 128,000 absentee ballots had been mailed out through Monday. That's 17 percent of the more than 735,000 registered voters in the county, and it's 10,000 more absentee ballot requests so far than Miami-Dade County, which has 300,000 more voters. LePore told the paper her office expected to mail another 7,000 each day this week.

    The absentee ballots are paper-and-pencil ballots that will be read by optical scan machines, which are the most accurate voting machines available. They're also the only way for voters in the county to cast a physical, paper ballot that can be recounted. The problem was highlighted for area voters after a special election in January for State House District 91. The race was decided by 12 votes, which meant that Florida's automatic recount law kicked in. Except there was nothing to recount, despite 134 blank "undervotes" recorded by the machines. Perhaps voters intentionally didn't cast a ballot in the race, but without a physical ballot, there was no way to inspect the undervotes to be sure.

    The local Democratic Party has urged voters who are concerned about the machines' accuracy or who want a paper trail of their ballot to vote absentee. So has the state Republican Party, which earlier this year published a flyer in Miami that read, "Make sure your vote counts. Order your absentee ballot today."

    But now voters claim they haven't received their absentee ballots in the mail, even though the ballots must be returned by 7 p.m. on Election Day in order for them to be counted. Nothing like Broward County's 50,000 missing ballots has occurred, and LePore blamed the post office for the problem. She told the Palm Beach Post, "We take them to the post office and then it's out of my hands." Voters who don't receive their ballots can still vote at the polls, but at the early-voting sites, the lines have been long: The wait was at least an hour each time I stopped by West Palm Beach's polling place on Wednesday.

    Before the county's Democrats get hysterical and start aiming their cars at LePore, they should know that their party has at least two reasons for optimism. The first was noted earlier this month by Howard Goodman, a columnist for the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. According to Goodman, "Between August 2000 and August 2004, the Democratic voter rolls in Palm Beach County increased by 30,582. Almost 26,000 other people registered without declaring a political party. But Republicans added only 326 people."

    The second is that Palm Beach County uses Sequoia touch-screen machines, which were adapted in Nevada to include a paper trail. In that state, the Washington Post reported this week, "They were used for the fall primary, and tests afterward showed that the paper totals and electronic totals matched perfectly." So, Florida voters, by all means, vote absentee if it makes you feel better. But Nevada's primary provides a good reason to trust the machines.

              What Would John Paul Do?   

    COLUMBUS, Ohio—Al Gore couldn't carry Tennessee. But will John Kerry lose his home faith? Among Catholic voters in this state, a recent poll done by Ohio University showed Kerry trailing Bush 50 percent to 44 percent, while the race among Protestants was closer, with 50 percent backing Kerry and 49 percent behind Bush. (Though both results are within the margin of error.) The question isn't just a matter of trivia: In Sunday's New York Times, Adam Nagourney raised the question of whether a Kerry defeat would "make it more difficult for another Catholic to capture the Democratic nomination any time soon." Kerry's opposition to Church teaching on abortion (at least in public policy) led to several controversies, including the one where some bishops announced they would not give Kerry Communion if he were in their congregations. Losing a bishop or two is one thing; if Kerry can't carry the Catholic vote comfortably in swing states, electability-driven primary voters may look more skeptically at future Catholic candidates.

    Nationally, the polls have been mixed, and some recent polls have shown Kerry gaining ground among the flock. Last week's Zogby Poll showed Kerry leading among Catholics, and at Beliefnet, Slate's "Faith-Based" columnist Steven Waldman noted that undecided white Catholics broke for Kerry in two polls after the first debate. But despite that support, the debates over whether Kerry is a "real Catholic" have put liberal Catholics on the defensive and made them feel like an embattled minority. A convention of political journalism has added to the feeling: the unfortunate tendency to pronounce that "white men" or "married women with children" or "churchgoers" believe certain things, even when as many as 45 percent of the members of the demographic disagree. Journalism has no reservations about the tyranny of the majority.

    So, when several hundred Columbus-area Catholics, including a nun and several priests, gathered Sunday afternoon for a "Catholics for Kerry" rally, the event had the air of a coming-out party. The speakers on stage embraced each other as each one finished addressing the audience. "It feels good, doesn't it?" said Sen. Dick Durbin, a Democrat from Illinois. A member of the Columbus City Council, Maryellen O'Shaughnessy, sounded a we're-here-get-used-to-it note. "We won't be afraid to speak out on whom we support," she said. "We will not be cowed by some extremists who would have us be quiet."

    At times, the speakers at the event seemed more interested in rebuking the leaders of the Church who have criticized Kerry than in praising the candidate himself. It wasn't a sober gathering filled with theological and canonical explanations of where Kerry's politics fit in with Church teaching. Too often, the rally was an angry, if understandable, rant. Father James Colopy read a letter written by his aunt to the New York Times and a local newspaper after the Republican convention. Her brother was burned to death in Vietnam, and she was outraged at the Purple Heart band-aids worn by delegates. The Purple Heart "should be honored as the flag is honored," she wrote. "And [Bush] calls himself a pro-life president," Colopy said. "Lies, all lies." Father Greg Jones agreed that Bush was not pro-life in the Catholic sense—because he prosecuted an unjust war, because he executed more than 150 people as Texas governor, because his abortion policy "is full of asterisks"—and alluded to the Church's pedophilia scandal when he said, "Tainted leadership has promoted the lie." The pope and the Catholic Church demand respect for all life, "from conception to natural death, not death in the Texas deathhouse," Jones said. "You see, life doesn't end at birth." And minority groups are alive, too, Jones said. You're supposed to nurture the lives of all of them, "not just one lesbian in the White House." (Jones did have a funny riff on Lynne Cheney's outrage over her daughter's "outing": "Hello? She's a professional lesbian," who worked for Coors doing gay outreach. "She actually traveled the country with Mr. International Leather. That's pretty lesbian.")

    The speakers were smart men and women of faith, but they sometimes came across as imbued with the same self-righteousness as their political opponents. Eric McFadden, the man who organized the event through his Web site (and who was interviewed by Nightline beforehand), said he doesn't like it when the Bush campaign shows photos of the president with members of the Knights of Columbus, a Catholic organization. As a fourth degree Knight, "That's an affront to me, because he does not walk with Christ," McFadden said. Father John Ardis, Kerry's pastor from the Paulist Center in Boston, explained that Kerry's Catholic faith dictated his support for Democratic slogans like "closing the gun show loophole" and "extending the assault weapons ban."

    The quieter, less political moments were more effective. "God is real in John and Teresa's lives," Ardis said. "While they could undoubtedly choose to sit back and enjoy lives of relaxed leisure, they do not." By the time Sen. Durbin mentioned the Gospel story of the self-righteous prayer of the Pharisee and the humble prayer of the tax collector, his question—"How can those on the other side be so convinced of their righteousness?"—came as a rebuke not just to the religious right but, unintentionally, to the assembled religious left.

    On Monday, I went to McFadden's house to talk about the rally with him. He agreed that parts of the rally may have come across as self-righteous, but added, "What was said yesterday had to be said. My organization shouldn't have to exist." They started it, he said. "They drug my religion into it, my faith. We didn't ask for this." For example, the Bush campaign shows pictures of the president meeting with the pope. "At that meeting, Pope John Paul II scolded him and condemned his war." The pope supports a multilateral approach to fighting terrorism, he continued. "Pope John Paul hasn't said a word in these last two months about abortion. But Pope John Paul has condemned the war twice. … To me, the pope has endorsed the platform that John Kerry is running on with regards to the war on terror."

    McFadden, who is anti-abortion, concedes that some of Kerry's positions, such as his support for federal funding for abortion, are "tough," but says Catholics shouldn't be single-issue voters. And rallies like the one here on Sunday make him feel better. "I kind of felt like I was alone at the beginning."

    If John Kerry becomes president, the long-simmering divide between conservative and liberal Catholics will probably widen. But whether Kerry becomes president—and whether the Democrats wait four more decades before nominating another Catholic—may depend on just how not-alone McFadden is.

              I Want My GOTV   

    COLUMBUS, Ohio—With only nine days until this election is over (or so everyone hopes), we've reached the stage of the campaign when the political press evaluates each side's ground game. The media's track record on this is not encouraging. Almost exactly nine months ago, reporters were wandering around Iowa judging the merits of everyone's "organization, organization, organization." The verdict: Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt were the men to beat. We were dazzled by Gephardt's union support and by Dean's "Perfect Storm" of door-knocking, orange-hatted, out-of-state volunteers. They both got creamed.

    In hindsight, Dean's Perfect Storm has been judged a debacle on two levels: It annoyed Iowans, who don't like outsiders, and it tied up Dean's staff with organizational headaches—where should we house the Stormers? How can we keep them busy?—when the staff's time would have been better spent figuring out how to get Iowans to the caucuses. But at the time, it got great press.

    So, perhaps it's a bad omen for Kerry's ground game in Ohio when I discover that Christy Setzer, the woman who handled press for the Perfect Storm, has been assigned to deal with national reporters who parachute into Columbus to watch America Coming Together, the New New Thing of the general election, in action. That's not meant as a slap at Setzer—she's a terrific person who's good at her job (see the aforementioned glowing press)—but the parallels are irresistible. Like the Storm was for the caucuses, the George Soros-funded ACT is the Big Question Mark of the general election: How many of the new voters it registered in the past year are authentic? How many of them will show up to vote? Can this unconventional strategy win Kerry the presidency?

    ACT's army of red-coated canvassers are Kerry's Afghan warlords: He's outsourced his base campaign, his voter-registration drives, and a healthy chunk of his get-out-the-vote operation to them. Much of the rest of the operation will be handled by the groups (including ACT) that make up America Votes, another 527 that coordinates the voter-contact and voter-turnout operations of a host of interest groups, from the AFL-CIO to Planned Parenthood, to ensure that everyone's on the same page. In a sense, America Votes does for the liberal ground game what Grover Norquist's weekly meeting does for conservative talking points.

    When I ask Setzer to compare ACT to Dean's Storm, she says it differs in important ways. For one, the canvassers are paid workers and not volunteers, and the organization tries to hire locals instead of out-of-towners. More important, perhaps, the canvassers are supposed to identify voters and get them to the polls, not tell voters their personal stories of how far they've traveled and why they're committed to Howard Dean (or John Kerry). But the real key is that they don't work for just one weekend.

    The secret to turnout is frequent face-to-face contact with voters. That's a lesson Steve Rosenthal, the national head of America Coming Together, learned during his years as the political director of the AFL-CIO. Many people attribute Al Gore's victory in the popular vote in 2000—and his wins in every close state except Florida—to Rosenthal's turnout operation for the unions in 2000. Donna Brazile has called Rosenthal "the last great hope of the Democratic Party" and has compared him to Michael Whouley and Karl Rove. ACT is a national version of what Rosenthal did for Philadelphia Mayor John Street in 2003. In that race, 38,000, or 44 percent, of the 86,000 new voters Rosenthal registered came to the polls, he told National Journal earlier this year, compared to 28 or 29 percent of what the magazine called "voters from the same neighborhoods and similar socio-economic backgrounds who had registered on their own."

    In Ohio, ACT sends out between 200 and 250 paid canvassers each day. They get paid between $8 and $10 an hour. Setzer reels off impressive numbers: We've knocked on 3.7 million doors in Ohio, had more than 1 million conversations. On Election Day, ACT will send out 12,000 volunteers, each paid a stipend of $75 for travel and expenses, to make sure voters get to the polls. ACT and the partner organizations that make up America Votes have registered about 300,000 new voters in Ohio, and they'll consider it a success to turn out just half of them. Those voters alone, though, wouldn't swing the election. Four years ago, Bush's margin of victory was nearly 180,000 votes. In all, Ohio has between 700,000 and 800,000 new voters for this election, though Setzer points out that some of that could just be churn from voters who moved.

    My trip to watch two ACT canvassers in action wasn't very impressive, but that's because it was a Potemkin canvass, organized for the benefit of an MSNBC reporter and his camera. Malik Hubbard, 26, and Julian Johannesen, 32, walked up and down a few blocks in a largely African-American neighborhood in Columbus on a Saturday afternoon. As ACT's field directors for Franklin County, which includes Columbus, Hubbard and Johannesen don't usually canvass themselves. Each man carried a Palm Tungsten T2, which contained the addresses of the voters they were supposed to contact. It's Saturday afternoon on the day of the Ohio State homecoming game, so it's not optimal door-knocking time, but they do their best to put on a good show. When a voter answers the door, the canvasser gives him or her a flyer that has the address of the local polling place stamped on it. He explains that the polls will be open from 6:30 a.m. until 7:30 p.m., advises the voter to bring some form of identification to the polls in case their registration is challenged, and asks if there are any questions. On two separate occasions, a voter worries about a false rumor that the neighborhood's voting machines have been replaced with punch-card ballots. After talking to each voter, Hubbard and Johannesen input the data into their Tungsten T2s.

    Over the next nine days, canvassers will follow up with voters, continuing the personal contacts. For what it's worth, the Bush-Cheney campaign in the state is following a similar strategy, though it doesn't partly rely on an outside organization to carry it out. "I'm not saying we're gonna outperform the other side, because they have the potential to be spectacular," says Dave Beckwith, a Bush-Cheney spokesman in Ohio. "I'd just rather be where we are, with a real solid model." The model is the Republican "72 Hour Program," Karl Rove's get-out-the-vote operation from 2002, which helped the Republicans gain House and Senate seats in the midterm elections. Like ACT, the 72 Hour Program relies on frequent face-to-face contact with voters, what Bush's Ohio campaign manager Bob Paduchik calls "the volunteer-to-voter interface."

    "By and large, it is an effort to move closer to the Democrat knock-and-drag vote drive," Beckwith says. Republicans have traditionally relied on things like direct mail to get out the vote, but this time, "We are going to the personal contact system." The Bush-Cheney campaign has printed up small pamphlets that contain a list of each committed Bush voter in a neighborhood, along with voters' phone numbers and a map of the area. On Election Day, a volunteer takes the book and checks off each voter after they go to the polls.

    Beckwith admits that the Democrats have registered more new voters than the Republicans, but he says that their work was done by "mercenaries"—and they have "people signed up by crack addicts"—while his side employs volunteers, or "liberty-loving free men." Beckwith then drifts into a reverie about the Battle of San Jacinto and explains how Sam Houston knew that "conscripts" and the forces of "despotism" couldn't defeat free men. The enemy was saying, "Me no Alamo," Beckwith says with a laugh. (At another moment in the interview, Beckwith observes of the Kerry-Edwards campaign offices, "I think they're on Gay Street, which is interesting, because we're on Rich Street.")

    At the Bush-Cheney headquarters, I mention to Paduchik, Bush's Ohio campaign manager, how the media overestimated the effectiveness of Dean's Perfect Storm. Paduchik says the evidence of Bush's organization in Ohio is the size of his crowds, because the campaign distributes its tickets through its volunteers. When you see 22,000 people in Troy, Ohio, or 50,000 people in Westchester, Ohio, you know you're looking at "a real organization," he says. "It's not because we had tickets you could download from the Internet. It's not because we had put them on car windows, or had people pick them up at a 7-Eleven, like the other side does."

    On the way out, I'm reminded that all this work on both sides isn't necessarily a sign of confidence. As we walk to the door, Beckwith points to an empty portion of the Bush-Cheney offices. That's where the staff for Sen. George Voinovich works, he says. "These cocksuckers are up 30 points and they're never in here."

              Comment on 6 Ways to Love Your Body (That Lead to Better Sex!) by Brian Steere   
    Anything you believe will make you happy becomes an idol to which you sacrifice happiness to. The nature of relationship is not getting from - but giving to and receiving in like kind. If you withhold and withdraw your presence to a set of conditions that must be met or sought in order to then 'come out to share and play' - then you set the conditions of your own loss of worth and connection by what you then extend to others. Everything has all of the meaning you give it. But in fear we gave meanings that protected or hid the fear so as to 'survive' an intolerable situation. But you are free to look on what fear made and release it to let love in - instead of trying to overcome, mask or impose over an unlovely world, body or relationship FROM a point of separation and control - that is the condition in which love's honesty is denied while making gratification upon fantasy associations. "Behold I make all things new!" is the Nature of a truly shared existence. The recognition of Self in the Other is natural to the release of what you are NOT. Meeting what we are NOT without being triggered into shame or blame is of a genuine desire for true being - and not any self-driven sense of 'better' - though of course there is always an expansion of discovery of the More of Who You Truly Are - but this is not a devaluation of who you believed and experienced yourself to be. Intimacy of a true fulfilment cometh when ye thinketh NOT - so take NO thought for yourself - but behold the lover in whom is your delight. Can you let love in? Not if you are seeking gratifications for a fantasy - but we can only ever accept or love ourself as we are - by no longer rejecting or denying who we fear or hate to be. All communication is aligned true in a real relationship - but of course all blocks to such a relational intimacy arise to be recognized and released. The movement of love is a wholeness of being - that is 'being with'. You are never truly in anything or anywhere else - but the mind of fear is associated with the persistence of a fantasy given power over true - and thus afraid of, and blind to the true of others and of self. Put first things first and everything else aligns. If there was a 'how to love' there would be a condition that love cannot embrace that some process must transform to then become worthy. I hold this is BACKWARDS - and its thinking is a world in which everything is backwards! Feel and know within instead of imposing thought from a sense of 'without'. You are love - but must extend this to remember. The 'best sex' is completely free of any idea of 'sex' - for no thought comes between that which moves you both as one. The body in that sense, falls away and ... words cannot say. Even "I love you!" will generate a separation if the mind identifies in saying it - and yet when nothing is given the power to interrupt - everything is accepted as of the same purpose or movement of being. Share life and know its worth. Let love move as it will - given freedom to be. Connection is never gotten outside - but can be extended and reflected and shared as thought, word and deed. Such is the wonder of any relationship re-cognized.
              Bush's Ohio Valley   

    COLUMBUS, Ohio—White House press secretary Scott McClellan wandered into the press cabin on Air Force One this week to let the media know where President Bush would be campaigning. On Thursday, Pennsylvania. On Friday, Pennsylvania and Florida. On Saturday, Florida. Those are two of the presidential campaign's "Big Three" states, which nearly everyone assumes will decide the election. The glaring omission: Ohio.

    "Why aren't we going to Ohio? The president hasn't been there in several weeks," a reporter asked McClellan after the plane landed. Oops, the president will head to Canton on Friday, McClellan said. "I think I forgot to mention Ohio."

    McClellan's lapse is understandable. Bush seems to have forgotten about Ohio, too. "The Bush campaign is confident it can win the state; as if to prove its comfort level, today marks 14 days since the Republican president last set foot in Ohio," Cleveland's Plain Dealer wrote this past Saturday. By the time Bush arrives in Canton tomorrow, he'll have gone 19 days without campaigning in the Buckeye State. His last stop here was in Cuyahoga Falls on Oct. 2.

    Since then, John Kerry has held a town hall in Austintown on Oct. 3, a rally and a roundtable discussion in Elyria on Oct. 9, and a bus trip through Ohio's Appalachia on Saturday, Oct. 16. This week alone, he went to a Baptist church in Columbus, spoke at a minor-league ballpark in Dayton, went goose hunting near Youngstown, and delivered a speech on science in Columbus. According to the "Ohio pool" being held by members of Kerry's traveling press and staff (they're wagering on how many days the campaign will spend in Ohio between March 17 and Nov. 2), Kerry spent eight of the first 21 days of October in Ohio. He'd spent only 14 days in the state before this month.

    Ohio and Florida remain central to Kerry's Electoral College strategy. But for Bush, has Ohio been demoted? He's not going to start spending a lot of time in Ohio over the next few days after his Canton toe-touch. Here's his schedule after the Saturday trip to Florida: New Mexico on Sunday, Colorado and Iowa on Monday, and Wisconsin and Iowa on Tuesday. (Sunday's Alamogordo, N.M., rally is a change from the schedule issued two days ago, which showed President Bush spending the day at his Crawford ranch, with no public events. The late-inning vacation is one mistake from 2000 that Bush has apparently decided not to repeat.)

    Bush hasn't quite ceded Ohio. Vice President Cheney spent some time here this week, as did Condoleezza Rice and the Bush daughters. But Cheney's also been to Michigan, a state that's not exactly on the A-list of battleground states. For Bush's victory strategy, Ohio may be a state more like Michigan and Pennsylvania than a state like Florida: Winning it would kill Kerry, but losing it wouldn't kill Bush.

    ABC's The Note drew up this scenario earlier in the week: Kerry wins Ohio and Pennsylvania, but Bush wins the presidency by carrying Florida, Wisconsin, and two out of three from Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico. Maybe we should start calling Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico the "Little Four." Or maybe the Big Three should annex Iowa and Wisconsin and become the Big Five. The electoral scorecard from Slate's William Saletan estimates that if the election were held today, Bush would win the presidency while losing Ohio by picking up both Iowa and Wisconsin (and holding Nevada).

    Lots of Democrats took heart when the blogger Mystery Pollster declared that Bush was losing Ohio. But Ohio isn't this year's Florida, the one state Bush can't do without. It looks like Florida still is.

              Blog>> Knowledge Audits in Practice - Report on Global Survey   
    Let me thank the 150 respondents from all over who generously responded to my survey on knowledge audit perceptions and experiences. Some very useful insights from the responses, which I summarise below. The detailed report can be found in the attached pdf. Many of you expressed willingness to be contacted – I will be working on the interview plan over the coming weeks.Thanks again for all your help! Main Insights: 1. There is a wide array of understandings of what a knowledge audit is (both in the research literature and in practice). 2. People experienced in knowledge audits focus less on audits for compliance, quality or benchmarking – more general perceptions of knowledge audits amplify the importance of those types. 3. Knowledge audits are composite activities, combining several audit types, most usually an Inventory of knowledge stocks and flows, combined with an internal or external review of KM practices. 4. People experienced in knowledge audits tend to narrow the range of audit types used in combination, compared with general perceptions. 5. If an Inventory Audit is not conducted, the most common types used are internal or external reviews of KM practices, and audits of the quality of KM. 6. Knowledge audits most commonly focus on knowledge stocks and flows, KM processes, strategic knowledge needs and KM capabilities. 7. Knowledge audits are most commonly used to understand organisational knowledge needs, as input to a KM strategy, and to improve operational-level KM. 8. Knowledge audits use a very wide array of methods, with interviews, workshops and surveys being most favoured. The most effective methods are considered to be interviews for their depth and richness, and workshops for building knowledge maps and building consensus. 9. The biggest challenges in conducting knowledge audits relate to getting reliable, comprehensive and accurate data covering non-obvious knowledge sources as well as the obvious ones. This is partially connected to how the audit is scoped, the engagement methods deployed, and how communications are managed, particularly in getting consistent understandings of the goals. The second major cluster of challenges relates to the time required for an audit, getting management buy-in, and getting participation from the right people. 10. The most cited benefit from a knowledge audit is its ability to build consensus and provide underpinning evidence for KM planning, and for a KM strategy and roadmap. A second major benefit (particularly relating to Inventory Audits) is its value in locating important knowledge and ensuring effective knowledge access and use. Download the detailed report here If you are in Europe in May, don’t forget to check out the Social Now Conference in Lisbon, May 10-12 – it will be packed with KM thinkers and practitioners, with some excellent masterclasses and a very practical, case-based approach. I’ll be leading a Masterclass on Knowledge Audits at that event. For more resources on knowledge audits, click here
              Kerry Speaks French   

    ORLANDO—Let's see: Your opponent is characterizing you as an effete internationalist willing to "turn America's national security decisions over to international bodies or leaders of other countries." In particular, he suggests, in all seriousness, that you want to call up Jacques Chirac for permission before deploying the military. At the Republican National Convention, you were portrayed as a beret-wearing poodle named "Fifi Kerry." How should you defend yourself against these slanders?

    By speaking French on the stump, of course. Click here to hear John Kerry's foray into the language of Paris during a Monday rally here. I wasn't watching Kerry on stage when he made his remarks, but from the context he appears to have seen someone from Haiti and decided to acknowledge the person in his or her native tongue.

    What does Kerry say? My knowledge of French is limited to the lyrics to "Lady Marmalade," so I consulted my friend John Wilkerson, a Washington journalist and French speaker. He translates the first part as, "You're Haitian? OK," but says the rest sounded like gibberish. "I think at that point he was just a character on Saturday Night Live," Wilkerson says.

    Readers? Can anyone make it out? Post your explanations, serious or otherwise, in the Fray. Slug them "Kerry's French translation."

    Scotland's Sunday Herald called Kerry's French fluency a "campaign secret" yesterday. Looks like the secret is out. Here's some suggested spin for the Kerry campaign: He wasn't speaking French. He was speaking Freedom.

    Update, 10/19/04: According to the New York Times, Agence France-Presse, and bazillions of readers, Kerry said, "Je vais aider les Haitiens," which means, "I will help the Haitians." Sticklers say Kerry mispronounced both "Haiti" and "Haitians," which caused several people to think he said, "I will help the states." Canadians said they had the easiest time understanding Kerry, since they're used to listening to American-accented French.

    Assessments of Kerry's accent ranged from "impeccable" to "good" to "mediocre" to "abominable" to "better than Bush's Texas-twinged Spanglish." One correspondent wrote, "It sounds more like, 'I'm going to help the Chechens!' "

    My favorite fanciful translation: "I have a plan to learn French."

              Bush's Big Mistake   

    TEMPE, Ariz.—"The president is an alien. There's your quote of the day," Ken Mehlman said before the final presidential debate to reporters who were peppering him with questions about the rectangular shape underneath the president's jacket during the first debate. "He's been getting information from Mars," said Bush's campaign manager, and at the debate, "his alien past will be exposed."

    Well, at least it wasn't that bad. Indisputably, this was the president's best debate. Just as it took Al Gore three debates to settle on the right tone during the 2000 campaign, President Bush figured out in his third face-off with John Kerry how to be neither too hot nor too cold. But Kerry was as good as he can be, too, and more important, what good the president did with his performance will be overshadowed Thursday when the TV networks spend the entire day running video clips of him saying of Osama Bin Laden on March 13, 2002, "I truly am not that concerned about him."

    By denying that he had ever minimized the threat posed by Bin Laden, Bush handed Kerry, during the very first question, the victory in the post-debate spin. The Kerry campaign's critique of the president is that he doesn't tell the truth, that he won't admit mistakes, and that he refuses to acknowledge reality. Bush's answer played into all three claims. Within minutes, the Kerry-Edwards campaign e-mailed reporters the first of its "Bush vs. Reality" e-mails, complete with a link to the official White House transcript. A half-hour later, the Democratic National Committee circulated the video.

    If the president had ignored Kerry's charge, everyone would have forgotten about it. By contesting it, Bush handed Kerry two gifts: As delighted as the Kerry people must be by yet another untruthful statement from the president, the substance of this particular statement is even more important. Dick Cheney's false declaration that he had never met John Edwards didn't help the Bush campaign, but this error will be orders of magnitude more damaging. Video of the vice president standing next to Edwards at a prayer breakfast is embarrassing. Video of the president saying he isn't concerned about the mastermind behind the Sept. 11 attacks is devastating.

    The president's blunder also provided at least a glimpse of the foreign-policy debate I hoped to see. Here's a more complete version of the president's 2002 comment: "I truly am not that concerned about him. I know he is on the run. I was concerned about him, when he had taken over a country. I was concerned about the fact that he was basically running Afghanistan and calling the shots for the Taliban." The president's philosophy toward the war on terror could not be clearer: It is a war against nation-states, not against "nonstate actors" like al-Qaida. Bin Laden was dangerous because he controlled a state, not because he controls a terrorist network. When the Bush campaign talks about "going on the offense," this is what they mean. Kerry, after all, talks about hunting down the terrorists where they live. To Bush, that's not good enough. The subtext of the initial exchange between Bush and Kerry was more illuminating than the entire first debate.

    The Bush counteroffensive to the president's mistake was to try to find a Kerry misstatement to fill in the "on the other hand" section in fact-checking news stories. During the debate, Bush campaign spokesman Steve Schmidt sent out an "Urgent Alert" to reporters that read, complete with weird capitalization: "John Kerry's statement that he passed 56 bills during his 20 years in the senate is a complete and utter falsehood. Kerry passed five bills and Four resolutions." In Spin Alley after the debate was over, Bush campaign communications director Nicolle Devenish called Kerry's comment about the number of bills he authored his "Al Gore moment." But when Schmidt asserts that Kerry passed only five bills and four resolutions, he means bills that passed both houses of Congress and were signed into law. The Bush campaign's own "Breaking Debate Fact" e-mailed during the debate says that Kerry was the lead sponsor of 31 bills, 122 amendments, and 28 resolutions that passed the Senate.

    Kerry did make some misstatements of his own, of course. He repeatedly said his health-care plan covers all Americans, which isn't true, and his assertion that the Bush campaign hasn't met with the Congressional Black Caucus isn't true, either. After the debate, Joe Lockhart admitted that Bush had a "ceremonial" meeting with the black caucus. But Kerry's minor inaccuracies will be overshadowed by the video of Bush saying, "I truly am not that concerned about him."

    The most telling pre-debate quote came from Tony Fabrizio, a Republican pollster who told the New York Times that the first debate "was a chance for the president to lay [Kerry] out and just lock it. In the past two weeks, that's been turned on its head." That was my sense going into this debate: The situation was precisely the reverse of where the campaign stood before the first debate. Another decisive win for Kerry could have ended the race, as the campaign dominoes would have begun to fall his way. That didn't happen, and the debate was much closer than Kerry would have liked.

    But as with previous debates, Kerry won the post-debate instant polls. After the last two, Kerry's margin of victory grew substantially beyond the margins in the snap polls. Bush's Bin Laden goof will give Kerry his best opportunity to score a post-debate knockout.

              Unanswered Questions   

    SCOTTSDALE, ARIZ.—There are lots of questions going into the third and final presidential debate of the 2004 campaign: Will President Bush find his inside voice? After two debate victories, will the overconfident, coasting "Bad Kerry" return? Will Bush wire himself with an earpiece so he can listen to the baseball playoffs? What bad Red Sox joke will Kerry make? Most important, wouldn't the nation be better off if this were another foreign-policy debate?

    If you've paid any attention at all to the presidential campaign for the past seven months, you know the basic differences between Bush and Kerry on taxes, health care, education, abortion, same-sex marriage, Social Security, outsourcing, or whatever your favorite domestic issue is. There are no unanswered questions for the two men that I can think of. Instead, Wednesday night's debate will be a shallow exercise in political point-scoring, with each candidate trying to highlight the embarrassing parts of his opponent's record.

    Normally, I'd think such an event would be both great fun and worthwhile. But on foreign policy, the central issue of this election, there's still a great deal of confusion as to where each candidate stands, despite a presidential debate and a half, and a vice presidential debate, on the subject. Do you know, for example, what John Kerry's position is on how the nation should deal with state sponsors of terrorism? Does he agree with Bush that those who harbor terrorists are as guilty as the terrorists themselves? What's his opinion of the Bush Doctrine? Would he amend it? If so, how? Does he think the nation should adhere to a foreign-policy doctrine, or should we just take an ad hoc approach to terrorism and other global problems?

    None of those questions were addressed in the first three debates. The campaign's focus on unilateralism vs. internationalism has obscured the more fundamental foreign-policy difference between Bush and Kerry: their views on the role of states, and state sponsors, in the war on terror. Matt Bai's New York Times Magazine piece on John Kerry's view of the war on terror elucidates this difference between the two men more clearly than any article yet written on Kerry's foreign policy, including manful attempts by the Atlantic and TheNew Yorker.

    Bush's war on terror assumes that states are the main actors in international affairs. After 9/11, Bush expressed skepticism that a mere "network" could have pulled off such a feat. Bush, Bai writes, does not believe that terrorists "can ultimately survive and operate independently of states." The Bush National Security Strategy calls terrorists "clients" of rogue states. The Bush war on terror is remarkably state-centric. After the fall of Afghanistan, the administration immediately began looking for the next state to topple.

    Kerry focuses on nonstate actors, international networks that operate outside of state control. "Kerry's view, on the other hand, suggests that it is the very premise of civilized states ... that is under attack," Bai writes. Kerry's internationalism stems from his view of the war on terror, rather than vice versa: "And no one state, acting alone, can possibly have much impact on the threat, because terrorists will always be able to move around, shelter their money and connect in cyberspace; there are no capitals for a superpower like the United States to bomb, no ambassadors to recall, no economies to sanction."

    The clear implication of Bai's article is not, as the Bush campaign would have it, that Kerry wants only to reduce terrorism to a "nuisance" while Bush wants to eliminate it. It's that Bush would seek to topple more regimes in his second term, while Kerry wouldn't. Perhaps everyone already knew that. But don't you want to know more about it? I've already proposed several questions for Kerry. Here are some for Bush: Mr. President, you say John Kerry has a "fundamental misunderstanding" of the war on terror when he says it is only a war against al-Qaida. Does this mean that you are likely to try to change other regimes by force in the Middle East in your second term—those that harbor, say, Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad? You say those who harbor terrorists are as guilty as the terrorists themselves. What countries in the world are harboring terrorists, and how do you plan to punish them for their guilt? When you mock Sen. Kerry for saying the war on terror is in large part a "law enforcement operation," are you saying that breaking up terrorist cells is insufficient for victory in the war? What is sufficient for victory? Other than Iraq and Afghanistan, where do you see the next battleground in the war on terror?

    If you want to know about the candidates' health-care plans, you can read about them on their Web sites and in newspaper articles. We're a nation at war. Don't you wish the two candidates had to answer some more questions about who exactly we're at war with?

              The $84 Question   

    ST. LOUIS—Mike McCurry may have set a new standard in expectations-lowering when he predicted before Friday's debate that his candidate would actually lose in his face-off with President Bush. About a half-hour before Bush and John Kerry walked on stage at Washington University, McCurry made this prediction to a group of reporters in the media filing center: "I guarantee you the story will be"—putting on his best "Sunday! Sunday! Sunday!" announcer voice—"'Bush bounced back from a dismal performance and sets up the exciting showdown in Arizona ...' "

    It sounded good, and in a sense it's true. Bush did bounce back. This wasn't "the Old Testament version of Bush," as McCurry called the bumbling caricature who showed up for the first debate. But it wasn't the return of the charmer of 2000, either. The consensus on the Bush press bus—I'll be traveling with the president between this debate and the finale Wednesday in Tempe—on the way back to our hotel was that Kerry had bested the president once again. Or perhaps it was a tie, but most reporters thought that a draw favors Kerry, because he's got the momentum, and he just has to convince people that he's not a vacillating weakling to get their votes.

    Here's my predicted storyline: Before last week's debate, the speculation was whether Bush could knock Kerry out of the race with a decisive win. Heading into next week's debate, my guess is that the speculation will be about whether Kerry can put Bush away and end the campaign before the final three-week stretch begins. In particular, there will be a lot of focus on how the debate favors Kerry because the subject will be domestic policy.

    But based on this debate, Bush may have the upper hand next week. Kerry had his foreign-policy answers nailed. He dominated the early portions that dealt with Iraq. But when the questions turned homeward it was Kerry, not Bush, who was on the defensive. A little of the meandering, incoherent Kerry returned, particularly in his answers to the questions on tort reform, stem-cell research, and federal funding for abortions. (But at least Kerry didn't bring up the Dred Scott decision. President Bush: Against chattel slavery.) Kerry may also just be easier to caricature, despite what the polls say, on domestic issues. Surely people are more apt to believe that Kerry will tax them to death than to believe the "global test" nonsense being peddled by the Bush campaign.

    Though that wasn't the Bush spin Friday night. The Bush surrogates came into Spin Alley ready to sell the idea that Kerry failed to distance himself during the debate from the "global test" they call the "Kerry doctrine." Unfortunately, their decision highlighted one of the central flaws in Spin Alley: The spinners don't watch the end of the debates. By the time the candidates get to their closing remarks, the campaign staffers and surrogates have positioned themselves near the assembled press, and they're readying themselves for questions and TV appearances. So, maybe Bush campaign communications director Nicolle Devenish didn't hear Kerry say in his closing statement, "I will never cede the authority of our country or our security to any other nation. I'll never give a veto over American security to any other entity—not a nation, not a country, not an institution." Despite Kerry's clear renunciation of a foreign "permission slip," here was Devenish's spin as soon as the debate ended: "What was striking to me was that Kerry didn't even try to retract the global test. He has now accepted the Kerry doctrine as his own." Bush deputy campaign manager Mark Wallace said something similarly erroneous: "He affirmed the global test today, that would say there has to be permission from the world before you can take action." Actually, Kerry did the exact opposite.

    Still, Devenish was the only Bush spinner I spoke to after the debate who didn't try to defend the president's strange assertion about the Duelfer report, that it shows that sanctions weren't working in Iraq. "I have to confess to being a campaign official and not an NSC spokesgal," she said. By contrast, here was Dan Bartlett: "Charlie Duelfer said both in the report and in his testimony that sanctions were unraveling, that the gaming of the system that Saddam Hussein was doing was doing just that. He was trying to game it by bribing people." But Saddam was trying to bribe people to get the sanctions lifted, and he wanted them lifted because they worked, because they prevented him from reconstituting his weapons programs. Here's Wallace: Saddam "was making a concerted effort to avoid sanctions," and "he had the means and the ability to reconstitute his WMD program." But, wait—the sanctions were precisely what were keeping Saddam from doing that. He had "the means and the ability" only if the sanctions had been lifted, and a Bush veto in the United Nations could have kept the sanctions in effect permanently. Ed Gillespie and Ken Mehlman cited the oil-for-food program as evidence that the sanctions didn't work. But again, Saddam's bribes were an attempt to get out of the sanctions that had stripped him of his chemical weapons, his biological weapons, and his nuclear program.

    The defensible position for Bush would have been to argue that we had no way of knowing whether sanctions were working before we invaded. But instead he's resorted to this preposterous idea that because Saddam was trying to evade the sanctions, somehow that was evidence that the sanctions weren't working. Somehow the fact that Saddam has no weapons and no stockpiles was evidence that sanctions weren't working.

    After Vice President Cheney's frequent difficulties with the truth on Tuesday, President Bush's veracity was under increased scrutiny in this debate. But that didn't stop his campaign from peddling another "global test" lie, nor did it stop Bush from misconstruing Kerry's health-care plan and willfully distorting the conclusions of the Duelfer report. (Let's call Bush's unwillingness to admit a mistake a self-deception, rather than a deception foisted upon the public.) If President Bush weren't running such a truth-stretching campaign, his strangest untruth of the night, denying that he received $84 in income from a timber company, wouldn't be a big deal. After all, it's only $84. Then again, maybe the president voted for the truth about the $84 before he decided against it.

    Firstly, I've not been able to post any updates on my dear little felt bag, because I've not been able to finish it.  Just after my last post, I caught my finger around one of the dog's leads, and it wrenched.  Subsequently, it's been painful and I've not been able to hand sew or cross stitch, and writing with a pen has also been painful and difficult.  In the first week or so, even holding a knife was hard.  It's finally getting better, so I think I should finish it very soon and will then post pics - it really is adorable.  

    Since then there's been quite a bit to share.  I've just finished a quilt but haven't yet photographed it, so will save that for another post.  Some birthday cards - first up.  The first card shown is one I made for Andrew's 40th birthday which was on the weekend.  I started with a plain white card blank, then added some dark blue linen textured card.  Layered on top of this was a turquoise card which I had embossed through the Sizzix Bigshot machine, giving it a nice texture.  Then I added another panel, which I had previously decorated using alchohol inks in a random splodgy, swirly pattern, with silver metallic bits randomly added too.  On this card, I used some Tim Holtz rubber stamps, added in black ink, and finally I added some adhesive blue butterflies.  Unfortunately the metallic splodges haven't photographed very well - the effect in real life is gorgeous.  Importantly, the recipient was very pleased with it.  

    The second card was for Roger, Andrew's dad, whose birthday is the day after Andrew's.  I started with a plain gold square card, and layered on a piece of K & Co patterned paper.  Then I took a piece of paper and ran it through the Sizzix using a new die, giving the square with the bobbly edges.  Once I had the basic shape, I gently sponged the paper with green ink and sprayed it with the Glitz spritz using the silver and emerald colours. These were dried with a heat gun and finally I stamped it, using the pear stamp I got from Blade Rubber up in London, back in March and a small message saying Happy Birthday. Immediately after stamping, I brushed some gold Perfect Pearls over the pears which gave it a gorgeous shimmer.  The last step was to add some leaf shaped brads to the corner holes of the square. Unfortunately the photo didn't come out very well, and I only realised this after I had posted the card, so was unable to redo it.  

    The third card was a thank you card for the tutor on the Kennel Club course I have recently done with Boola (full details on my other blog).  I started with a plain white card, then added a layer of green linen textured card.  On a piece of plain white card, I gently sponged some distress inks over the background then stamped it using several botanical images in different colours, mainly in an autumnal palette.  Finally, using a brad, I attached a Tim Holtz Adage Ticket, in this case saying "Soar" which seemed appropriate for a teacher.     Lastly, I gave the whole card a gentle spritz with a glitz spritz which added a subtle shimmer. 

    Finally, I have just finished making the place cards for the family party we are hosting this coming weekend.  There will be nine of us round the table in a joint birthday celebration for Andrew, Roger and Booty.  Given Booty's fondness for squirrels, we decided that would be a great theme, so I spent ages scouring the net for squirrel themed craft goodies.  Eventually I was able to find some squirrel dies that could be used in my machine so I ordered them.  For each card, I started with a folded base card of a pewter wood effect  card (this seemed entirely appropriate!).  Next, I added a cream card that was embossed and then brushed with a distress ink gently, this had the effect of picking up the raised embossing.  On top of this I layered up a piece of patterned K & Co card from the Wild Saffron range, then on top of that I added a printed name which I had printed out on the computer. On the right side of each name, I added a couple of die cut leaves or nuts, in autumnal shades of brown and green.  On the left hand side was the squirrrel.  Each squirrel had to be diecut in two parts, body and tail and this was done on orange paper, which I then gently shaded using a brown ink. The squirrel's eye was a black adhesive pearl and the final touch was to add a little orange glitter glue.  I'm very happy with the finished article and they should add a nice festive touch to the party. 

              Cufflinks - Your Secret Weapon   
    Looking to add a touch of class and sophistication to your outfit? With lines blurring between male and female attire, ties and cufflinks often feature in top designer collections. Cufflinks come in a variety of designs and compliment outfits for both men and women.
              Edwards' Table Manners   

    CLEVELAND—Democrats who wanted John Kerry to select John Edwards as his running mate always cited the 90 minutes that will come Tuesday night as one of the most important reasons. The party faithful are still irked by Joe Lieberman's chummy disposition four years ago as Dick Cheney amiably disemboweled him during the vice-presidential debate. Edwards supporters believed that putting one of the nation's most effective trial lawyers on the ticket would stop Cheney from killing again.

    But Edwards' performances were uneven in the debates held during the Democratic primaries in 2003 and 2004. Twice—in Iowa just before the caucuses and in Wisconsin—he won so decisively that he probably helped himself at the polls as a result. He also performed impressively in the youth debate held in Boston, when he marched toward Howard Dean and confronted him for saying he wanted the votes of people with Confederate flags in their pickup trucks. But on other occasions Edwards disappeared, or stumbled when forced to speak outside of his scripted talking points. Particularly worrisome for those rooting for him in the veep debate, two of Edwards' worst primary debates—the Larry King-moderated debate in Los Angeles and the Dan Rather-moderated debate in New York City—occurred when the participants were seated at a table with the moderator, just as Cheney, Edwards, and PBS's Gwen Ifill will be here on Tuesday night.

    Here's a speculative explanation of why Edwards did poorly in those debates: Edwards is a highly theatrical performer on the stump. He is, at heart, an actor. That's how one member of the media who has followed Edwards this campaign described him to me. Bill Clinton, this person said, was no different in front of a crowd than he was on the campaign plane. But for Edwards, this reporter said, "It's acting." He's a different guy backstage. Maybe Edwards has a tough time "getting into character" when he is seated at a table with his opponent, instead of roaming free onstage as he would in a courtroom. He's one of those actors who looks great on a proscenium, but who doesn't translate to the quieter media of film and television.

    Or maybe Table Edwards is closer to the private Edwards than Stage Edwards, his public persona. What little personal contact I've had with Edwards during the campaign has always led me to think that he's an intensely private man. His chosen sport is running, an activity that appeals to the solitary and the introspective. I was struck by how Edwards, during an interview with Fox News Sunday a few months ago, refused to discuss his consumption of copious amounts of Diet Coke, repeatedly smiling and saying, "We're not going to talk about that." An unimportant moment? Sure, but not a meaningless one.

    In many ways, Edwards' desire to not give himself fully to the public is laudable, such as his refusal to discuss the death of his son Wade, "in the context of politics," as he put it in a profile in the October issue of Vogue. But the contradiction between Edwards' public persona and his private self always surprises people when I tell them about it, because he's so charismatic on the stump. That Vogue profile also noticed the differences between the public and the private man: "Edwards does not joke; despite his easy grin, he is described by close friends as 'serious,' 'solid,' 'quiet,' " wrote Julia Reed. "When I ask his best friend and former law partner David Kirby if Edwards is ever loose, he says, 'No, he is not. He runs an hour every day—that's what he considers relaxation.' "

    Serious, solid, quiet: Those are words that most voters would apply to Dick Cheney, not John Edwards. Television fools us into thinking we know someone, when we really don't. The best politicians of the TV age have used that trick of the small screen to their advantage. Edwards, so far in his short political career, has impressed many observers with his ability to impress voters in courtroom-like settings, in small gatherings and one-on-one encounters. But he hasn't mastered television yet. Two of his biggest TV moments so far, his appearance on Meet the Press last year and his acceptance speech at the Democratic convention, were both criticized.

    But another great skill of plaintiffs' lawyers, and of John Edwards, is the ability to cram, to immerse themselves in a subject on deadline. Tuesday night, when Edwards sits down at that table, we'll learn how quick a study he really is.

    So, as I described over at my other blog, on Thursday last I went to the first in a two part class at Busy Bees on how to make a beautiful felt embroidered bag.  Normally I do quilt classes there but I like the fact that they also run these associated needlework courses.  The bag was made from a lovely piece of rather gorgeous felt, in a rich cerise colour.  It was difficult to choose a colour, as there were so many lovely ones, and I was not familiar with working or stitching on this type of surface.  In the class, we were shown how to make a simple template for our bag, then cut out the felt and the batting and glued these together.  Very simple so far! Then came the fun part - embroidery.  Sandra, our wonderful tutor gathered us round, and demonstrated a variety of stitches to us.  Each of us had been given a practice piece of felt and batting to work with and I was using a new type of thread to me, perle, space dyed in lovely bright shades, and much chunkier needles than I am used to using for my cross stitch.  It was lovely to sit round in a circle with Sandra teaching us, making our first faltering attempts and Sandra kindly showing us again and again so patiently and cheerfully what to do.  The class was full of laughter and smiles as we got to grips with our new stitches, and I was amazed when it was half past twelve and time to go.  Sandra had equipped us with the ideas and tools to decorate our bags so our job was to to go home and wield our needles, and do the decorative stitching before returning next week, to make a handle, sew the bag together and add a fastening.  

    On getting home, I realised that I needed to practice some of the new stitches and had an idea.  I bought some felt at the local craft store, and cut out some Christmas ornament shapes using a template from a card making goody bag.  My Crop a dile punched a hole in the top for a ribbon, and added a decorative hole finisher (never sure of the right word for these!).  Then I did little rows of stitching and added pretty gold and coloured seed beads to give twinkle and dimension.  The effect was pretty and festive and I liked it, although I need to keep practicing. 

    The pics attached show the finished festive ornaments and the bag in the various stages as stitching and then beading was added. 

              "Four-in-hand" - A Simple Universal Tie Tying Method   
    Fashion can be fickle and ever changing but it is evident that one article of clothing is here to stay. Representative of power, aristocracy and class, the necktie continues to be an essential item for all closets. For both men and women a well tied tie is a key power accessory to any outfit.

    Here are a couple of cards I made last night.  One is a thank you card for a friend.  As well as being a talented quilter, she is also a successful beader, and yesterday she kindly gave me a pair of gorgeous beaded ear-rings. that she had recently made.

    For both of them, I used a square lilac base card, then got out my faithful Sizzix and cut some square background pieces of patterned paper.  Next, I took some pieces of cream card that I had previously fed through the Sizzix inside an embossing folder, thus producing a gorgeous texture.  After being embossed, they were also die-cut to make smaller square shapes.  Taking a purple chalk inkpad  I then rubbed the ink gently over the raised pattern - this gives a lovely effect, as the colouring is light but picks out the pattern.  In the centre of the flowers, I used glitter glue to highlight. Then I added the felt butterflies, a row of self adhesive purple flowers along the bottom, and then using my pokey tool, some flowers with brad centres. Finally, I added a little glitter glue to the flower petals and the paler butterfly. 

    Two beautiful, but quite simple cards, using a technique that I hope to explore more in the future.  I have just ordered from QVC some more embossing folders, new ones from Tim Holtz so it should be hours of fun experimenting with those.

              Scenes From Spin Alley   

    MIAMI—Karl Rove must have known things didn't go well when the New York Post asked him whether this was the worst debate of President Bush's life. No, Rove insisted. This was one of the president's best debates, and one of John Kerry's worst. "Really?" asked the reporter, Vince Morris. "You can say that with a straight face?"

    As soon as the first presidential debate ended, the reporters and campaign surrogates in attendance hustled into "spin alley," where Karl Rove, Karen Hughes, Dan Bartlett, Tad Devine, Joe Lockhart, Mike McCurry, and other eminences of spin practice their craft. (There were other, lesser luminaries, such as Kerry's Swift boat crewmate Del Sandusky, who seemed to have trouble finding reporters to talk to.) The whole affair is a little bit ridiculous, as the participants are less honest than NFL coaches during halftime interviews, but you do get a sense of two things: The questions asked by reporters indicate who the press thinks won the debate, and the answers are a good gauge of how the two campaigns will try to frame the post-debate debate over how each candidate did.

    On the first indicator, Bush was the clear loser. One of the first questions asked of Rove was whether the president's frequent pausing was a problem. Rove disputed that Bush paused because he wasn't sure what to say. "Paused for effect, is what I think," he said. Over and over again, Bush surrogates were asked about the president's demeanor. (Question for Paul Krugman: Are you still angry about the media's focus on style over substance?) Wasn't the president defensive? a reporter asked Matthew Dowd. Didn't he look confused? a reporter asked Ken Mehlman. "I think he spoke with passion," Mehlman said. Another reporter asked Bartlett, didn't the president look irritated? Tired? "I think he showed a range of emotions," Bartlett said.

    The Kerry people were triumphant, and they grew more so as the night wore on. Immediately after the debate ended, Tad Devine was confident, saying that Kerry gave the "impression" that he could be president. "I think that's new to a lot of people" who have been inundated with negative TV ads, Devine said. (Devine also said the Kerry campaign, beginning Friday, would shift to the domestic agenda in its TV advertisements. Kerry will continue to talk about Iraq, but there won't be many ads about it.) Later in the evening, however, Devine's quiet confidence was replaced by gloating. He waved the numbers from the CBS and ABC overnight polls, which he had written down on a notepad, showing that wide margins of voters thought Kerry won. "Blowout is the word that comes to mind," Devine said. "Tonight they saw the 44th president of the United States. His name is John Kerry."

    But didn't the overnight polls look good for Al Gore at first? "I think Gore hurt himself against Gore. And I'll sigh to that effect," Devine said. So, you're not worried that the Bush campaign will come up with some misstatements or mistakes by Kerry and use them to change voters' minds? "I missed all the sighs tonight from John Kerry," Devine cackled. If Kerry is within a couple of points by the middle of next week, he said, then the campaign will consider it a victory. Matthew Dowd, on the other hand, predicted only that Bush's lead would solidify in the polls. "It won't expand," he said.

    Each campaign thought it had a moment from the debate that it could use to bludgeon the other side. The Bush campaign said Kerry increased the contradictions in his Iraq position by saying that Bush made a mistake when he invaded Iraq but also saying that American soldiers were not dying for a mistake. Kerry's position on the war showed "an escalation of vacillation to a more sinister place, one where he manipulates his positions based on political calculations," Bush campaign communications director Nicolle Devenish said. "It's really a strong skill to say something that's so disconnected from what you said yesterday. And I will call it a skill." The Kerry campaign thinks Bush made a huge mistake by talking about taxes after Kerry proposed a number of ways to improve homeland security. Both Joe Lockhart and Mike McCurry said Bush showed he thinks tax cuts are more important than homeland security, and that the comment was Bush's worst moment.

    I asked Dan Bartlett if he thought it was bad that President Bush kept having to look down at the podium and read his remarks. No, Bush was "taking notes," Bartlett said, and he had to do that because "Sen. Kerry was throwing the kitchen sink at him." President Bush may not be "articulate," he said, but he won the debate with his "conviction and core beliefs." Using a phrase the Bush surrogates deployed frequently, Bartlett said Bush spoke "from the heart." I asked the same question of Mike McCurry. His answer: "There's some things you just don't have to spin."

    As mentioned in my other blog, we hosted two of our nephews last week for a couple of days.  I took lots of pictures, as did Andrew, including some he took via his Blackberry, and was able to email back to me while still out on the boat on Cardiff Bay! After the boys had gone back, and I'd emailed a few pics to their parents and grandparents, I uploaded a selection to Photobox and ordered some prints, as well as a couple of enlargements.  One of our nephews gets on particularly well with one of our greyhounds, and we had a lovely picture of him and the hound in question walking together, so I'm going to get a nice frame and send it to him.  The other prints were ordered with a view to a scrapbook, and as usual I was very impressed by Photobox.  Pics were uploaded on Tuesday morning, and by Wednesday lunchtime Keith our lovely postie was knocking on the door with a rather soggy envelope for me (it was pouring with rain). 

    I've made up a little scrapbook using 6" x 6" page sizes.  Some time ago, I bought a little box from QVC, of about 20 assorted mini scrapbooks, which has been a real treasure.  Whenever I want to make up a little book I can go to the box, and know I can pull something out easily.  I chose a nice little bright spotty design and got to work.  As the prints were mainly 6" x 4", in some cases all I needed to do was mount them on some suitable background paper, but in other cases I went a bit fancy, and used my diecutter to frame the key elements and layer up some paper and embellishments.  It was fun to choose and edit the pictures and put in a few simple captions, so the boys will always have a nice reminder of their trip.  I am also going to send their parents a duplicate set of prints, as I know they enjoy putting them in photo albums. 

              Daydreaming About Dean   

    MIAMI—Can we change horses in midstream? Democrats wanted Republicans and independent voters to be asking themselves that question at this stage in the presidential campaign, but with little more than a month to go before Election Day, some Democrats are asking it of themselves. It's the seven-month itch: The long general-election campaign has led the voters who settled down with Mr. Stability to wonder what would have happened if they had pursued their crushes on riskier but more exciting candidates. What if dreamy John Edwards were the nominee instead of John Kerry? Would he be better able to explain his votes for war and against the $87 billion to fund the war? Would his campaign have been leaner and more effective than Kerry's multitudes? Or what about Democrats' first love, Howard Dean? Remember him? Would his straightforward opposition to the war in Iraq look more prescient now than it did during the Iowa caucuses, which were held shortly after Saddam Hussein was captured?

    The most surprising Democrat to engage in this daydreaming is one who never dated Dean in the first place: Peter Beinart, editor of the New Republic. Writing in Time, Beinart says, "[T]here's reason to believe [Democratic primary voters] guessed wrong—that Dean would be doing better against Bush than Kerry is." Deaniacs can be forgiven for being a little bit piqued at the timing of Beinart's conversion. After all, most Dean supporters thought Beinart's magazine did its best to torpedo the Dean candidacy for much of 2003, including an online "Diary of a Dean-o-Phobe." But TNR also ran glowing profiles of Dean and his campaign manager, Joe Trippi, and it never married Kerry, either. Although the magazine ultimately endorsed Joe Lieberman, its endorsement issue contained an article praising every other major Democratic contender—Dean, Edwards, Dick Gephardt—except John Kerry. So, it's understandable why Beinart would be one of the first to fantasize about divorce.

    Beinart argues that Dean's clarity on the war, his straight-talking authenticity, and his lack of a Senate voting record would have forced President Bush to focus on the issue of Iraq, rather than the character of John Kerry. Not everyone who worked for Howard Dean during the primaries agrees that the Vermont governor would have been a stronger nominee—in fact, some say just the opposite or even burst into laughter at the notion—but one senior Dean adviser that I talked to Wednesday agrees strongly. "If Howard Dean were the nominee right now, nobody would be wondering where he stands on Iraq, nobody would be accusing us of not fighting back, and we wouldn't be fighting to hold on to our base," said the adviser, who asked that his name not be used. Kerry's "thoughtful and nuanced positions" might be an admirable quality in a president, but they're difficult to defend during a campaign.

    A Dean general-election campaign would have contrasted Dean's record with Bush's in three ways: Dean being against the war versus Bush being for it; Dean's record of balancing the Vermont budget while providing health care versus Bush's largest deficits in history with no health care; and a new wrinkle that was only hinted at during the primaries, Dean's mysterious, infrequently mentioned "tax reform" vs. Bush's irresponsible tax cuts. Yes, Dean would have repealed the entire Bush tax cut, the senior adviser said, but he would have proposed replacing it with some Dean tax cuts, including the elimination of payroll taxes on the first $20,000 of income. The message: Bush cuts taxes from the top down, but Dean cuts them from the bottom up. Why didn't Dean introduce this during the primaries, when his tax-hiking ways made some Democrats think he would be an electoral disaster, the second coming of Walter Mondale, in the fall? He wanted to wait until after the Feb. 3 primaries because "he didn't want people to think he was pandering," the adviser said.

    The Dean adviser did go out of his way to insist that he was not criticizing the Kerry campaign. The Republicans "might have destroyed Howard Dean," too, he said, but "I just think Howard would have matched up differently and better." The Dean adviser praised Kerry's maligned convention, which made voters believe that Kerry was a viable commander in chief who was as good as Bush or better on the issues of terrorism and homeland security. "They were in perfect position after the convention to win this thing," he said, quickly adding that he's not saying they've lost it. But then he added, "They basically are hoping that Bush shits the bed in the debates."

    Of course, it's pretty obvious that the Republicans would have run a different campaign against Howard Dean than they did against John Kerry. But that doesn't mean it would have been any less effective. And if Dean couldn't beat Kerry, what exactly would have made him so formidable against President Bush? Would Dean's support for civil unions in Vermont have made gay marriage a much bigger issue in the fall? Was there something in his past that we didn't learn about? Would the aggressive campaign he would have waged in the spring and summer—leaping instantly on every bit of bad news from Iraq, from Abu Ghraib to Fallujah—have backfired? Would Dean have been able to build a campaign that brought together his divided Vermont and D.C. factions? It's impossible to know, though divining that impossibility is exactly what Democratic primary voters charged themselves with this time around.

    Falling in love with Dean all over again ignores what made Democrats fall out of love with him in the first place. An incomplete list: his infuriating stubbornness and refusal to admit mistakes; his lousy white-background TV ad in Iowa; and his shift from a straight-talking, budget-balancing, health-care-providing Vermont governor to the shrieking leader of a cult movement. In Iowa, Dean's poor showing was exacerbated by the fact that he was the second choice of no one. He and Kerry found out that in American democracy, it's better to have a large number of people barely tolerate you than to have a smaller number like you a lot. By the weekend, it will be clear whether Kerry managed to rally a nose-holding majority to his side at Thursday's debate. If not, expect to hear a lot more conversations like this over the next 33 days.


    A few things to post about. Firstly, I made a card for Andrew's dad for Father's Day. I started with a plain pearlescent gold card then added a base layer. This was coloured by using a whole range of inks swirled about on the card then I added sprays of Glitz Spritz, which dry to a wonderful coloured metallic sheen. Then on top I layered another image, a stamp which i bought up in London of an old doorway, surrounded by ancient script - this was stamped in a Distress Ink and then covered in Sepia Accents and allowed to dry before trimming and mounting. Finally, I added some organza ribbon, which I coloured using an ink pad, then tied the knot while incorporating a beautiful chipboard key, in keeping with the medieval theme.
    For Basil's birthday, next week (Basil is married to Claire, Andrew's sister), I started with a deep brown square card. I layered a smaller piece of K & Co patterned brown paper, then got to work on a smaller square piece of white card. Basil is a keen bird watcher, so I used a bird/branch mask (again,bought in London recently) and then worked various soft green and amber inks in random swooshy patterns. I sprayed with Glitz Spritz then removed the masks before applying the heat gun to dry the card. Once dry, I stamped various botanical stamps across the base using assorted Distress inks - I wanted to give the effect of viewing the bird on the branch through fronds of vegetation. Finally I added a birthday greeting.
    Basil and Claire's wedding anniversary is just before Basil's birthday so I made a card for them. I took an A5 card (landscape format) and applied some beautiful glittered paper from the last Docrafts goody bag, featuring roses and butterflies. Then I used my diecutter to cut some squares of co-ordinating papers and layered these on the card. Then I stamped an image of roses (the stamp courtesy of the goody bag) twice using Brushed Corduroy Distress Ink. On the base image, I cut round the stamped card and coloured in the leaves using metallic pencils, then cut the roses from the second stamped image and coloured these, before layering them up on the first image. Then I applied Sepia Accents to the roses, this strengthening the colour and transparent Glossy Accents to the leaves. Once dry, I added a small message on the left of the image - I am really pleased with this and thinks it looks lovely and hope the recipients like it.
    Finally, one of Claire and Basil's sons was born on their wedding anniversary! So it's always a busy week for them with three celebrations going on. I made a card for Alex, starting with a sunny yellow square base card with an attractive zig zag edging. This was layered with an orange paper, then on a piece of white card I added a gorgeous stamped image of four adorable little hedgehogs. I coloured these using a combination of gel pens, pencils and some Stickles and edged the card with some Distress Inks. Finally I added a bow at the bottom and a birthday message. All in all, I was very pleased with the way all the cards turned out.

              Great Expectations   

    PHILADELPHIA—On the Kerry plane Thursday, reporters asked Mike McCurry why the campaign agreed to make the foreign-policy debate first, as the Bush campaign wanted, instead of third, as the Commission on Presidential Debates had scheduled it. "You know, we have to take anything like that and turn it into an opportunity," McCurry said. So, you see it as an opportunity? Not quite: "I'm supposed to lower expectations, not raise them."

    Maybe McCurry should tell the candidate. I counted six times this week that Kerry raised his debate expectations by disparaging President Bush's intelligence or knowledge, seven if you count a comment made by Sen. Joe Biden during a Friday rally here. During his Monday night appearance on David Letterman, Kerry said that during the debates, "George Bush is gonna sit on Dick Cheney's lap," an apparent reference to the widespread Democratic belief that the vice president is the ventriloquist/puppeteer and Bush is the dummy. (At least, I hope that was the reference.) On Tuesday's Live With Regis & Kelly, Kerry said of the just-concluded debate negotiations, "The big hang-up was George Bush wanted a lifeline where he could call," an allusion to Regis Philbin's Who Wants To Be a Millionaire? game show. That night in Orlando, Kerry said that President Bush says he would have gone to war "even if he knew there was no connection of al-Qaida and Sept. 11 and Iraq—which we knew, but even if he knew that." In Columbus on Thursday, Kerry mocked Bush's claim that the CIA was "just guessing" about Iraq in its National Intelligence Estimate by implying that the president didn't understand the nature of the report and hadn't looked at it: "It's called an analysis. And the president ought to read it, and he ought to study it, and he ought to respond to it." On Friday on the campus of the University of Pennsylvania *, Biden compared the two candidates for president by saying, "John Kerry understands and has actually read history." Earlier that morning, during Kerry's war-on-terror speech at Temple University, Kerry noted that the president agreed to testify before the 9/11 commission "only with Vice President Cheney at his side," and he ridiculed Republican claims that a new president wouldn't be able to get more allies involved in Iraq and the war on terror by saying, "I have news for President Bush: Just because you can't do something doesn't mean it can't be done."

    Good lines all—well, except the sitting-in-Cheney's lap one. But was this the week to trot out the Bush-is-an-idiot-controlled-by-Cheney meme? I thought the campaigns were supposed to talk up their opponents before the debates, not deride them. Kerry is Cicero and Bush is Rocky Marciano, the man who has never lost.

    Other than this minor misstep in the expectations game, however, Kerry set himself up well this week for Thursday's debate, which will be the most decisive event in the presidential campaign so far. The foreign-policy debate deserves to go first, because this is a foreign-policy election. At Kerry's town halls, even the ones that are supposed to be about health care or Social Security or the economy, the majority of voters ask him questions about Iraq. Here's one way to think about next week's face-off: Bush and Kerry are running for leader of the free world, not just president of the United States, and both candidates want to cast themselves as a global Abraham Lincoln while defining their opponent as an international version of John C. Calhoun.

    Bush lays claim to the mantle of Lincoln the Emancipator: Like the 16th president, Bush believes that individual liberty trumps state sovereignty (the international version of states' rights). Sure, Saddam Hussein was sovereign, but he was a tyrant and a menace to his people, Bush says, so America's invasion was a just one. Kofi Annan says Bush's invasion of Iraq was a violation of international law, but Bush appeals to a higher law that says that some laws and some rulers are illegitimate. Bush laid out his Lincolnesque doctrine of liberty over sovereignty in his acceptance speech at the Republican convention: "Our nation's founding commitment is still our deepest commitment: In our world, and here at home, we will extend the frontiers of freedom." Bush wants to paint Kerry as a global Calhoun, a man who prefers French sovereignty to Iraqi freedom.

    Kerry, on the other hand, casts himself as Lincoln the preserver of the Union (while at the same time questioning Bush's competence and highlighting the disparity between the president's "fantasy world" ideals and the "world of reality" on the ground). I don't want to overstate this, because the Republican caricature of Kerry as a one-worlder who would let France exert a veto over American security is inaccurate. But Kerry clearly believes in the international structures and institutions that have been created since World War II, and he sees Bush, shall we say, nullifying them. In this version of the story, it's Bush who is Calhoun, the man who would elevate the shortsighted rights of his state over the compact that every state has entered to promote the greater good.

    This analogy, like all historical analogies, is flawed in many ways. It may be particularly unfair to Kerry, who on the stump talks about relying on allies out of pragmatism rather than idealism. But it gets at the factor that I think will determine the winner of next week's debate: Which candidate will be able to present himself as the internationalist and his opponent as the isolationist? Bush says Kerry would turn his back on the people of the world who suffer under tyranny. Kerry says Bush has already turned his back on the world and has replaced dictatorship in Iraq with chaos, not the freedom he claims.

    It will be an uphill battle for Kerry. So far, he's been successful at pointing out the flaws in Bush's policies, but he hasn't convinced enough people that President Kerry's policies would be any better. And Bush's bounce out of the Republican convention showed how attractive the president's principles, if not his policies, are.

    In July, voters seemed to have decided that they'd like to get rid of Bush. But when they turned their attention to his potential replacement, they were disappointed by what they discovered. The Republican convention exploited that disappointment, and now there are more undecided voters than ever—because voters found out they don't like either guy.

    Bush lost the incumbent's referendum, then Kerry lost the one on the challenger. Now we don't know what we want. That's why Thursday will be so critical. For Kerry to win, he needs to argue successfully that liberty and the international order, like strength and wisdom, are not opposing values.

    Correction, Sept. 27, 2004: This article originally said that Biden spoke at the University of Philadelphia. He spoke at the University of Pennsylvania. (Return to corrected sentence.)

              Father, son arrested after alleged altercation   

    A father and son from Taneytown were arrested Saturday after allegedly getting into an altercation on Friday night.

    Roy Shannon White, 49, and Cody Allen White, 23, both of the unit block of Spring Drive, were each charged with one count of second-degree assault and one count of disorderly conduct....

    As the previous post was quite long, I decided to do a fresh post. On Tuesday, QVC had one of their regular Craft Days. Sometimes these are good value (like the aforementioned BP kit) and sometimes they are just fun to dip into and get ideas. This time though I was committed to watching quite avidly as Tim Holtz was appearing, having travelled over from the USA. Tim is an inspirational crafter and with Ranger, is responsible for a range of goodies including alcohol inks, distress inks and all sorts of other great kit, in fabulous colours. He's particularly well known for his "grunge" look but to be fair, many of his techniques and products can be used/enjoyed by any crafter who enjoys messy play. During the craft day they had a selection of goodies from Ranger that were tempting, and as the prices were good, I succumbed. I ordered a selection of 12 Stickles, a fabulous glitter glue in amazing colours which never clogs, drips or spurts. I also ordered a pack which included 3 different Distress Metallic Crackle Paint and matching Distress Stickles. Plus the TSV, which was Tim's new book, bundled with an assortment of goodies, including several products that I had seen before but never actually tried, so figured that now was the time to take the plunge. Previously, when Ranger stuff has been stocked, they've sold out very quickly, so I waited up until midnight on Monday, then ordered via the web, to be sure of getting what I wanted.
    The rest of the craft day went well, as I was relaxed about having my purchases safely bagged, and could enjoy the various demos including lots with Tim and his new book. Fast forward, and on Thursday morning, the first of my parcels arrived. QVC do not bag up separate items - they always deliver them in separate packages - I was very impressed with the speed of delivery and sure enough when I opened it, it was a stack of goodies. The new book is brilliant - loads of tips, techniques and ideas, all very inspiring, both for browsing and for detailed technique following. For instance, I didn't know you could use alcohol inks to colour metal charms, so tried out this on a butterfly charm and it seems to have worked brilliantly.
    On Saturday, we went out for lunch with my great aunt, leaving the dogs in the house. The postman pushed through the letterbox, two Jiffy Bags with the remaining items while we were out, and Andy decided to do what he does sometimes, and attack the post. We are actually in the process of sourcing a mailbox to affix to the side of the house, as we quite often have letters with teeth marks, rips and so on. Anyway, his teeth punctured a pot of Antique Silver Distress Crackle Paint, so when we came home, the hall was a picture. Piles of ripped and munched post, with paint everywhere, including all over the criminal, and a selection of doggy footprints in Antique Silver on the wooden floor, paint all over the hall rug, and worse of all, paint all over the sofa in the living room, which has loose covers. Clearly, having had a good munch, he decided to go and have a lie down on the sofa and rest after all the excitement.
    My feelings were very mixed, to say the least. A combination of laughter (it really did look ridicolous), annoyance at my paint being wasted, and worry over the dog being poisoned by the paint, plus concern over clearing up the mess. We managed to find the pot, and reassuringly it had NON TOXIC written boldly in big letters - did this apply to greyhounds, we wondered? The criminal was bouncing round quite happily when we got home, so it obviously was not a fast acting poison (if at all) so we decided to focus on cleaning up. The hall rug is a complete write off but as it was a very cheap one from Ikea, we are not too worried about that. We stripped off the loose covers from the sofa, and immediately washed them, and worked on the floor - fortunately that came clean immediately. The guilty dog was covered in dried paint on his legs - we've now started calling him Twinkletoes since there have been no ill effects. Unfortunately, however, the paint has not come out from the sofa fabric, so we now need to check our insurance policy to see if it is worth making a claim.
    Today, I've been playing with my new purchases, very happily. Andrew and Twinkletoes went for a run together this afternoon, and enjoyed themselves. I'll probably post more pics as projects get finished. All I can say is that I've started work on a little chipboard book, and am having lots of fun, involving paints, squirts, sprays, rubs, stamps and general fun.


    Quite a bit to update on, some of it overlapping with my other blog. Firstly, I've completed a scrapbook of our trip over to Germany just before Christmas. I had wanted to go for a long time and we had a great time, just doing a long weekend. I took pics and wrote about it in my main blog, but had decided it would make a lovely subject for a scrapbook. I ordered prints using my credits from Photobox (they are an excellent company), they arrived in the New Year, and I've been waiting for the right moment to get started.

    I may have previously mentioned two bottomless Brenda Pinnick kits I bought from QVC about two or three years ago, one Christmas themed, the other more general. Using the general box, I decided to use the 12 x 12 scrapbook. There were lots and lots of matching papers, in various sizes, plus a panoply of brads, ribbons, chipboard shapes and letters, stickers, alphabets and die cut cardboard shapes. Getting it all out meant making a huge mess in the craft room, so once I started on it, I kept going rather than swapping between different activities as I do more often. Having been lavish with the papers and embellishments, I appear to have made no identifiable difference to the box, and in fact when finished, struggled to get it all back in. I also used some papers that I bought a while back for Sarah's 18th - a DCWV stack called "Once upon a Time". The fairytale castles were actually very much like the ones on the Rhine, along with the medieval buildings and general feel, so in some cases these papers were used instead. Along with the photos, I included other mementoes such as our tickets, luggage labels, itinerary, beer mats and so on. I attach some pics of the scrapbook, and a couple of the pages.

    Boola, our recently adopted greyhound, celebrated his 10th birthday a couple of weeks ago. He got sent a fabulous card by our nephews (aged 10,8 and 6) featuring popup rabbits they had drawn. I made a card to send them to say thanks, featuring a photo of Boola, with a thought bubble coming out of the side. I layered it up on some paper scraps, added the photo and bubble with foam tape, then rubbed over the top with Rock Candy Stickles. Next, I punched a hole and added a grommet, then threaded through some blue ribbon, with a chipboard star attached that I'd inked and glittered. Photo attached.


    A combination of things to write about today. A little while ago, I ordered some papercrafting goodies from Cardcraft Plus, in particular some cardmaking supplies for the GRW shop. In their most recent catalogue there were two very pretty sets, one of a Oriental theme (lots of cherry blossom, pretty turquoise and delicate pinks, all with gold foiling) and the other was a very versatile set of butterfly themed papers and cards with a palette of chocolate browns, russets and caramels. Both included lots of die-cut, foiled toppers and labels - so plenty to make quick cards for the shop, but also enough to use as a base for a more creative afternoon.

    Anyway, this week I passed my ECDL and I'll be popping back in next week to say Thank you to my lovely tutor and to return the workbooks I was using. I'll probably also get her either a bottle of wine or a box of chocolates. So, I decided to make her a card using the new sets. After a bit of dithering over which set to use, I plumped for the chocolate butterflies and spread the cardstock over the bed to look at it and choose, before working here in the spare bedroom. Big mistake. While I was working away happily, Andy the greyhound decided to enter the bedroom at high speed, take a flying leap onto the bed and start chewing at the cardstock with great interest and curiosity. I quickly realised what he was doing, dashed in there and we had words. Much chastised, he skulked off in disgrace and I have been considering the damage. I won't now be able to make any A4 cards from the cardstock (unless teethmarks suddenly become an accessory) but with some trimming I'll be able to salvage most of the cards from the wreckage. After that excitement, here's the card pictured above.

    I started with a cream landscape A5 card, and covered it with a piece of the printed background paper in a a lovely chocolate brown. I affixed a Thank you message with foam pads and then pressed out and layered up a pretty decoupage series that came with the kit in a lovely russet brown. Next to this, I attached some more die cut butterflies and finished off with some adhesive gems on the butterflies and a pretty chocolate organza ribbon around the side of the card. And of course the moral of this story is that greyhounds and craft do not mix!

    On the fabric front, I have still not photographed my little bag, but will do so during the week. In the living room, we have a quilt over one of the sofas that I use for snuggling while watching TV or reading or stitching. You may remember I made it from a lovely Moda charm pack from the "At Water's Edge" range. Just after Christmas, Andrew announced (much to my surprise) that he wished to commission a similar quilt for his sofa and that I should proceed with its manufacture. So, at a recent visit to Busy Bees, I purchased a charm pack from Moda, this time in the Mill House Inn range - really pretty florals, in soft dusty pinks, spring greens, tan and some berry colours. My thinking was to make a similar quilt to the one I made for my friend Penny for Christmas, based on a nine patch square with sashing between. Anyway, yesterday afternoon I made up my nine patch blocks and summoned dear husband for an inspection. After looking at them for a bit, he has decided that the square is not going to be big enough and the quilt should be larger. So, I am going to get another charm pack of the same fabric and have an eight block quilt rather than a four block. Deep down I suspec this is so he can wrap up not only himself but any passing greyhound who happens to be sharing the sofa with him..

    I attach some pics of the made-up nine patch blocks completed so far - the colours are really pretty. What I haven't yet decided is whether to leave the blocks as they are or do what I did at Christmas and do the cutting and turning into quarters, making a more complex looking block. Decisions, decisions......


    It's been a busy weekend craft wise. I'll start with the papercrafting. Regular readers of my "life" blog will know we keep in touch with the lady who adopted our beloved foster dog, Murgatroyd, and we met up with her before Christmas for a lovely day out and walk at Pembrey Country Park. We took lots of pics and I promised Rhian that I would send her copies. I uploaded the photos to Photobox, the photo website I use, and we had the prints back, in the early part of the New Year. I made a little wallet for the photos, just from a piece of A4 paper that I folded and then used some invisible tape on the sides. I also stuck a little sticker on the front. Just seems a lot better than sending them loose or in a plastic bag.

    I kept back one of the photos and made it into a little calendar. All I did was layering up of card and paper with some pretty little fabric flowers stuck to the card by using brads and attaching a mini calendar pad to the front, over a strip of ribbon. On the top I affixed a ribbon loop for hanging.

    Then I made a little card to go in with the goodies. Keeping the same palette of browns, yellows and orange, I used a peachy base card, with a strip of pearlescent textured card down the middle, topped with some patterned K & Co paper. Then I took another piece of tan card and stamped the image of the tree on it, which was then coloured in with Sakura pens, one Gelly Roll and one Metallic Gold glaze. This was then mounted on the top. Finally, I affixed some square gemstones in amber colouring.

    Two more cards to share. One is a birthday card for my aunt. I took a K & Co patterned base card, then added a tag, ribbon, and some stick ons. On the bottom, a sticker. Very pleased with it. Also a similar card to say "Thanks, we're coming" for a lovely person we know who just invited us to her book launch (how exciting!!!!). Again, a printed K & Co base card, a sticker and a tag, with some pretty little stickers on the top plus a ribbon which I swiped with an ink pad to turn it an attractive pumpkin colour.

              Kerry's New Movie   

    TORONTO—We're at the point in the campaign when we're supposed to wring our hands over the decline of politics, mourn the lack of coverage of "the issues," and decry the media's focus on personality and the horse race. But my guess is we're about to get mired in the muck of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth all over again. Going Upriver: The Long War of John Kerry, a new documentary by George Butler, hits theaters in the United States on Oct. 1. The film, which had its world premiere here Tuesday evening, is sure to land the Swifties in the news again. For one, the movie is based on Tour of Duty, the Douglas Brinkley hagiography that the Swift Boat vets say incited them to action in the first place.

    More important, Going Upriver seems designed to rebut, one by one, the three campaign ads put out by the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth: one questioning Kerry's heroism during the war, one criticizing his antiwar testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and one condemning his decision to throw his ribbons over a fence in front of the Capitol during an antiwar demonstration. Butler re-edited his film in response to the Swift Boat ads, and he said after the premiere that the movie wasn't finished until Tuesday morning. On the matter of Kerry's conduct during the war itself, Butler has Kerry's "band of brothers" describe his actions on "Silver Star day," and Jim Rassman tells the story of how Kerry saved his life and won the Bronze Star in the process. In addition, numerous speakers talk about how dangerous commanding a Swift Boat was, and how deadly.

    On Kerry's Senate testimony, Butler shows the statements made by veterans at the "Winter Soldier" hearings in Detroit, where veterans confessed to committing atrocities during the war. Some of those claims have been disputed, but the Winter Soldier hearings were the basis for Kerry's statements about atrocities before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Butler shows veterans talking about shooting children and gang raping a woman in public. In the film, Kerry protests that he didn't personally see anyone chop off someone's head, but he believes that the U.S. government's policies in Vietnam—such as burning the homes of noncombatants, or creating "free-fire zones" in which all Vietnamese were deemed to be the enemy—were in violation of the laws of war.

    As for Kerry's tossing of his ribbons, Butler spends a long section of the film showing veterans angrily and defiantly hurling their medals toward the Capitol. The sources interviewed for Going Upriver discuss how "painful" the protest was, how it was "terribly difficult," "extremely hard," etc. Perhaps to dismiss the charge that Kerry's protest was somehow phony because he tossed his ribbons instead of his medals, a speaker points out that some veterans threw their medals, others threw their ribbons, and others tossed their citations or even the boxes that their medals came in. Kerry was almost the last man to stand before the microphone during the protest, and according to Tom Oliphant, he "kind of lobbed" his contribution over the fence and walked away.

    During this scene, Butler includes a photograph of Kerry shoving his ribbons through the fence that he left out of the film's companion book. The next shot is the one of a crumpled Kerry, being consoled by Julia Thorne. The demonstration was designed to illustrate that "the sacrifices that we went through were for nothing," says Bobby Muller, one of the Vietnam Veterans Against the War. "That's the bitter pill, and I think that's the harder pill to take, frankly," than coming back and saying their service was necessary for the continuation of freedom and the American way. Throughout the film, Muller is Kerry's most effective advocate, the man who most persuasively argues that what Kerry did when he returned from the war was not just defensible but morally correct.

    Swift Boat Vet obsessives will note that there's nothing about the (unfair) criticism of Kerry's Purple Hearts or the fact that Kerry was likely in Cambodia in January or February instead of the previous Christmas. More important than those details, however, are Butler's other omissions. For example, in Tour of Duty Brinkley quotes some of Kerry's crewmates talking about their initial anger at Kerry when they learned he was leading antiwar demonstrations. Though they later came to understand his decision—and believe that he was right—at first they felt betrayed. Butler, however, shows only David Alston, who says he was glad to see Kerry speak out. On the other hand, Going Upriver is honest about something the Kerry campaign isn't: The film bothers to point out that when Kerry volunteered for Swift boat duty, he wasn't asking for one of the war's most dangerous jobs. At the time, the boats were engaged in coastal patrols, checking the papers of commercial fisherman.

    One more Swift Boat-related bit of news from the premiere: During the Q&A with Butler after the film was over, a member of the audience asked him why he didn't include anything about Christmas in Cambodia. Butler explained that it's very difficult to know whether Kerry was in Cambodia, then changed the subject to the lack of credibility of John O'Neill, the co-author of Unfit for Command. (O'Neill appears in Going Upriver when he is dredged up by Richard Nixon and Charles Colson to be a public-relations counterweight to Kerry and the VVAW.) O'Neill, Butler pointed out, denied ever being in Cambodia despite telling Nixon otherwise. But in the course of telling the story, Butler seemed to imply that he, or someone on his crew, leaked the tape of O'Neill's comment to the news media. "We found a Nixon White House tape," Butler began, before stopping himself. "Or, there is in existence a White House tape ..."

              Shrum Strikes Back?   

    ALLENTOWN, PA.—The Washington Post's Mark Leibovich profiled Kerry adviser Bob Shrum in a piece Friday that focused on the so-called "Shrum Curse," the idea that Shrum is the losingest great political strategist of modern times. Leibovich didn't bring up William Jennings Bryan or the Buffalo Bills, but he does compare Shrum to Kerry's favorite baseball team, the Boston Red Sox. Ten speechwriters at the Democratic convention, Leibovich writes, considered wearing "Reverse the Curse" T-shirts emblazoned with a picture of Shrum. The article's headline: "Loss Leader: At 0-7, Adviser Bob Shrum Is Well Acquainted With the Concession Speech."

    Ouch. It gets worse. Here are some of the piece's highlights: "Shrum's career-long slump in presidential campaigns, a well-catalogued losing streak that runs from George McGovern to Al Gore. … the ["Reverse the Curse"] slogan endures as a joke among Kerry staffers. … Shrum's 0-7 win-loss record in presidential elections has become ensconced in the psyches of the campaigns he orchestrates. …. Kerry is sputtering … His campaign has been called listless and unfocused, words that were also applied to Shrum's last presidential enterprise, the Gore campaign (a forbidden comparison within Kerry headquarters). … But curses sometimes have prosaic explanations. … critics started to rehash old complaints about Shrum. They say he relies too heavily on populist rhetoric, … that his aggressiveness led to backbiting within the campaign. ... James Carville harpooned Shrum relentlessly to reporters at the Republican convention last week. Clinton himself was critical of the campaign's reluctance to attack Bush—a position Shrum had advocated—in a phone call to Kerry … Shrum's brand of old-style liberalism—steeped in the tradition of his political patron, Ted Kennedy—is anathema to the centrist, New Democrat ethic that got Clinton elected twice. … 'You tend to listen extra hard to Clinton people,' says a mid-level Kerry aide who didn't want to be identified because he's not an official spokesman. 'They've actually won one of these.' "

    The one thing Leibovich couldn't nail down was Shrum's role in the Kerry campaign after the elevation of John Sasso and Michael Whouley and the infusion of Clinton operatives like Joe Lockhart. How much power does Shrum have now? Does he still have the candidate's ear? "Shrum is either in Kerry's doghouse, or his influence has been diffused by the high-level additions. Ultimately, though, campaign sources say, Shrum is a survivor" who has "worked strenuously to cultivate Lockhart." Leibovich also writes that Kerry feels loyal to Shrum for helping him to defeat William Weld in 1996.

    So, Shrumologists take note: During a rally here on Friday, the same day Leibovich's critical profile appeared, Kerry inserted a Shrumian flourish into his standard stump speech. For a few minutes, Kerry sounded an awful lot like Al Gore during his much-criticized—and Shrum-penned—"people vs. the powerful" acceptance speech at the 2000 Democratic convention. The business-friendly Kerry  of Labor Day vanished, replaced by a Wall Street-bashing economic populist.

    Kerry spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter said Kerry's remarks weren't significant. "It didn't strike me as anything unusual," she said. "It's not a 'people vs. the powerful.' " Judge for yourself: There's a theme that runs through "everything I just talked about," Kerry explained. "Why aren't we importing drugs from Canada? Why did they take that out? Why did we refuse to allow Medicare to be able to negotiate [bulk drug prices] so you would lower your taxes? Why has the tax burden of the average American family gone up while the tax burden of the richest people in America has gone down? Why is it that when we're fighting to have alternative and renewable energy, we wind up with an energy bill that's written for the oil and gas companies? Why is it that when American citizens are losing their health care by the millions, it's the HMOs and the companies that keep getting fed?" Kerry mentions all of these things frequently on the stump, but this time he punctuated his critique with an allusion to the rhetoric of Al Gore's "forbidden" campaign: "I'll tell you why: because this administration exists for the purpose of serving the powerful and the moneyed, and we need to restore … the voices of America, the real Americans who built this country and make it strong. We need to step up and fight."

    Was Kerry paying a final tribute to the dear, departed Shrum? Or was Shrum serving notice to the Clinton faction that he won't disappear without a fight? Both? Neither? Was it just a coincidence? What is the sound of one hand clapping? If a Shrum falls in the forest, does it make a sound?

              cómo usar la grabadora de voz   
    Cómo usar la Grabadora de voz La Grabadora de voz es una aplicación para grabar conferencias, conversaciones y otros sonidos (anteriormente se llamaba Grabadora de sonidos). Presiona el botón grande Grabar y agrega marcadores para identificar momentos clave conforme grabas o reproduces sonidos. Después, puedes recortar, cambiar el nombre o compartir las grabaciones, que se … "cómo usar la grabadora de voz" irakurtzen jarraitu

    Firstly, I've finished the baby sampler. Photo attached. I am very pleased with it, and will be going down to Ikea to buy a simple frame for it later this week (we're fortunate to have an Ikea in Cardiff and I enjoy shopping there for homewares). It will also need to be pressed very gently before framing too. Then it will be ready for the show and then onward dispatch as soon as the baby arrives - which should be within the next ten days -although first babies seem notorious for not arriving on schedule. The sampler was a pleasurable stitch - small enough to make progress easy and an excellent compromise on blocks of colour. Enough variety to make it interesting but not so much that progress is painfully slow and makes you feel like you are stitching an outbreak of measles.

    I also attach two cards I made this evening. Since we moved back to Cardiff, I've wanted to invite my friend Penny up for lunch and to meet the hounds - she lives down in Carmarthenshire with her two lurchers on a farm. Due to Penny's work commitments (medieval re-enactment with horses and weapons) she works a lot during the summer and it's always difficult to find time in her schedule to meet up. However, by great good fortune, I've been able to find a Saturday in about a fortnight when she's free and is coming up for lunch, along with another greyhound friend, Paula who lives round the corner from us. Paula and Penny know each other and get on well, so it should be a really lovely day. I thought it would be nice to confirm the invitation by post and so made these two cards. The beautiful die-cuts are from K & Co, I bought them yesterday down at Hobbycraft when I went there to top up on clear cellophane card bags. My annual Christmas card making will begin in earnest very soon, both for the greyhound shop and for selling on the greyhound stall.

              Kerry Returns to Form   

    DES MOINES—The most interesting thing to happen with the Kerry campaign Wednesday was an exchange between Stephanie Cutter, a Kerry spokeswoman, and CNN's Candy Crowley. Disgruntled reporters gathered around Cutter after Kerry's anticipated but disappointing speech in Cincinnati that criticized President Bush's handling of the war in Iraq. The speech had two memorable moments, both of which occurred before it really began: the announcement beforehand that Peter Frampton was on hand, and the shouts of a protester—"You said you committed atrocities. You said you burned villages"—who was silenced when the man standing next to him put him in a headlock. After the speech, Kerry spokesman David Wade said the protester was a man named Mike Russell, who Wade said was the Bush-Cheney chairman in Bracken County, Ky., during the 2000 election. "He is now, coincidentally, with the Swift Boat Veterans," Wade added.

    Nothing Kerry said in Cincinnati could compensate for the blunder he made the day before when he stood before cameras on the tarmac of the Cincinnati airport and expressed his sorrow for the 1,000th American casualty in Iraq. "More than 1,000 of America's sons and daughters have now given their lives on behalf of their country, on behalf of freedom, in the war on terror," Kerry said. The war on terror? Oops. The mistake was part of the natural reversion to the mean of the Kerry candidacy. After the successful day and a half of campaigning that followed his conversation with President Clinton, the usual Kerry—the New Old Kerry—was back. Kerry took no questions after making his mystifying "war on terror" comment. Crowley called out, "Senator, you've been saying that it's 'wrong war, wrong place, wrong time.' What does that mean about these deaths?" but Kerry, in a typical maneuver, just walked away. It's been more than five weeks since Kerry last took questions at a press conference, or an "avail," as it's called.

    So, Crowley asked Cutter if she could explain what Kerry meant. Short answer: No. Long answer: Cutter said Kerry was referring to something Donald Rumsfeld said Tuesday about the increase in terrorists in Iraq after the war. "There were not terrorists in Iraq before we went," Cutter explained (incorrectly), but there are now. Kerry was just "repeating what Rumsfeld said," Cutter continued. So, Crowley asked, Iraq is now part of the war on terror? "No. That's not what I'm saying," Cutter said. "Should he have clarified it, said it differently? Maybe. But the point remains the same. There was no terrorism before we went to war. There is now terrorism there." But Democratic orthodoxy is that the war on terror and the war in Iraq are distinct, Crowley said. Cutter replied, "And he agrees with that." Crowley: "Had he stayed for questions, we could have clarified that."

    Kerry should have said, hey, I misspoke, I was trying to express my sympathy for all the Americans who have lost their lives in the broader war on terror, not just the 1,000-plus who have died in the war in Iraq. But instead the campaign has concocted this preposterously complicated explanation, saying yes he meant to say it, but no, he thinks Iraq is not part of the war on terror. What?

    The other head-scratcher uttered by Kerry in the past two days came Wednesday in Greensboro, N.C. There, in response to a question from a woman about the health problems caused by mold and indoor air contamination—and her complaint, "There's not one agency in this government that has come forward" to deal with the problem—Kerry endorsed the creation of a new federal department. "What I want to do, what I'm determined to do, and it's in my health-care plan, is refocus America on something that can reduce the cost of health care significantly for all Americans, which is wellness and prevention," Kerry said. So far, so good. But then, "And I intend to have not just a Department of Health and Human Services, but a Department of Wellness." Again, what? Apparently this idea comes from Teresa Heinz Kerry, who told the Boston Herald in January 2003 that she would, in the Herald's words, "be an activist first lady, lobbying for a Department of Wellness that would stress preventive health." Oh, boy. Preventive health is a fine idea, but do we need a new agency—I assume it's not Cabinet-level—to handle it?

    Kerry ended his day in Iowa, the state that launched him to the nomination of the Democratic Party. The traveling press headed to the Hotel Fort Des Moines to spend the night. At the hotel, I came across an inauspicious if ultimately meaningless piece of trivia on an information sheet given to hotel guests. Three presidential candidates, according to the hotel, celebrated their victories in the Iowa caucuses at the Hotel Fort Des Moines. Two of them, Walter Mondale in 1984 and Bob Dole in 1996, went on to win the nominations of their parties (the third was George Bush in 1980). In their general-election match-ups, Mondale won one state and the District of Columbia, while Dole won 41 percent of the popular vote. John Kerry? He too celebrated caucus night at the Hotel Fort Des Moines this January, but the hotel hasn't added him to its list yet. Maybe it's afraid of being a three-time loser.

              preguntar a cortana en microsoft edge   
    Preguntar a Cortana en Microsoft Edge Para obtener más información sobre algo que veas en una página web en Microsoft Edge, selecciona una palabra, frase o imagen: haz clic con el botón derecho (o mantén presionado) en la selección; y, a continuación, selecciona Preguntar a Cortana. Cortana también puede ofrecerse espontáneamente para ayudarte cuando navegas, … "preguntar a cortana en microsoft edge" irakurtzen jarraitu

    A few things to update on. July of course is when I disappear from the planet to immerse myself in Tour World - all other things become secondary to that. This year's Tour finishes this Saturday so I will begin to re-emerge from my hibernation then. I'll start with some cross-stitch. One of Andrew's colleagues is expecting her first baby very shortly (approximately three weeks) so I decided to stitch a small sampler for her and her husband and the new arrival (sex unknown). This is a very pretty Joan Elliott design from a small supplement that came with the World of Cross Stitch some time ago - I like Joan Elliott's designs very much. As you can see I am stitching it on a pretty pale blue aida which has been dyed in a way to appear like clouds with little swirls of lighter and darker colours - very attractive. The design is predominantly in soft pastels and won't become distinctive until I add the backstitch at the end. There will also be beads to add which should add a very nice finishing touch. The sampler is small enough for me to feel as though I am making good progress and I am enjoying stitching it. Keeping my fingers crossed, I should have it finished, pressed, framed and a matching card stitched and made up by the time the baby arrives. I will probably pop down to Ikea for a simple frame, likely plain white wood.
    Also pictured are some ATCs that I made recently for a Docrafts colour swap in pale blue. Following the wonderful day in May over at Barry, I have fallen in love with the technique of blending inks using cotton wool and in this case I started with two plain white cards. Both were coloured using pale blue ink and then a little bit of darker blue added round the edges to give an attractive shaded effect. On one, I stamped and glittered some birds, the word "Love" and some swirly motifs. On the other, I used some butterfly stickers, glitter glue, ribbon and a rose bud bow to finish the decoration. These were posted a couple of days ago, and I now have a list of other swaps waiting for me to get stuck into.


    A nice assortment of projects in this post.
    First up, another colour swap on the Do crafts ATC forum. The theme was amber/tangerine/orange. For the first card, I covered it in a pretty orange floral print paper that was a part of my goody bag from the recent ATC day in Barry. Then I added a strip of yellow self adhesive ribbons covered in orange flowers, and then added some orange toned die cut flower shapes. Finally, I finished off with a couple of orange butterfly gems that I carefully glued on. For the other two, I took two ATC base cards, that I coloured using shaving foam at the Barry ATC event, in shades of yellow, orange and red. Thed edges were coloured with a red ink pad, then I stamped both with an Anna Griffin paisley stamp in red ink. Finally I added some pretty K & Co adhesive butterfly and bird stickers - in gorgeous rich colours. And off they went! Will be receiving my swapped cards early next week.
    Secondly, a 30th birthday card for my friend Rebecca in Cardiff. I took two pieces of card from a DCWV box, one scalloped and turquoise, the other plain yellow and layered them up. On the card, I added a piece of Laura Ashley printed paper, with lots of bright turquoise and yellow in the mix. I then put a yellow ribbon across the card, and used my pokey tool to punch a hole, allowing me to add a yellow flower with blue brad. Finally, I used a bright blue ink to stamp Happy Birthday on a piece of yellow card and added that with 3d foam pads to the front of the card. It was Rebecca's birthday yesterday and she loved the card. We are going out with her to celebrate on Saturday night - about 25 friends all going for pizza.
    Finally, a cross-stitched design for Father's Day, for my FIL. This is a Joan Elliott design, and is great. It came with a CD of designs that was a giveaway about two years ago with a copy of Cross Stitcher magazine, and is a reliable source of attractive designs for all sorts of occasions. I liked this cockerel - something so cheerful about the colours. It was a pleasure to stitch, the design coming together very nicely and with only a few fractional stitches. It was mounted in the card tonight and will be hitting the post first thing tomorrow morning.

              Another networking puzzle   

    After all the michegas about AT&T last week, I decided to order a second Internet connection. I was pretty happy with their high speed DSL, but if they're going to gang up on customers with the record industry, I want to be sure I have an exit planned out.

    So I ordered a Comcast network interface. It should arrive in a few days.

    The question is can I have both network interfaces running on the same LAN?

    I was thinking if I plug the Comcast box into a G4 desktop that has two Ethernet jacks, while the other is plugged into the big switch I bought a few weeks ago (and it's working great, btw) that's connected into the DSL line, that somehow all my computers would be on both nets at the same time?

    I figured some of the network gods tuned into this station may have some ideas.

    Is there any way to make use of two net connections on one LAN? Or does it necessarily mean two separate local nets?

    Comment here, please.

    And sorry for destroying our culture, Andrew. smile


    In 1984, George Orwell referred to a characteristic called Doublethink - where a person could hold two contradictory ideas but not object. I feel rather like this about Christmas. Don't get me wrong - I absolutely adore the festive season. My already tenuous hold on taste is abandoned gleefully and I enjoy going wild with decorations, gifts, crafts, cooking, entertaining and general merrymaking. However, and this is the sticker, I loathe going into shops in August and finding the shelves filling up with Christmas puddings and cards. To me Christmas should be celebrated and anticipated at the end of the year - shopping and posting should be in darkness and cold, not sunshine. Now here's the doublethink - as a crafter, you simply cannot start too early. All that merrymaking means that it is without doubt the busiest time of the year yet it is also the time when you need to create things like cards and gifts. So to sum up, I am happy to start early for my own crafting but throw a major hissy fit if I so much as sniff something festive in a shop before the end of October.
    In this Orwellian spirit, I illustrate the point with two little cross-stitched designs, just completed that will be mounted into cards. They are both by Margaret Sherry who designs frequently for magazines. For the little robin, I used a blending filament along with the dark thread for the backstitch - this gives it a nice twinkle. For the hedgehog, I used a rayon thread for the star - this gives a luxurious finish. On both, I used Thread Heaven for the first time. I have often seen it advertised in magazines as an aid to using metallics, rayons and so on. Having bought some, I tried it out on these small projects and I was completely blown away. It makes using these threads a breeze - normally the air would be blue as they got knotted, tangled, wouldn't thread and so on. Instead, I glided smoothly through - if you haven't tried it, I can recommend it.
    I am hoping to build up a small stash of these little Christmas designs for mounting into cards throughout the year, thus avoiding too much late panic by the end of November! Well, that's the plan, anyway. I'll keep this updated as more are added.

              Playing to Strength   

    NEW YORK—Inside Madison Square Garden, Tuesday's schedule promised another day of moderation, with Laura Bush and Arnold Schwarzenegger following Monday's tag-team of John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. But outside the hall, among the protesters, Tuesday is the day marked off for the hard-core left, for the anarchists and communists and the man at Union Square who is calling for American soldiers to rise up in mutiny and frag their commanding officers. Except at this convention, even the anarchists are moderates.

    At Union Square, where Tuesday's "day of action" begins at 4 p.m., a small crowd gathers to block off the entrance to the park in defiance of police orders. "Ladies and gentlemen, you have to remove yourselves from the entrance," says a cop in front of a phalanx of shield-bearing officers. The crowd, which had been chanting, "Go arrest Bush! Go arrest Bush!" decides to adjust its message. The new chant: "The police deserve a raise! The police deserve a raise!" Who says anarchists aren't politically savvy? When trying to win over an audience, abandon the red-meat rhetoric and instead reach out to independent swing cops.

    The protesters and convention speakers have a lot in common, in fact, including a preference for empty slogans and false choices. But more important, they both believe that showing resolve is the most important political act. The protesters believe that if enough of them are willing to lie down in the streets and get arrested—and if they do it over and over and over again—the American people will be persuaded to consider their point of view. The convention speakers agree that doing something over and over and over again, being unwavering and unchangeable, is the best way to pull Americans to your side.

    California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Tuesday speaker with the most, er, movie-star appeal, says that "perseverance" is the quality he admires most about President Bush: "He's a man of inner strength. He is a leader who doesn't flinch, doesn't waver, and does not back down." Sure, the president led the country into an unpopular war, Schwarzenegger says, but that's a good thing! "The president didn't go into Iraq because the polls told him it was popular. In fact, the polls said just the opposite. But leadership isn't about polls. It's about making decisions you think are right and then standing behind those decisions." Schwarzenegger echoes what Monday night's final speaker, Rudy Giuliani, said: "There are many qualities that make a great leader but having strong beliefs, being able to stick with them through popular and unpopular times, is the most important characteristic of a great leader."

    Now, that can't possibly be right. Surely Giuliani and Schwarzenegger believe that having the correct beliefs is more important than sticking by your beliefs, no matter how wrong you are. Sticking by your beliefs is probably the most overrated leadership trait. All great politicians are flip-floppers, including President Bush.

    The biggest fib the president says on the stump is, "When I say something, I mean it." Did he mean it when he said that no matter what the whip count, he would ask for a second vote at the Security Council before going to war with Iraq? Did he mean it when he was against a Department of Homeland Security? Did he mean it when he opposed the creation of a 9/11 commission? Did he mean it when he opposed McCain-Feingold? Did he mean it when he said troops shouldn't be used for nation-building? Did he mean it when he said he planned to use his presidency to strengthen international alliances? Does he mean it when he says, "It's the people's money, not the government's money"? If so, then why does he spend so much of it?

    Up to now, the Kerry campaign has elected not to use this inconsistent record to undermine the Republican claim that President Bush is a man of great resolve. Instead, they've decided to buttress the idea. The president is stubborn, unyielding, Kerry says. He's not flexible enough.

    Kerry's approach plays into liberals' fantasies about themselves. Liberals think they're smarter, more thoughtful, more nuanced than conservatives. They think they're more aware of the complexities and ambiguities in life. They're not inconsistent; they're Emersonian. Kerry tried to take advantage of this at the Democratic Convention when he said that he understands that some things are complicated. Bush's response has been to say, as he does often, "There is nothing complicated about supporting our troops."

    Howard Dean got it right when he said that people don't like President Bush because they agree with his policies. They like him because they think he's a strong leader. Unless Democrats can undermine that belief, they don't have a chance of regaining the presidency. The Kerry campaign may finally be learning this. When Bush said that he now believes the nation actually can win the war on terror (despite saying otherwise previously), the Kerry campaign e-mailed a press release with the headline, "Bush: Against Winning the War on Terror Before He Was for It." Maybe they've learned that Kerry can't blunt Bush's strength on national security without making at least some people think the president is a flip-flopping "politician." You don't beat your opponent by listening to his message, nodding, and saying, I agree.


    A quick update on some recent ATCS. These are for a Distressed swap, on Do Crafts. Two were for the swap, and one was a RAK for the organiser. As her name begins with an N, I started with a plain white card which I coloured using an Adirondack Lemonade ink pad. I then spritzed it with a Glimmer spray. Then added some crumpled Coredinations card in beige, also spritzed, across the middle part of the card. On the right border I stamped a floral border in dark pink and added some mini brads at the bottom of the Coredination in cream, beige and dark grey. The letter N has stripes in pink, beige, grey and similar colours so was added along with a little butterfly sticker.
    For the two swap cards, the first was covered with a piece of distressed paper we made at the recent ATC day in Barry. Over this I applied some flowers, attached with brads and then alongside I stamped and embossed the words Lots of Love and a pretty heart.
    The second card was also one that started life in Barry - being one of the ones I coloured using shaving foam, in tones of coral, yellow and pink, like a tequila sunrise. Over this I applied some crumpled, torn Coredinations card, then spritzed with a pink glimmer spray. I worked round the edges of the card with a dark red ink pad. After drying the spray with a heat gun, I stamped on pretty dark pink flourishes at random and the word Friendship in black. Finally, I added a vintage metal butterfly embellishment, affixed with mini brads.

              Talk like Dick Tracy on Samsung's new smartwatches   
    Both models have built-in GPS, four gigabytes of storage (for music and other media) and are said to be water- and dust-resistant.
              Edwards Buries the Hatchet   

    RACINE, Wis.—"If you're looking for the candidate who does the best job of attacking other Democrats, I am not your guy," John Edwards told appreciative crowds during the Democratic primaries. But senator, what about attacking Republicans?

    Mr. Positive needs to prove that he can go negative, or he's in danger of turning into the second coming of Joe Lieberman. When I followed Wesley Clark's campaign in New Hampshire this past December, Clark strategistChris Lehane complained about Lieberman's high-minded refusal to go negative against Bush and Cheney in 2000. As a result, Lehane said, Al Gore had to be his own hatchet man, and Gore's unfavorability ratings soared. Lieberman's jaunty smile while Dick Cheney eviscerated him during the 2000 vice presidential debate didn't endear him to Democrats, either.

    Edwards isn't in Lieberman's class yet, but as the Democratic Party's vice presidential nominee, he needs to jettison his carefully crafted persona as the smiling man of optimism who disdains "tired old hateful politics." During a multicandidate primary, the smilestrategy made a lot of sense. But as John Kerry's running mate in a two-man race for the presidency, Edwards' job is to engage in tired old hateful politics so that Kerry doesn't have to. That's what veeps do. And so far, Edwards hasn't been up to the task.

    Edwards' day begins Monday morning in Racine, Wis., at a town hall designed to highlight upcoming changes in overtime regulations. He prefaces his remarks with a brief statement about the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth controversy that has dominated the last couple weeks of the presidential campaign. Edwards must know that, for better or worse, these words will air on the cable networks and appear in the next day's news stories. The Swift boat controversy has become such a pervasive feature of the campaign that Edwards doesn't even need to explain what he's talking about.

    Edwards launches into his speech with a Liebermanesque, more-in-sorrow-than-in-anger critique. He contrasts the Democratic campaign's "positive vision, optimistic vision, hopeful vision about what's possible in America" with the Republicans' "relentless negative attacks" against them. "And I want to say a word about those attacks," he says. "No. 1, the claim that John Kerry did not serve this country honorably in Vietnam is a lie," proven false by news organizations and Kerry's comrades in Vietnam. "The second thing that has become clearer is that those ads are being financed by and pushed by friends of George W. Bush," he continues. Third, Edwards points out that "this is the same kind of smear campaigning and tactics that we saw against John McCain back in the 2000 presidential primary."

    Edwards then gets to the heart of his complaint. He wants the president to say three little words: "Stop these ads." He says, "We're not asking the president to give us the same old rhetoric, that John Kerry's service was honorable, you know, that we're proud of his service in Vietnam. That's the same thing he was saying about John McCain when they were smearing him back in 2000." Then Edwards delivers his toughest line: "No, these ads were intended, and have been running now for about three weeks, they were intended to attack the character of John Kerry. In fact, they've shown us something about the character of George W. Bush."

    But instead of elaborating on what we've learned about the president's character over the past three weeks or, even better, instead of making a careful lawyerly rebuttal of the veterans' charges, Edwards meekly says that hope is on the way. "We hope the president finally steps to the plate and does what he ought to do. All of us hope that."

    I admit I'm not sure exactly what Edwards should say to respond to the veterans, but asking President Bush to condemn the Swift boat ads isn't sufficient. For one, Bush has shown that he isn't willing to do so. In fact, Bush is adroitly using the group's existence to criticize the Kerry-Edwards campaign's reliance on their own 527 groups. The line of attack that Edwards is currently taking against Bush is allowing the president to turn this into a pox-on-both-houses controversy. But if both sides are diseased, the Democrats are infecting the campaign with chicken pox while the Swift boat vets are spreading the political version of the stuff that settlers gave to Indians in blankets.

    But any tactic would be better than begging Bush for mercy. Stop asking Bush to condemn the ads. Take the fight to the Swift boat vets themselves. Point out that the burden of proof is on Kerry's critics to prove their claims true, not on Kerry to prove them false. Point out that the U.S. military agrees with Kerry. Attack the president for not contradicting the smears when they're repeated by voters at "Ask President Bush" forums. Stop asking and start telling.

    In the long run, the controversy could help Kerry by giving him a valid excuse to run Vietnam ads for the duration of the campaign. I still think it helps Kerry anytime the national conversation topic is John Kerry's service in Vietnam. But it has to be a conversation, not a monologue. And opening a second conversation with President Bush isn't helping. In fact, it seems to be hurting.

    Kerry and Edwards are responding to Bush in the exact same way that John McCain responded in 2000 during the South Carolina primary, by attempting to publicly shame Bush into apologizing. It's a mistake. The whole McCain complex that imbues the Edwards attack on Bush is a mistake. Yes, John McCain is a Vietnam veteran, and so is John Kerry. Yes, McCain's service was smeared by allies of George W. Bush, and now the same thing is happening to John Kerry. But it's worth remembering that John McCain lost a race to George W. Bush. And if this keeps up, so will John Kerry.

              Looking Backward   

    MANKATO, Minn.—After watching President Bush speak for only a couple of hours on the 2004 stump, it's easy to see the main tenets of his re-election campaign: My opponent is un-American, or at least less American than me and you. My opponent, much like Al Gore, doesn't know who he is. My opponent is a tax-hiking, big-government liberal. Worse, he wants to ask other countries for permission for America to defend itself against its enemies. Last, and most important, my wife is better than his wife.

    What you don't hear from President Bush's stump speech, or from his surrogates, is what he plans to do were he given another four years as president. The problem is particularly glaring on matters of foreign policy. There are glimmers of a domestic agenda in the president's two campaign events Wednesday: He wants to reform America's high schools, increase math and science education, and increase the use of the Internet in schools. He wants more ethanol subsidies. He wants to make health care more available and affordable. He wants less regulation. He likes community colleges. He wants workers to be able to acquire flex time and comp time in lieu of overtime pay.

    Bush also gives his audiences a rehash of the greatest hits from his 2000 campaign mantras. He likes tort reform and dislikes "frivolous lawsuits." (A favorite line of Bush crowds: "You cannot be pro-patient and pro-doctor and pro-trial lawyer at the same time. You have to choose. My opponent made his choice, and he put him on the ticket.") He wants private Social Security accounts for younger workers. He likes marriage and the family, which always gets him a big cheer, because what it really means is he's against gay marriage. He's for a "culture of life," "judges who faithfully interpret the law instead of legislating from the bench," and a "culture of responsibility." Not to mention the responsibility society and the ownership society. He's still against the soft bigotry of low expectations. And of course, he wants everyone to love their neighbor just like you'd like to be loved yourself.

    Bush doesn't talk much about the future. He talks about the past. The biggest portions of Bush's speech are spent mounting a vigorous defense of his presidency. When Bush's campaign foundered in New Hampshire four years ago, he retooled his strategy in response to John McCain and began billing himself as a "reformer with results." He's not using that slogan yet, but the rhetoric is similar. "It's not enough to advocate reform," he says. "You have to be able to get it done." The closing section of his speech ends with the mantra, "Results matter." On education, health care, the economy, farms, and security, Bush concludes by saying, "Results matter." Of his Medicare prescription drug benefit, Bush says, "Leaders in both political parties had promised prescription drug coverage for years. We got the job done."

    Bush spends the longest amount of time defending his policies after Sept. 11. He takes credit for the creation of the Homeland Security Department (one of those things that Bush voted against before he voted for it), and he takes pride in the Patriot Act. Afghanistan has gone from being the "home base of al-Qaida" to being a "rising democracy." Pakistan, once a "safe transit point for terrorists," is now an ally. Saudi Arabia, he says, "is taking the fight to al-Qaida." Libya has given up its quest for weapons of mass destruction.

    Most of all, Bush defends the war in Iraq. He repeats the litany of reasons for going to war: Saddam was defying the will of the United Nations, he harbored terrorists, he funded suicide bombers, he used weapons of mass destruction against his own people. "In other words, we saw a threat," Bush says. "Members of the United States Congress from both political parties, including my opponent, looked at the intelligence and came to the same conclusion."

    What Bush doesn't acknowledge is what went wrong: The WMD were never found. We weren't welcomed as liberators. Oil revenues haven't paid for the war. It wasn't a cakewalk. What went wrong? Why? Given four more years, what does Bush plan to do about it? He hasn't told us yet, other than suggesting "more of the same."

    "Every incumbent who asks for your vote has got to answer one central question, and that's 'Why?'" Bush says. "Why should the American people give me the high privilege of serving as your president for four more years?" The answer Bush gives to that question is his record. He says he deserves re-election because of what he has already done. At Wednesday's first event, in Davenport, Iowa, U.S. Rep. Jim Nussle embodies this attitude when he introduces Bush to the crowd. "There is no one I would have wanted to be at the helm of this country these last four years than you," Nussle says.

    Bush and Nussle are asking the wrong question. The real question an incumbent faces is, what now? What's next? So far, Bush isn't telling. A president's record matters, but the reason it matters is because it has predictive value. Bush's defenders say he is a transformational figure, that he's willing to take on big problems and challenges. Wouldn't you like to know what Bush believes those big problems and challenges would be in foreign policy over the next four years? Are there gathering threats that, like Iraq, he thinks need to be tackled "before they materialize"? The president says that is the lesson of Sept. 11, that the nation must confront its security problems pre-emptively. Where else does he plan to apply that lesson? Does he plan to tell us?

    After the 2002 midterm elections, when Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill objected to another round of tax cuts for the rich, Vice President Cheney told O'Neill to discard his worries. We won the midterm elections, Cheney said. "This is our due." As much as liberals dislike President Bush's record over the past four years, it's the prospect of another four years that terrifies them. What they want to know—what keeps them awake at night—is what President Bush hasn't answered yet: What are you going to do next? This time, what will be your due?

              The Cheese Stands Alone   

    BOSTON—Throughout his presidential campaign, John Kerry has relied on a team of salesmen to make the case for why voters should elect him as the next man to occupy the Oval Office. Even before the arrival of John Edwards as his running mate, Kerry seemed to know that he needed a charismatic advocate by his side at all times. In Iowa, Christie Vilsack, the wife of Hawkeye State Gov. Tom Vilsack, charmed the crowds at Kerry events, and the surprise arrival of this-man-saved-my-life Jim Rassman cinched the caucuses for Kerry. In New Hampshire, it was Bay State neighbor Teddy Kennedy who entertained the audience, while Kerry was content to play master of ceremonies to a cavalcade of guest stars. In effect, the first three days of the Democratic convention take the conceit of the standard Kerry campaign event to its logical conclusion, by eliminating the candidate entirely.

    Unfortunately, it didn't work quite as well on Monday night as I expected. Al Gore and Jimmy Carter, the night's two main speakers not named Clinton, made powerful and persuasive critiques of George W. Bush's presidency, but they failed to advance much of a positive case for a President Kerry. Gore, the first major speaker to take the stage, gave the best speech it's possible for Al Gore to deliver, hitting that third gear he usually skips, the one in between robotic Gore and mental-patient Gore. It felt like Gore's turn to have a Bob Dole moment, to reinvent himself as an elder statesman who laughs at himself.

    But what the speech did for Gore is less important than what it did for Kerry: not enough. Gore's case against Bush was clear and convincing. He asked those who voted for his opponent four years ago, "Did you really get what you expected from the candidate that you voted for? Is our country more united today? Or more divided? Has the promise of compassionate conservatism been fulfilled? Or do those words now ring hollow? For that matter, are the economic policies really conservative at all? Did you expect, for example, the largest deficits in history?" Gore also reached out to Nader voters—and maybe even to capital-L Libertarians—asking, "Do you still believe that there was no difference between the candidates?" Gore even advanced what Mickey Kaus dubs the "Pedro Martinez" theory of the presidential campaign. He asked supporters of the Iraq war to consider the merits of a relief pitcher: "Wouldn't we be better off with a new President who hasn't burned his bridges to our allies, and who could rebuild respect for America in the world?"

    But if you're deciding whether to turn to the bullpen, it matters whether the guy warming up is Eric Gagne or Byung-Hyun Kim, and Gore doesn't do much to assure voters who aren't certain about Kerry's merits. Here's the entirety of his case for Kerry: He is loyal. He is honest. He is patriotic. He served in Vietnam. He protects the environment. He fights narcoterrorism. He's a deficit hawk. He picked John Edwards.

    It's not a bad list, but it feels insufficient. Carter's speech suffered from a similar problem. It was filled with reasons to vote against George Bush but not enough reasons to vote for John Kerry. Carter's critique of Bush was even more effective than Gore's, though, in part because it was so genially vicious. Alone of all the speakers Monday night, Carter alluded to Bush's service, or lack thereof, in the National Guard. He noted that Truman and Eisenhower, the two presidents Carter served under during his time in the Navy, "faced their active military responsibilities with honor." Kerry, likewise, "showed up when assigned to duty, and he served with honor and distinction." Carter also came the closest of any speaker to calling Bush a liar. He said that if Bush wins reelection, "the manipulation of truth will define America's role in the world," and he said that "in the world at large we cannot lead if our leaders mislead." Carter even made what to my ear sounds like a reference to the Abu Ghraib scandal, saying that "we cannot be true to ourselves if we mistreat others."

    Like Gore, however, Carter's embrace of Kerry wasn't as persuasive as his denunciation of Bush. This is nice, but it just isn't enough, I think to myself. Maybe Kerry can't rely on surrogates anymore. He's going to have to finally sell himself. Then Bill Clinton strode into the FleetCenter to worshipful applause.

    Clinton sold Kerry, rather than just tearing down the leading brand. And he managed to tie Kerry's Vietnam experience into a compelling thematic refrain, with Kerry declaring "send me," like a believer answering God's call, every time his nation needed him. Soon, the crowd began chanting Clinton's refrain with him. As usual, Clinton's familiarity with the language of religion added depth to his oratory. After Clinton said to remember the Scripture, "Be not afraid," I found myself singing the hymn in my head: "I will go, Lord, if you lead me. I will hold your people in my heart." More concisely: Send me.

    The speech was everything Kerry could have wished for, an electric performance by the party's most charismatic salesman. Still, as the former president walked off the stage, I had to wonder how many people were thinking: Send Clinton. This man would beat President Bush—again—in a romp. Kerry, on the other hand, hasn't yet proved that he can close the deal.

    So, in the end, Clinton's speech was just like Gore's and Carter's. It was nice, but it isn't enough.

              The Copycat Convention   

    BOSTON—John Kerry's victory jog through the Democratic primaries wasn't electrifying political drama, but it was fascinating to watch because Kerry's leisurely lapping of the field couldn't be explained by the conventional axioms of presidential politics. In the general election, Kerry has continued his rule-breaking ways. He's the same John Kerry—boring, craggy, and cringe-inducing—such as when, during his Sunday night, live-from-Fenway-Park interview on ESPN, he ducked the question of whether to induct Pete Rose into the Baseball Hall of Fame ("That's up to the writers. I think, probably, that's pretty difficult.") and tried to have it both ways on whether Roger Clemens should be inducted as a member of the Boston Red Sox ("Well, obviously, we think [Red Sox] but there are evenly divided opinions here."). But despite his limitations as a candidate, he's still engaged in a campaign that's suspending the normal laws of politics.

    Even a casual viewer of Hardball knows that the first rule of an election that involves a sitting president is that it's a referendum on the incumbent. This election, however, has turned out to be the opposite. It's a referendum on the challenger. Kerry probably isn't responsible for this turn of events, but he's benefiting from it: The referendum on the incumbent is over. President Bush already lost it. This presidential campaign isn't about whether the current president deserves a second term. It's about whether the challenger is a worthy replacement.

    So, even though there are supposed to be only five persuadable voters left in America, I'm inclined to think that the next four nights will be worth watching. Can the Democrats re-enact the successful 2000 Republican convention, a parade of moderation and diversity that convinced the nation that George W. Bush was a decent fellow who could be trusted with the levers of power? Four years ago, partisan Republicans were so consumed by Clinton hatred that they would shriek ecstatically every time Bush said he would "uphold the honor and dignity of the office." They channeled their rage into pragmatism: After eight years of Clinton, GOP primary voters wanted to beat Al Gore so badly that they rallied around Bush months before the primaries began, based on nothing more than the fact that he seemed electable. They made a calculated bet that Bush was a guy who would sell well, and they were right.

    Now it's the Democrats' turn to see if their similar gamble will have a similar payoff. But I wonder if this convention will be as restrained as the one Republicans held four years ago. There's a big-name loose cannon on the bill on each of the first three nights: On Monday it's Al Gore; on Tuesday it's Howard Dean; and on Wednesday it's Wesley Clark. Each one is smart, beloved by a portion of the party, and capable of rhetorical sobriety. They're also all capable of going off the deep end.

    Four years ago in Philadelphia, it took nearly two full days for a Republican speaker to even use the phrase "Clinton-Gore administration." On the eve of this convention, the Democrats were still sating their appetite for vitriol. A labor delegate caucus I attended Sunday was either an indication that the party isn't quite ready to tone down its rhetoric, or it was a Bush-bashing bachelor party, a final sowing of oats before the inevitable settling down. "This is where the first American revolution started, and the humiliating defeat of a king named George began," AFL-CIO president John Sweeney said. "And, brothers and sisters, it's where we're starting a new American revolution." Rep. John Lewis called George Bush the worst president of his lifetime. Dick Cheney was booed as a "calloused backroom operator."

    Then John Edwards was introduced to speak via satellite. He gave his standard speech, about leading the world rather than bullying it, about not going to war needlessly, and about John Kerry's heroism and service in Vietnam. He also delivered a line that is consistently his biggest applause-getter at the Kerry-Edwards events I've attended. It's Edwards' answer to "honor and dignity," Bush's subliminal catchphrase from the 2000 campaign.

    Every day, Edwards likes to say, every day John Kerry sits in that Oval Office, "he will always tell the American people the truth." The crowd erupted, as they always do. And during the entire speech, Edwards never said the president's name.

              And They're Off   

    ST. PETERSBURG, Fla.—John Kerry and John Edwards still believe in a place called Hope. And its sister city, Optimism. They also swear by a town called Opportunity, a village called Values, a burgh called Responsibility, and a couple of lakes called Family and Faith. But really, it's mostly Hope and Optimism.

    What kind of places are Hope and Optimism? Strong. Strong and American. Strong and American and middle-class. They don't do a lot of fighting against powerful interests, which leads some to speculate that Bob Shrum doesn't live in either place. But the American people will live in one, if not both, if Kerry and Edwards are elected. They'll probably live in Optimism first because Hope apparently needs to be restored.

    That was pretty much the message during the first few hours of the germinal Kerry-Edwards campaign, which launched with a Wednesday morning photo-op at the Heinz farm near Pittsburgh and continued with an afternoon rally in Cleveland. It wasn't the entire message because this was also the Stronger Here at Home and Respected Around the World tour. But the emphasis on hope and optimism, or at least on using the words hope and optimism a lot, was noteworthy because Edwards, the new man on the ticket, made his name in the primaries as Mr. Optimism. His political action committee even bore the ridiculous name New American Optimists.

    In Cleveland, the running mate sums up the campaign's new message with a phrase so nonsensical I can't believe it when I hear him repeat it later in Dayton, Ohio, and again here in Florida. He and Kerry embrace "the politics of hope, the politics of what's possible because this is America, where everything is possible," he proclaims.

    Let's get this straight. This campaign is about what's possible. In America, everything is possible. Ergo, this campaign is about everything. Which means it's about nothing.

    For the first few hours of the Kerry-Edwards campaign, the two candidates do their best to make it seem like it, anyway. The Cleveland kickoff event is particularly inauspicious. Edwards, normally sure on the stump, stumbles on several occasions, declaring incoherently at one point: "With John Kerry as president of the United States, no young American will ever go to war needlessly because America has decided to go to war." At another moment, Edwards assures the crowd of Kerry: "He will lead this country to the place that it can go." Teresa Heinz-Kerry misfires, too, when she notes that she's from nearby Pittsburgh and gets booed. (Must be an AFC North thing.) Good-naturedly booed, but still—the only other boos from the crowds for the rest of the day are reserved for President Bush and Vice President Cheney.

    By the time we reach Dayton, around 5 p.m., things start to improve. Kerry and Edwards have worked out some of the kinks in their rally rituals, and they seem more energetic, more natural, and less tired. Kerry's jokes even start to seem funnier, at least within the confines of the quaint "dad humor" that Kerry practices. He draws guffaws with a joke he trots out at each stop: "We think this is a dream ticket. We've got better vision, we've got better ideas, we've got real plans, we've got a better sense of what's happening to America. And we've got better hair." Later, he declares that an 13th-century Ohio Indian tribe with a medicine man "had a better health-care plan than this administration." And at the day's last stop, Kerry runs though the similarities between him and Edwards: "He's a lawyer. I'm a lawyer. His name is John. My name is John. He was named People magazine's sexiest person of the year. I read People magazine."

    The evening's final event boasts the best anti-Kerry/Edwards sign of the day ("Flush the Johns"), but it's also the day's best event by far. The hall is packed with angry Florida Democrats, and Kerry kicks things off by stoking their fury: "Thank you, Florida, where this time not only does every vote count, but every vote's gonna be counted."

    More important, though, the event reveals a secret benefit—at least it was a secret to me—to Kerry's decision to select Edwards as his running mate: Elizabeth Edwards is from Florida. "I'm a native Floridian," born in Jacksonville, she tells the crowd, which cheers wildly. Her parents married in Pensacola and now live in Sarasota. Her sister lives in Bradenton. "My aunts and uncles live all over the state," she concludes. "Don't you embarrass me in front of my family."

    It's not the first time in the day that Edwards' family seems to be paying as many dividends as the man himself. In the morning and early afternoon, the only person who brings a jolt of boyish energy and youthful enthusiasm to the campaign is 4-year-old Jack Edwards, who captivates voters and press alike. Six-year-old Emma Claire, with her pink backpack, is a hit, too. The idea that Bill and Hillary Clinton were "two for the price of one" was controversial. But what about four for the price of two?

              The Final Days   

    MILWAUKEE—We're at the point in the movie where you know how it's going to end, but you stay up late to watch anyway, no matter how painful it gets. The only reason we're here is to watch the beheading of Howard Dean, one reporter declares in the press room after Sunday night's debate. But didn't we see that part already? The end of Dean's quest for the Democratic presidential nomination is winding up with the leisurely pace of the interminable conclusion of The Return of the King. After New Hampshire, there's been nothing but denouement.

    Wisconsin was supposed to be Dean's dramatic last stand. Instead, it has all the excitement of the Missouri primary, but at least Missouri had the excuse that there weren't any candidates there. Members of the Dean campaign staff used Saturday to tour the Miller brewery—some are now sporting Miller High Life lapel pins—and I mentioned that I thought that was a pretty smart use of their free day, since Dean was in Vermont that night watching his son's final high-school hockey game. "They're pretty much all free days now," a campaign staffer replied.

    But Dean isn't the only candidate facing a death watch. I hear rumors before the debate that both John Edwards and Dennis Kucinich are dropping out. I don't believe either rumor, but I can't decide whether it's more shocking that people believe Edwards is leaving or that Kucinich is.

    Kucinich will never drop out. He's said so several times, and he's the one candidate who I believe means everything that comes out of his mouth. He really means it when he talks about the "militarization of thought," about being a "peace president," and about wanting to "change the metaphor of our society from war to peace." He was serious when he said in the spin room after Sunday's debate that unless we pull out of Iraq, "we're going to have a draft." Irony is not the long suit of the man who extended his wingspan Saturday night in front of a few hundred Democrats and helicoptered silently for several long seconds before shouting "No strings! No strings! No strings! No strings! I'll take you to the White House with no strings attached!" (Mean joke: Sure, he's got no strings to hold him down, but he still needs to be turned into a real candidate.) I feel bad about that joke—not bad enough not to print it—because, as Christopher Hitchens wrote last week, "Dennis Kucinich is the sort of guy who we need in politics." My wife thinks Kucinich is great, except for his crazy positions. I think that's about right.

    As for Edwards, what's the point of winning the battle to be the last man standing against Kerry if you're not going to follow through on your long-shot strategy? Edwards did better than expected in Iowa after being endorsed by the state's largest newspaper, followed by a superior performance in the state's final debate. Well, Edwards did pretty well Sunday night—it's fairer to say that Kerry did poorly—and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel just endorsed him.

    How bad was Kerry's night? It wasn't disastrous, but it's as bad as I've seen him. He sounded like the meandering, orotund Kerry of last summer. His answers to questions about diversity and gay marriage were muddled incoherence, and he claimed that it wasn't his fault that the Bush administration has abused the Patriot Act, the No Child Left Behind Act, and the congressional Iraq war resolution. But if you vote for broadly written laws that are abused by the administration in power when you passed them, aren't you at least partly to blame for the consequences? You wouldn't let your 6-year-old drive the family car and then blame him for the accident. And you can be certain that if the Patriot Act, No Child Left Behind, and the war were popular with Democratic voters, Kerry would be taking credit for them.

    Edwards fired off the night's best line in response to Kerry's tortuous answer to a question about whether he feels "any degree of responsibility for the war and its costs and casualties": "That's the longest answer I ever heard to a yes or no question. The answer to your question is: of course; we all accept responsibility for what we did." (The Dean campaign followed up with a press release stating only, "Memo to John Edwards: You are so right.")

    But I don't think that moment offsets the fact that Edwards is torching his centrist reputation with his antitrade rhetoric. Granted, it's not only him. Alleged liberal Howard Dean was the only candidate on stage willing to unabashedly defend the passage of free trade agreements such as NAFTA ("I think the free trade agreements were justified"), though he does want to change them now. Kerry seemed evasive when he defended his votes for NAFTA and permanent normal trade relations with China by citing side agreements that dealt with labor and environmental standards.

    But Edwards goes much further than Dean and Kerry. His campaign issued a press release trumpeting his votes against "fast track" and against trade agreements with Chile, Singapore, Africa, and the Caribbean. And on stage, he criticized Dean and Kerry for supporting "free trade, as they always have." The anti-NAFTA consensus was the most striking thing to me about Sunday's debate. Was it really more than 10 years ago that Al Gore handed that picture of Reed Smoot and Willis Hawley to Ross Perot on CNN?

    Later in the debate, Edwards toned down his rhetoric. "The truth is, some of these jobs are gone," he said. "We're not going to get them back." And I was grateful that no candidate elected to bash Greg Mankiw, the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers (as Kerry did in a speech Saturday night), for suggesting that the outsourcing of some jobs is good for the American economy in the long run. Bush administration economists have told enough lies—Mankiw's predecessor asserted that there was no connection between the deficit and interest rates, despite writing about the connection in his own textbook—that they deserve some applause when they tell an unpopular truth.


    MEMPHIS—This is the way a campaign ends. It clings to flailing hopes that Rupert Murdoch and the National Enquirer will bring down the front-runner. The candidate's wife complains to a TV reporter about the media's coverage of her husband. The Washington Post beat reporter says his newspaper is pulling him from the campaign, whether the candidate keeps going or not. During a three-hour ride from Nashville to Memphis, the campaign doesn't provide a campaign spokesman on the press bus. Phone calls and pages go unanswered. The press bus joke is whether the new Clark campaign song should be Johnny Cash's "Ring of Fire" ("down, down down ..."), Frank Sinatra's "That's Life" ("I thought of quittin', baby, but my heart just ain't gonna buy it"), or Beck's "Loser." Asked about comments from the candidate's son that major changes could be happening in the campaign after the Virginia and Tennessee primaries, Ian Alberg, a campaign staffer says, laughing, "Fire me please," so he can collect unemployment. And, with the possible exception of Wes Clark Jr., anytime anyone says anything interesting, it's off the record.

    Exactly a week ago, everyone was certain that Wesley Clark was going to drop out of the presidential campaign after the Feb. 3 primaries until he pulled off a last-minute win in Oklahoma. On Tuesday morning, the Magic 8-Ball once again says that signs point to yes, but there's enough conflicting evidence to keep things muddled for much of the day. The campaign's primary-night party was going to be in Nashville, but it gets moved to Memphis—presumably because Memphis is three hours closer to Clark's home in Little Rock, where he would go after quitting the campaign. But Wes Clark Jr. tells reporters that his father will continue to Super Tuesday, no matter what, because his father told him so Monday night. At a polling place in Nashville, Clark sounds like Howard Dean, telling a voter that he's just waiting for voters to tire of John Kerry. "What's gonna happen is buyer's remorse," he says. "You know, the purpose of a campaign is to wring it out." The day before, to another voter, he said, "I've got a real shot in Wisconsin," and a lot of support in Hollywood.

    Still, no one really believes that Clark is staying in the race. At 1:55 p.m., Alberg says, "We're going to Wisconsin tomorrow," but within 20 minutes, reporters on the press bus are still calling sources to arrange interviews for post-mortem stories about the campaign. No one knows who to trust for news about the campaign. Does the staff know? Does Wes Jr. know? Does the general know?

    At a stop at Noshville, a Nashville deli, candidate Clark doesn't bother with talking to voters, despite his staff's admonitions. Instead, he sits down and eats lunch for an hour. On the bus to Memphis, he takes a nap. "It's been a pretty nice day, all told," he says once we arrive in Memphis. "It's one of the more restful days I've had on the campaign."

    At 5:30 p.m., we stop at a polling place in Memphis. "This is a hallelujah day," a voter calls out to the general. "We're gonna win this thing." Clark's staff urges him to talk to voters on their way in to the polls. "I don't want to be running, like I'm assaulting people," he objects. "You've got to be subtle about it." He tells a voter holding a piece of campaign literature, "My name's on that ballot. No, it isn't. That's a different ballot. Where's my sample ballot?" A staff member hands it to him. "That's my name, Wesley Clark. There's a lot of other people's names, but you don't pay attention to them." He's a four-star general and a major-party presidential candidate, handing out sample ballots. It should be an inspiring example of democracy in action. Instead, it's kind of sad.

    Clark, however, is having a blast. "This is pretty much fun, isn't it?" he says. When his staff tells him its time to go, he complains. "Do we have to go? Why can't we just stay?" At another point, he just bursts out giggling. "It just kind of tickles me to see it," he tells the assembled reporters. What's so funny? "You're looking at me. The election's not abut me. It's about all these people who are voting." Since that answer doesn't make any sense, I can only speculate that Clark was struck by the the absurdity of the entire day. In the latest sign of the campaign's impending demise, staffers begin taking pictures of each other like it's the last day of summer camp.

    Back on the press bus, we hear that CNN has reported that Clark canceled a fund-raiser in Houston. "Nothing's been canceled," Alberg says. Traveling press secretary Jamal Simmons says, "There is no plan to exit anything tonight except Tennessee." Later, Alberg adds, "He's going to make a speech tonight. He's not going to concede tonight."

    It sure sounds like a concession speech. Clark hits strange notes, such as "It just doesn't get any better than this." He congratulates Kerry and John Edwards, calling them "patriots." He doesn't talk about his future plans or where he's going next. Instead, he talks broadly and praises the Democratic Party. He may have lost this race, he says, but "we're not going to lose the battle for America's future." And the song they play at the end is the one that Clark lobbied to have as his campaign song, one that's disliked by his staff: Journey's "Don't Stop Believin'." Following his father on the way out of the room, Wes Jr's eyes are moist.

    Shortly after the speech, 19 journalists huddle outside Clark's room—the Danny Thomas Suite—at the downtown Marriott to demand information on what the campaign is going to do next. The person staying across the hall walks out, and I think he's going to complain about the noise. Instead, it turns out that he's a fellow reporter. He says he overheard some people—he was watching them through his room's peephole—say that Clark had already notified his staff that he was dropping out. But he didn't recognize the speaker.

    Just before 10 p.m., we're told that communications director Matt Bennett will come to the press filing center at 11:15 p.m. with an announcement. We pile in the elevator and go downstairs. At about 10:05, we're told that Bennett is coming now. Before he arrives, CNN flashes on the crawl: "AP: Wesley Clark abandons presidential campaign." Bennett shows up and confirms the report.

    Not that we really needed confirmation. The candidate had said as much in the ballroom after his speech. He was shaking hands and thanking his supporters. I wish you had competed in the Iowa caucuses, says a supporter. "I wish I had, too," Clark replies. "Everything might have been different if I had done that." Then he walked out.

              Who's No. 2?   

    RICHMOND, VA.—Can this race be any closer? Not the race for the Democratic nomination, but the one for the runner-up.

    The nomination is all but wrapped up after John Kerry's trouncing of the field Saturday in Michigan and Washington. Not only has Kerry racked up wins in nine of the 11 states so far, but he's won a majority, not just a plurality, of the Democratic vote in four states: Delaware, Michigan, Missouri, and North Dakota. And according to CNN's numbers, Kerry held a slim majority of the state delegates racked up in Washington state, too, with 99 percent of the precincts reporting. Up to now, Kerry-haters could at least comfort themselves with the fact that more than 60 percent of the Democratic electorate in states such as Iowa and New Hampshire were picking a candidate other than John Kerry. They don't even have that thin reed to cling to anymore.

    A race that had political journalists salivating over its unpredictability in the days before the Iowa caucuses has instead unfolded exactly as it was designed. Terry McAuliffe drew this one up on the chalkboard during the pregame. The condensed primary schedule has worked just as intended, by anointing an early front-runner who is rolling through the nominating process without being forced to undergo a long, drawn-out fight with another candidate. (Howard Dean's boom and bust weren't in the McAuliffe plan, but since Dean's rise occurred before a single primary or caucus was held, it's not relevant to this analysis—except to the extent that the compressed schedule speeded his fall.)

    For those who didn't like McAuliffe's plan, its one redeeming characteristic was that it would let bigger, more populous states go earlier than usual, thereby giving them a larger say in the process. But the hope that a compressed schedule might give less power to Iowa and New Hampshire than in previous cycles has proven to be a fantasy. In fact, in this election cycle the pattern has been that the larger and more important a state is, the less campaigning goes on there. On Feb. 3, Missouri and its 74 delegates were basically ignored. Washington, with 76 delegates, was an even bigger prize than Missouri, but most candidates other than Kerry and Dean ignored it, too. With 128 delegates, Michigan is the biggest state on the schedule until March 2, but on election day, Kerry, John Edwards, and Wesley Clark were all in Tennessee and Virginia. (Virginia, granted, has 82 delegates, but it looks like Edwards and Clark are choosing to duke it out in the smaller state of Tennessee.)

    The marginal benefit of campaign expenditures and campaign appearances is increased in smaller states. The fewer voters there are in a state, the higher the percentage of them that can be swayed by a TV ad or a stump appearance. Plus smaller states are just cheaper to campaign in for cash-poor candidates. So, the upshot of the McAuliffe plan has been to increase the attention paid by presidential candidates to more small states than ever, beyond the usual first-in-the-nation duo.

    The one scenario that would muck up McAuliffe's plan would be a closely contested race between two or even three candidates, each of whom racked up wins in enough states to prolong the battle beyond March 2 or even March 9. Which brings me back to the close race I mentioned at the outset. So far, this campaign has been outstanding at anointing front-runners—Kerry, then Dean, then Kerry—but astonishingly poor at figuring out who the top-ranked challenger is.

    At long last, we found the anti-Dean—that's Kerry—but now there's a new problem. Who's the anti-Kerry? If delegate count is the critical factor, after his second-place showings in Michigan and Washington, Dean leads everyone but Kerry. But Clark and Edwards have a pretty good claim over Dean: They have each won a state, while Dean hasn't won any. If finishing as close to the top as possible when you come in second is the criterion, Edwards has the strongest claim. Clark, Dean, and Edwards have each placed second in three contests, but Edwards has two close second-place finishes—coming within single digits in both Iowa and Oklahoma—while Clark and Dean lost badly each time they were first runner-up.

    But Clark and Dean have ways that they can counter Edwards. Thanks to five third-place finishes, Dean has finished in the top three in eight of the 11 states so far. Clark has done that only six times, and Edwards has done it five times—less than half the time. Can a candidate who finished below third in six states make a straight-faced claim that he deserves a one-on-one shot against Kerry?

    But wait: Edwards has been one of the top four candidates in all 11 states. Dean placed fifth twice, in Oklahoma and South Carolina, while Clark finished fifth three times, in Delaware, Michigan, and Washington. And Clark finished sixth in Iowa, where he admittedly didn't compete, but sorry, you don't get to choose which states are in the union.

    Should Dean be disqualified because he lost to Al Sharpton in South Carolina? What about Clark, then? He's lost to Sharpton twice—in South Carolina and now in Michigan. Edwards has consistently beaten the reverend, but he lost to Dennis Kucinich Saturday in Washington. Clark, however, has lost to Kucinich twice—in Iowa (where Clark didn't run, but still) and in Washington. Dean has the ignominy of being beaten by Joe Lieberman twice, finishing behind him in Oklahoma as well as Delaware, where all three men—Clark, Dean, and Edwards—couldn't defeat Joementum.

    Right now, Edwards looks like the candidate most likely to survive and become Kerry's sacrificial lamb on March 2. Edwards hopes that Clark loses Tennessee on Tuesday and then bows out of the race, and that Dean quits after a loss in Wisconsin a week later. That would leave Edwards with two weeks before March 2—and the intervening Hawaii, Idaho, and Utah contests—to convince voters that he has a better chance of beating President Bush in November than Kerry does.

    I'm sure Edwards would like more than two weeks to make his case. But that's no reason to clear the race for him.

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              Republican Campaign Preview   

    ST. LOUIS—Dick Gephardt's congressional district is Busch country, if not Bush country, so if you're going to hold a Republican presidential campaign rally in a Democratic stronghold, this one's as appropriate as any. Mary Matalin, who's on board the Bush-Cheney '04 team as a campaign adviser, is in town with a phalanx of Missouri Republicans. I'd say she's in town to distract media attention from the Democratic primary in the largest of the Feb. 3 states, except there's pretty much no Democratic campaign to speak of in Missouri. As a result, Missourians appear more interested in the Democratic primary for governor, between incumbent Gov. Bob Holden and State Auditor Claire McCaskill, than in presidential politics.

    The Bush rally does, however, provide some insight into the general-election campaign message that the Bush-Cheney campaign is trying out. If the Democratic primaries and caucuses over the next four or five weeks are a referendum on John Kerry's electability, it's worth knowing what he's expected to be electable against. Monday's rally is the second Republican event I've attended this campaign—the other was in Nashua, N.H., where John McCain stumped for the president—and the president's re-election argument, as advanced by his surrogates, couldn't be clearer. The Republicans want the threshold question of this election to be: On Sept. 11 and Sept. 12, 2001, would you rather have had George W. Bush as president or his Democratic opponent?

    Both Bush rallies that I've attended emphasize the idea that the president merits re-election as a reward for past performance, as much as—or even more than—any promise of future results. "On Sept. 11, when this nation faced in many respects the greatest threat to our security, President Bush stood forward, led this nation with clarity and with strength, which has earned him the admiration and appreciation of the overwhelming majority of Americans, and I believe has earned him another term as president of the United States of America," McCain said in Nashua. The speakers at Monday's event strike similar notes. "This is a man who has restored peace to the American homeland, after we suffered the worst attack we have suffered here since Pearl Harbor," U.S. Sen. Jim Talent says. U.S. Sen. Kit Bond puts it this way: "I'm most concerned about the war on terror. When Sept. 11, 2001, hit us, George Bush knew what to do."

    Al Gore tried to run on the Clinton record of peace and prosperity. The Bush campaign looks like it will run on arguable prosperity and war. Kerry's line that the war on terrorism is as much a law-enforcement and intelligence-gathering operation as it is a military one is derided. "There's only one person gonna be running for president in November of this year who believes that the war against terrorism is a war, against a transnational army that attacked and every day threatens the people of the United States, not a law enforcement action against a few stray criminals," Talent says. Matalin concurs. "This is not a law enforcement effort, as has been said. This is a war. This is a global war. This is a war between barbarism and civilization."

    Local boy John Ashcroft and the Patriot Act receive a heaping of praise. "John Ashcroft and the Bush administration have been successful," Bond says. "According to the FBI director, at least 100 planned terrorist attacks, underway for the United States, were disrupted because they used the Patriot Act. Thanks heavens we have the Patriot Act and we have somebody like John Ashcroft ..." I think Bond's concluding phrase is "who's going to use it," but I can't hear him over the crowd's applause. This is Bizarro World when compared to the Democratic campaign trail, where Ashcroft is deemed a supervillain second only to Karl Rove.

    "The polls show that one of our colleagues in the United States Senate is leading in the Democratic primary here," continues Bond, referring to Kerry. "He wants to get rid of the Patriot Act. He voted for it, now he doesn't like it." The effectiveness of that line is undercut by Bond's demagogic follow-up: "Personally, I like being free of terrorist attacks." The crowd laughs appreciatively. Later, Matalin says that John Ashcroft is more than a mere terrorist-fighting, cell-breaking, plot-disrupting attorney general. "John Ashcroft is a hero."

    Argument No. 3 is that the missing weapons of mass destruction in Iraq are irrelevant. Partly, because as McCain said back in New Hampshire, "Saddam Hussein acquired weapons of mass destruction, he used weapons of mass destruction against his own people and his enemies, and there is no expert that I know that doesn't believe that if Saddam Hussein was still in power he would be attempting to acquire weapons of mass destruction."

    But the humanitarian benefits of the Iraq war are emphasized more than the threat posed by Saddam. In Nashua, McCain cited a mass grave of 3,000 "men, women, and children," and added, "My friends, when those 8- and 9-year-old boys were let out of prison in Baghdad, our effort and our sacrifice was justified." Matalin compares Bush's hope for a democratic Iraq to the hopes of Islamic radicals. "There are forces that want to go backwards, that are for oppression, repressing women, there is no freedom, versus going forward into the modern world," she says.

    After the event is over, I tell Matalin that the Republican pitch sounds backward-looking. OK, people liked President Bush after 9/11. But that's not an agenda. What's the president's plan going forward? "This is a generational commitment to get this job done," she says. "It took 60 years of a policy of hypocrisy, turning the other way when there was oppression and tyranny in that region, to create this kind of terrorism against America. So, getting a whole region to bring in the hallmarks of a modern state, private property, human rights, rights for women, a judicial system, market principles, it takes more than a campaign cycle. So, he reversed a 60-year policy that wasn't working in the region, and he is putting in place, which is going to take more than one term or two terms, collective security arrangements for the 21st century."

    That's a mouthful. And it sets up what I think will be the most intriguing question of the general election. Which candidate will succeed in portraying himself as the internationalist in the race? The Democratic contenders push cooperation, alliances, and multilateral institutions, but they also use nationalist rhetoric to tar Bush for spending money abroad rather than spending it at home (say, "opening firehouses in Baghdad and closing them in the United States," a Kerry line). Taking off on some of that nationalist rhetoric, the Bush surrogates describe Democrats as isolationists who want the United States to abandon its leadership role in the world. The Democrats respond by describing President Bush as a unilateralist who abandoned the nation's role as a global leader. Who will succeed in defining himself as a broad-minded internationalist and his opponent as a narrow-minded nationalist? Our next president.

              Howard Dean's Day Off   

    HOOKSETT, N.H.—Howard Dean is going to Arizona! He's going to New Mexico! He's going to Michigan! And Washington! And Burlington?

    Every major Democratic presidential candidate except Howard Dean will campaign Wednesday in one of the Feb. 3 states (Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and South Carolina). Front-running John Kerry heads to St. Louis for a rally, while John Edwards goes to Springfield, Mo., and St. Louis. Wesley Clark travels to Charleston, S.C., Joe Lieberman is doing three events in Delaware (not "Joeklahoma"?), and Dennis Kucinich will stump in Oklahoma. But Dean is going to rest up and regroup at campaign headquarters in Vermont. He's not taking the day off—he's going to do television interviews with local stations in key February states—but the decision indicates that the Dean campaign may be looking past Feb. 3 in its quest for the nomination after a second-place finish in New Hampshire.

    The campaign won't out-and-out admit that it's looking past Feb. 3, of course. The current spin: We've raised $1.5 million in the past week. We have a 50-state organization. But what good did their money and their organization do them in Iowa and New Hampshire? From another perspective, it looks as if the campaign isn't sure what to do right now. Every staffer that I talked to Tuesday night didn't know his or her next destination. New Hampshire communications director Dorie Clark told me she was moving out of her Manchester apartment, putting her stuff in storage, and ready to take her duffle bag wherever they told her to go. They just hadn't told her yet.

    But there may be a strategic motivation for going into hiding. At the Holiday Inn bar in Manchester Monday night, Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi told reporters that Dean just needed to hang around long enough until voters got tired of John Kerry. Then, he hoped, those voters would start coming back to Dean. He cited the example of Jerry Brown winning Colorado in the 1992 campaign after voters tired of Bill Clinton. (He then insisted that his candidate was not Jerry Brown.) The assumption had been that Dean was going to go fight in Arizona and New Mexico, but Trippi sounded like a man who was managing expectations in preparation for a potential goose egg on Feb. 3. (Many people think Dean has a better shot on Feb. 7 in Washington and Michigan.)

    It's not an insane idea. Sit back, husband your resources, and pray that John Kerry can defeat John Kerry in time to give you a chance on March 3, when huge states like California, New York, and Ohio weigh in. Dean's support in Iowa and New Hampshire turned out to be very soft, and Kerry's support is likely to be soft, too. Now that Kerry is the front-runner, he's going to start receiving a lot more scrutiny from the press, which Dean hopes will damage Kerry's perceived electability. Plus there's the theory that Kerry is a candidate who wears poorly on voters.

    The last two Democrats to win both Iowa and New Hampshire were Al Gore in 2000 and Jimmy Carter in 1976, but Dean's best hope is that the Kerry campaign is closer to that of the Democrat who won both states four years before Carter: Edmund Muskie. The problem with that hope is that the second-place finishers in New Hampshire who ended up as the "perceived winner"—Eugene McCarthy in 1968, George McGovern in 1972, and Bill Clinton in 1992—all finished within single digits of their opponent. Dean lost by 13 points.

    Wesley Clark's third-place finish in New Hampshire also looks likely to hurt Dean's chances. Of the 35 percent of New Hampshire voters who cast ballots for a candidate other than Dean or Kerry, the 13 percent who went for Clark are the largest trove of likely Dean voters. The longer Clark stays in the race as a serious contender, the longer the antiwar vote is divided.

    So, it's a long shot, and Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe has ordered candidates who don't win a state on Feb. 3 to quit the race. (At the Holiday Inn, Trippi virtually promised to ignore McAuliffe.) But it's probably Dean's only shot. Will the voters who dated Dean, then married Kerry get bored enough that they start to fantasize again about sleeping with Dean?

              Landslide Kerry   

    HAMPTON, N.H.—As Kerrymania sweeps the Granite State, the latest Zogby Poll notwithstanding, I'm still scratching my head over the phenomenon. Politics is full of truisms, one of which is that voters never elect a résumé, and another is that they don't vote strategically. But in John Kerry's case, voters appear to be doing both. They've decided, whether he's their favorite candidate or not, that he's the Democrat with the CV to go up against President Bush in November.

    A third political truism—that negative campaigning hurts both the attacker and the attacked—helped explain the results of the Iowa caucuses, as voters ran away from the Dean-Gephardt slugfest and toward Kerry and John Edwards and, to a lesser extent here in New Hampshire, Wesley Clark. But I'm straining for an iron law of politics that explains how Kerry went from presumptive embarrassment to presumptive nominee in less than a month (though the race isn't over by a long shot). He's not the best or most skilled speaker in the race. He hasn't raised the most money. He wasn't leading in the national polls on Jan. 1.

    Kerry is the Einstein of this race, upending the known Newtonian laws and replacing them with new ones. Perhaps the candidate who uses the most superlatives is now guaranteed victory. Kerry loves two expressions: "in all my time in public life" and "in the modern history of the country." For example, to take a Kerry favorite, President Bush has conducted "the most arrogant, inept, reckless, and ideological foreign policy in the modern history of the country." Similarly, Kerry said Sunday in Nashua, "This is the most antiscience administration in the modern history of the country." Or, during this month's National Public radio debate, "We're witnessing the greatest period of crony capitalism in the modern history of the country."

    "Never in all my time in public life have I seen the workplace so unfair," is another Kerry favorite on the stump. Or, here's Kerry last week on the PBS NewsHour: "This is the most say-one-thing do-another administration I've seen in all my time in public life." In last week's debate, it was, "This is the worst environmental administration that I've ever seen in all my time in public life." At a Friday event in Manchester, Kerry declared that the Republican campaign against former Georgia Sen. Max Cleland (who's been campaigning with Kerry) was "the most craven moment I have seen in American politics." Presumably it broke the record held by a 1996 William Weld ad that Kerry then called "the most duplicitous and brazen distortion I've ever seen."

    Or perhaps the candidate who receives the worst introduction speech of the campaign wins. At that Friday event in Manchester, Sen. Fritz Hollings, D-S.C., introduced Kerry with a long, rambling speech that included the word "Chinaman." As Hollings was explaining that "50 percent of the furniture in this country comes from China," a shockingly loud pop crackled through the speakers and startled most people in the room. "Some Chinaman got mad at that," Hollings said to laughter. (Later, when more noises popped through the speakers, Kerry politically corrected the joke to, "This Chinese guy is still around.") Hollings also declared that Dick Cheney "is the Jesse Jackson of the Republican Party. He wants it all, his time has come!" A few people applauded when Hollings said he was about to finish.

    Or perhaps the spoils go to the candidate who has the most difficulty reading his crowd. In Manchester, Kerry gave a touching speech about the importance of veterans and of "keeping faith with those who wore the uniform." As soon as it was over, a woman stood up and said, I'm not a veteran. What are you going to do for the average person? At a firehouse in Hampton yesterday, a man told Kerry that he thinks it's unfair that people say a New Englander can't connect with people from varying backgrounds. And to prove that you can do it, he says, explain the importance of the icon on my hat. Kerry is mystified. "The Latin? The Ten?" he asks. Malcolm X, the man explains.

    I don't want to overstate Kerry's flaws. He's not Al Gore. He comes across as good-humored, decent, and likable rather than phony. And he doesn't pander mindlessly on every subject. On offshore job losses, "The solution is not to sit there and pretend that you can stop every job from going overseas," he says in Hampton. On the subject of religion, he believes that presidents should "recognize the diversity of faiths and even of agnosticism and atheism," and he takes the politically risky stance of admitting to a "questioning, agnostic stage" after his experience in Vietnam.

    But Kerry also seems to keep a little intellectual distance from his public persona, unlike Dean or Edwards, who are pretty much "method politicians." The goofy grin that Kerry invariably breaks out at the end of his stump speech communicates the idea that he thinks this is a little, well, goofy. In a sense, that might be one more reason to like him, but it doesn't get me any closer to explaining his success. Going after Dean on taxes seems to be working—"I'm going to protect the middle class. I'm not touching your child care credit, like some candidates. I'm not going to put back in place the marriage penalty. I'm not going to take away your 10 percent bracket and raise it immediately to 15 percent, as some candidates are," Kerry says—but Democrats aren't supposed to vote on tax cuts in a primary. Military experience is part of it, too, but that brings me back to the résumé truism.

    I'm left with one answer: He's taller.

              Is He Still Here?   

    MANCHESTER, N.H.—I knew John Kerry was the man of the hour, but what made the feeling more than an abstraction was the Baltimore-Washington airport bookstore. It stocked a display of Kerry's campaign book, A Call to Service, above the latest books by Bill O'Reilly and Ann Coulter. Yes, it's the Washington area, but still—it's an airport bookstore.

    Kerry continued his winning streak at tonight's debate, the final one among the seven remaining Democrats before the New Hampshire primary. Debates have been Kerry's best format during this campaign. He's a TV candidate, cool and authoritative, and the time-cramped medium comes to his aid by forcibly restricting his long-winded oratorical perambulations. But until tonight's context, Kerry's debate performances seemed as irrelevant as Al Sharpton's zingers.

    The moment when Kerry won the debate, I thought, was when he answered Manchester Union-Leader reporter John DiStaso's question about his decision to throw his medals (or was it his ribbons?) away in protest during the Vietnam War. "I could not be more proud of the fact that when I came back from that war, having learned what I learned, that I led thousands of veterans to Washington, we camped on the Mall underneath the Congress, underneath Richard Nixon's visibility," Kerry said. "He tried to kick us off. And we stood our ground and said to him, 'Mr. President, you sent us 8,000 miles away to fight, die and sleep in the jungles of Vietnam. We've earned the right to sleep on this Mall and talk to our senators and congressmen.'" Kerry used the occasion to cast himself as both pro-veteran and antiwar, surely the sweet spot he hoped to squeeze his candidacy into before he got bogged down over the meaning of his vote in favor of the Iraq war resolution.

    I'm beginning to suspect that Kerry's lack of clarity on the Iraq war actually benefits his candidacy. One, because voters from a wide spectrum can find ways to square his position with theirs, and two, because his muddled ambivalence best captures the way I suspect the great majority of Democrats feel. (Kerry may have best explained his stance in October 2002 when he said, "My vote was cast in a way that made it very clear, Mr. President, I'm voting for you to do what you said you're going to do, which is to go through the U.N. and do this through an international process. If you go unilaterally, without having exhausted these remedies, I'm not supporting you. And if you decide that this is just a matter of straight pre-emptive doctrine for regime-change purposes without regard to the imminence of the threat, I'm not going to support you." The quote is taken from Walter Shapiro's One-Car Caravan.)

    But wouldn't Kerry know it? Even during his rosy post-caucus glow, he can't escape the man he once exasperatedly referred to as "Dean, Dean, Dean, Dean." Whether the Vermont governor is riding high in the polls or flaming out, he's the candidate the media fixate on. The local ABC affiliate in Manchester trumpeted its Nightline broadcast of the debate by mentioning only one candidate, Dean, by name. And if Dean's last-ditch effort to save his candidacy wasn't already the story of the day, his campaign ensured that it would be by sending their candidate on a televised triple play: the debate, his (and his wife's) interview with Diane Sawyer on ABC's Primetime Live, and his appearance on the Late Show With David Letterman. I watched all three from the comfort of my hotel room.

    There are advantages to watching political events on television rather than attending them in person. For one, you get to see them as the viewers do. I was on the scene in Iowa during this campaign's defining moment, the Dean Scream, and I didn't even notice it. The crowd was so noisy during what appeared to be typical Dean behavior during a stump speech, not unlike his listing off of the industrialized countries with universal health care ("the British and the French and the Germans," on and on to "the Danes, the Swedes, the Japanese, even the Costa Ricans have health care!"), that no one in the room seemed to hear the "part growl, part yodel," as the Boston Globe put it. Second, when you attend a political debate, all you really do is watch it on TV anyway, except you watch it in on TV in a room filled with other journalists. Third, I had no idea that Ernie Hudson, aka "the fourth Ghostbuster," had his own show on ABC.

    A couple things struck me from the Primetime interview. Dean said he was "speaking to 3,500 kids" on caucus night. I didn't formally survey the demographics of Dean's volunteers in Iowa, obviously, but his reference to the "under-30 generation" during his post-caucus speech elicited mild boos from the crowd. When I followed three Dean volunteers as they canvassed for votes in Des Moines, one was 33, one was 55, and one was 58. They weren't atypical. From my experience, nothing tweaks Dean supporters more than the idea that they are angry children, and they're right that the widespread belief that Dean is the kiddie candidate gives voters a reason not to take him seriously.

    The second thing that occurred to me was something from Howard Dean: A Citizen's Guide to the Man Who Would Be President, the book by a team of Vermont reporters. In it, one journalist notes that as Vermont governor, Dean never quite grasped that he was something other than an ordinary person, and that his words had unusual power. Sure, he had an uncommon job, but other than that, Dean thought he was just a regular guy. To a great extent, Dean has behaved on the campaign trail as if he still feels the same way.

    Dean's regular-guy status is one of the most appealing things about his candidacy, and it's one of the most fun things about covering him. He's willing to let himself be a normal person to a reporter in a way that most politicians won't. But in another way, a presidential candidate, and especially a president, isn't a regular guy. Presidents can't do or say the things that even senators and governors can. Neither can first ladies. That may not be fair, but that's the way it is.

    It looks as if Howard and Judy Dean have decided that if they can't remain "just ordinary folks," they don't want to be president and first lady. That's admirable. But I also suspect that that decision, and not some pirate yell, is the biggest obstacle that would keep them from the White House.

              Howard Dean's Very Bad Night   

    DES MOINES, Iowa—"Prove it or not," Howard Dean told his supporters at a rally Sunday in Davenport. "Now is the time to see if this works," to see if the unorthodox, Internet-fueled campaign assembled by Dean and his campaign manager, Joe Trippi, translates into votes. "Tomorrow, at 6:30 p.m., you can prove it or not." The answer Iowans gave him was a raspberry: Or not.

    I attended a West Des Moines caucus Monday night with Dean's Iowa press secretary, Sarah Leonard, and her feeling about the race was that it would be close, so close perhaps that they wouldn't be able to call it that night. She felt it was a three-way race, between Dean, Kerry, and Gephardt. "Edwards, I just don't think you can build an organization in 48 hours," she said. But it wasn't close. Momentum beat organization, both Dean's digital one and Gephardt's analog one. (Leonard did say before the caucus, however, that the rumor that Dean had a hard count of 50,000 was preposterous. "If we had a hard count of 50,000, I'd probably be at the Val Air," she joked, referring to the ballroom site of Dean's caucus night party.)

    The results from our caucus reflected the results of the 1,992 other caucuses in the state in one respect: Kerry got twice as many delegates as Howard Dean, four to two (with John Edwards picking up four as well). There were lots of new and first-time caucus participants, so many that the organizers ran out of forms to register them. But they weren't the new voters the Dean campaign wanted. George Davey, the precinct captain for the Dean campaign, said he was hoping for 25 to 50 Dean voters between the ages of 18 and 25, but only one showed up. "I think if we could blame [Dean's loss] on anyone, blame it on the 18- to 25-year-olds, because they were nonexistent," he said.

    Davey, who is 37, also said Dean needed to be less negative toward his opponents. And another Dean volunteer, Toby Sackton, a 57-year-old from Boston, complained that Dean's television ads weren't any good. "We saw three ads, one by Kerry, one by Edwards, and one by Dean. Dean's was by far the worst," he said. "It was an ad aimed at getting the supporters out," not appealing to voters who didn't already like Dean.

    I think there's something to Sackton's complaint. I heard four or five Dean radio ads on my drive to the caucus, all with the same message: Dean had the courage to stand up to President Bush on the war while the other major candidates folded. Dean's saturation TV ads focused on nefarious "corporations" and "special interests" and "Washington insiders," rather than the things I'd seen Dean use on the stump (in addition to his stance on the war) to appeal to voters who hadn't heard of him already: his Vermont record of balanced budgets, health care, and the state's "Success by Six" program for children.

    In his final days in Iowa, Dean's campaign was about his campaign. To the extent issues were at stake at all, Dean's message focused on the past—Do you want a candidate who was against the war, as Dean put it in Davenport, "not now, but then"?—while John Kerry focused on a future consideration—Do you want a candidate who will raise your taxes? Beyond the war, Dean hit three notes: What his opponents said and did in 2002 and 2001, the fact that he's raised lots of money in small donations over the Internet, and tiresome bromides about the special interests/corporations/Washington insiders. It's a high-tech version of Al Gore's "people vs. the powerful" campaign. That's not good enough.

    Four years ago, George W. Bush rebounded from a surprisingly large defeat in New Hampshire by co-opting his opponent's message and recasting himself as a "reformer with results." Dean might do the same. If he's got a tax cut in his back pocket, it's time to bring it out. And he needs to do a better job of introducing himself and his record to voters who haven't been paying attention to the campaign for six months or a year.

    The early signs of that happening aren't auspicious. Rather than reaching out to the unconverted, Dean fired up his base of supporters at the Val Air. He grinned, ripped off his jacket, rolled up his sleeves, and flung an orange "Perfect Storm" hat into the crowd. Then he started waving an American flag. Walter Shapiro's metaphor of Dean as an "aging rock star reduced to reprising his greatest hits in smaller and smaller clubs" never felt more apt.

    At the Hotel Fort Des Moines bar on Saturday night, the New Republic's Ryan Lizza told Dean strategist Steve McMahon that his campaign needed a new message. McMahon shook his head. You and I are in different businesses, he said. The press is bored with our message, but we need to dance with the girl that brung us. I think McMahon's wrong. I think Dean's campaign became much more anti-business and much less moderate than it was six months ago, and it became a campaign about a messianic figure and his movement rather than a blunt, moderate Democrat and his policies. But even if McMahon is right, he must know by now that it's time to find another girl.

              Who's No. 1?   

    DES MOINES, IOWA—To give you an idea of how crowded Iowa is with presidential candidates and those who follow them, here's what happened in the first hour and a half after I landed here Wednesday night: At baggage claim, I encountered two Kerry campaign workers in need of a lift, so I dropped them off at Kerry HQ, which is downtown in what used to be a car dealership. Moments later, when I pulled up in front of my hotel, the "Real Solutions Express"—the big, blue, star-spangled Edwards bus—was sitting outside. After I checked in, I rode up the elevator with Juan Williams. Ten minutes later, my next elevator ride was with Aaron Pickerel, the Iowa political director for the Edwards campaign. In 20 minutes of TV viewing, I saw ads for Dean, Kerry, Kucinich ("Did I approve this commercial? You bet"), Edwards, Dean again, and Kucinich again.

    Two days ago, the Iowa storyline seemed pretty clear: Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt would duke it out for first place, and John Kerry and John Edwards would compete for third. But now, if the latest Zogby poll is to be believed, it's a four-way run for the finish. No one seems to have any idea how things are going to go down on Monday, but at the moment, the race feels so close that the results won't winnow a single candidate from the race.

    Right now, the biggest mystery of the campaign to me is what's gotten into John Edwards? After his spectacular performance at the Des Moines Register debate earlier this month, I thought to myself, "Too little, too late." After the Register endorsed him, I yawned. But a campaign rally this afternoon at the Renaissance Savery Hotel is the first Edwards event I've witnessed where an enthusiastic crowd gave him the aura of a winner. Before today, I'd only seen Howard Dean and Wesley Clark perform this well. (I'll weigh in with a judgment on John Kerry after I see him tonight.)

    North Carolina Gov. Michael Easley introduces Edwards with the best introduction speech I've heard for any candidate this campaign. He praises Edwards' opponents, saying: "They've all served our country well. I don't have anything negative to say about any of them, and neither does Sen. Edwards." Then he says something artfully negative about them anyway. "I'm running [for re-election] this time, and I want to run with someone I can run with, not from." Easley prepares the crowd for Edwards' theme: The North Carolina senator has dropped his aw-shucks, son of a mill worker, I've-done-this-my-whole-life campaign, and now presents himself as a fighter who has defeated powerful interests and powerful Republicans. "When he decided to run [for U.S. senator], he took on the toughest Republican establishment in the history of this country," Easley says.

    Edwards has expanded one of the most effective portions of his stump speech, the part about "two school systems, one for the haves, and one for the have-nots," and turned it into the campaign theme. There are "two Americas," he says: two school systems, two tax systems, two economies, even "two governments in Washington, D.C." America also has "two images all around the world," the shining City on a Hill versus a new, less flattering image that's been created by President Bush.

    Edwards has always gone after lobbyists, but now he's more strident about it. "We ought to cut these lobbyists off at the knees," he says. "We ought to ban them from making political contributions." He rails against the "revolving door" between lobbying and government, and he condemns "war profiteering." "We ought to ban these companies from making political contributions at the same time they're bidding on Iraq."

    Of the corporate lawyers who underestimated him in the courtroom, Edwards yells: "I beat 'em. And I beat 'em again. And I beat 'em again." Ditto for "the Jesse Helms political machine," which underestimated him during his race for the U.S. Senate, he says. "And now I'm the senior senator from North Carolina, not Jesse Helms! And that is good for America!" (This fires up the crowd, but won't John Edwards not be the senior senator from North Carolina next year, because he decided to run for president instead of re-election? Is that bad for America?)

    By the end of his speech, Edwards is sounding more and more like the man he's been chasing, Howard Dean. Up to now, most of the non-Deans have been trying to copy Dean's message by mimicking his anger, but Edwards zeroes in on another part of Dean's pitch, the part about empowering "you." Edwards promises to take away Washington from "that crowd of insiders in Washington, D.C.," and restore it to you. He can't do it alone, he says: "You and I are going to do it together." And the last line of his speech is no longer about himself, about an America in which the son of a mill worker can beat the son of a president. Instead, the son of a mill worker sounds like the son of a stockbroker: "I believe in you."

    On the subject of speaking precisely: I've been inundated with complaints about my recent piece that listed six statements made by Wesley Clark in New Hampshire. Unfortunately, I lumped statements that are objectively inaccurate (there were no terrorists in Iraq before the war) with statements that are demagogic (we could find Osama Bin Laden "if we wanted to") with statements that are imprecise (the statement that Bush "never intended to put the resources in to get Osama Bin Laden" can be defended logically, but so can Howard Dean's statement about the "Saudi tip-off" conspiracy theory that a secretive administration breeds conspiracy theories; neither are smart politics) with statements that are merely provocative and controversial and could be used to tar Clark unfairly (for example, I think it's unwise for Clark to focus on whether 9/11 was preventable). And I didn't outline which statement I believe falls in which category.

    The point of the piece, which was admittedly not clear, was to suggest that Clark may not be the "electable Dean" that his supporters believe he is. Both candidates have a propensity to make statements that range from impolitic to provocative to simply inaccurate. If you like Clark or Dean, you're predisposed to excuse these statements or to see them as courageous truth-telling. If you don't like them, you have a different reaction. I wanted to highlight this similarity between the two candidates, which belies the consensus that Clark is supported by careful centrists and Dean by angry liberals. I wish I had been more precise.

              Wesley Clark's Loose Lips   

    Whether it's true or not, Gen. Wesley Clark's rise in the polls in New Hampshire is being partly attributed to some voters having "cold feet" about former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, especially Dean's penchant for making statements that are quickly seized upon by Fox News or the Republican Party as evidence of unpatriotic disloyalty. But Clark has the same propensity for speaking imprecisely off the cuff. Here are some statements I heard him make last week during my trip with him in New Hampshire:

    Bush was "warned" about 9/11? "President Bush didn't do his job as commander in chief in the early months of his administration. He was warned that the greatest threat to the United States of America was Osama Bin Laden, yet on the 11th of September in 2001, the United States had no plan for dealing with the threat posed by Osama Bin Laden. The ship of state was on autopilot. There were good CIA officers and FBI officers and everybody doing what they'd been taught to do, but the essential leadership process of putting focus on the resources of the United States, and giving these agencies a real target and a mission, it wasn't done. At least, I think that's what the evidence will show if we ever get the results of this presidential commission, and if they've asked the right questions." (Jan. 6, McKelvieMiddle School, Bedford.)

    Bush "never intended" to get Osama Bin Laden? "We bombed Afghanistan, we missed Osama Bin Laden, partly because the president never intended to put the resources in to get Osama Bin Laden. All along, right after 9/11, they'd made their mind up, I guess, that we were going to go after Saddam Hussein. That's what people in the Pentagon told me. And they capped the resources, stopped the commitment to Afghanistan, and started shifting to prepare to go after Saddam Hussein." (Jan. 6, McKelvieMiddle School, Bedford.)

    There wasn't a single terrorist in Iraq before the war? "The president was not and has not been held accountable yet for misleading the American people. He is continuing to associate Saddam, Iraq, and the problem of terrorism. Yet the only terrorists that are in Iraq are the people that have come there to attack us." (Jan. 7, Town House, Peterborough.)

    Fifty-five million voters are "ill-informed" dupes of the Christian right? "Now, there's one party in America that's made the United Nations the enemy. And I don't know how many of you have ever read that series of books that's published by the Christian right that's called the "Left Behind" series? Probably nobody's read it up here. But don't feel bad, I'm not recommending it to you. I'm just telling you that according to the book cover that I saw in the airport, 55 million copies have been printed. And in it, the Antichrist is the United Nations. And so there's this huge, ill-informed body of sentiment out there that's just grinding away against the United Nations." (Jan. 7, FullerElementary School, Keene.)

    Does Islam need an Enlightenment or just Match.com? "Young men in an Islamic culture cannot get married until they can support a family. No job, no marriage. No marriage, unhappy young men. They get real angry, they feel real frustrated, they feel real powerless. And a certain number of them are being exploited in the mosques by this recruiting network." (Jan. 8, Havenwoods Heritage Heights senior center, Concord.)

    President Bush doesn't even want to find Bin Laden? "Newsweek magazine says he's in the mountains of western Pakistan. And I guess if Newsweek could find him there, we could, too, if we wanted to." (Jan. 8, Havenwoods Heritage Heights senior center, Concord.)

    [Update, 1/15/04: Click here and scroll to the bottom to read a more precise explanation of this article.]

              fiche partenariat *CHECK*   
    Harem Of Corruption contexte • charte • bottins • Scénarios • Guide Notre univers L’immensité du désert. Les dunes balayées par le vent qui bruisse comme le murmure incessant d’une mélodie. Une mélodie qui vous promet monts et merveilles. Le sable vibrant sous vos pas, la chaleur du soleil qui vous caresse la peau de votre corps. Le désert est une immensité tellement dangereuse, profonde et menaçante. Ce n'est qu'illusion face à la beauté paradisiaque qu'il vous offre. Prenez garde. C'est ...
              General Electric   

    PETERBOROUGH, N.H.—The metaphorical moment of my first 24 hours on the Clark trail took place late Tuesday, when a college student handed her résumé to a Clark aide and asked for a job. The objective emblazoned across the top of the page stated that she wanted a position with the Kerry campaign, except the word "Kerry" was scratched out and "Clark" was hand-written below it in ink. If that's not proof of Clark's newfound No. 2 status in New Hampshire, Howard Dean's campaign produced still more evidence when it authorized volunteers to distribute anti-Clark flyers at a Clark town-hall meeting Wednesday here in Peterborough.

    On one side, the flyer reads "WESLEY CLARK: PRO-WAR," followed by a list of the general's much-discussed statements in support of the congressional Iraq war resolution. It's the stuff that gave Clark grief when he entered the race in the fall: He advised Katrina Swett, campaigning at the time *, to vote for the resolution, and he told reporters this past September that "on balance, I probably would have voted for it." On the other side, the flyer reads "WESLEY CLARK: REAL DEMOCRAT?" followed by Clark's much-discussed statements in praise of President Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, and the Bush Cabinet, plus evidence of his pro-Republican voting record in presidential elections (until 1992).

    Clark strategist Chris Lehane paints this as hypocrisy on Dean's part. After calling on Terry McAuliffe to put a stop to intra-party bickering, the former Vermont governor aims his guns at his fellow Democrats when the tactic serves his interests. Fair enough, but who cares? More important is Clark campaign's sense of pride that it has arrived as a serious Dean rival. No campaign has ever been happier to have a target on its back.

    Just as a press release at the Oct. 9 Phoenix debate showed that the Dean campaign considered Dick Gephardt its main obstacle of the moment, these flyers, however mild, demonstrate that Clark has become a big enough irritant to merit a swat of his own. "The Howard Dean campaign is starting to get a little nervous," Mo Elleithee, the campaign's New Hampshire communications director, crows at a conference call slapped together to gleefully respond to Dean's "negative attack flyers." "They're hearing our footsteps."

    The Clark campaign insists that it was never engaged in any negative campaigning, and it's true that Clark has refrained from explicitly attacking Dean or any of his opponents at the three events I've attended so far. But there's no disputing that a healthy anti-Dean undercurrent runs through Clark's events. "You want to find the candidate you like, and you want to find the candidate who can win," says the man who introduces Clark in Peterborough. President Bush will run for re-election on national security and tax cuts, and Wesley Clark, he says, unlike Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean, can win on both.

    Clark himself is even vaguer, but it's clear to whom he is referring when he opens each stump speech with a declaration that the party must rise above its anger in this election. "I'm not running to bash Bush," he says. "I'm running to replace him." The rest of the speech focuses on his patriotism, his faith, and his policies, but I wonder if this is another quiet shot at Dean. During Vietnam, "Every man in America understood that he had a military obligation," so it's no big deal that Clark served his country, Clark insists. (Did Dean understand his obligation?) And then, at a quick press conference after the town hall, a reporter asks Clark to respond directly to the flyers. Sounding more than ever like the man who just attacked him, Clark replies, "I guess that's what professional politicians do."

    Correction, Jan. 9, 2004: In the original version of this article Chris Suellentrop referred to Katrina Swett as "Representative," when in fact she was merely campaigning for Congress at the time. Return to the corrected sentence.

              A Browser's Guide to Campaign 2004, Cont'd.   

    Four Trials, John Edwards' new book (written with John Auchard), is a lot like Edwards' presidential campaign appearances: On the plus side, it's affecting if a little bit corny, and in parts it's enthralling. But it's also thin on policy, focused on a past that bears little relation to the candidate's merits, and filled with eye-rolling paeans to the virtues and dignity of "regular people." And like the Edwards campaign, it's headed for the remainder bin before you know it.

    The book is organized around four narratives about depositions, cross-examinations, and closing arguments—fairly well-written and not uninteresting. But what's really new here is Edwards' willingness to talk about his son Wade, who died in a car accident at the age of 16. Edwards is said to refuse all media questions about Wade, and as far as I know, he never mentions him on the campaign trail. To take just one example, at a Nov. 5 debate in New Hampshire I saw Edwards say, in an eminently confusing answer for those who don't know his life story, "We have four kids. We have a daughter who is in college, then we have a five-year-old, Emma Claire, and a three-year-old, Jack." He added, "They are simply the joy of my life." But he said nothing about the missing fourth (and oldest) child, Wade. His death is the real trial that underpins the entire book.

    Wade shows up as early as Page 14, where Edwards mentions his birth in 1979. A subsequent chapter opens with a two-page account of Wade's healthy birth, to contrast it with the birth of Jennifer Campbell, a girl who developed cerebral palsy because of a botched delivery. (A few pages later, Edwards observes that his "beautiful son," 6 years old, was "born only three months after Jennifer, but at the Salvation Army, I was already coaching him in basketball"). We learn that "Elizabeth and I have vacationed without our kids only once—a three-day trip to Charleston when Wade was thirteen months old."

    Slightly more than midway through the book, Edwards devotes two paragraphs to a description of Wade. At 10 years old, he was "already a fine writer, a nut for the UNC Tar Heels basketball team, and forever asking me questions about the cases I was working on. He was far and away the most fastidious Edwards in the household, and the first among us to master a computer. Wade had a calmness. … It was something more than the levelheadedness I had—there was a bit of a preacher's composure in my son."

    The actual account of Wade's death and its immediate aftermath is very short, not even two full pages. But you see it coming pages before, when Edwards writes: "How could I not be an optimist, and how could I not be happy? My days were so often full of activity aimed at something I knew to be good. I was stubborn, for I thought that with enough work, study, imagination, honesty, and sure goodwill, you could make anything and everything better. Of course I learned that some things can never be made better. Some things can never become right again."

    It's compelling stuff. Wade takes a job as a gofer in Edwards' law firm, and, one summer, father and son climb Mount Kilimanjaro together. In 1996, a Voice of America essay contest names Wade one of its 10 finalists for an essay about Election Day, and the Edwards family heads to Washington, D.C., as Wade's entourage. (This is two years before Edwards' election as senator.) They visit the White House and shake hands with Hillary Clinton. Wade meets North Carolina's senior Sen. Jesse Helms and gets a photo taken of him sitting at his desk. Later, Wade wins another award for a short story, and he says he wants to be a lawyer at his dad's firm.

    On April 4, 1996, a strong wind blows Wade's Jeep Grand Cherokee off I-40 East, on the way to the Edwards family beach house on the Carolina coast. The passenger lives, but Wade doesn't. "Nothing in my life has ever hit me and stripped everything away like my son's death. That moment, those days, belong to our family," Edwards writes. "But because it was and is the most important fact of my life, and because I understand that I am now a public figure, I will say a few things about our son and our loss." After Wade's death, Elizabeth and John establish a foundation in his name, and they receive a touching letter from a student Wade knew in fifth grade. Edwards concludes: "The shards of a broken promise were everywhere: all over our house, on the television and the radio, on the neighborhood streets where he and I had jogged, and in the office I no longer visited. This has not changed in the seven years since Wade died, and I don't ever expect it to change. I do not fight it; it is the undercurrent of my life." Six months after Wade's death, Edwards returns to work.

    In the book's afterword, Edwards semi-apologizes for writing about Wade: "When I began to think about this book, I did not know how much I would say about Wade, or particularly about his death, and I thought it would be best not to say that much about it. But as I attempted to explain my life as an advocate and as a man, I found it impossible not to speak of him. As much as anyone is—as much as my other children, Cate, Emma Claire, and Jack, as much as my parents, my grandmother, and my wife—Wade is who I am." He concludes the book, "I have learned two great lessons—that there will always be heartache and struggle, and that people of strong will can make a difference. One is a sad lesson; the other is inspiring. I choose to be inspired."

              A Browser's Guide to Campaign 2004   

    Here's a quick guide to the good parts of Winning Back America, Howard Dean's campaign book to be published Dec. 3 (complete with a cover picture of the candidate trying his damnedest to look sunny):

    Chapter 1: "I'm a Regular Guy." Dean touches on his family's roots and his childhood in New York City, and he makes passing mention of his Rhode Island prep school, but he says he "really grew up in East Hampton on eastern Long Island." His "idyllic childhood" involved being outdoors, riding bikes, a duck pond, fishing, sailing, and baseball. His dad wouldn't buy him a uniform for his baseball team because he thought it was a waste of money. The chapter concludes, "At heart, I'm a country person."

    Chapter 2: Howard Dean, Farmer. Devoted to Dean's summer jobs as a teenager. Dean writes two sentences about working as a sailing-camp counselor but an entire page about his work on a cattle ranch in Florida. There he earned "agricultural minimum wage," cleared land, dusted crops, and in a yearning-macho voice worthy of Apocalypse Now's Col. Kilgore, he remembers "feeling the cool mist of the herbicide on my bare chest as the plane went over."

    Chapter 3: "Unlike George W. Bush, I Had Black Roommates at Yale." Bush went to Yale, too, but his senior year was Dean's freshman year, 1968. "The gulf between our experiences was much larger, though; it was as if we were a generation apart," Dean writes, referring to the changes wreaked both by "the phenomenon of the sixties" and the increasing diversity of the Yale student body, including more Jews, more public school students, and in 1969, women.

    Chapter 4: Howard Dean, Ski Bum. Dean's post-college years before medical school. He skis in Colorado (living in a cabin "in a little place called Ashcroft"), where he pours concrete and washes dishes to pay the bills. He becomes a teacher by virtue of a strange snap judgment after missing a plane to Bogotá, Colombia: "I've taken many hundreds of flights in my life, and this is the only time that's ever happened. I realized that there was a reason I missed the plane. I cut short my intended trip, went home, and decided to get to work." After teaching for a year, he takes a job on Wall Street. He decides he's too careful with other people's money to be a good broker, and that he doesn't really like New York City.

    Chapter 5: Med School and Judy. Contains one of the more intriguing sentences in the book: "I didn't really get to be a happy person until I went to medical school." Dean's explanation for this is that he didn't work hard enough at Yale, and "If I'm directionless and coasting, I'm not happy." He meets his future wife, Judy Steinberg. He doesn't get into any of his top three choices for his medical residency. The University of Vermont was choice No. 4, and he moves to Burlington in May 1978.

    Chapter 6: Dean Enters Politics. Is Dean a moderate Republican in disguise? He compares himself to his Republican father, a "fiscal conservative" who was "not particularly liberal on social issues, but he wasn't particularly conservative either. Today he would be considered a moderate, business-oriented Republican; he wanted the budget run properly. In that way, I am very much my father's son." Dean on why he's a "pragmatic Democrat": "I was friendly with the younger, more liberal Democrats because they were my age, but I didn't vote with them. I didn't relate to their political sensibilities."

    Chapter 7: The Vermont Statehouse. A woman tells him, "You're going to do really well here, but you've got to get over this chip on your shoulder that tells you to fix somebody's wagon if they cross you."

    Chapter 8: Governor. "Our telephone number remained in the book." Dean cuts marginal tax rates to improve Vermont's economy, but he insists he didn't engage in the "outrageous tax cutting that went on in some of the states." He also cuts spending programs over the objections of liberal Democrats. On one occasion, he visits Congress to talk about health care: "Bob Michel, the House minority leader, was there. He was a wonderful person. Newt Gingrich was there. He's not a wonderful person."

    Chapter 9: More of the Vermont Miracle. Here's Dean's illustration of the "striking difference" between Republicans and Democrats: "When the Democrats controlled the National Governors Association (I was chair of the NGA from 1994 to 1995), we used to fight against our own party when it passed legislation that harmed the states. When the Republicans took over, however, they took orders from the G.O.P. in Washington, with few standing up for the people they represented. … Most Republican governors caved to the right-wing Republican White House because they were fearful; the folks in the White House are more than willing to threaten them."

    Chapter 10: Pre-President Dean. He defends the Bush daughters: "I know that several thousand kids every year get caught with fake IDs." And he defends his wife's decision not to participate in his presidential campaign: "The notion that the wife is going to be dragged along in the wake of her husband's career is something that should have been left behind decades ago." Six sentences on religion, including "I'm a fairly religious person though I don't regularly attend church or temple," "I pray just about every day," and "I also believe that good and evil exist in the world, and I thoroughly disapprove of people who use religion to inflict pain on others."

    Dean's favorite books: All the King's Men, To Kill a Mockingbird, and Ken Kesey's Sometimes a Great Notion; also Barbara Ehrenreich's Nickel and Dimed and David McCullough's Truman ("It is one of the books that has had the most impact on me in the last ten years").

    Dean ranks the presidents: 1) Washington; 2) Lincoln; 3) FDR; 4) a four-way tie between Jefferson, Truman, TR, and LBJ, despite Vietnam. We also learn Dean'